274
FXUS64 KTSA 071121
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Ongoing early morning storms will spread east of the forecast area
near or soon after sunrise. The remainder of the day will be quiet
as weak sfc high pressure settles over the area. Rapid and
substantial moisture return commences overnight as flow responds
to the next approaching wave. The trend in placement for any early
morning storms has been more north of the local forecast area.
This will be monitored as any early day convection could quickly
become severe, however the trend in guidance has been more
northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The strengthening warm frontal zone and deepening sfc low will be
near NE OK / NW AR early Wednesday and mark a zone of increasing
lift within a strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass. The
result will be early storm initiation in or near the forecast area
with a quick transition toward a severe weather threat. Storms
will expand eastward and southward along the advancing cold front
through Wednesday afternoon and evening with severe potential
increasing for areas southeast of Interstate 44. The veered low
level flow and advancing cold front may focus the higher tornado
threat further east of the local region, however big CAPE can do
big things and all hazards will be possible with large hail and
locally damaging winds the more apparent threats at this time.
Additionally, another round of locally heavy rainfall will again
raise flooding concerns.

And then a break from the recent active pattern. Flow aloft become
more northwesterly and sfc high pressure builds into the southern
Plains Friday into Saturday. Dry and mild weather conditions are
expected for several days. Thunderstorm chances return late in the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Brief period of MVFR vsbys/IFR cigs at KRVS early in the TAF
period with VFR elements expected to prevail after 14z. Will
also include a tempo from 12z-14z for MVFR cigs across the AR
sites. VFR elements expected to prevail after 14z for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  83  55 /  10  10  20   0
FSM   86  64  87  60 /  10  10  40  30
MLC   86  66  86  59 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   83  56  81  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   83  60  82  54 /  10  10  60  20
BYV   82  59  82  53 /  10  10  60  20
MKO   83  61  83  55 /  10  10  30  10
MIO   81  59  80  51 /  10  10  50  10
F10   83  62  85  55 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   86  66  85  62 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23