035
FXUS64 KTSA 300243
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
943 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The current forecast remains on track with only slight changes for
the evening update. While current low temps are on the colder side
of guidance, primarily for western forecast zones, clear skies and
calm winds under sfc high pressure should allow for overnight lows
in the 50s. Sfc winds become light out of the south across our
western-most zones later tonight, and this may hold temps slightly
warmer than the rest of the FA. Otherwise, patchy fog may develop
tonight... particularly across SE Oklahoma and NW AR... where dew
point depressions & winds will be the lowest and overlap with the
axis of heavier rainfall from the past few days. The remainder of
the forecast appears to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few showers are bubbling across portions of southeast Oklahoma
in the vicinity of the front that remains stretched across far
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This activity should
shift eastward before sunset along with the movement of an upper
level disturbance. Otherwise, expect a seasonably cool night,
given the influence of surface high pressure in the area. Patchy
fog will be possible once again late tonight and into tomorrow
morning in parts of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas,
considering the position of the surface ridge axis tonight and
existing surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Gusty south to southwest winds will develop tomorrow as the
surface high shifts east and a low pressure system approaches from
the west. Expect above normal temperatures tomorrow. The front
associated with the low pressure will approach the Oklahoma border
tomorrow afternoon and evening, providing a potential focus for
thunderstorms in parts of northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and
evening. Ample instability is forecast northwest of I-44 by mid
to late afternoon, although a cap may hinder development this far
south during the afternoon. An expected thunderstorm complex in
Kansas may drop southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma,
especially toward Wednesday morning hence slightly higher POPs in
the evening and overnight, extending into Wednesday morning as
well. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop well to the west
along the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening, but are likely
to diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma. Into Wednesday and
Wednesday night, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop along the front near the Kansas border and also in
southeast Oklahoma in response to a weak disturbance and
increasing theta-e advection.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms remain on track for
Thursday and into Thursday night in advance of a cold front moving
through the area. Heavy rain appears likely with these storms
given the forecast precipitable water values, with already
saturated grounds favoring potential for flooding. A Flood Watch
may be needed in the next day or two if these signals continue. In
addition to the heavy rain and flooding potential, severe weather
may accompany them as well, with forecast instability favoring
portions of southeast Oklahoma.

Uncertainty exists regarding whether the front will completely
clear the area or not, leading to low shower and thunderstorm
chances persisting into Friday. The front should lift northward
Friday night and into Saturday, bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. A repeat of the above may occur Sunday and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Light winds overnight will also patchy fog to again develop with
flight impacts more likely across NW AR terminals which remain
nearer the sfc ridge axis through sunrise. Further west southerly
winds are expected to return late tonight making fog impacts more
uncertain. Winds increase through the day area wide with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  56  86  64 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   82  58  87  62 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   82  58  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   79  52  86  60 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   79  53  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   76  53  83  60 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   79  55  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   77  53  82  61 /   0   0   0  30
F10   80  56  84  63 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   81  58  82  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07