692
FXUS64 KTSA 051747
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A soggy and wet morning continues across much of eastern Oklahoma
and west/northwest Arkansas. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery
shows the culprit mid-level shortwave trough and its axis just
west of the forecast area. As such, widespread light to moderate
rainfall, with pockets of heavy to very heavy rainfall, will
persist into the afternoon. Rainfall rates 2 to 3 inches/hour will
be possible and have been observed with the heavier showers and
thunderstorms that occurred earlier this morning. Modest
instability over the region will also keep a chance for strong
thunderstorms that may produce small hail and gusty winds. As the
trough axis advances eastward across the area this afternoon, so
will the heavy rainfall/higher rainfall rates, with the heaviest
rain shifting east of the forecast area by mid- late afternoon.
Until then, flooding and flash flooding will be the main concerns
for the day. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire
forecast area until 7 PM this evening.

Overall, the short term forecast remains on track, with only minor
adjustments made thus far to the forecast grids. Afternoon highs
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Lingering rain across the NW AR zones should end by 06z, leaving
the forecast area dry for rest of tonight much of the daytime on
Monday, though some model data hints at some elevated shower and
storm potential Monday afternoon across SE OK and NW AR, so will
keep a low Pop in those areas. Focus turns to storms that develop
along the dryline to west later Monday afternoon in conjunction
with an upper trough that lifts from the mountain west region into
the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Potential for some
significant severe weather will exist with storms that northeast
Oklahoma late in the afternoon or more likely Monday evening.
Greatest coverage/higher end severe potential continues to favor
NE OK and NW AR Monday eve/night. Despite lower storm coverage
roughly from I-40 to the south, the environment will remain
supportive of a higher end severe threat with any storm that
develops. Coverage will diminish late Monday night and Tuesday
morning, leaving most much of the area in a lull. However, will
keep though low PoPs across the eastern sections of the forecast
area Tuesday and Tuesday night. An uptick in storm chances will
come Wednesday with a cold front that enters the area, with some
severe potential in place ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon
and evening. The boundary will push through the area by Thursday
morning. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area starting
Thursday. An upper trough in NW flow aloft will clip the area
Friday, and may produce a few showers across NE OK and NW AR,
however will leave PoPs out for now. Otherwise, settled conditions
are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A bit of a messy aviation forecast through the next 18 to 24
hours. Currently, latest obs around the region show a mixture of
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys, mostly due to light to moderate (and
occasionally heavy) rainfall occurring across the region.
Thunderstorm activity should wind down by mid-late afternoon,
west-to-east, but low cigs will likely hold strong thereafter.
Forecast guidance suggests light fog and periodic LIFR ceilings
developing by or just after midnight tonight. Brief, patchy dense
fog may develop at a couple of sites, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Both cigs and vsbys
should improve after sunrise and into midday Monday, with
south/south-southeast winds prevailing.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  59  81  59 / 100  10  30  80
FSM   73  63  83  69 / 100  30  30  70
MLC   73  60  83  66 / 100  10  30  60
BVO   69  56  80  54 /  90  10  40  80
FYV   73  58  81  62 / 100  40  30  80
BYV   70  60  80  64 / 100  50  30  80
MKO   69  60  80  65 / 100  10  30  80
MIO   69  58  80  61 / 100  30  20  90
F10   70  59  80  62 / 100  10  30  80
HHW   72  63  80  68 / 100  10  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67