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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KTWC 021002
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
302 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer daytime temperatures today and tomorrow before
another storm system brings a chance of showers Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning. Thereafter, dry and warmer Friday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft will result in well
above normal high temperatures today and Wednesday. Expect some
gusty easterly winds through mid afternoon today in spots. These
well above normal high temperatures will briefly come to an end on
Thursday as the next system passes through the region Wednesday
evening into early Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will develop as
this system moves closer on Wednesday afternoon. These strong winds
in combination with dry conditions and a high fire danger rating had
prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday in the
lower deserts. Please refer to the Fire Weather section in this
product for more details. Chances of showers will increase from west
to east Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Ensemble members also
exhibited light precipitation amounts with this system. The GEFS
ensemble members were also in agreement with this system exiting the
area Thursday afternoon with a ridge of high pressure aloft building
in behind it on Friday. This ridging will result in another rapid
warm up in high temperatures Friday into the weekend. For example,
the latest NBM consensus high temperature forecast for Tucson on
Thursday was 67 degrees followed by a 55 percent chance of the high
reaching and exceeding 80 degrees on Friday. The probability of 80
degrees or warmer on Saturday in Tucson was 80 percent. That said,
expect warmer and dry conditions Friday through the weekend.
Ensembles hint at another weather system possibly affecting
southeast Arizona`s weather early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
Clear skies this morning with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL the
remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-20 kts and
gusts up to 30 kts thru 02/21Z, then gradually diminishing to 5-10
kts by 03/03Z and continuing into early Wednesday morning. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and breezy to locally windy easterly
winds through early this afternoon. A weather system will result in
gusty south to southwest winds late Wednesday morning through
afternoon, with the strongest winds from Tucson westward. These
strong winds combined with low relative humidities has prompted the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch from Tucson westward late Wednesday
morning through afternoon. As this system passes through, there will
be a slight chance of showers Wednesday evening into early Thursday,
mainly north of Tucson. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures
return by Friday and continue into early next week. Daytime high
temperatures over the upcoming weekend will be 7-10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
  afternoon for AZZ150.

&&

$$


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