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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KTWC 190916
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Mon Apr 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will depart today with any lingering
showers along the New Mexico border ending early this morning.
Otherwise, dry conditions this week with a return to above normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with some increase in afternoon
winds by Wednesday and Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected for the end of the work week before heating up next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows an upper low
across far northern Sonora. Skies are clear from Tucson westward
with partly to mostly cloudy skies to the south and east of Tucson.
KEMX radar depicts a few light showers across Cochise County which
will quickly diminish during the early morning hours as the upper
low ejects eastward and drier air quickly moves in from the west.
That will set the stage for a nice Monday with mostly sunny skies
and near normal temperatures.

Expect a quick return to above normal temperatures Tuesday as
heights increase with some modest shortwave ridging traversing
through the westerly flow.

For Wednesday, an upper low is expected move eastward from the
Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin. This will result in a tightening
of the pressure gradient resulting in breezy to windy conditions
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures remain well above normal.

A disturbance is expected to reinforce the trough to our west on
Thursday with the trough axis moving through our area Thursday night
or Friday. Afternoon breezes will continue Thursday afternoon with
near a cool down to near normal temperatures. As this system moves
through, we can`t rule out a shower or two across the White
Mountains Friday but otherwise dry conditions expected. Thereafter,
ridging returns for the weekend with a return to hotter
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
Expect SCT-BKN clouds 10k-15k MSL from KTUS eastward with a slight
chance of a very light shower near the NM border, then becoming FEW-
SCT clouds 10k-15k MSL later this morning and SKC this evening.
Easterly SFC winds 7-12 kts through 17Z then gradually becoming NWly
8-12 kts this afternoon. Wind then becoming light and variable after
20/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There may be a lingering very light shower near the
NM border early this morning otherwise dry through the remainder of
the week. Light winds expected today and Tuesday then a passing
weather system will produce windier conditions Wednesday and
Thursday with very low humidity levels. There is potential that some
areas of critical fire weather conditions could occur across
portions of SE Arizona Wednesday afternoon affecting several fire
weather zones.  Another borderline situation at this time.  Elevated
to isolated critical conditions are possible again on Thursday. Then
remaining dry through the weekend with lighter winds.


&&

.CLIMATE...32 years ago this week, an April heat wave brought the
earliest 1st 100 degree high (April 19) and the hottest April
high (104 degrees on the 20th and 21st) to Tucson. Additional
sites across southeast Arizona recorded their all-time April
record highs on either the 20th or 21st.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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