Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KTWC 021002 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 302 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer daytime temperatures today and tomorrow before another storm system brings a chance of showers Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Thereafter, dry and warmer Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft will result in well above normal high temperatures today and Wednesday. Expect some gusty easterly winds through mid afternoon today in spots. These well above normal high temperatures will briefly come to an end on Thursday as the next system passes through the region Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will develop as this system moves closer on Wednesday afternoon. These strong winds in combination with dry conditions and a high fire danger rating had prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday in the lower deserts. Please refer to the Fire Weather section in this product for more details. Chances of showers will increase from west to east Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Ensemble members also exhibited light precipitation amounts with this system. The GEFS ensemble members were also in agreement with this system exiting the area Thursday afternoon with a ridge of high pressure aloft building in behind it on Friday. This ridging will result in another rapid warm up in high temperatures Friday into the weekend. For example, the latest NBM consensus high temperature forecast for Tucson on Thursday was 67 degrees followed by a 55 percent chance of the high reaching and exceeding 80 degrees on Friday. The probability of 80 degrees or warmer on Saturday in Tucson was 80 percent. That said, expect warmer and dry conditions Friday through the weekend. Ensembles hint at another weather system possibly affecting southeast Arizona`s weather early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z. Clear skies this morning with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts thru 02/21Z, then gradually diminishing to 5-10 kts by 03/03Z and continuing into early Wednesday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and breezy to locally windy easterly winds through early this afternoon. A weather system will result in gusty south to southwest winds late Wednesday morning through afternoon, with the strongest winds from Tucson westward. These strong winds combined with low relative humidities has prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch from Tucson westward late Wednesday morning through afternoon. As this system passes through, there will be a slight chance of showers Wednesday evening into early Thursday, mainly north of Tucson. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return by Friday and continue into early next week. Daytime high temperatures over the upcoming weekend will be 7-10 degrees above normal. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for AZZ150. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

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