Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KTWC 190916 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 217 AM MST Mon Apr 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will depart today with any lingering showers along the New Mexico border ending early this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions this week with a return to above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with some increase in afternoon winds by Wednesday and Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the end of the work week before heating up next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows an upper low across far northern Sonora. Skies are clear from Tucson westward with partly to mostly cloudy skies to the south and east of Tucson. KEMX radar depicts a few light showers across Cochise County which will quickly diminish during the early morning hours as the upper low ejects eastward and drier air quickly moves in from the west. That will set the stage for a nice Monday with mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures. Expect a quick return to above normal temperatures Tuesday as heights increase with some modest shortwave ridging traversing through the westerly flow. For Wednesday, an upper low is expected move eastward from the Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin. This will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient resulting in breezy to windy conditions Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures remain well above normal. A disturbance is expected to reinforce the trough to our west on Thursday with the trough axis moving through our area Thursday night or Friday. Afternoon breezes will continue Thursday afternoon with near a cool down to near normal temperatures. As this system moves through, we can`t rule out a shower or two across the White Mountains Friday but otherwise dry conditions expected. Thereafter, ridging returns for the weekend with a return to hotter temperatures. && .AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z. Expect SCT-BKN clouds 10k-15k MSL from KTUS eastward with a slight chance of a very light shower near the NM border, then becoming FEW- SCT clouds 10k-15k MSL later this morning and SKC this evening. Easterly SFC winds 7-12 kts through 17Z then gradually becoming NWly 8-12 kts this afternoon. Wind then becoming light and variable after 20/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...There may be a lingering very light shower near the NM border early this morning otherwise dry through the remainder of the week. Light winds expected today and Tuesday then a passing weather system will produce windier conditions Wednesday and Thursday with very low humidity levels. There is potential that some areas of critical fire weather conditions could occur across portions of SE Arizona Wednesday afternoon affecting several fire weather zones. Another borderline situation at this time. Elevated to isolated critical conditions are possible again on Thursday. Then remaining dry through the weekend with lighter winds. && .CLIMATE...32 years ago this week, an April heat wave brought the earliest 1st 100 degree high (April 19) and the hottest April high (104 degrees on the 20th and 21st) to Tucson. Additional sites across southeast Arizona recorded their all-time April record highs on either the 20th or 21st. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.