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319
FXUS65 KVEF 182047
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
145 PM PDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with a warming trend will occur through
Tuesday. A weak system will move through the region on Wednesday and
Thursday bringing isolated light showers, a slight cooling trend and
breezy winds. Temperatures will warm again heading into next weekend
under a broad area of high pressure.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday.

No significant weather impacts are expected this week across the
region. Winds will decrease tonight into Monday morning as a low
pressure system over Arizona slides into Northern Mexico. A
shortwave trough dropping down over Idaho and Utah will produce
northwest winds 15-25 mph primarily across central Nye and Lincoln
counties Monday afternoon while the rest of the region should see
speeds generally less than 15 mph along with high temperatures 6-8
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will be similar Tuesday but
southwest breezes will pick up ahead of a shortwave trough digging
into northern California and Nevada. This system is forecast to
slowly slide down over southern Nevada Wednesday. Limited moisture
will accompany this trough and will lead to 20-30 percent chances
for showers over the higher terrain of south central Nevada as well
as the southern Sierra/White Mountains Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will also begin pulling back...especially over Inyo
County and near central Nevada where highs will drop 6-8 degrees.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

Additional energy diving into central and southern California
Thursday which will reinforce the mean trough over our region and
lead to temperatures continuing their downward trend. Slight chances
for showers will be confined to the higher mountains in the
afternoon then the trough is forecast to move away to the east
Thursday night.

Medium range ensembles are in good agreement that a ridge of high
pressure will migrate over the western states Friday and Saturday
leading to warm and dry conditions. Southwest breezes will likely
increase across much of the region Sunday as the ridge axis moves
over the Rockies and a deep trough over the Pacific approaches the
West Coast. We will be keeping an eye on this system as model
ensembles are beginning to show it could direct substantial moisture
into California and the southwest states early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Northeast winds gusting to
around 20KT will continue through the evening. Moderate confidence
that gusts will drop off around 00Z as winds become more east and
dissipate to below 10KT. Sometime between 03Z to 06Z, typical
overnight southwest winds should return with light winds continuing
through Monday morning. Lower confidence in the wind forecast for
Monday afternoon as a southwest push of winds over 10KT are possible
after 21Z but unsure if they will make it to the terminal. If they
do not make it to the airport, east winds less than 8KT will persist
through the afternoon. Clear skies will continue through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy north to northeast winds will dissipate this
evening. In he Colorado River Valley, elevated north winds will
persist through the part of the night before they drop off by Monday
morning. Elsewhere, light winds that follow typical wind patterns
are expected and will continue through Monday morning. Winds will be
lighter across the region Monday, with clear skies expected through
the period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Nickerson

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