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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KVEF 010302
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
702 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with
temperatures climbing near or slightly above normal for early March.
A low pressure system will bring chances for rain and high elevation
snow to the Mojave Desert and Lincoln County Wednesday afternoon
through early Thursday morning. High pressure will build in
afterward, potentially bringing the warmest temperatures since
November for next weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...No significant changes were made to the overnight
forecast, with light winds quiet weather expected through Monday
morning. It will be another chilly night, with low temperatures
comparable or slightly cooler than last night.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...158 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021
.DISCUSSION...Winds in the Colorado River Valley underachieved
today, so cancelled the Wind Advisory early. Monday and Tuesday will
see quiet weather with a warming trend, but then things get a bit
interesting. The trough which was along 160W yesterday afternoon was
along about 142W this afternoon, and is expected to split tonight
into Monday. The southern piece will form a closed low which dives
southwest of 30N 135W Tuesday before making the turn and heading
east. There are a few important differences from yesterday to today.
There is better agreement that this low will tap into a finger of
moisture coming north from the subtropics, there is better agreement
that the low will track far enough north to affect our area, and the
low is also forecast to track more slowly than in previous runs. All
this together implies that rain chances will begin in the far
southern parts of our area Wednesday afternoon, spread across the
southeastern half to two thirds of our area Wednesday night, and
then exit to the east Thursday morning. Forecast rain amounts have
increased to one tenth to one quarter inch in the lower deserts,
with half an inch to an inch in the mountains, especially in Mohave
County. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Wednesday night, with
flash flooding unlikely except in the most susceptible areas such as
narrow canyons, poorly drained urban areas, and recent burn scars.
Due to the subtropical tap, snow levels will be high, most likely at
or above 6000 feet during the heaviest precip, and temperatures will
drop ten degrees or less from Wednesday to Thursday. Thereafter,
building high pressure ahead of the next trough in the eastern
Pacific will bring even warmer temps, and over the weekend KLAS
could see the first 75 degree high since November 18th.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are expected to settle to a
northeast direction between 020-050 for the remainder of the
afternoon, but may briefly flop to the northwest at times through
22z. Wind speeds have decreased to around 10 kts and are expected to
remain around 10-12 kts into this evening. After sunset, look for
winds to become southwest around 6 kts and remain that overnight.
Much lighter winds Monday with speeds generally 7 kts or less. Wind
direction will be variable to northeast, especially between 19z-00z.
Only a few high clouds expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...North to northeast winds expected through the remainder
of the afternoon with speeds generally decreasing to around 10-15
kts. Wind speeds will remain higher down the Colorado River this
afternoon with occasional gusts around 30 kts. Those winds will also
gradually diminish late this afternoon. Lighter winds expected
areawide Monday with speeds generally around 10 kts or less. No
operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF
period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Gorelow

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