Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 010302 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 702 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures climbing near or slightly above normal for early March. A low pressure system will bring chances for rain and high elevation snow to the Mojave Desert and Lincoln County Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. High pressure will build in afterward, potentially bringing the warmest temperatures since November for next weekend. && .UPDATE...No significant changes were made to the overnight forecast, with light winds quiet weather expected through Monday morning. It will be another chilly night, with low temperatures comparable or slightly cooler than last night. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...158 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021 .DISCUSSION...Winds in the Colorado River Valley underachieved today, so cancelled the Wind Advisory early. Monday and Tuesday will see quiet weather with a warming trend, but then things get a bit interesting. The trough which was along 160W yesterday afternoon was along about 142W this afternoon, and is expected to split tonight into Monday. The southern piece will form a closed low which dives southwest of 30N 135W Tuesday before making the turn and heading east. There are a few important differences from yesterday to today. There is better agreement that this low will tap into a finger of moisture coming north from the subtropics, there is better agreement that the low will track far enough north to affect our area, and the low is also forecast to track more slowly than in previous runs. All this together implies that rain chances will begin in the far southern parts of our area Wednesday afternoon, spread across the southeastern half to two thirds of our area Wednesday night, and then exit to the east Thursday morning. Forecast rain amounts have increased to one tenth to one quarter inch in the lower deserts, with half an inch to an inch in the mountains, especially in Mohave County. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Wednesday night, with flash flooding unlikely except in the most susceptible areas such as narrow canyons, poorly drained urban areas, and recent burn scars. Due to the subtropical tap, snow levels will be high, most likely at or above 6000 feet during the heaviest precip, and temperatures will drop ten degrees or less from Wednesday to Thursday. Thereafter, building high pressure ahead of the next trough in the eastern Pacific will bring even warmer temps, and over the weekend KLAS could see the first 75 degree high since November 18th. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are expected to settle to a northeast direction between 020-050 for the remainder of the afternoon, but may briefly flop to the northwest at times through 22z. Wind speeds have decreased to around 10 kts and are expected to remain around 10-12 kts into this evening. After sunset, look for winds to become southwest around 6 kts and remain that overnight. Much lighter winds Monday with speeds generally 7 kts or less. Wind direction will be variable to northeast, especially between 19z-00z. Only a few high clouds expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...North to northeast winds expected through the remainder of the afternoon with speeds generally decreasing to around 10-15 kts. Wind speeds will remain higher down the Colorado River this afternoon with occasional gusts around 30 kts. Those winds will also gradually diminish late this afternoon. Lighter winds expected areawide Monday with speeds generally around 10 kts or less. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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