Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000 FXUS63 KABR 161727 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms have exited to the east this morning. Other than a minor tweak to this hour`s pop grid to remove any weather mention, the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Precipitation remains the main forecast challenge in the short term. For this morning a decent looking s/w will move across the region along with a moderate LLJ/WAA to produce isold/sct showers and thunderstorms. Activity over NC SD should advect eastward across the northern CWA this morning before moving into MN. Severe risk looks relatively low given most recent data from SPC meso page. Gusty winds might be the main threat given abundance of dry air below the cloud base. By this afternoon diffuse frontal boundary pushes mainly south of the CWA. With afternoon heating, this boundary may help fire off a couple storms, so have slight chance pops on the outer edges of the southern CWA into tonight. Late tonight LLJ kicks back in again focusing more on the southern/eastern CWA. Some models are indicating overnight elevated activity so have included this in the grids. On Friday southerly breezes will usher in much higher LLM via dewpoints approaching 70F by afternoon. Meanwhile, the higher dewpoints and very warm air ahead of an advancing front will lead to strong instability by late afternoon/evening. A mid-level s/w approaches from the west toward evening, with probably enough lift to spark off intense convection despite capping warm air aloft. These storms will move across the NC/NE part of SD during the evening hours with severe weather a distinct possibly, especially given strongly unstable airmass, as well as moderate to strong LL and deep layer shear. All severe modes look possible, but especially strong winds as stronger winds aloft advect into the region during the evening hours, leading to an MCS over the northern/eastern CWA. Lastly, temperatures today will be warm, but even warmer come Friday ahead of the cool front. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Starting out the period, shortwave energy will be propagating through the region. Thunderstorms, aided by said shortwave energy and a developing low level jet, will likely be ongoing either in the northern portions of the CWA, or just to the northwest in south central North Dakota. These thunderstorms are expected to progress quickly to the southeast through the region and be out of the forecast area before morning. Ample MLCAPE values will be in place from the day`s high heat and humidity and severe weather, especially in the form of strong winds, is possible for any storms that do develop. A cold frontal passage Saturday will help dry things out thus keeping heat index values at a much more reasonable level compared to the prior day. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s before dropping into the 80s for the remainder of the weekend and into the first half of next week. Additional chances of precipitation are possible Saturday night through the first half of next week. Models diverge quite a bit on timing and location of any storms, but one of the better chances looks to be Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning along passing shortwave energy. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
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&& .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.