000
FXAK69 PAFG 021455
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
555 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough over the Interior will produce areas of light snow
across the region into this evening. Elsewhere, snow and gusty
winds across the YK Delta and snow over portions of the Western
Interior, primarily south of the Yukon River, will continue today
as a front rotates north while the main low over the Bering dives
southeast towards Bristol Bay and then into the Gulf of Alaska
this evening. North winds from the the Southern Chukchi south
through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island will intensify
today, producing widespread areas of blowing snow and dangerously
cold wind chills for portions of the West Coast into Wednesday.

A strong storm will bring blizzard conditions and high winds to
St. Lawrence Island late Wednesday night, and to the West Coast
of Alaska Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface, models are in good agreement with the placement
and strength of major synoptic features. A broad area of low
pressure with a 975 mb low located near Nunivak Island and another
977 mb low just southeast of St. Paul Island will dive southeast
through Bristol Bay and into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday morning.
A front associated with this system will rotate north over the YK
Delta and Southern Western Interior through this afternoon,
weakening this evening. Ridging will build south into the Bering
Sea from a 1028 mb over Eastern Russia tonight through most of
Wednesday, bringing relatively quiet weather conditions across
most of Northern Alaska. This is ahead of strong 965 mb low moving
into the Gulf of Anadyr Thursday, with a front extending south
through the Bering Sea. This front will reach St. Lawrence Island
late Wednesday night, then the West Coast by Thursday afternoon,
and into the Western Interior late Thursday night.

Aloft, at 500 mb, models initialize well with a 498 decameter low
near Nunivak Island drifting southeast into the Gulf of Alaska
tonight, creating a deep longwave trough that encompasses Northern
Alaska Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, ridging will build over the
Bering Wednesday and then move east across the Western Interior
into the Central Interior late Thursday evening. A deep 469
decameter low west of the Gulf of Anadyr will push a trough across
the Bering Sea and into the West Coast by Thursday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cold temperatures continue across the region this morning, where
many locations have dipped once again into the 30s below. This
coupled with stronger winds will continue to produce dangerously
cold wind chill values into the 50s below along portions of the
Chukchi Sea Coast into Wednesday. A weak shortwave will rotate
northwest along the Beaufort Coast this afternoon, bringing
increasing chances of light snow into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will build Wednesday through Thursday
across the region, kick starting a warming trend that will bring
an end to the dangerously cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front sliding east across the YK Delta this morning continues
to bring snow and areas of blowing snow to the area, primarily
south of the Yukon River, and across the southern portions of the
Western Interior. As the day progresses, look for the snow to
taper off this afternoon across the YK Delta while lingering
across the Southern Western Interior into Wednesday morning,
bringing generally 1 to 3 inches. Northerly winds will increase
along the West Coast, from the Southern Chukchi south through the
Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island, this afternoon. These winds
will bring widespread areas of blowing snow and continued low wind
chill values across portions of the the Chukchi Sea Coast, the
Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island into early Wednesday.
Ridging builds in Wednesday, pushing east into the Western
Interior late in the evening, ahead of the next system to impact
the region. A strong front will push through the Bering Sea,
reaching St. Lawrence Island late Wednesday night, then to the
West Coast Thursday afternoon, and into the Western Interior
Thursday night. This front will bring strong southeasterly winds
accompanied by heavy snow and blowing snow, with the worst
conditions impacting St. Lawrence Island first for Thursday and
then the West Coast Thursday afternoon, producing potential
blizzard conditions.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Satellite imagery this morning depicts vast cloud cover across the
area this morning, along with areas of light snow as a weak trough
lies overhead. Snow chances will taper off west to east across the
region today into tonight, expect generally less than 1 inch of
snowfall today. Another weak shortwave early Wednesday will
increase chances for a second round of snow for the Central
Interior, primarily southwest of Fairbanks, with generally less
than 1 inch of snow. A tight pressure gradient will develop across
the Alaska Range Wednesday, producing gusty northerly gap winds.
By Thursday, quiet weather conditions will ensue as ridging builds
east across the region ahead of the next system that moves into
the Central Interior at the tail end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Friday, a front moving across the
Western Interior stalls out over the Central Interior as it hits
a ridge that is in place along the ALCAN Border, which produces
southerly flow over the Alaska Range, keeping precipitation
chances primarily west of Fairbanks through Saturday. Another
system moving through the Bering will move onshore along the West
Coast Sunday and then into the Western Interior Monday. There is
some uncertainty with this second system as models diverge on
solutions. Southerly flow aloft will aid in continuation of
moderating temperatures in the extended period as it brings surges
of warmer air that spreads across most of Northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.

&&

$$

RZ MAR 21