000
FXAK69 PAFG 161202
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues today for the North Slope and the
Central and Eastern Interior as fronts move across bringing rounds
of precip. Quiet conditions expected across the West Coast and
Western Interior.Temperatures will cool in the north while
temperatures south of the Brooks Range will generally warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, an upper level low is anchored near the North Pole
with a trough extending south to an upper level low in the Gulf
of Alaska. A shortwave over the northwest Arctic Coast will
continue to rotate eastward through the flow. An upper level ridge
is centered over the western Aleutians with the axis stretching
north across Chukotka. As the upper level low near the North Pole
moves eastward, dragging the trough with it, ridging will build
eastward to the West Coast by Wednesday.

At the surface, a 997 mb low is near the North Pole with a front
extending southwest to the eastern Arctic coast. A 1012 mb low is
over Richards Island (east of Mackenzie Bay). A broad area of
high pressure stretches from a 1032 mb high over the Western
Aleutians through the Bering Strait to a 1028 mb high located
between Wrangel Island and Point Lay. A 996 mb low is in the Gulf
of Alaska. The low near the North Pole and associated front will
shift eastward as the high between Wrangel Island and Point Lay
moves east to be centered 100 nm N of Utqiagvik by Tuesday
morning. The high strengthens to 1032 mb as it moves to be 200 nm
N of Demarcation Point by Wednesday afternoon. The high over the
Western Aleutians slides east through Wednesday to be centered
over the eastern Bering. The low in the Gulf of Alaska will send a
front north and west across the Yukon and into the Interior.

Models...
The 16/00Z model solutions initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS
and surface obs and the 06Z surface obs. Agreement amongst the
model solutions continues to be good through the short term, with
models handling the current synoptic set up well. Largest
differences between model solutions continues to be with the
precip associated with the front/energy moving northwest out of
the Gulf of Alaska and the Yukon. Opted to go with a general blend
of models to account for the spread.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front continues to march across the Arctic Coast today bringing
increased northerly winds, cloudy skies, and snow chances. Ahead
of the front areas of fog (some dense) have developed. Visibility
is expected to improve later this morning. Snow accumulations
generally an inch or less, except north of the Eastern Brooks
Range, where up to 2 inches are possible. Behind the front as high
pressure builds in, quieter weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, as skies clear, snow chances taper off, and winds shift
to the east across the region Tuesday, and then to the southeast
Tuesday night for the Western Arctic Coast. Cooler temperatures
anticipated today and Tuesday as colder air moves in. High
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s from Deadhorse
west, and in the upper 20s into the 30s east of Deadhorse and
south across the eastern Arctic Plains on Monday, and in the upper
teens to mid 20s across much of the region on Tuesday.
Temperatures begin to warm on Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet conditions in store for the region for the next several days
as high pressure builds in from the west. Clearing skies expected
and little in the way of precip through Tuesday. Northerly winds
through the Bering Strait and along the West Coast diminish today,
with winds generally less than 15 mph by Tuesday. The northerly
winds bring slightly cooler air in today, resulting in high
temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, most notable
along the Chukchi Sea Coast and far western Seward Peninsula,
where high temperatures will top out in the upper 20s to lower
30s. Elsewhere along the coast, temperatures will top out in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Inland highs will be in the mid 40s to mid
50s. Temperatures warm a couple of degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A weakening front continues to slowly trek westward across the
Interior today with showers accompanying it. This shower activity
will diminish this evening as the front decays. Another front
will move northwest out the Gulf of Alaska and the Yukon today
through Tuesday, bringing another round of showers, primarily to
the southeast Interior and eastern Alaska Range. An isolated
thunderstorm or two is not out of the question this afternoon
along and east of a line from Eagle to Tok to the Canadian border.
Once again, after an overnight lull, north to northeast winds
will increase to the 10 to 15 mph range this morning across
Interior hills and summits and continue through Tuesday. High
temperatures to day largely in the upper 40s to mid 50s (Warmest
in the Yukon Flats), with cooler temperatures of lower 30s to
lower 40s in the southeastern Brooks Range. Temperatures trend
upwards Tuesday and Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
At the beginning of the extended period on Thursday, model solutions
have an upper level ridge trying to build eastward across
mainland Alaska. This would result in a period of warmer and drier
conditions. Confidence in this solution is wavering, as ensembles
would keep the ridge further west, where as the deterministics
(with the exception of the 06Z GFS) push the ridge much further
inland. Models do bring a trough south of the high Arctic and over
the Arctic Coast Friday and have the trough dive south across
northern Alaska over the weekend (though this could be sooner if
the ridge remains further west). This would bring an end to the
warming trend and cooler temperatures would return.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns at this time. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon along and east of a line from Eagle to Tok to the
Canadian border as a front moves westward during peak heating.
Warmer and drier conditions expected through midweek as ridging
builds in, but the warm up is temporary, as a trough diving south
out of the Arctic, brings another round of cooler temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers in the Interior continue to run high at or around
bankfull. High temperatures will gradually warm through the week,
once again increasing the melting process of the remaining
snowpack. Conditions can change rapidly during breakup, so be
alert to changing conditions. For the latest river information go
to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

$$

EB MAY 22