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076
FXAK67 PAJK 211343
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
543 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure over the northern Gulf is slowly
creeping it`s way eastward toward the region which will continue
to prompt rain through the region Saturday. While the heaviest of
rainfall has ended, many locations can still anticipate at least
another tenth to quarter of an inch of rain with some getting as
much as an additional half inch. The heavy rain has prompted a few
responses on area creeks, streams and rivers, most notably with
the Taiya near Skagway currently being in moderate flood stage.
The expectation is that this river will crest Saturday morning and
drop below flood stage before the end of the day.

A front that has made its way through most of the region that
caused significant winds yesterday is still pushing through the
southern panhandle as of Saturday morning. Many locations saw
decreasing winds during the overnight hours with areas where the
front is still passing through holding on to these higher speeds.
Also of note is that a strong pressure gradient through Lynn Canal
is also channeling some stronger winds through there and into
Skagway and Haines. For the most part, these locations still being
impacted by wind should see the speeds drop off over the course
of the day.

While not completely dry, many should see a break in the rain for
Sunday before our next system begins it`s charge toward the
region from the southwest. This system will begin bringing gale
force winds to the open water areas and potentially to zone 52 by
the end of the short term forecast period. Also likely is that the
first push of precip from this system will be moving in late
Sunday night/early Monday morning.


.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/
Models still casting about with system coming in for Mon-Tue
period. Does look fairly energetic initially, but with upper jet
dipping S of the area Mon, think the front that will come onshore
will be weakening. Still, may have a low pressure wave or two to
deal with during that time frame. Decided against changing the
Mon-Wed time frame to allow for better model agreement on
placement of potential significant low pressure waves.

After that, models agree that ridging will build over the area,
and this should diminish precip threat. May have a shortwave or
two that might drop SE through the area, which could enhance winds
and bring clouds in. Could have a burst of stronger northerly
winds through the inner channels Thu/Fri than current forecast is
showing. Later forecasts can adjust this as needed. Ended up using
WPC to handle Thu onward to show more low level northerly flow.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ026.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ018.
     Areal Flood Warning until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

$$

JDR/RWT

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