Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000
FXAK67 PAJK 152245
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Dry weather prevails across the panhandle as
clearing skies take hold. A building ridge will see strong diurnal
temperature swings, with high temperatures climbing into the 50s,
and low temperatures dropping below freezing across much of the
area. Prevailing NW flow across the inner channels will be
interrupted during the afternoon hours on Tuesday as sea breeze
influence attempts to counteract the synoptic pattern. Meanwhile,
the flow pattern over the Gulf will switch to SE through Tuesday
night, though the potential does exist for marine layer formation
during the overnight hours on Monday.

Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. Some adjustments
to winds for sea breeze influences, along with adding in fog
across some additional areas of the panhandle through the
overnight hours. Also increased high temperatures a bit above some
of the guidance for Tuesday, given strong diurnal heating, while
decreasing the low temperatures given the lack of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...AK Gulf 500 mb high
pressure ridge will have shifted to the east as a low drops down
over the far western AK Gulf. This pattern will remain until the
weekend when the blocking ridge may break down allowing the mid
level trough to track over the area. At the surface dry weather with
clear skies continue until at least Saturday before the front
associated with a surface low over the Western Gulf may track in.
Ensemble blends and operational models don`t have a solid signal on
the timing but keep the general pattern shift. Warm day times highs,
5 to as much as 10 degrees above normal for the middle of April, and
cool nights with diurnal temperature ranges of 20 degrees or more
last until the end of the week due to the clear skies. While the
front will be mainly offshore later in the week with near small
craft winds and building seas over the eastern gulf the pressure
gradient will orient with increase inner channel winds to 15 to 20
kt.

&&

.AVIATION.../00z issuance/...VFR conditions will broadly continue
for the next 24 hours with aloft ridging and high pressure at the
surface keeping most moisture out of the panhandle. Temperatures
are going to drop rather abruptly tonight which, for the southern
panhandle, will generate fog. Expect similar areas as last night
to be inundated once again with areas of fog, dropping conditions
to possibly LIFR for VIS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NC

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