Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000
FXAK67 PAJK 062235
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/ The unsettled weather
pattern continues in the short term. A low pressures system is
moving into the eastern gulf and will continue to move north
through tonight. This low will weaken throughout the day Friday
and is expected to fade out completely by Friday night. Then on
Saturday, a front will move northward, bringing with it more rain
and wind.

The on-and-off rain activity looks to stay on the lighter side
with most areas getting up to a half inch of rain tonight through
Saturday but there will be isolated spots getting a little more.
Agreement among QPF ensemble averages supports this.

The winds should weaken tonight for the central and northern
Panhandle as the pressure gradient lightens up. The southern
areas, near Prince of Wales Island, wont see the winds really
lighten up until Friday due to the center of the low still
lingering just off shore. But as the low weakens entirely, the
winds should decrease through Friday. Then as the next front
approaches on Saturday, coastal winds should pick up but the
winds inside the Panhandle arent expected to pick up too much.

Short term low temperatures should stay above freezing with high
temps a little cooler, reaching the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sat through Thu as of 10 PM Wed...Little change in
the forecast reasoning through the extended. Model guidance still
supports an upper low over the Bering Sea persisting into early
next week before weakening, then restrengthening mid to late next
week. This will maintain an active pattern across SE AK through
the extended forecast, but details are difficult to identify as
model solutions diverge in timing and strength of perturbations
ejecting out the parent low and across the gulf. Current
operational runs and ensembles coming into better agreement with a
front moving into the panhandle Sat and again Mon, but differ
slightly in the timing and amount of precip with these systems.
Forecast confidence in active pattern is above average, but drops
in regards to any details into early next week. Confidence falls
to low by mid next week with significant spread in operational
and ensemble guidance.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

GJS/BC

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