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000
FXAK67 PAJK 032201
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
201 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...Active weather pattern for the short-term as
multiple frontal bands/troughs are expected to move across the
region from the SW. A break in the clouds can be seen between a
trough currently causing showers over the area (in a line from
Yakutat to Hyder) and the next system approaching from the W and
SW. Have adjusted POP down during the early evening that the
break is expected, primarily for POW Island and Ketchikan.

Low pressure south of the Aleutians will track eastward to the
central gulf through Tuesday afternoon. The low already has a
long occluded front extending outward to the ESE to a triple
point, which is the portion approaching from the SW. The
occluded/warm front of the system moves into the southern and
central outer coast Monday evening, then spreads northward and
inland through Tuesday morning. A band of 20-30kt winds will
accompany this initial front, primarily for the outside waters,
ocean entrances, and up through Clarence Strait.

CAA sets in behind the occlusion and under the low center will
change rain to showers Tuesday night. The frontal bands rotating
about the parent low will make for intermittent showers and some
continued gusty winds. Will monitor during Tuesday evening for any
lightning strikes.

The low starts to weaken and shift SE during Wednesday. This will
cause decreasing POP across the north through the afternoon. Have
increased temperatures across the north to the lower 60s with some
breaks in the clouds possible.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ Active
weather pattern for SE Alaska continues through the long range
forecast as series of lows/fronts track into the AK Gulf. For
Wednesday the previous days low weakening to an open wave trough
as it moves into the SE Gulf. Precipitation and winds will
diminishing from north to south was the low exits the region by
early Thursday. The northern areas may get bit more drying due to
offshore flow as the low center moves towards Dixon Entrance. The
dry period will be short lived as the next front, associated with
a low pushing into the NE Gulf, crosses over the Eastern Gulf and
over the Panhandle Thursday evening into Friday. Expecting
approximately 1-1.5 inches of rainfall thru Friday. Strongest
winds expected Friday due to the advancing front with gulf winds
in the 20 to 30 kt range and inner channels of 10 to 20 kt.
Generally cooler temperatures with highs in the low 60s to upper
50s and lows in the low 50s to upper 40s. Beyond the end of the
week significant model spread on timing and position of the next
feature develops.

Good confidence that SE AK will be in a wet pattern but low
confidence in details, even at the start of the long range. Used
a blend of GFS/ECMWF for Wednesday but still uncertainty the gulf
low position. Getting better resolution for the next front
however still used ensemble approach with WPC solution.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

Ferrin/PRB

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