Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 251414
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
614 AM AKDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Mon night/ Incoming front will be
bringing in wind and precip for the panhandle on Sun. Yakutat
already has seen precip in the form of rain overnight. However,
the rest of the panhandle has yet to see any precip this morning.
This is due in part to the rather dry atmosphere that is present
over the panhandle. Temperatures have been on a rising trend
overnight as well. Most areas have rising above freezing with the
exception of Petersburg, Gustavus, Skagway, Haines, the
Mendenhall Valley, and Hyder, but dew points are still rather dry.

For today, the forecast challenge is what areas will see snow and
how much if any will accumulate. With the warmer then expected
temperatures this morning some areas of the central panhandle will
likely see less snow then what was previously expected, and will
change over to rain earlier in the day (unless they just start out
as rain). Snow accumulations, if any will likely only be an inch
or two at most. However, areas around the Haines and Klondike
Highways are still expected to remain mostly cold enough for snow
into tonight. Snow accumulations there will likely be around 2
inches today, with another 2 to 3 inches tonight, before changing
over to rain late tonight or early Mon. By Mon afternoon, Most
areas should be rain with some periods of heavy rain as SW flow
brings in some rather most air.

Some rather windy conditions are also expected as the front moves
through and also in the post frontal environment. Gales are still
expected for the gulf today, and several inner channel areas will
see small craft winds in marine areas and gusty winds for the land
areas. This continues as winds switch to a more SW direction in
the gulf Mon in the post front environment. The most noticeable
change however, is for Mon where an increase in southerly winds in
Lynn Canal and Skagway was added as pressures in the Yukon drop
with frontal passage. Gales are now expected in Lynn Canal, and
gusts could reach 40 mph or more at Skagway at that time. Winds
are then expected to diminish as we head into Mon night.

.LONG TERM.../Tue through Sun as of 10 pm Sat/ Following the
departure of the most recent system, more seasonably mild and
moist conditions will prevail across SE Alaska. Ensembles indicate
that onshore southwesterly flow will continue through the bulk of
this period. This will encourage ongoing chances of rain showers
across this period throughout the panhandle.

While the deterministic models remain in broad agreement about the
anticipated pattern, discrepancies continue to exist regarding the
timing of embedded disturbances in the flow. The most potentially
impactful of these events would be towards Wednesday or Thursday as
a possible shortwave trough with a corresponding increase in
moisture transport moves over the area. Confidence on the location
and timing of this system remains low, with some models continuing
to have it move south of the panhandle entirely. Additionally,
some models are indicating that the potential exists for an
additional system towards the end of the week into the weekend.
Chose to increase chances of precipitation and amounts of
precipitation to show the potential for additional impacts from
these events, but considerable uncertainty remains.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053.

&&

$$

EAL/SUK

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