Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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685
FXAK67 PAJK 041427
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
527 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Quiet morning across the
panhandle as most of the area is caught between two systems. One
low is south of the panhandle over Hecate Strait and heading into
British Columbia. The other is the dieing low near Prince William
Sound. Between the two is onshore westerly flow and scattered
showers.

Generally the quiet weather is expected to last through Monday
night as a flatter ridge builds in from the west across the Gulf.
Showers across the panhandle are expected to linger today (with
a lingering slight chance of thunderstorm along the NE Gulf coast
this morning), but diminish in frequency and intensity Monday
night.

Signs of change are coming late tonight across the gulf however,
as the initial effects of the next front start to make them selves
known. Winds will be increasing to gale force and the initial
rain bands will be moving in to the central gulf by late Monday
night. The current forecast has suggested a faster speed to the
next front by around 6 hours or so compared to the previous
forecast mainly due to the front being pushed east by a 120 kt 500
mb jet. Even with that increase in frontal speed the winds and
rain with it are still not expected to arrive in the panhandle
until Tuesday.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through next week/...The forecast for this
week remains largely unchanged. The big story will be the heavy
rain across parts of the panhandle Tuesday through Friday as a
series of systems move across through the area.

The first system - a storm force front - will weaken as it enters
the panhandle on Tuesday, though still anticipate strong winds for
many communities, especially those along the outer coast and in
the southern panhandle. A trailing atmospheric river in the wake
of the system will move across the southern panhandle Tuesday and
Wednesday, bringing with it widespread heavy rainfall. Amounts of
between 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected near sea level on
Tuesday across the southern half of the panhandle, with 2-5 inches
for Wednesday. Another system racing northward will bring with it
an additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rain for Thursday, and higher
rainfall totals in general are possible for areas of elevation.
Lower rainfall totals are expected for the northern half of the
panhandle. The primary concern with this event is primarily
rainfall duration as opposed to rainfall rate. River rises are
anticipated, but no flooding is expected at this time, although
the situation will be closely monitored in the event that updates
become necessary.

With regards to the potential for snowfall, anticipate that it
will be confined to the Haines and Klondike Highways for any snow
or snow dominant mix when precip from the first front arrives. Overall
expecting temperatures aloft to warm up enough to limit snow
accumulation aside from near the Canadian border, with substandard
lift and less favorable snow ratios likely to help cap snow
totals, though this will need to be monitored and evaluated
further over the next few days.

Winds in the outer coastal waters and across ocean entrances will
reach gale force intensity, with a few areas in the central gulf
and the northern gulf reaching storm force as the first system
arrives. Winds in the inner channels will pick up to small craft
on Tuesday, before diminishing across the northern and central
inner channels to some extent on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions continue to improve as rain exits the
panhandle. We will continue to see times of MVFR through this
morning into early afternoon before all areas improve to VFR
ceilings and visibilities. With the departing rain there is a higher
chance of seeing areas of broken fog during the morning hours.
Decreasing winds and breaks in the clouds will also help to increase
fog chances. Locations with fog will most likely stay MVFR, but
could decrease to IFR ceilings or visibilities for short periods of
time.

&&

.MARINE...Quiet marine weather through Monday evening then the
effects of the next front will start making themselves known.
Winds across the gulf expected to increase to gale and even storm
force (northern gulf) late Monday night into Tuesday and those
winds will spread into the inner channels by Tuesday afternoon.
Expect widespread 25 to 30 kt winds in the inner channels with a
few areas likely seeing gale force winds as well. Seas in the gulf
will be on the increase with this front, likely reaching 20 ft
Tuesday afternoon. Initial front moves through rather quickly and
winds and seas are expected to diminish area wide by late Tuesday
night.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....GFS/STJ
AVIATION...EAB

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