293
FXAK67 PAJK 092331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Mostly sunny skies continue Tuesday, with lingering showers
  tapering off overnight. A low marine layer has developed off
  the coast of Baranof Island and is pushing into Sitka Sound.

- Scattered showers return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
  morning for the southern and central panhandle, with skies
  clearing through Thursday afternoon and Friday.

- Another front moves into the northern gulf coast Saturday, with
  the rest of the panhandle seeing above normal temperatures for
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
Mostly sunny skies continue across the northern panhandle, with
upper level easterly flow pushing high clouds with isolated, light
showers into the central and southern panhandle through the
afternoon. A very low marine layer has developed along the coast
of Baranof Island and pushed into Sitka Sound, though it is now
pulling out of the sound as it shifts south towards Cape Decision.
Areas along the southern outer coast may see ceilings and
visibility drop through the next few hours, but northwesterly
winds along the coast from ridging in the gulf should keep the
marine layer from sticking around in one place for too long. A
marine layer is also pushing along the northern gulf coast and
into Yakutat, which may persist overnight. Otherwise, skies should
remain clear overnight across the rest of the panhandle. Light
winds in the southern panhandle overnight may allow for patchy fog
development in the early morning hours.

Heading into Wednesday, a very weak low approaching from the
southwest will bring the chance for light rain to the southern and
central panhandle in the afternoon and evening. Shower potential
will linger into Thursday morning, though skies are expected to
clear out again through the day. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler with the increased cloud cover, with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Sea breezes will most likely develop through midday
and continue into the afternoon for locations that see enough
clearing and daytime warming.

.LONG TERM...
Simply put, Friday, anticipate a nice day with sea breezes for
the region. Friday night we start to see a tale of two regimes:
wet for areas north and west of Frederick Sound and potential for
warm and dry south of Frederick Sound.

Touching on rain first, a gale force system will lift into the
western Gulf late Friday, bringing southeasterly sustained winds
of near-gale force to strong breezes to most of the coast into
Saturday. Seas will also increase, likely reaching near 14 ft
along the northern coast. Rain will also accompany this system,
with the focus on heaviest rain near Prince William Sound;
however, expect light to moderate rain for areas north and west of
Frederick Sound, especially west of Cape Fairweather. For all
communities, we anticipate 24 hour rain total to remain below 3
inches.

Now an interesting turn of events is taking place in the southern
Panhandle by Sunday. As guidance continues to shift the rain a
bit west, this means we will see drier conditions for Prince of
Wales and Ketchikan. One consequence of this will be potential
loss of cloud over and see temperatures in the upper 70s to
possible low 80s before rain and cooler temperatures arrive
Monday. As of Tuesday afternoon, our published forecast is
trending warmer and drier for this weekend in the south. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...We continue to see most land areas seeing VFR through
late afternoon into the evening, with areas near the water (like
Sitka and Yakutat) seeing marine layer fog working in and out at
times bringing MVFR to VFR flight conditions down to IFR quickly.
The model soundings continue to indicate that marine layer along
the coast will be noted overnight, with radiational fog
development over the land areas over the southern 1/3rd of the
Alaska Panhandle expected 12Z-16Z (early morning). For tomorrow,
probably similar conditions expected with lingering marine layer
for locations near the water potentially keeping visibilities and
ceilings restricted to IFR at times, but most locations should see
VFR tomorrow otherwise.

&&

.MARINE...

Inner Channels: Winds are expected to peak tonight in Lynn Canal,
20-25 kts for the Taiya Inlet, before diminishing overnight.
Western Icy Strait also looks to see increased winds tonight as
well with speeds 15-20 kts. Through the day tomorrow, winds
across the panhandle look to be overall lower than today because
of less diurnal heating due to more cloudcover. Stronger sea
breezes are expected to return on Thursday with sky cover
diminishing (warm land areas near colder water which drives the
sea breeze circulations).

Outer waters: Predominantly NW winds in the open Gulf are being
funneled along the near shore terrain, creating pockets of
increased wind around prodominant capes along the coast.
Sustained winds are expected to be around 20-25 kts, especially
around Cape Spencer. Winds on Wednesday across the Gulf are
expected to be lighter, and this terrain based forcing is not as
likely to occur. However, increased winds are expected on
Thursday, especially north of Cape Spencer, due to increasing
pressure gradient as a low pressure system moves in from the
west. This low pressure system is expected to move into the gulf
Friday night with near gale force winds north of Cape Spencer.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...AGP/JG

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