Area Forecast Discussion
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364
FXAK67 PAJK 070001
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...An upper level ridge will build over the gulf
tonight, shifting jet stream level flow out of the NW. This will
help the scattered to numerous showers over the central panhandle
to weaken some. A surface trough will cause the showers to shift
northward through the evening. Most places are cold enough to see
a mix, but little accumulation is expected.

Through Saturday night the upper level ridge will shift east over
the panhandle and turn flow back out of the W-SW. This "dirty
ridge" will allow more clouds and moisture to flow into the
northern panhandle, but should be able to hold back the main
front over the west-central gulf from making further progress. The
warm front portion of the front however, will be able to cause
steady rain on Saturday to become moderate to heavy Saturday
night in Yakutat. The warm air will cause snow levels to
gradually rise through the weekend, resulting in a change to all
rain.

The upper level trough/ridge pattern becomes more amplified Sunday
night with the ridge sharpening over the panhandle. This will
cause the warm frontal rain to be pushed back off the panhandle.
The Ketchikan area in particular will be stay dry through the
period.


.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Friday as of 10 pm Thursday / Ridge axis
aloft at 500 mb is pushed east of the Southeast Alaska panhandle
by Sunday night but the upper trough to the west is trying to
nose further into the western gulf. As it does a long southerly
fetch aloft will move to the eastern half of the gulf which will
lead to increase onshore flow of warm and moister air.

The flow pattern will have some rain for the central gulf coast,
perhaps over to the Icy Bay-Yakutat Bay region on Sunday and as
the ridge shifts eastward the increase in clouds over at least the
northern panhandle will happen along with a small bump in rain
changes. Mid to long range models solution still hanging on to the
idea that significant frontal band will spread in around Tuesday
and a followup around Thursday. Will need to keep a watch and
monitor this situation as it develops.

With the overall southerly flow pattern, temperatures should
remain above average for the season. And no strong wind events is
expected through the week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

Ferrin/Bezenek

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