899
FXAK67 PAJK 231233
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
433 AM AKDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SHORT TERM...

The pattern change is slowly making its way into the panhandle
with high clouds over the far inner channels and lower stratus
following closely behind. Looking at water vapor satellite
imagery, light troughing with onshore flow is struggling to push
into drier atmosphere in the far inner channels, with Juneau,
Haines, and Skagway still experiencing breaks in the clouds to
outright clear conditions. Expect moisture to fully move into the
area in the morning hours in the Juneau, Petersburg, and Wrangell
area. Haines and Skagway will see clouds filtering in later in the
day, due to downslope drying effects from light westerly flow
aloft. As the moisture flow aloft shifts more south, increased
cloud cover will eventually make it to the Haines and Skagway
area. For temperatures, above normal temperatures look to make a
quick exit with more normal temperatures for this time of year
replacing them. With onshore SW flow, expecting west facing
mountains to experience the highest chances for any sort of
precipitation, but due to weak flow and the current lack of a
saturated environment, overall chances for rain will stay
relatively low throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:

 -  Precipitation chances return throughout the week, but rain
    stays light with low QPF totals.

 - With increased cloud cover, maximum temperatures return to near
   normal in the 60s.

 - A more organized low reaches the Gulf of Alaska Friday into
   Saturday.

Details: Little changes were made to the forecast with a change
in the weather pattern still expected to occur at the start of
this week. Then a more organized low will reach the Gulf of Alaska
this weekend continuing the rainy and overcast pattern. At the
start of the week, a surface ridge will stay in place as an upper
level trough moves over the northern gulf. This will create times
of light precipitation for the panhandle with very little
accumulation. This means that no impacts due to rain are expected.
The thing that will be more noticeable will be the increase in
cloud cover and decrease in temperatures. More moisture aloft will
bring back clouds which will reduce heating during the day. This
allows maximum temperatures to become near normal in the 60s.

A more organized low will reach the Gulf of Alaska Friday night into
Saturday. This increases precipitation chances to make rain likely,
but it will still be light with times of moderate rain possible late
in the weekend. The most QPF seems to fall Saturday into Sunday That
being said, on Saturday QPF probabilities remain around 60% chance of
0.3 inches in 24. On Sunday, QPF probabilities for 24 hours are
around 60 to 65% of greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours.

Winds in the gulf through mid to late week remain light before
increasing Thursday and Friday, due to the low that moves into the
gulf. At that time winds will increase to 20 to 25 kts along the
coast, with the potential for slightly stronger winds in the far
northern gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR to MVFR conditions will remain the main story across the
panhandle through the day, with the exception of the outer coast
and southern panhandle, where IFR or even LIFR conditions are
expected through at least the first half of the morning as a
marine layer lingers. While the marine layer will weaken through
the daytime hours, chances of light showers and drizzle will
slowly return from S to N as onshore flow restarts across
Southeast Alaska. Winds will largely be on the lower side,
although Skagway will be the exception, likely seeing southerly
flow approaching 20 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outer Waters: No changes to the outside waters forecast with
current observations showing a westerly shift in winds to 10 - 15
knots. Significant wave heights are currently around 4-6 ft across
the gulf and is expected to remain mostly steady through the day.
Looking further into the week, mostly expecting 5 to 15 knot wind
at various directions until late in the week, when a more
organized front is possible and would bring west and southerly
winds up to 20 knots.

Inside Waters: Again, not much change for the inside waters. The
incoming trough looks relatively weak, limiting increases in winds
in the inner channels to around 10 knots. Again, two exceptions:
Lynn Canal, to which higher wind speeds were tightened up to
around Eldred Rock northward, and Clarence Strait, with both areas
increasing to around 15 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Warmer-than-normal temps and high freezing levels over the
northern panhandle has mostly come to a close with increased cloud
cover and cooler 850 mb temperatures. The Chilkat River is
currently in Minor Flood stage and flooding is expected to
continue through early week, the Flood Advisory has been extended
to 10PM Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC

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