


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
899 FXAK67 PAJK 231233 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 433 AM AKDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .SHORT TERM... The pattern change is slowly making its way into the panhandle with high clouds over the far inner channels and lower stratus following closely behind. Looking at water vapor satellite imagery, light troughing with onshore flow is struggling to push into drier atmosphere in the far inner channels, with Juneau, Haines, and Skagway still experiencing breaks in the clouds to outright clear conditions. Expect moisture to fully move into the area in the morning hours in the Juneau, Petersburg, and Wrangell area. Haines and Skagway will see clouds filtering in later in the day, due to downslope drying effects from light westerly flow aloft. As the moisture flow aloft shifts more south, increased cloud cover will eventually make it to the Haines and Skagway area. For temperatures, above normal temperatures look to make a quick exit with more normal temperatures for this time of year replacing them. With onshore SW flow, expecting west facing mountains to experience the highest chances for any sort of precipitation, but due to weak flow and the current lack of a saturated environment, overall chances for rain will stay relatively low throughout the day. .LONG TERM... Key messages: - Precipitation chances return throughout the week, but rain stays light with low QPF totals. - With increased cloud cover, maximum temperatures return to near normal in the 60s. - A more organized low reaches the Gulf of Alaska Friday into Saturday. Details: Little changes were made to the forecast with a change in the weather pattern still expected to occur at the start of this week. Then a more organized low will reach the Gulf of Alaska this weekend continuing the rainy and overcast pattern. At the start of the week, a surface ridge will stay in place as an upper level trough moves over the northern gulf. This will create times of light precipitation for the panhandle with very little accumulation. This means that no impacts due to rain are expected. The thing that will be more noticeable will be the increase in cloud cover and decrease in temperatures. More moisture aloft will bring back clouds which will reduce heating during the day. This allows maximum temperatures to become near normal in the 60s. A more organized low will reach the Gulf of Alaska Friday night into Saturday. This increases precipitation chances to make rain likely, but it will still be light with times of moderate rain possible late in the weekend. The most QPF seems to fall Saturday into Sunday That being said, on Saturday QPF probabilities remain around 60% chance of 0.3 inches in 24. On Sunday, QPF probabilities for 24 hours are around 60 to 65% of greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours. Winds in the gulf through mid to late week remain light before increasing Thursday and Friday, due to the low that moves into the gulf. At that time winds will increase to 20 to 25 kts along the coast, with the potential for slightly stronger winds in the far northern gulf. && .AVIATION... VFR to MVFR conditions will remain the main story across the panhandle through the day, with the exception of the outer coast and southern panhandle, where IFR or even LIFR conditions are expected through at least the first half of the morning as a marine layer lingers. While the marine layer will weaken through the daytime hours, chances of light showers and drizzle will slowly return from S to N as onshore flow restarts across Southeast Alaska. Winds will largely be on the lower side, although Skagway will be the exception, likely seeing southerly flow approaching 20 kt in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Outer Waters: No changes to the outside waters forecast with current observations showing a westerly shift in winds to 10 - 15 knots. Significant wave heights are currently around 4-6 ft across the gulf and is expected to remain mostly steady through the day. Looking further into the week, mostly expecting 5 to 15 knot wind at various directions until late in the week, when a more organized front is possible and would bring west and southerly winds up to 20 knots. Inside Waters: Again, not much change for the inside waters. The incoming trough looks relatively weak, limiting increases in winds in the inner channels to around 10 knots. Again, two exceptions: Lynn Canal, to which higher wind speeds were tightened up to around Eldred Rock northward, and Clarence Strait, with both areas increasing to around 15 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Warmer-than-normal temps and high freezing levels over the northern panhandle has mostly come to a close with increased cloud cover and cooler 850 mb temperatures. The Chilkat River is currently in Minor Flood stage and flooding is expected to continue through early week, the Flood Advisory has been extended to 10PM Tuesday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...GFS MARINE...NC HYDROLOGY...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau