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000
FXAK67 PAJK 222257
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Through Mon night/ Our nice dry and sunny weather
is coming to an end tonight as a new front advances on the
panhandle from the SW. Currently high clouds have spread over the
southern and central panhandle and precipitation lurks just
offshore of Prince of Wales Island according to satellite and
radar imagery. Meanwhile the north still has rather clear skies
and mostly warm temperatures again this afternoon.

The main effects from the front will be felt tonight. The south
will get it first with rain and some breezy conditions expected
this evening. Total rainfall will be in the quarter inch range
overnight. That rain then spreads into the northern panhandle late
tonight before the frontal rainfall heads into Canada early Mon.
We will be left with SW onshore flow and showers Mon into Mon
night with lighter rainfall expected. The secondary effect from
the increased clouds and rain will be much cooler temperatures for
afternoon highs on Mon. Expected highs will in the low to mid
50s.

Not much in the way of forecast changes for the short range
overall today. The main changes were local effects for winds, and
cooling high temps for Mon down a few degrees.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/ Showers persist across the
panhandle Tuesday before we welcome another break in
precipitation for midweek. High pressure develops in the gulf
Wednesday sending systems to the south of the panhandle. This
caused some change in the mid range forecast by further decreasing
precip chances and pushing a low track further south from the
panhandle Thursday. Overall, with the general high pressure over
the gulf causing parallel pressure gradients; lighter winds and
drier conditions are expected beginning Wednesday and going
through Thursday. With more of a "dirty ridge" sky cover wont be
severe clear but you can still expect partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies.

By Friday, models suggest a low could develop and push north
towards the southern panhandle. With the GFS being the main
supporter of this scenario, decided to hold back on some of the
higher precip chances as ensembles lean toward the drier side.

Temperatures fall slightly through the mid week with highs in the
upper 50s, before climbing back into the low 60s by late week.
Overnight lows look much of the same with temps in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

EAL/CC

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