Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 191113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
613 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain cold today through Wednesday morning with mainly
dry weather. Another system will bring snow transitioning to a
wintry mix late Wednesday into Wednesday night, with milder air
returning by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EST, areas with clear skies, calm winds along with
the fresh snowpack in place have had temperatures plummet to
between zero and 15 below. Most of these locations were located
within the southern Adirondacks and the Lake George region.
For instance, the NY Mesonet site at Whitehall was down to -15 F,
and the ASOS at Glens Falls was -12 F.

Elsewhere, occasional clouds and some wind has kept temps
somewhat milder, generally between 5 above and 15 above.

We still could see temperatures fall another 1-3 degrees
through 7 AM. So, expect widespread single digits above and
below zero outside of the southern Adirondacks, where temps
around sunrise may be as low at -15 to -20 F.

After the cold start, expect mostly sunny skies through today
which should allow temps to reach the lower/mid 20s for lower
elevations, and teens across higher elevations. Temps may reach
the lower 30s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Brisk
west/northwest winds will later this morning, with some gusts up
to 20-25 mph possible.

Later this afternoon, as low level winds back into a more
westerly direction, some low level moisture from the Great Lakes
may extend into portions of the westernmost Mohawk Valley and
southwest Adirondacks with some clouds and flurries possible
toward sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight will be mainly clear with nearly calm winds, so expect
temps to drop off once again to between 5 below and 15 above
for many areas, with some sheltered areas of the southern
Adirondacks possibly dropping back to around 15 below. Some high
clouds will increase from southwest to northeast toward
daybreak. Also, some Lake Effect clouds and light snow
showers/flurries could extend into portions of central and
northern Herkimer County at times.

Wednesday-Wednesday night, the next storm system tracks into the
Great Lakes region during this time period, with a warm front
extending from the low into the mid Atlantic region. As the warm
front tracks northeast, strengthening isentropic lift along the
290-295 K surfaces should allow clouds to rapidly increase
Wednesday afternoon, with snow developing from southwest to
northeast late in the afternoon. It appears that the snow should
reach the I-90/I-88 corridors and points south/west by sunset,
and a few hours thereafter across the southern Adirondacks
extending into southern VT. This could lead to a slippery
evening commute, with snowfall accumulations up to an inch for
these aforementioned areas. The snow, light to moderate in
intensity, may become somewhat patchy as it tracks northeast, as
the deepest moisture begins to shunt eastward across the
northern mid Atlantic states and off the NJ coast Wednesday
evening, where a weak secondary surface wave may develop along
the impinging low level warm front. In fact, models also suggest
a fairly deep wedge of dry air within the H700-500 layer
translates northeast into the region by late Wednesday evening.
Eventually, a warm nose aloft will track northward Wednesday
evening, changing snow to a sleet/freezing rain mix, with mainly
freezing rain/freezing drizzle in many areas after midnight as
the elevated warm nose coincides with the lack of ice nuclei
within the impinging mid level dry layer. So, after a period of
snow with generally 1-2 inches of accumulation (perhaps locally
higher across higher terrain of the southern Greens, northern
Berkshires, and SW Adirondacks), expect mainly light sleet and
freezing rain to occur, with ice accretion of a light glaze to
up to one tenth of an inch to occur. Given prospects for some
freezing rain, it is likely that Winter Weather Advisories will
be issued for at least portions of the region for Wednesday
night.

Thursday, lingering freezing rain/freezing drizzle may persist
Thursday morning, especially for areas near and north of I-90.
As the weakening system`s occluded front tracks east across the
region later Thursday morning, increased mixing should allow
temps to spike into the 40s for many areas, with even some 50s
possible across lower elevations within the mid Hudson Valley
and NW CT. Temps across higher terrain areas may then start to
fall later in the day back into the 30s. It will become windy by
afternoon, with west/northwest winds potentially gusting to
25-35+ mph.

Thursday night, increasing cold air advection and a
west/northwest cyclonic flow should allow for mostly cloudy
skies with spotty snow showers/flurries possible across the
Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks. Otherwise, temps will
slowly fall back through the 30s with some 20s possible by
daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flat upper ridging in eastern North America will keep temperatures
at or a little above normal through the period. Strong upper energy
in the western and central U.S. will continue to weaken as it tracks
within the northern periphery of the upper ridging and broadly
confluent upper flow.

Dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday, although, Saturday
there will be increasing clouds with the leading edge of some patchy
light precipitation possibly approaching southern areas.  Highs
Friday in the upper 30s to lower 40s but lower 30s northern areas.
Highs Saturday in the lower 40s with mid 30s northern areas.

Upper energy and increasing low level moisture and forcing track
toward our region Saturday night and through our region Sunday.
Mixed precipitation Saturday night will become rain Sunday. There
are questions as to the timing of the onset and exit of
precipitation in the fast west southwest upper flow and adjustments
will be made as we get closer to next weekend. Showers could linger
into Sunday night. Highs Sunday in the lower to mid 40s but a few
upper 40s southern areas and around 40 northern areas.

Any precipitation ends Sunday night, except for some possible lake
effect snow shower activity that could extend into the southern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Highs Monday in the upper 30s
to lower 40s but lower 30s southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear sky through tonight with high pressure in control of
the weather. VFR ceilings and visibilities expected through tonight.

Variable winds at 6 Kt or less through mid morning will increase to
10 to 15 Kt with gusts to near 20 Kt late this morning and
afternoon. Northwest winds diminish to 6 Kt or less this evening and
continue through the night.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN...FZRA...SLEET.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30.0 Chance of SHRA...RA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least this
week.

Seasonably cold weather is expected through Wednesday, promoting
ice expansion on area waterways.

The next system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday morning
with snow transitioning to a wintry mix. Precipitation amounts
of generally a quarter to a half an inch are expected.
Temperatures are expected to run a bit above normal Thursday
into the weekend.

Another period of rain or mixed precipitation is possible
Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/Thompson
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson


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