Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 050235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1035 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is coming to an end as Tropical Storm Isaias departs the
area. Winds will remain gusty through this evening before
lessening overnight. Outside of a couple of showers across the
Adirondacks, dry weather is expected on Wednesday. There will be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms south and east of the
Capital District on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT, We have cancelled the wind advisory and flash
flood watch and all tropical headlines per NHC coordination.
Upstream upper trough axis and some residual showers are
possible with the passage of this trough and surface cold front.
Under a variable cloudy sky, lows generally into the 60s with
some upper 50s toward sunrise across the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A more tranquil weather pattern is in store in the wake of Isaias
for Wednesday and Thursday. An upper-level shortwave will rotate
around an upper-level low across Ontario Wednesday morning and bring
a few showers to the Adirondacks. Once this shortwave pulls away,
surface high pressure will gradually build across the region and
advect a drier and less humid air mass. High temperatures will range
from the 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure will continue to build across the region on Thursday.
A frontal boundary will stall across the mid-Hudson Valley and
attempt to lift northward toward our area. With the dry air mass in
place, any showers and thunderstorms that develop along the front
should stay to the south of our area. Otherwise, expect a partly to
mostly sunny day with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long range will start out with the battleground between surface
high pressure to our north and west and a stalled frontal boundary
to our south and east which will attempt to lift northward and form
a surface low pressure system. This will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours on
Friday and Saturday , mainly to the south and east of the Capital
District. It appears that the air mass will remain dry enough for
dry weather to continue from the Capital District and points north
and west through this period. An upper-level trough will push this
feature our to sea later on Saturday. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday will range from the 70s to lower 80s.

A slow warming trend will then ensue as the surface high pushes off
to the east and a west to southwesterly flow returns to the region.
At this time, the weekend looks to turn out mainly dry with chances
for showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical storm Isaias is rapidly moving away from the area this
evening. West-northwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 kts early this
evening will rapidly diminish to 10 kts or less by around
midnight. Conditions will improve to VFR with sct-bkn clouds at
about 5000 feet later this evening, continuing overnight. VFR
conditions will continue during the day Wednesday with scattered
clouds above 3000 feet. Winds will be from the southwest at 10
kts or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain and wind will come to an end early this evening as Isaias
departs the region. Drier weather and sunshine will return for most
on Wednesday and Thursday (outside of a few showers across the
Adirondacks on Wednesday). RH values will lower to between 45 and 60
percent Wednesday afternoon and rebound to 85 to 100 percent
Wednesday night. Wind will be out of the west at 7-14 mph on
Wednesday, becoming calm Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain from Isaias will come to an end from south to north
into this evening. Rainfall totals range from 1-3 inches across
the region with some localized amounts already over 4 inches. An
additional inch or so will be possible on top of what has
already fallen, leading to storm totals of 2-4 inches with
localized amounts to 6 inches. A general 1-2 inches is expected
across western New England.

The risk for flash flooding will continue until Isaias departs
the region this evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for the entire HSA.

Despite this amount of rainfall, there remains low
probabilities for river flooding on the main stem rivers, mainly
due to the Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions across
the region. However, some of the flashier basins could see some
minor flooding, such as the Schoharie, Esopus, Hoosic, and
Mettawee. The Hudson near Poughkeepsie could get close to flood
stage due to tidal effects.

Drier weather will return for the remainder of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...MSE/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/Rathbun



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