Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this evening
into tonight as an upper level disturbance passes across the region.
With a warm and muggy air mass in place and additional disturbances
moving over the area, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the next few days, with some locally heavy downpours possible.
The threat for rain will diminish late in the week with above normal
temperatures returning to the area by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT...A stalled out surface boundary is located
south of the region, extending from eastern PA and northern NJ
northeast along the coast of southern New England. This boundary
is starting to lift back northward as a warm front. High clouds
have been streaming northward through the day and have now
spread across the entire region. The low level flow is out of
the south to southeast and dewpoints have been returning into
the 60s for this afternoon.

Although it`s currently fairly dry across the area, an upper
shortwave approaching from the southwest will return the threat
for showers and thunderstorms to our area. Some activity can
already be seen on MRMS imagery over central NY, northeastern PA
and NJ. CAMs suggest this activity will eventually spread
towards our area by this evening and into tonight. Some spotty
activity is expected this evening (mainly western and southern
areas), but all parts of the region should see fairly widespread
on and off showers for the late night hours.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows better instability off southwest of the
area, with MLCAPE values under 500 J/kg across our area at this
time. 0-6 km bulk shear remains low due to the weak dynamics in
place, with values under 25 kts. As a result, the threat for
stronger thunderstorms is expected to stay south and southwest
of the area across the mid Atlantic for today. However, with
rising PWATs (values already over 1.30" across southern areas
and expected to increase to around 1.50" by tonight), some
locally heavy downpours will be possible for this evening into
tonight. Ponding of water will be possible on roadways and other
low lying spots.

Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s and with the rising
dewpoints, it will start to feel muggy across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing on Tuesday
morning but they should start shifting off to the east as the
upper level disturbance starts moving away. A few additional
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible on
Tuesday afternoon due to the warm and muggy air mass in place,
but the best forcing should be moving away from the area by
afternoon. Although the day will start out fairly cloudy, there
should be some breaks of sun by afternoon with valley highs in
the lower to middle 80s.

Most of Tuesday night looks fairly dry, although it will
continue to remain mild and muggy. Some showers could be
possible by late in the overnight as the next disturbance
approaches with in the broad southwest flow aloft, so will
continue to mention a chance for showers or t-storms, although
it`s probably more of a threat for just late at night and
mainly southern areas.

On Wednesday, more scattered showers and thunderstorms look to
be possible. Best timing once again will probably be in the
diurnally-favored afternoon and evening hours. Large scale
forcing still seems limited as the best upper level disturbance
will still be off to the west over the Great Lakes, but with
a warm and muggy air mass, along with the broad southwest flow
in place, some activity should develop thanks to differential
heating and lake-breeze boundaries. Otherwise, skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy and it will be warm and humid with
valley highs in the 80s.

Most showers and thunderstorm activity should start to wind down
for Wednesday night with the loss of daytime heating, although
there could still be a few spotty showers around, especially for
western areas as the next upper level disturbance approaches
from the west. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble model guidance is favoring for upper level troughing
over the Great Lakes to move over our region and head eastward
Thursday where a few showers and thunderstorms could develop in
the afternoon hours as an associated surface cold front is
currently forecasted to move through, which should also bring
some relief of the muggy conditions. Primary concerns with any
developed thunderstorms are lightning and heavy downpours. By
Thursday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move
through with drier conditions in store for Friday. Temperatures
for Thursday and Friday are forecasted to be in the low to mid
80s.

Upper level ridging is favored to build back into our region for
Saturday through early next week bringing drier conditions. The
National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 data has high probabilities
(greater than 75 percent) for high temperatures this weekend to be
in the mid to upper 80s, with some valley locations reaching 90
degrees for Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions will remain VFR this afternoon with
increasing mid and high level clouds. Winds will remain light,
mainly from a south to southeasterly direction.

With an upper level disturbance approaching, the threat for
scattered showers will increase for this evening into tonight.
Initially, there may be some spotty activity lifting northward
around 23z to 04z or so. However, more steadier and widespread
showers will be moving in from the west and southwest after
05z or so and continuing through the late night hours. Within
any showers, flying conditions may lower to MVFR levels,
especially for visibility. Some MVFR ceilings are possible
during the late night as well. Can`t totally rule out a rumble
of thunder, although coverage looks too low to include at this
time. For now, IFR conditions looks to be a lower probability,
but brief periods of it cannot be ruled out.  Light to calm
winds are expected overnight.

Some improvement back to VFR conditions is expected on Tuesday
morning as the steadiest precip moves away from the area. Some
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon hours. Winds will continue to be light and variable on
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Frugis