000
FXUS61 KALY 050159
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
959 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair weather tonight into
tomorrow with temperatures continuing above normal.  Clouds
increase Thursday night with some scattered showers developing
Friday ahead of a cold front. The slow moving cold front will bring
periods of showers, breezy conditions and cooler weather Saturday
with below normal temperatures and blustery conditions for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 10 PM the forecast remains on track this
evening. Only minor adjustments made to temperatures to reflect
current obs and to account for latest model trends. Otherwise,
all other parameters are status quo. See the previous discussion
below for additional information.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [400 PM]...
As of 400 PM EDT...Beautiful early October day across eastern
NY and western New England, as temps have risen into the upper
70s to mid 80s across eastern NY and western New England. Some
spotty upper 80s have also occurred in the anomalously warm air
mass for early October. Some records are possible and see our
climate section below. A far cry from October 4, 1987, when a
major snowstorm occurred across east-central NY into portions of
western New England.

Clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will allow for
radiational cooling once again tonight. Patchy to areas of
valley fog will form again. We added patchy dense fog to the
river valley areas (similar to this morning). Some low-level
stratus may form in the east/southeast flow, as the sfc high
moves east of New England. Lows will be mild in the 50s with
some upper 40s over the eastern Catskills and southern Dacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The mid and upper level ridge axis will be along the
East Coast with the sfc anticyclone near the Mid Atlantic
States. Partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected with the
fog burning off in the morning. Some lower stratus may linger
south and east of the Capital Region until the early pm. Max
temps will run about 10 degrees above normal...up to 15 degrees
in a few spots. Max temps near a NBM/MAV blend are expected with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and 70s over
the higher terrain. The warmest readings may end up over the
northern portion of the forecast area where a bit more sunshine
may occur.

Thu night into Friday...A mid and upper level trough will
approach from the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Region. The low to mid level flow will become south to
southwest. Clouds will increase Thu night. A pre frontal
disturbance may bring a few light showers/sprinkles to locations
south and west of the Capital Region by daybreak. It will be
mild and breezy. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

Friday will feature thickening and lowering clouds with showers
increasing by the afternoon due to an inverted sfc trough off
the Coast and the approaching cold front. The isentropic lift
increases with the guidance showing showers spreading across the
region by the mid to late pm. The better synoptic forcing does
not arrive until night time. Temps will be cooler with clouds
and pcpn moving in with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Moisture advection increases ahead of the cold front. The low-
level thermal gradient enhances with the strong cold front. The
upper level trough turns negatively tilted and begins to phase
with a wave off the coast. The low-level convergence increases
with good upper level dynamical support. Showers will become
numerous and with weak elevated instability a rumble of thunder
is possible. Lows fall into the 50s to around 60F with breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shift back to Fall coming for the weekend. Brisk and cool
conditions will persist Saturday into Sunday. Temps dip below
normal in the cyclonic flow heading into next week. Lake
enhanced showers may persist into Tuesday with the upper low.
More clouds than sunshine expected with temps running around
10 degrees below normal.

Saturday will be the transitional day where the trough becomes
negatively tilted with periods of rain and weak instability with
showers continuing through the day with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Some gusty winds are possible with any
thunderstorms. The heaviest rain tallies through Saturday will
be north of I-90 with 1-2+" possible over the southern Dacks,
Lake George Region and southern VT. 0.5" to 1.5" further south.
Some ponding and poor drainage flooding is possible. The low
may deepen and intensify as it is captured and migrates
north/northwest of the region over s-cntrl Quebec by Sunday. It
will become blustery and much cooler by Sunday. Highs in the mid
50s to mid/upper 60s on Saturday will be replaced by 50s in the
valleys on Sunday with 40s to lower 50s over the hills and
mtns. West to northwest winds in the cold advection regime will
be 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Lows Sat night will be in the
40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain.

Cool and brisk conditions continue Sunday night into Columbus
Day in the cyclonic flow aloft with lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s and highs Monday in the 40s to to mid 50s with lake
effect/lake enhanced showers. Some snow is possible over the
high peaks of the southern Dacks.  The below normal temps
continue into the mid week with chances of showers on Tuesday
especially over the higher terrain, and the upper low gradually
weakening by the mid week with less coverage for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z FRI...VFR conditions expected through at least 06
UTC at all sites except GFL where fog may start developing as
early as 00 - 03 UTC given calm winds and temperatures quickly
approaching their respective dew points. Elsewhere, a light
southeast breeze remains in place and this breeze could continue
overnight which would act to reduce fog formation. Therefore, we
trended the forecast to be more optimistic with only MVFR
visibility and BKN LIFR ceilings instead of OVC or VV ceilings.
Southeast winds tonight also look to advect a marine stratus
deck inland off of the Atlantic and this cloud deck could reach
POU towards 09 - 12 UTC. Less confident on fog developing at POU
so only show MVFR visibility there.

Where patchy fog and/or low stratus develop will likely linger
until 14 UTC. After that, southeast winds should strengthen
enough that VFR conditions return. Cirrus clouds will continue
overspreading the region from west to east across the terminals
through the day.

Southeast winds tonight will be variable between calm and 3-5
kts. When winds are calm, fog likely develops but when the
winds increase, fog will likely diminishes. By 14-16 UTC
southeast winds will likely increase to become sustained 5 -
12kts with occasional gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures

October 4th
ALB 86 (1891)
GFL 80 (1951)
POU 86 (1941)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale
CLIMATE...