Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 251735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1235 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring precipitation to the region
later this morning through this evening, with mainly rain for valley
areas from Albany south and east, and a mix of snow, sleet and
freezing rain changing to rain to the north and west, as well as
across higher elevations of western New England. Steady
precipitation will taper off this evening, with snow showers and
flurries expected for Sunday into Monday in the wake of the storm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 4 PM for the
eastern Catskills, Schoharie County, Helderbergs, western
Mohawk Valley, and southern Saratoga region...

Winter Weather Advisory for 1 PM Saturday until 4 AM Sunday for
the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region, southern
Vermont, and Berkshires...

As of 9:45AM, temperatures have warmed into the low 30s this
morning except for the Upper Hudson Valley including Glens
Falls where temperatures remain in the mid to upper 20s.
Precipitation continues to slowly approach eastern NY with NYS
mesonet stations showing accumulating precipitation now nearing
southern Herkimer and the eastern Catskills. We have adjusted
our POPs to account for the latest radar and HRRR trends which
has captured the delayed onset timing well. Given how late in
the morning initial showers are overspreading the region, both
surface and temperatures aloft have warmed nicely with the SPC
mesoanalysis showing 850mb isotherms ranging +3C to +4C. While
some wet-bulbing will occur once precipitation begins cooling
surface temperatures a bit, the thermal profiles should be mild
enough aloft that precipitation should fall as plain rain or
freezing rain with perhaps some brief sleet in the
Adirondacks/Upper Hudson Valley. Road temperatures have warmed
this morning but are still near freezing so some surfaces could
become icy even if air temperatures are slightly above freezing.
Motorists should use caution if traveling late this morning
into the early afternoon.

The 12z ALY sounding shows that the cold wedge near the surface
is rather shallow and with strong unidirectional southeast flow
through most of the column, most areas should become plain rain
by 18z to 21z. The extra weather balloon launches we are
scheduled to do in support of the NASA Impacts project at 18z,
21z and 03z will be valuable. We will monitor temperature trends
and adjust our Winter Weather Advisory as needed for the
eastern Catskills, Schoharie County, Helderbergs, western Mohawk
Valley and southern Saratoga region.

The southern Adirondacks and areas of southern Vermont mainly
above 1500ft could hold on to the low level cold air due to wet-
bulbing processes and stay as a wintry mix of freezing
rain/sleet through the entire day. Thus, we will continue with a
Winter Weather Advisory in these areas to continue through 4AM
tonight.

The area of rain associated with the 850mb 45-55kt jet looks to
expand across the region after 18z/19z this afternoon giving us
a widespread soaking rain. Rain should become moderate to even
heavy late this afternoon, especially across the SE Catskills,
mid Hudson Valley into NW CT. Rainfall rates of 0.10 to 0.20"
per hour can occur at times.

Gusty east winds will develop across higher terrain of the
Taconics, Berkshires, and southern Greens this morning, peaking
this afternoon and evening, when some wind gusts could reach
40-45 mph.

Late day highs mainly in the 30s across the region, although
could reach to around/over 40 immediately downwind of some
higher terrain areas across western New England and the
Berkshires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation should continue
translating northeast between 7 and 10 PM this evening, with
most of the steady precipitation ending shortly thereafter. In
the wake of this band associated with the occluded front and
secondary low pressure system, some clearing may occur in valley
areas south of Albany. This may allow for some patchy/areas of
dense fog to develop, and also could promote black ice formation
as temps dip to around or just under the freezing mark.
Elsewhere, clouds and some wind should keep temps slightly
elevated, although will have to watch for slightly colder temps
in valley areas should breaks in the clouds develop farther
north. Also, some snow showers will become possible toward
daybreak across the southeast Catskills ahead of a strong PV
anomaly approaching from the southwest.

This PV anomaly will translate northeast across the region
Sunday morning, and may allow for a band of snow showers to
develop along its leading edge. In its wake, snow showers and
flurries should become more scattered in coverage, except
across northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties, where a
combination of Lake Enhancement and orographic snow within the
low and mid level cyclonic flow regime should allow for frequent
snow showers to develop, with light accumulations possible.
Otherwise, it will become breezy with temps reaching the mid 30s
to around 40 in valley areas, and upper 20s to lower 30s for
higher elevations.

Persistent snow showers will continue across northern
Herkimer/Hamilton Counties Sunday night into Monday, with
several inches of snowfall possible. Elsewhere, scattered snow
showers and flurries will continue, especially areas north of
I-90. A few inches could also occur across higher elevations of
the southern Greens. Lows Sunday night in the mid 20s to
lower/mid 30s. Highs Monday mainly in the 30s.

A reinforcing cold front should pass through Monday night,
possibly increasing areal coverage of snow showers. Lows mainly
in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall, upper level pattern during this period shows mainly
troughing across the eastern part of the U.S. with ridging across
eastern Canada and ridging building into the western U.S. At the
surface, high pressure slowly builds southeast from central Canada
so that`s it almost overhead by Friday. For most of the period the
weather looks fair with a cold northerly flow. However, models do
indicate a number of weak shortwaves embedded in the flow which
could produce occasional cloudy periods and some light snow showers
over mainly the higher terrain. Overall, little in the way of
precipitation expected during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flying conditions have been VFR/MVFR for the morning but steady
rainfall is headed towards the region from central NY, NE PA and
NJ. The steady rainfall will be in place from about mid-
afternoon through the early evening hours, with MVFR/IFR
conditions likely (especially for visibility). Although surface
winds will be fairly light and variable, 2 kft winds will be
40-50 kts from the SE, allowing for LLWS at all sites.

As the occluded front moves across the region, steady rainfall
will taper off by 01z from southwest to northeast, allowing for
mainly dry conditions overnight. Can`t rule out a stray shower,
but it should be dry most of the time. Stratus clouds will
remain in place for all sites, with low end MVFR conditions at
KGFL/KALB and IFR at KPSF/KPOU. A light west-southwest breeze
with pick up and the combination of the remaining stratus clouds
and light breeze will keep any fog from forming overnight.

During the day on Sunday, ceilings may start to rise, so a
return to VFR conditions looks to occur for the valley sites.
Westerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts. A stray shower could be
around again, but coverage looks fairly low at this time.

Outlook...

Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will bring rain and a brief period of freezing
rain or sleet to the region later this morning into early this
evening. Valley areas should experience a period of steady,
moderate to briefly rainfall, which may result in some ponding
of water on roadways and in other low lying areas, especially
due to the frozen ground. Total precipitation will generally
range between 0.50 and 1.25 inches which may result in some
rises on rivers and streams (especially across the eastern
Catskills and western New England), but flooding is not
expected. Dry weather will then return for early next week,
allowing flows to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ038>040-047>051-058-063.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ033-
     041>043-083-084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...KL/Speciale



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