Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 260440
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1240 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and damp tonight with chances for showers.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a cold
front approaches and moves across the region. Some thunderstorms may
produce strong to damaging wind gusts and locally very heavy
downpours. Fair and seasonable weather returns for Thursday in the
wake of the cold front as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1230 AM EDT, areas of drizzle/fog have developed in many
places, as the boundary layer remains fairly cool and
saturated, with warm air gradually building north and east. Some
higher terrain areas, especially in the eastern Catskills, have
already surged into the 60s, while lower elevations generally
remain in the mid/upper 50s, except some lower 60s close to the
immediate Capital Region.

Some showers have developed across portions of central NYS,
along with isolated thunderstorms, in association with a
restrengthening of a low level jet to our southwest and
increasing warm advection. We expect some of these
showers/thunderstorms to expand and/or reach the southwest
Adirondacks and perhaps western Mohawk Valley over the next
couple of hours, with additional clusters of showers/storms
affecting this area through daybreak.

Elsewhere, some additional isolated to scattered showers will
remain possible, with best chances for development across
southern areas, closer to the low level warm frontal boundary
and convergence. Will have to watch this area in case more
persistent showers/storms develop and/or train.

Temps will continue to slowly rise through the night, into and
through the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

A cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday afternoon
into the evening. The big question is how much instability can
we achieve, will the clouds break up and can we get some
sunshine. It will be humid in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front with dew points forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The
wind field will be very strong shear with 50 to 70 knots mid-
level flow forecast. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.
However can`t rule out the threat for the development of supercellular
structures if we get enough instability since will have a good
southerly flow at the surface. Precipitable water values near 2
inches means any storm will be capable of producing locally very
heavy downpours but with the flow storms will be moving.

A cooler and much less humid air mass will be ushered in with
the passage of the cold front. Dew points are expected to drop
into the 40s Wednesday night setting the stage for a pleasant
day Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a more or less seasonable period with high temperatures
averaging mostly in the 60s during the end of this week...in the 50s
and lower 60s for the beginning of next week...bouncing back to
mostly the 60s by Tuesday.

A highly uncertain weather pattern of cool fronts and low pressure
systems will bring low probabilities of showers to the area through
the period, with the greatest chances expected in association with a
more pronounced system on Tuesday.  Overnight lows will stay above
freezing throughout the region all nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Steadier rain exiting the region but scattered showers and some
isolated patches of drizzle are over eastern NY with additional
scattered showers developing to the west and heading east.
Ceilings and visibilities are MVFR/IFR with LIFR ceilings. KGFL
is a bit north of the deepest moisture and remaining MVFR but
the ceiling at KGFL should fall below 1000 feet around midnight.

All TAF sites will see ceilings mainly between 400-1000 feet
through at least daybreak, perhaps to around 13Z. There could
be some brief periods of ceilings around 1500 feet but would be
short. Visibilities will vary between MVFR and IFR through about
13Z Wednesday as well with scattered showers at least through
04Z-06Z and indicating VCSH. More scattered showers possible
between 13Z-17Z Wednesday but less of a chance. Ceilings and
visibilities will rise to around or just above 3000 feet by 17Z-
18Z at all TAF sites.

As a cold front approaches, broken ceilings around or just above
3000 feet will dominate Wednesday afternoon and a line of
showers and thunderstorms will approach the TAF sites between
21Z-24Z and indicating PROB30 for thunderstorms during that time
period.

Light south to east winds this evening at less than 6 Kt will
become south after 13Z Wednesday and then increase to 10 to 15
Kt. There could be gusts around 20-25 Kt Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cloudy and damp tonight with chances for showers. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a cold front
approaches and moves across the region. Fair and seasonable
weather returns for Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread soaking rainfall across the region today. Heaviest
amounts have occurred to the south and east of the Capital
District. Basically looking at lull in the rain tonight with
only some light QPF expected. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a cold front
approaches and moves through. The heaviest rainfall Wednesday is
expected northwest of the Capital District across the
western/southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with an
additional 1/2 to 3/4 inch. Otherwise lesser amounts are
expected as you go to the south and east.

Storms Wednesday will be capable of producing locally very
heavy downpours which may cause localized urban/poor drainage
and low lying flooding especially for locations that received
heavier rain today.

Drier weather is then expected Thursday into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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