Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 242357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
757 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and chilly conditions in store for tonight and Sunday. The
start of the new week will be unsettled with rain across much of
the area, with some wet snow possible for the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cloud cover across the area is ever so slowly decreasing. Winds
remain brisk and gusty where they are enhanced by the
topography. The west-northwest flow will become more northerly
and weaken as high pressure builds in from the west and northwest.
Overall cloud cover forecast is a tough one tonight and impacts
the temperature forecast. As the flow becomes more northerly it
will decrease the flow off the lakes. The 00Z sounding has a
strong inversion present around 1700 feet. Guidance indicates
skies become partly cloudy to mostly clear. There could be some
localized clouds into the Lake George Saratoga Region to parts
of southern VT with light winds off Lake Champlain and Lake
George but if so, very localized.

Updated temperatures with hourly observations and blended with
latest guidance. With more clouds holding on longer did adjust
the lows up a couple of degrees but still chilly in the mid 20s
to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds along the U.S./Canadian border Sunday and
exits east Sunday night. Mainly sunny sky with light winds
Sunday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

Upper energy and increasing warm advection Sunday night with low
temperatures likely in the evening before thickening clouds and
low level winds become light east to southeast. The northern
edge of light rain begins to spread north late Sunday evening
and in the early morning hours of Monday, but just chances due
to the dry low levels. There could be a light mix of rain and
snow in the southern Adirondacks.

By daybreak Monday, precipitation should quickly expand through
most of our region but less coverage in southern areas as low
level southwest jet energy tracks across central and northern
NY, putting much of our region in low level divergence but
isentropic lift and warm advection will still support solid
chances for rain while rain likely along and north of I-90.
Light mix of rain and snow in southern Adirondacks becomes cold
rain Monday morning. Highs Monday in the 40s to lower 50s but
some mid 50s mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Upper energy and low level forcing exits Monday night before
another upper impulse embedded in quick west to southwest upper
flow later Tuesday. Any lingering rain Monday evening should
get suppressed into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW
CT and southern Berkshires later Monday night through Tuesday
morning with a quick period of low level ridging building in
from the north. There should still be considerable cloudiness
and again, some chances for rain in southern areas Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Slight chances for rain late Monday night
through Tuesday morning Mohawk Valley to northern Berkshires
and points north, closer to the center of the low level ridging.
Maybe isolated patches of rain and snow in the southern
Adirondacks around daybreak Tuesday.

Rain expands slowly north through Tuesday afternoon but the
deepest moisture and forcing should trend south of our region.
Still, chances for rain everywhere Tuesday afternoon with highs
in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period may consist of a period of unsettled weather,
especially on Thursday and Friday, with generally dry weather during
the other time periods. Temperatures will average below normal
during this period as well.

During Tuesday night, the frontal boundary will be to the south of
the area; however, a few lingering showers (and higher elevation
snow showers) will be possible as the upper-level shortwave passes
through. Even if there were to be a few snow showers, little if any
accumulation is expected. Lows will range from the upper 20s across
the Adirondacks to near 40 in the mid-Hudson Valley.

Upper-level flow becomes more zonal on Wednesday as high pressure
works into the region. This should bring a mostly dry day with at
least partial sunshine. Highs will generally reach the 40s across
areas above 1000 feet to the 50s below.

Thursday and Friday will be a challenging forecast for the next
several days as multiple features are likely to impact the forecast.
This includes 1) A southern stream cut-off upper-level low across
Texas, 2) A developing tropical low moving northward into the Gulf
Coast states, 3) A northern stream upper-level shortwave moving
across the Great Lakes and Northeast and 4) A large area of high
pressure building into the region in the wake of the northern stream
shortwave, which will attempt to suppress precipitation southward.

Model guidance today suggests that the upper-level low and the
tropical low merge across the Southern states and track
northeastward toward our region, with the center passing by to our
south across the mid-Atlantic. Still, enough moisture on the
northern side can bring periods of rain to the area Thursday into
Friday, especially south of Albany. Pending on when precipitation
ends, low-level cold air from the building high to the north could
lead to a change over to a rain/snow mix or plain snow in some
places before ending (this would most likely occur during the
Thursday night/early Friday morning time period). It is important to
note that model guidance and consistency remains low, so changes to
this forecast are likely to occur in the coming days. We will
continue to monitor trends and update as needed.

Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday night
in the upper 20s to near 40. Highs Friday will only reach the 30s in
the higher terrain to the 40s elsewhere with lows Friday night
in the 20s to lower 30s.

Dry weather returns Saturday with high pressure overhead. Highs will
be in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloud cover across the area is ever so slowly decreasing.
Guidance indicates skies become partly cloudy to mostly clear.
Did hold on to clouds longer with skies clearing out late at
night/early in the morning Sunday. There could be some localized
clouds into the Lake George Saratoga Region with light winds
off Lake Champlain and Lake George. Expecting VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies Sunday giving way to clouds moving in
from the south; thickening and lowering late in the TAF period.

Winds remain brisk and gusty where they are enhanced by the
topography. The west-northwest flow will become more northerly
and weaken tonight as high pressure builds in from the west and
northwest. The center of high will pass to our north Sunday and
the flow will shift to the northeast-east in the afternoon and
remain light.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and chilly conditions in store for tonight and Sunday. The
start of the new week will be unsettled with rain across much of
the area, with some wet snow possible for the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early Monday morning.

RH values will increase to between 85 and 95 percent tonight,
decreasing to minimum values of 35 to 50 percent on Sunday.

Winds tonight will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph, becoming
northerly on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread or significant hydro problems are expected
through the next 7 days.

Drier and cooler conditions are forecast tonight through
Sunday. Then some periods of light rain are expected Sunday
night through the middle of next week, as a series of low
pressure systems moves across the region. Appreciable rainfall
could occur for areas north and west of the Capital District,
although antecedent dry conditions should preclude any flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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