764
FXUS61 KALY 170612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
212 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns to the region through today as high
pressure builds in. Additional chances for rain showers arrive late
Friday night into Saturday, more likely for areas west of the
Hudson. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE as of 140 AM EDT...A 1016 hPa sfc anticyclone continue
to build in over New England. The skies have cleared nicely away
from the Mid Hudson River Valley. With light winds and mostly
clear skies temps have fallen in the 40s and 50s due to
radiative cooling. Some radiational mist/fog will likely form
where it rained and in and near the sheltered valleys. We added
a little more in the Hudson River Valley, but the previous
forecast handled this well. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North
Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a
period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the
day on Friday. As 850 hPa temperatures reach nearly 10C,
surface temperatures rise some 5-10 degrees above normal to
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in high terrain to
mid 70s to near 80 at lower elevations.

By Friday evening, an upper-level shortwave will approach from
the west, lifting across the North Country and into northern
New England by Saturday morning. Increasing clouds from west to
east will precede its passage, with isolated to scattered rain
showers reaching into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
Friday evening and night. Temperatures remain seasonably mild,
reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

Scattered showers may continue through Saturday, particularly
west of the Hudson as well as in the southern Greens. Mostly
cloudy skies trend clearer by Saturday evening, with showers
diminishing by sunset as the upper shortwave exits eastward
toward the Canadian Maritimes while ridging builds overhead
through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain pleasant and
seasonable, reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s in
high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and falling
to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Rex Block pattern looks to set up Sunday through Tuesday with
upper level high pressure overhead with an upper level low
across the Southeast US. Surface high pressure sets up along the
East Coast and will result in a period of mostly dry weather.
The exception could be for some very isolated showers across
some higher terrain areas. Temperatures will run above normal
with highs mainly in the 70s each day with some lower 80s across
the valleys on Monday and Tuesday.

The Rex Block begins to break down by Wednesday as an upper-
level trough and surface cold front approach from the west.
Timing of this front remains a bit uncertain but looks to push
through during Wednesday night into early Thursday. This looks
to bring our next best chance for some showers and a few
thunderstorms as guidance suggests some weak instability could
be in place.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease for later in the week
with either flat ridging or upper-level troughing overhead. For
now, will run with the NBM for Thursday which places chance POPs
across the region. Thursday would also turn out slightly cooler
after the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are in place at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF while IFR conditions are currently being
observed at KPOU due to fog. Skies remain mostly clear this
morning with some high-level clouds sliding through the region
ahead of a disturbance upstream and a small patch of lower-level
clouds in the lower Hudson-Valley. IR imagery shows some fog
developing in some valley areas, but no other terminal besides
KPOU has been impacted. However, with plenty of breaks, it is
possible that other terminals could develop mist/fog later this
morning. Therefore, included TEMPO groups with IFR to MVFR
conditions to account for this possibility.

Throughout the day, clouds will be on the increase with the
approach of the aforementioned disturbance. Ceilings will
develop later this morning into this afternoon, but heights will
be well within VFR thresholds.

Winds throughout the 06z cycle will be relatively light out of
the northeast. Sustained speeds will range from 3-6 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Gant