Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 312324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air and high pressure will build southward from northern
New England tonight into Thursday morning. Low pressure off the
New England coast will retrograde westward late Thursday into
Friday morning, bringing clouds and some showers to the region.
Mainly fair conditions with seasonable temperatures return for
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clearing still slowly builds south and west. Scattered showers
in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley tracking
south and west and dissipating. Just some minor adjustments to
temperatures, sky cover and rain chances based on current data
and trends. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below...

The drier air to the north/northeast should continue settling
south and west this evening, albeit slowing down. There remains
considerable uncertainty as to the southern extent of clearing,
as moisture beneath an inversion may hold tight for at least the
eastern Catskills, and possibly into the mid Hudson Valley into
the southern Berkshires/NW CT. For now, have indicated gradual
clearing north of I-90 through midnight, slowing the process to
the south.

Assuming clearing occurs to the north/northeast, given current
dewpoints still in the lower 30s, there could be patchy fog
forming, at least in the upper Hudson Valley/southern
Adirondacks and southern VT. More uncertainty again farther
south where a higher based strato-cu deck may persist and/or
redevelop.

If the skies clear across northern areas, lows could easily fall
into the 20s, perhaps even low/mid 20s. Expect mainly upper 20s
to mid 30s farther south where more clouds are expected, at
least at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday-Wednesday night, aforementioned area of dry air should
remain across the region as high pressure ridges south from
eastern Canada, with enhanced subsidence possibly developing
well north/west of the developing offshore storm system. Highs
Wednesday 50-55 within valleys, and 45-50 across higher
elevations. However, the possibility for deeper mixing and
warmer temps within valley areas exists (perhaps reaching closer
to 60 in some areas). Chilly again Wednesday night with lows in
the mid 20s to lower 30s, except possibly colder across portions
of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley.

Thursday-Thursday night, deepening offshore storm system is
expected to eventually retrograde toward the New England coast
late Thursday into Thursday night. A surge of low/mid level
moisture should approach from the northeast/east late Thursday
afternoon with increasing clouds, and perhaps showers for areas
mainly east of the Hudson River prior to sunset. However, before
this occurs, enhanced subsidence could allow for a period of
sunshine and mild temps within and west of the Hudson River
Valley through early afternoon. For now, forecast highs in this
area generally 50-55, with 45-50 across western New England, but
again, the possibility for "overachievement" for max temps
exists, especially within the Hudson Valley and points west
should more sunshine persist. Showers should increase in areal
coverage along and especially east of the Hudson River Valley
Thursday night. It also should become breezy Thursday afternoon
and night given a tightening low level pressure gradient, in
addition to deeper mixing potential Thursday afternoon. North to
northeast winds could reach 25-35 mph within the Hudson Valley
into western New England during this time. Some wet snow could
occur across the highest elevations Thursday night, especially
in the Catskills for elevations above 1800 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Western periphery of upper closed low offshore expected to continue
to affect our weather through the weekend.  There are disagreements
in the timing and strength of upper energy tracking southeast out of
Canada through our region with potential scattered showers. There is
a better consensus on improving weather through Friday.  Some
scattered showers Friday morning should end then decreasing clouds
Friday afternoon. Breezy winds expected and temperatures into the
40s to lower 50s.

Intervals of clouds and sun the rest of the weekend with some
questions about the potential for isolated to scattered showers,
again, depending on the track and timing of upper energy tracking
out of Canada.  Highs Saturday around 50 to mid 50s.  Highs Sunday
in the 50s with near 60 southern areas.

Upper ridging slowly builds east into our region later Sunday
through Tuesday but again, uncertainty about upper energy brushing
our region in the gradual warm advection on the northwestern
periphery of the upper ridging. Still, slow warming is expected.
Highs in the 50s to around 60 Monday and Tuesday with lower 60s
southern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR ceilings will become scattered at KGFL and KALB through this
evening. MVFR ceilings will trend to VFR at KPSF and some
intervals of scattered are likely later this evening and
through daybreak. KPOU likely to stay overcast with a VFR
ceiling much of the night. Visibilities are expected to stay VFR
everywhere through tonight with a drying trend.

Intervals of clouds and sun through Wednesday but clouds should
remain well above 3000 feet as visibilities also remain VFR.

Wind will be variable at 5 kt or less across all sites through
tonight. Wind will then be out of the north to northeast near
10 Kt tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air and high pressure will build southward from northern
New England tonight into Thursday morning. Low pressure off the
New England coast will retrograde westward late Thursday into
Friday morning, bringing clouds and some showers to the region.
Mainly fair conditions with seasonable temperatures return for
the upcoming weekend.

RH values should recover to 80-100 percent tonight, then fall
to 25-35 percent Wednesday afternoon. RH should recover to
80-100 percent Wednesday night.

North to northeast winds of 5-10 mph are expected tonight, and
10-20 mph Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread flooding is expected in the ALY HSA over the next
several days.

Little in the way of precipitation is expected through Thursday
morning. Spotty light rain or showers will redevelop late
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with amounts
generally remaining under one quarter of an inch (with greatest
amounts for areas east of the Hudson River, as well as the
northeast Catskills.)

Latest river observations and NERFC forecasts indicate river
levels remaining below action stage, although some may crest
just under action stage across the upper Hudson Valley (i.e.,
Hadley/Hudson R) this afternoon. Slower responding Riverbank
may also approach action stage tonight into Wednesday.
Otherwise, river levels should generally slowly recede later
this week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/Wasula



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