


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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559 FXUS63 KARX 122334 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 634 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - For the rest of the weekend, look for smokey skies and seasonal temperatures. - Next chance of widespread showers and storms comes Tuesday night into Wednesday. It remains too early to ascertain any severe weather potential. - Cooler for the end of next week with highs in the 70s from Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Weekend into Early Next Week: Smokey Skies, Mostly Dry Smoke from upstream wildfires lingers for today and Sunday, resulting in hazy skies and occasional reductions in visibility (mainly tonight into Sunday morning). Moderating northwesterly flow on the backside of our end of week front--coupled with the smoke--keeps temperatures near or slightly below seasonal values for the weekend (upper 70s to mid 80s). Looking into early next week, a weak boundary shifts into the region for Monday. How far south it advances will dictate where convection is possible in the afternoon. Have added some slight chance PoPs along where the boundary likely will be, but these will need refining over the next 24-36 hours. Tue - Wed: Next Chance of Widespread Showers and Storms The main system of interest in this forecast approaches for midweek, though confidence is not overly high in the impacts to the local area. The upper level flow pivots from WNW to WSW between Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon, allowing for southerly surface flow to become reestablished over the region. A shallow negatively-tilted wave ripples in from the High Plains Monday evening and triggers a line of convection over the Dakotas and northwestern MN that slowly propagates southeastward into the evening. How far southeast the cold pool from these storms advances sets the stage for where any severe storms could develop Tuesday afternoon, At the moment, current guidance favors storms initiating over central MN into northwestern WI. Line parallel flow will limit the southeastward progression of these storms, reducing confidence in how widespread storms will be across our area before they begin to wane overnight. The boundary sweeps through during the day on Wednesday keeping the threat of showers in the forecast. Late Week: Cooler, Uncertain Rain Potential Confidence in the precipitation forecast wanes beyond midweek as discrepancies increase in the placement of perturbations that punctuate the progressive pattern. No matter how you slice the forecast, the end of the week will see temperatures fall into the 70s for highs, either through stronger cold air advection with drier conditions, or under cloudy skies with periods of showers. There is no strong signal in the longer range guidance favoring a given scenario. Overnight lows will be driven by the degree of cloud cover and could fall into the mid to upper 40s (the NBM 10th percentile) in favored spots if conditions align perfectly. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Currently monitoring some MVFR smoke just north of Interstate 94 in Minnesota. This smoke will move into the area this evening and persist into Sunday morning. In addition to this smoke, there could be some additional smoke added from fireworks. With diurnal mixing, there should be some improvement in the visibilities in the afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Boyne