555
FXUS65 KBOI 140231
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough brought numerous showers and
thunderstorms today, mainly over southwest Idaho, and have now
exited to the east this evening. Storm activity produced strong
winds in the Magic Valley, where wind gusts of around 40-55 mph
were observed. A secondary weak shortwave will skirt through
Idaho early Tuesday morning. Latest models suggest a wave of
light showers/virga will pass over the forecast area from NW to
SE during this time, but measurable precipitation is not
currently anticipated with this activity. The exception will be
over central Idaho mountains where isolated showers are expected
to continue through at least Tuesday morning. No changes needed
to current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with passing mid/high clouds and virga, except
isolated showers continuing east of KMYL in the central ID
mountains through Tuesday morning. Surface winds: variable 10 kt
or less, then W-NW 5-15 with gusts 20-25 kt by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with passing virga overnight. Surface winds: W-NW
less than 10 kt, then increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25
kt after 17z/Tue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...An upper level
trough will move east of our area tonight, bringing an end to
showers and thunderstorms by early this evening. However, a
second upper level trough will move southeast through central
Idaho late tonight into Tuesday and clip our forecast area. This
will bring a 20-30% chance of showers to the eastern half of
Valley County, but elsewhere it will remain dry. Gusty northwest
winds will develop on the back side of the trough, strongest
from Mountain Home east through the Magic Valley where gusts
around 30 mph are expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler, but will still be around 5 degrees above normal. An
upper level ridge will build overhead on Wednesday. This will
bring dry conditions and a few degrees of warming, with locally
breezy conditions continuing.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...An upper level ridge centered
off the coast will continue to bring well above normal temperatures
(5-10 degrees) and dry conditions to the forecast area Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal over the weekend
as an upper trough moves across the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies.
Little moisture expected with this trough with only about a 15-20%
chance of precipitation across Valley County and near the Nevada
border Saturday/Sunday afternoon. There is general agreement that a
more significant trough will move into the Pacific NW region Monday
of next week with a 15-20% chance of precipitation across much of
the higher terrain of SE Oregon and SW Idaho.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....TL