000
FXUS65 KBOU 231011
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
311 AM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

Snow will continue to end from west to east through the early
morning. By noon, expect the snow to be east of the forecast area
and Colorado. Additional snowfall of up to 4 inches will be
possible over Lincoln county. This combined with north winds
gusting to 40 mph will result difficult travel conditions this
morning. The Winter Storm Warning is set to expire at 11am, which
seems on track. Most of the advisories expire at 8am. Will likely
cancel the western advisories early, including the Denver area.
Will use the latest radar and satellite to determine this in the
next couple of hours. Windy conditions are expected to continue
this afternoon due to the strong pressure gradient. Areas of
blowing will occur because of the fresh snow and gusty winds. It
will be another cool day across northeast Colorado with highs
mainly in the 30s.

There will be an increase in moisture and clouds over the
mountains this afternoon and tonight. Appears there will be enough
moisture and strong enough northwest flow to squeeze out some
snow showers tonight. Additional snowfall here is expected to be
light and less than 2 inches. The downslope northwest winds will
result in mostly clear skies across northwest Colorado tonight. It
will be windy in and near the foothills with gusts to 50 mph
tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

For Sunday, the upper level pattern has the deeply wrapped low
pushing over the Great Lakes putting CO in zonal flow aloft. the
polar jet is placed to the north of the state with weak QG energy
over the region. This leaves conditions dry on Sunday under warm air
advection that will help to bring temperatures back into the 40s
after last weeks cold streak.

For the start of next week, flow remains zonal with westerly flow in
the mid levels. At the surface, models show a deepening lee side low
near the northern foothills that is projected on cross sections with
increasing downslope flow Sunday into early Monday clearing out low
and mid levels clouds with overnight temperatures in the upper teens
and 20s. Monday will stay dry with increasing clouds with highs in
the 40s to low 50s. Conditions will be much the same for Tuesday as
the system over western Canada and the Pacific NW stays north of the
state with the influence of the polar jet. At this time, models do
not show this system making its way south or impacting the state
until late Wednesday. Temperatures will reflect this slight dry
period with highs warming into the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday.

For Wednesday, models show a back door cold front entering from the
NE cooling highs slightly my mid week with temperatures in the 40s
on the plains, and 20s to 30s in the mountains. Mid and upper level
moisture will increase with enough QG and orographic lift for a
slight chance of snow in the mountains Wednesday night into
Thursday. Currently, the GFS is far more excited than the EC, but
since the EC has some returns will keep pops in the forecast for
now. By Thursday evening, the elongated upper low that was spinning
over the Pacific NW will makes its way SE with a jet streak at the
base of the upper trough. This could increase snow chances for the
higher elevations Thursday into Friday with a slight chance for the
plains. Models diverge at this point so will keep pops low for this
period. Temperatures continue to be slightly above normal with highs
in the 50s Thursday and Friday with a slight post-frontal cool down
for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 308 AM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

Snow will come to an end in the Denver area by 12Z as the storm
system continues to progress eastward. Visibility and ceilings
will improve through the morning. Low clouds are expected to
scatter out around 13Z-14Z. Light winds this morning will turn
northwesterly around 18Z with gusts to 30 knots. Skies become
mostly clear by 18Z and will remain mostly clear into Sunday.
Winds decrease after 00Z, except at KBJC where gusty west winds
will be possible through tonight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ048-
050-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ036-
039>045.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ046-047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Meier