Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 080314
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
914 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Only a few clouds located along the Front Range this evening,
which are expected to decrease in coverage overnight. No
significant changes to the forecast through tomorrow, with high
temperatures again reaching the mid to upper 90s across much of
the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Upper level ridge over the Central Rockies and Central Plains
will remain in place through Saturday. A weak short wave trough
will round the top of the ridge late tonight and Saturday. This
will cause flow aloft to bend to the southwest. At the surface, a
very weak front will push southwest across eastern Colorado late
tonight and Saturday morning. Winds will be northeasterly Saturday
morning behind this front. Low level moisture will increase,
however it will be quite shallow and mix out with the drier air,
causing dew points to plummet again. Enough moisture could remain
for a few showers and storms over far northern Colorado. A few
models show isolated convection, so will have low PoPs for this.
Also, just a slight increase in moisture over the higher terrain
south of I-70 could produce a few high based showers and storms.
Highs will be a slightly cooler, but most locations over northeast
Colorado are expected to reach the 90s again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Not much change in the overall weather pattern for the
upcoming week with generally dry conditions and continued at or
above seasonal normal temperatures for this time of year. At best,
only isolated late day storms mainly mountains and far northeast
plains.  High pressure ridge aloft will be in control across the
southern high plains resulting in a light to moderate westerly flow
over Colorado Sunday and Monday.

To start with Saturday night, will keep low pops over the far
northeast plains with that area under some better moisture in a post
frontal environment and some dry line convergence possible for an
isolated evening storm. CAPE values of 200-3000j/kg would suggest
if a storm does go up, storms may become severe. SPC has the far
northeast plains in a marginal risk and looks reasonable.

Sunday looks mostly dry again across the county warning area except
a slight chance over the mountains and the far Eastern plains
with some lingering low level moisture across the far east.
Continued hot across lower elevations with readings well into the
90s.

A weak cold front will push southward over the plains on Sunday
evening for a bit cooler temperatures on Monday and a slight
increase in thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon mainly over
mountains and higher terrain.

From Tuesday through the end of the week the large ridge of high
pressure will build slowly westward and be centered over New Mexico
by late week. This will result the flow aloft turning more southwest
while a low pressure area moves into the Northern Rockies. The
airmass will still be rather dry but maybe able to entrain some
higher moisture levels by later in the week.  For this period, again
mainly very low late day pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR conditions expected to continue through the entire TAF period
at all terminals. Drainage winds should keep wind directions
southerly at APA/DEN and westerly at BJC overnight before
switching to the northeast late Saturday morning. Otherwise dry
weather with only scattered clouds anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Very warm and dry conditions will remain over the Central Rockies
through this weekend. Relative humidity recoveries will be very poor
along slopes and ridges tonight with readings less than 30 percent.
Breezy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon with gust to
20-25mph. A few locations may meet Red Flag Criteria with the wind
gusts, but widespread winds above 25 mph are not expected.

Elevated fire weather conditions for Sunday with low humidities
but lack of any significant winds so will not be issuing any fire
weather hilites. Cooler conditions will return on Monday but
continued dry.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Hiris
FIRE WEATHER...Meier/Entrekin



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