Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030348
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
848 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Skies remain clear and the weather mild this evening. The lower
elevations got quite warm today, with highs reaching the mid to
upper 60s F in many areas of the eastern plains. Observed highs
were up to 5-6 F warmer than forecast in some areas. We adjusted
forecast high temperatures tomorrow up to be more similar to
observed temperatures today, as the setup tomorrow should be very
similar with mostly clear skies and light winds. We also increased
forecast lows tonight a few degrees to account for the warmer
highs today. Otherwise, the forecast is on track without major
changes this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Satellite pictures and observations are showing it cloud- free
over the CWA at this time. Winds are pretty light in most areas
with the exception of 15 to 35 knot west and northwesterlies over
the northeastern Larimer & northwestern Weld counties and along
the Continental Divide.

Models show upper ridging to dominate the weather for the CWA
tonight and Wednesday. The flow aloft is weak to moderate in
speeds and southwesterly to westerly both period. The synoptic
scale energy is benign both periods. Low levels winds look to to
be pretty lights too. There is no moisture advertised on the cross
sections for any of the CWA tonight and Wednesday. No QPF. NO
pops. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs look to be 0-1.5 c
warmer than today`s readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Upper level low will lift northeast through the Great Basin
Wednesday night and then move across Colorado on Thursday. At the
surface, a low forms over southeast Colorado Thursday. It then
dives southeast into Oklahoma and Texas Thursday night and Friday.
This system is fairly quick moving, and then intensifies east of
the state. This is expected to keep precipitation generally light.
With this system coming out of the southwest part of the country,
it will be a warmer system. Plus, it doesn`t tap into colder air
to the north. Expect valley rain and mountain snow to move into
the central and northern mountains Thursday morning. Precipitation
progresses eastward onto the foothills and plains Thursday
afternoon as the system advances eastward. Winds stay north to
northwest along Front Range. The lack of upslope is expected to
limit precipitation here. QG ascent and steep lapse rates still
should produce some rain and snow. Snow level will be around 6000
feet Thursday afternoon. Expect it to drop where precipitation
intensity increases and after sunset. Greatest chance for
impactful snow will be along and south of I-70 Thursday evening
and through Thursday night. This area will see the strongest winds
and will be closer to the system when it strengthens just east of
the state. Temperatures may still end up too warm for snowfall
though.

Precipitation will end by Friday morning and northerly flow aloft
will prevail. Temperatures will rebound Friday under ample
sunshine, but northerly flow will keep temperatures near normal.
Ridging races across Colorado Friday and will be east of the area
early Saturday. Southwest flow on the heels of the ridge will
bring warmer air into the region. Highs are expected to be in the
60s across northeast Colorado Saturday.

A fast moving short wave trough will track across the region
Sunday. The ECMWF shows it moving across Colorado, while the GFS
has it tracking across Wyoming. Will have PoPs in the mountains
for this system. Either scenario should result in downslope flow
and dry conditions east of the mountains. Expect to see a slight
drop in temperatures Sunday, but readings should stay above
normal.

For early next week, models are not in decent agreement yet. A
quick moving trough should move across the state Monday or
Tuesday, depends on which model you use. As this time, appears the
mountains will see a period of snow with gusty downslope winds
east of the mountains. Will keep temperatures mild and limit the
chance for precipitation to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 747 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the TAF period
with mostly clear skies. A weak boundary has shifted light SE
winds this evening to the NE, but they should soon return to a
light SE before turning to drainage tonight. Expect similar winds
tomorrow, with light SE winds during the day turning to drainage
in the late evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Direnzo
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Meier
AVIATION...Direnzo


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