-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
391
FXUS61 KBTV 230512
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1212 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold conditions will continue through tonight as an arctic
airmass remains the region. Temperatures are forecast to moderate
towards the end of the week with periods of snow showers expected
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1201 AM EST Thursday...Virga continues with no real sign
that snow is hitting the ground yet. Hourly temperatures are
running slightly above the forecast tonight, but overall
forecast is well on track with southerly winds and widespread
clouds.

Previous discussion...
Although no Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for
tonight, it will continue to be blustery with overnight lows
generally in the single digits and wind chills below zero. Cloud
cover will gradually increase tonight ahead of an approaching
upper- level shortwave, which combined with increasing southerly
flow, will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than the
last few nights.

An upper level shortwave will bring some chances for light snow
showers across northern New York and the Adirondacks with plenty of
cloud cover across the region Thursday into Friday. This feature
will be rather moisture starved, which will limit snowfall
accumulations. Temperatures on Thursday will still be cold and below
normal for this time of year, but several degrees warmer than the
last couple of days. Daytime highs will climb into the teens and
lower 20s, while overnight lows will primarily be in the single
digits.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EST Wednesday...Our overall warming trend will pause
briefly on Friday due to subtle cold air advection. 850 mb
temperatures will fall from -13C Thursday towards -19C Friday, so
anticipate surface temperatures a few degrees cooler on Friday.
Highs are forecast in the teens to low 20s during the day. Some very
light lingering snow showers are possible over higher elevations
Friday morning as a shortwave trough moves through and eventually
closes into a closed low near the NEK by Saturday morning. Very
shallow depth of moisture will limit coverage of snow showers to
just higher elevations, and daytime accumulations will generally be
a dusting if anything. Will see a drying trend through the day and a
trend towards partly to mostly sunny skies toward the evening.
Surface ridging will crest just to our south Saturday morning while
the upper low shifts east, so anticipate some areas to clear out
overnight. Lows will be in the single digits below zero for eastern
Vermont and the northern Adirondacks, and in the single digits above
zero in valley locations. Winds will generally be light overnight,
so wind chills will not be a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 249 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures will moderate going into
the weekend as the center of the ridge shifts east and return
southerly flow develops. By Saturday, highs will reach into the low
to upper 20s, and by Sunday some valley locations may briefly even
tick above freezing. Another clipper system will move through
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing another quick shot of light
snow to the area. Best chances for snow accumulations will be in
the higher elevations, where orographic lift will help snow
accumulations. While our official snow forecast only goes out
through Saturday, ECENS and GEFS ensemble guidance suggests most of
the area will pickup less than an inch of snow over the weekend, if
anything. The one exception will be areas of the northern
Adirondacks, where low level moisture will be locally higher off of
Lake Ontario and a few inches of snow are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Friday...Ceilings are running about 7000-0900 feet
above ground level tonight and are expected to remain at VFR
levels throughout the next 24 hours with the exception of MSS
and SLK. A lowering ceiling trend is anticipated through 06Z
Friday, allowing SLK and MSS ceilings to reach about 1800-3000
feet AGL by about 02Z-04Z Friday.

Visibilities will need to be monitored as virga continues to
fight dry air at the surface tonight and Thursday. Most likely
sites to see snow restricting visibilities will be SLK, EFK, and
MSS, though the first two are only about 30% chance at the
moment. Visibilities are not expected to lower below 6 miles
before 11Z or 12Z Thursday. After that however, visibilities
could lower to anywhere from 2 to 5 miles depending on the
timing of lake effect snow showers as well as a surface trough.

Winds southerly to southeasterly will continue and/or shift a
bit more southwesterly throughout the next 24 hours with gusts
20-30 knots continuing at BTV through about 21Z Thursday. While
other sites may have some gusty winds as well, it is looking
more likely for those outside BTV to generally have winds 10
knots or under.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kremer/Storm
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Storm