Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201351 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 951 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the North Country will continue to provide fair and dry conditions through Sunday with warm afternoon highs and seasonably cool overnight lows. An upper low moving east from the Great Lakes will bring a round of showers early Monday morning through Tuesday, with high pressure returning for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 949 AM EDT Friday...Not much to speak of this morning with the current forecast well on track. Some scattered cirrus has moved over the region this morning and should linger through much of the day. The clouds shouldn`t have much impact with temperatures still warming into the lower to upper 70s. Enjoy the nice late summer North Country afternoon. Previous Discussion...Chamber of Commerce weather continues across the North Country for the next 36 hours with continued fair and dry conditions expected. Difference for today compared to the past few days will be a noticeable increase in sky cover as the forecast area is now situated on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Lakes. Scattered mid/high clouds rounding the crest of the ridge will continue to stream north to south across the CWA through the day providing some filtered sunshine, but with 925-850mb temps warming into the plus-teens celsius, afternoon highs will rise well above seasonal normals into the mid/upper 70s. Outside of some lowering clouds across north-central and northeast Vermont, tonight should see a gradual clearing of mid/high clouds across most of the region with lows several degrees warmer than the previous night in the upper 40s to upper 50s. On Saturday, the upper ridge centers over the area with temps warming aloft a few more degrees supporting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Should be an almost clouds-less day as well, with perhaps a few cirrus streaming in from the northwest in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night into Sunday we begin the transition to southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels as an upstream trough takes shape over the Upper Midwest. Warm air advection will be taking place along with moisture advection. As a result...warmer overnight lows are expected Saturday night with readings in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s...which will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite the moisture advection no precipitation is expected as forcing remains well to the west of the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Friday...Trends in the data support the idea of a little slower timing to the onset of precipitation Sunday night into Monday as upper trough remains well west of the region. At this time it appears northern New York will have the best chance for showers late Sunday night with activity eventually spreading into Vermont on Monday. Precipitation will be fairly widespread on Monday and have increased precipitation chances into the likely to low categorical range for most of the area. And it now appears the showers will hold on a it longer as upper trough wants to close off over the area late Monday night into Tuesday before exiting to the east. Going forecast has this covered well and have continued to hold onto precipitation during this period. Also of note in the Monday-Tuesday time period is the transition to cooler 925 millibar temperatures. Highs on Monday will generally be in the 70s...but only in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday with clouds and showers helping to keep temperatures down. Despite the upper trough closing off over the Northeast it remains progressive and thus drier weather returns Tuesday night through Wednesday night before next shortwave trough approaches on Thursday and starts to increase precipitation chances later in the day. A slow warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of LIFR fog at KMPV through 14Z. Otherwise, FEW-SCT150 deck will shift over the region through mid-day before scattering out this afternoon/evening. Light and variable winds this morning trend south/southwest at 5-8kts through the day, then back to light and variable after sunset. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff

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