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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 100220
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1020 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and cool conditions will continue through Saturday as
our region remains under the influence of a large upper level
low centered over New England. A brief ridge of high pressure
will bring drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures for
Sunday, but unsettled conditions return thereafter as another
upper low will settle over the region and provide daily chances
for showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1015 PM EDT Friday...Showers have almost completely
dwindled across the forecast area tonight with some breaks in
clouds allowing fog to flare up, especially in the valleys of
the Adirondacks. Low-lying clouds are being reported around
south- central Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley.
With all the recent rain, patchy fog could occur virtually
anywhere across the North Country tonight as breaks in clouds
become more and more frequent. Temperatures falling into the
50s currently, approaching lows. Overall, forecast is on track.
Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Only isolated shower activity is expected
overnight, and where we see breaks in the clouds there will
once again be fog and or stratus development, similar to last
night. Have continued with previous forecasters idea of just
putting patchy fog everywhere, because it will be difficult to
figure out where the breaks in the clouds will occur and lead to
the patchy fog. Lows will dip into the upper 30s in the Dacks,
mainly mid 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the region. Upper
level low will finally begin to shift east of our region on
Saturday. We will still see some afternoon showers, but expect
less coverage than today and yesterday. Tomorrow is looking more
stable than today, and with lack of thunder today felt okay
leaving it out of the forecast for tomorrow. High temperatures
on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, and
hopefully with some sunshine by the afternoon into the evening.
Weather conditions will be pretty quiet Saturday night and low
temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...A brief upper level ridge moves
overhead as our persistent upper low shifts east. There will be
some warm air advection in the mid-levels during the day, but it
looks like surface destabilization occurs before we become
capped by late afternoon. It`s only about 300-400 J/kg of CAPE,
which should leave it mainly as some heavier showers with a
localized rumble of thunder or two. Dry air should keep coverage
isolated to scattered, with high temperatures climbing into the
mid 70s to near 80. A warm front will lift north Sunday night,
with additional rain expected. How much will depend on two
factors. One is the strength of a LLJ. While it could result in
efficient moisture advection, it will also cause some terrain
shadowing if it`s strong enough. The other is the strength of
the deformation axis. For example, the 06z GFS` deformation
shows sharp divergence at 700mb, while most guidance has limited
westerly flow in the mid- levels to establish a strong
deformation zone and has a weaker warm front as a result.
Regardless, some increasing PoPs, particularly over New York is
expected. Warm advection will keep the region somewhat warmer,
with temperatures mostly remaining in the 50s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...Numerical weather prediction starts
diverging further apart by Monday with timing differences and
how quickly a developing surface cyclone occludes. Both
situations would support at least some rain. A faster solution
(GFS/CMC) would shift the occluded front quickly eastward Monday
morning, and we destabilize enough in the dry slot of an upper
low that we produce some scattered showers. A slower solution
(EC/ICON) would have a drier start to Monday and then let the
occluded front slide east Monday evening into the overnight.
Ensemble probabilities suggest rainfall amounts will range
between 0.50" to 1.00" across both Monday and Tuesday with a few
locally higher amounts possible.

As the week continues, we return to another persistent upper
low with near to slightly below normal temperatures and
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms for the
remainder of the week. The busiest day appears to be Wednesday.
The core of the upper low will be right overhead, and with
daytime heating, we should realize about 400-750 J/kg of CAPE.
Shear will be minimal. So a high likelihood of showers and a few
garden variety thunderstorms appears on tap next Wednesday.
Going forward, we don`t seem to destabilize as much each day,
and the PoP trend starts to come back down.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Challenging aviation forecast overnight
with coverage of fog/low stratus uncertain. Scattered showers
will end by 02z Saturday, and expect clouds to become SCT-BKN.
Where clearing occurs, patchy fog along with MVFR/IFR conditions
will be possible, especially in those locations that received
significant rainfall today. Even in those sites that don`t get
fog, expect a period of lowered ceilings to 1500-2500 ft,
generally 08z-12z. Conditions improve to VFR areawide
thereafter, with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
developing once again by the afternoon. Light and variable
winds overnight will pick up to 4-8 kt from the north/northwest
after 13z Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles