National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry day is expected across the North Country today with
temperatures finally reaching above normal. Look for highs in
the 40s along with a good deal of sunshine. Our next chance for
precipitation will be on Thursday with rain at the lower
elevations and snow in the mountains. Better chances for
widespread valley rain and mountain snows will come Friday into
early Saturday as a strengthening low pressure system moves into
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 736 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in real good shape
with only minor tweaks to temperatures...dew points...and sky
cover to better match the wide range of conditions going on over
the area this morning.

Previous Discussion...
Flow aloft backs to the west and southwest today with warm air
advection taking place. This will allow for temperatures to
finally climb above seasonal normals as low level temperatures
warm several degrees from values observed yesterday. As a result
we should see highs in the 40s today with a good deal of
sunshine.

Trends in the data suggest upstream upper trough forming to our west
will be slow to move toward our region. This means there should be a
delay in precipitation across the area with some showers getting
into parts of northern New York well after midnight tonight.
Increasing clouds and moisture within the southwest flow aloft
should keep low temperatures tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The
precipitation over northern New York would therefore be a mix of
rain or snow.

Eventually the upper trough moves toward the region on Thursday and
we will see a shortwave trough also developing to our south that
will eventually move up into our region. This will help to increase
precipitation chances as the day wears on. Highs once again will be
in the 40s for precipitation to be in the form of rain...but
mountain temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s and thus
looking at some snow. Any high elevation snow amounts will generally
be an inch or less as steadier precipitation does not move in until
the Thursday night through Saturday time period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Wednesday...Dynamic support increases
substantially over the area Thursday night and Friday as
shortwave trough lifts north up across the region Thursday night
followed by the upper trough moving in on Friday and eventually
forming into a closed upper system Friday night into Saturday.
Thus looking at widespread precipitation Thursday night and much
of Friday. Temperatures Thursday night will be in the low to
mid 30s and thus looking at a mix of rain and snow in the lower
elevations...but snow in the mountains. At this time could see 1
to 3 inches of snow Thursday night in the mountains with an
inch or less in the lower elevations. Enough warming takes place
on Friday with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s expected. This
will confine any additional snowfall to the highest elevations
with rain expected elsewhere. Eventually late in the day on
Friday we will get on the backside of the upper circulation and
this will set the stage for a very favorable upslope snow
pattern Friday night into Saturday with northwest flow bringing
colder air back into the region and create the optimal
perpendicular flow to the terrain for additional mountain snow.
Will be watching this situation closely as we may be needing
headlines for this event. See extended period discussion for
additional details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Wednesday...While the models are slowing
coming into closer agreement, some differences remain. Upslope
snow showers will continue Friday night and into Saturday, with
northern counties and higher terrains potentially seeing some
significant overnight totals. While the GFS is more conservative,
with at few inches of snow, the ECMWF is much more aggressive,
bringing solid advisory level snowfall through Saturday morning.

Low pressure moves off to the northeast Saturday evening, leading to
a rather quiet weekend, though the continued northwest flow will
keep temperatures seasonably cool with most areas struggling to get
above freezing. Sunday will see a quick reprieve of cold
temperatures as flow shifts back to the west-southwest and highs
bounce back to normal to slightly above normal. Monday and Tuesday
will a return below normal temperatures as next week again begins a
cold start to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions and light winds will
persist through the forecast period. Light SSW winds of
generally less than 10 kts is expected throughout the day before
switching to SSE after 00Z. Skies will see mainly scattered high
to mid level clouds slowly increasing to broken skies after
00Z.


Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy