Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150543 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 143 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North Country. The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday night through Monday as a cold front pushes across the region. After the frontal passage, cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast is generally on track. Winds have gone calm in most areas, allowing temperatures to plummet into the upper 50s and low 60s in valley locations, except those very near to a river or lake, with many areas in the Champlain Valley still near 70 degrees at 10 PM. So some tweaks were made to temperatures for the overnight, which mostly bring values down a little bit and help suggest even more widespread coverage of patchy fog. Therefore, under continued excellent radiational cooling conditions, added fog in the pre- daybreak hours around the various lakes in the Adirondack region and southern Champlain Valley. Seeing clouds move into Orange county in Vermont as well as Rutland and Windsor counties, so while we will monitor trends, no precipitation is expected with this activity. Have a good night! Previous Discussion... The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be a good one. High pressure will continue to build south out of Canada tonight and spread over much of New England through Saturday night. This will keep the weather dry through the period. Patchy fog will once again be possible in the favored river valleys tonight into early Saturday. Otherwise, tonight will feature mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 50s to around 60. A few of the more sheltered valleys could dip into the 40s by daybreak Saturday. The high pressure will remain nosed into our region on Saturday. Meanwhile, the disturbance currently positioned off the Mid Atlantic coast, which could become a tropical disturbance or Tropical Storm Kyle later today or tonight, will quickly scoot to the northeast, remaining well to our south and away from the coast. However, east to southwest flow will begin to develop between this feature and the ridge, and this will in turn begin to usher in a bit more moisture into our area Saturday. The main impact would just be increasing cloud cover, though a stray mountain shower can`t be totally ruled out Saturday afternoon. The best moisture won`t move in until Saturday night however, so any precipitation that does develop will be light and fairly isolated in nature. Showers will wane in the evening once the sun sets, leaving partly cloudy skies behind. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid/upper 70s in eastern VT to the lower/mid 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s to around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather for most of Sunday, with a chance of light showers late in the day. A narrow, deep-layer ridge moves eastward and a new area of low pressure begins to develop south of Long Island. This will cause easterly flow that advects recycled maritime air into our area. Anticipate increasing cloud cover with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few showers could develop as weak isentropic lift takes place Sunday evening, but think activity will be limited due to the lack of deep-layer moisture. Winds become increasingly southerly overnight ahead of the next frontal system, and with ample cloud cover, it will likely be in the 50s to mid 60s across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Southern stream shortwave and its associated moisture are likely to remain well to our south, while a northern stream shortwave lags behind it heading into Monday. Thus scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the northern stream shortwave approaches Monday. Favorable frontogenetic forcing and deformation should lie north of our area, and we also will not realize much surface based instability owing to the arrival of the system late Monday morning/early afternoon only allowing highs reach the mid 70s to near 80. At least some PVA and upper divergence will be present from a weak jet streak and the negative tilt of the trough, and there will be at least 25 knots of 0-6km shear present. Thus, a broken line of showers with embedded thunder and light to locally moderate rain is expected. The system will come through in classic BTV fashion, with a prefrontal trough followed by the main front late Monday into early Tuesday. So at least a couple rounds of showers will be possible. Preliminary estimates for rainfall totals range from 0.10"-0.33". Heading into the middle of next week, a somewhat anomalous upper trough positions itself just to our west. This should net us a couple cool days and dry weather until the next system approaches late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions overnight with perhaps just some BR at MPV and SLK. Have used tempo to highlight potential ifr conditions at mpv with mvfr at slk. Any fog/br will lift by 12z with vfr and light north winds prevailing today at 4 to 8 knots. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Neiles/Taber

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