Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 100220 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showery and cool conditions will continue through Saturday as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low centered over New England. A brief ridge of high pressure will bring drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures for Sunday, but unsettled conditions return thereafter as another upper low will settle over the region and provide daily chances for showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1015 PM EDT Friday...Showers have almost completely dwindled across the forecast area tonight with some breaks in clouds allowing fog to flare up, especially in the valleys of the Adirondacks. Low-lying clouds are being reported around south- central Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. With all the recent rain, patchy fog could occur virtually anywhere across the North Country tonight as breaks in clouds become more and more frequent. Temperatures falling into the 50s currently, approaching lows. Overall, forecast is on track. Previous discussion below: Previous discussion...Only isolated shower activity is expected overnight, and where we see breaks in the clouds there will once again be fog and or stratus development, similar to last night. Have continued with previous forecasters idea of just putting patchy fog everywhere, because it will be difficult to figure out where the breaks in the clouds will occur and lead to the patchy fog. Lows will dip into the upper 30s in the Dacks, mainly mid 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the region. Upper level low will finally begin to shift east of our region on Saturday. We will still see some afternoon showers, but expect less coverage than today and yesterday. Tomorrow is looking more stable than today, and with lack of thunder today felt okay leaving it out of the forecast for tomorrow. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, and hopefully with some sunshine by the afternoon into the evening. Weather conditions will be pretty quiet Saturday night and low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Friday...A brief upper level ridge moves overhead as our persistent upper low shifts east. There will be some warm air advection in the mid-levels during the day, but it looks like surface destabilization occurs before we become capped by late afternoon. It`s only about 300-400 J/kg of CAPE, which should leave it mainly as some heavier showers with a localized rumble of thunder or two. Dry air should keep coverage isolated to scattered, with high temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to near 80. A warm front will lift north Sunday night, with additional rain expected. How much will depend on two factors. One is the strength of a LLJ. While it could result in efficient moisture advection, it will also cause some terrain shadowing if it`s strong enough. The other is the strength of the deformation axis. For example, the 06z GFS` deformation shows sharp divergence at 700mb, while most guidance has limited westerly flow in the mid- levels to establish a strong deformation zone and has a weaker warm front as a result. Regardless, some increasing PoPs, particularly over New York is expected. Warm advection will keep the region somewhat warmer, with temperatures mostly remaining in the 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Friday...Numerical weather prediction starts diverging further apart by Monday with timing differences and how quickly a developing surface cyclone occludes. Both situations would support at least some rain. A faster solution (GFS/CMC) would shift the occluded front quickly eastward Monday morning, and we destabilize enough in the dry slot of an upper low that we produce some scattered showers. A slower solution (EC/ICON) would have a drier start to Monday and then let the occluded front slide east Monday evening into the overnight. Ensemble probabilities suggest rainfall amounts will range between 0.50" to 1.00" across both Monday and Tuesday with a few locally higher amounts possible. As the week continues, we return to another persistent upper low with near to slightly below normal temperatures and scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. The busiest day appears to be Wednesday. The core of the upper low will be right overhead, and with daytime heating, we should realize about 400-750 J/kg of CAPE. Shear will be minimal. So a high likelihood of showers and a few garden variety thunderstorms appears on tap next Wednesday. Going forward, we don`t seem to destabilize as much each day, and the PoP trend starts to come back down. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Challenging aviation forecast overnight with coverage of fog/low stratus uncertain. Scattered showers will end by 02z Saturday, and expect clouds to become SCT-BKN. Where clearing occurs, patchy fog along with MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible, especially in those locations that received significant rainfall today. Even in those sites that don`t get fog, expect a period of lowered ceilings to 1500-2500 ft, generally 08z-12z. Conditions improve to VFR areawide thereafter, with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms developing once again by the afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up to 4-8 kt from the north/northwest after 13z Sat. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.