Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201137 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 737 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Another dry day is expected across the North Country today with temperatures finally reaching above normal. Look for highs in the 40s along with a good deal of sunshine. Our next chance for precipitation will be on Thursday with rain at the lower elevations and snow in the mountains. Better chances for widespread valley rain and mountain snows will come Friday into early Saturday as a strengthening low pressure system moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 736 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in real good shape with only minor tweaks to temperatures...dew points...and sky cover to better match the wide range of conditions going on over the area this morning. Previous Discussion... Flow aloft backs to the west and southwest today with warm air advection taking place. This will allow for temperatures to finally climb above seasonal normals as low level temperatures warm several degrees from values observed yesterday. As a result we should see highs in the 40s today with a good deal of sunshine. Trends in the data suggest upstream upper trough forming to our west will be slow to move toward our region. This means there should be a delay in precipitation across the area with some showers getting into parts of northern New York well after midnight tonight. Increasing clouds and moisture within the southwest flow aloft should keep low temperatures tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The precipitation over northern New York would therefore be a mix of rain or snow. Eventually the upper trough moves toward the region on Thursday and we will see a shortwave trough also developing to our south that will eventually move up into our region. This will help to increase precipitation chances as the day wears on. Highs once again will be in the 40s for precipitation to be in the form of rain...but mountain temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s and thus looking at some snow. Any high elevation snow amounts will generally be an inch or less as steadier precipitation does not move in until the Thursday night through Saturday time period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Wednesday...Dynamic support increases substantially over the area Thursday night and Friday as shortwave trough lifts north up across the region Thursday night followed by the upper trough moving in on Friday and eventually forming into a closed upper system Friday night into Saturday. Thus looking at widespread precipitation Thursday night and much of Friday. Temperatures Thursday night will be in the low to mid 30s and thus looking at a mix of rain and snow in the lower elevations...but snow in the mountains. At this time could see 1 to 3 inches of snow Thursday night in the mountains with an inch or less in the lower elevations. Enough warming takes place on Friday with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s expected. This will confine any additional snowfall to the highest elevations with rain expected elsewhere. Eventually late in the day on Friday we will get on the backside of the upper circulation and this will set the stage for a very favorable upslope snow pattern Friday night into Saturday with northwest flow bringing colder air back into the region and create the optimal perpendicular flow to the terrain for additional mountain snow. Will be watching this situation closely as we may be needing headlines for this event. See extended period discussion for additional details. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Wednesday...While the models are slowing coming into closer agreement, some differences remain. Upslope snow showers will continue Friday night and into Saturday, with northern counties and higher terrains potentially seeing some significant overnight totals. While the GFS is more conservative, with at few inches of snow, the ECMWF is much more aggressive, bringing solid advisory level snowfall through Saturday morning. Low pressure moves off to the northeast Saturday evening, leading to a rather quiet weekend, though the continued northwest flow will keep temperatures seasonably cool with most areas struggling to get above freezing. Sunday will see a quick reprieve of cold temperatures as flow shifts back to the west-southwest and highs bounce back to normal to slightly above normal. Monday and Tuesday will a return below normal temperatures as next week again begins a cold start to the week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the forecast period. Light SSW winds of generally less than 10 kts is expected throughout the day before switching to SSE after 00Z. Skies will see mainly scattered high to mid level clouds slowly increasing to broken skies after 00Z. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Definite SN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Verasamy

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