Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 242346 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 646 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system passing just to our north this evening will bring a light mix of rain and snow through Thursday morning. High pressure will then build in, allowing for mainly dry weather Thursday through Friday. Temperatures will warm up to above normal again this weekend, and will see some precipitation return over the weekend. The weekend precipitation looks to be a rain/snow mix, but still plenty of time to work out the details. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 637 PM EST Wednesday...Based on RAP mesoanalysis and observations, it looks like our surface low pressure of interest is just south of Massena, NY. It`s a piecemeal system, as per usual, for the North Country. Generally good dynamics remain in place, so intervals of rain, a rain-snow mix, or plain snow will continue this evening. Tweaked PoPs based on radar trends, but everything remains on track. Have a great evening! Previous Discussion... A weak warm front has pushed through today ahead of a low pressure system that is currently centered over southern Ontario. Have seen a few waves of some light rain/snow go through northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, mainly driven by some isentropic ascent as the warm front moved through. Remarkably, despite temperatures warming into the low 40s for much of the area, have still seen some reports of brief wet snow over the northern Champlain Valley. As we progress into the late afternoon/evening, expecting to see rain/snow mix become a little more widespread as the better dynamics associated with the low move closer to our forecast area. Will also see winds increase this evening into early overnight. Winds will originally be from the south, then veer to the west this evening, then eventually northwest after a frontal passage overnight tonight. Could see some gusts 15 to 25 mph this evening, but anything higher than that is not expected at this time. A cold front will move through around or shortly after midnight tonight, prompting temperatures to cool to below freezing for much of the area and allowing any remaining light rain to become light snow for the remainder of the night. Overnight snow will be mainly confined to higher elevations. Total QPF amounts from this afternoon through tomorrow morning will range from a few hundredths in the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys up to around a third of an inch in higher elevations of the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens. Total snow amounts will be 1-2 inches for the northern Adirondacks/northern Greens, and generally just under a half inch elsewhere. Thursday will trend dry with seasonable temperatures, followed by a chilly night Thursday night with lows in the single digits to low teens. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EST Wednesday...High pressure over the entire Northeast Friday morning will gradually move east during the day and into Friday night as well. Dry weather is expected along with increasing south to southwest winds as high moves east. This will allow temperatures to return to seasonal normals on Friday with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the pressure gradient strengthening a bit overnight on Friday we should see low temperatures during the first part of the night and then rising through the early morning hours on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 323 PM EST Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft becomes established during the Saturday through Monday time period. This will allow for an extended period of above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and low to mid 40s on Sunday. Shortwave trough moving into the region on Saturday will produce fairly widespread precipitation across the entire area, but at this time it looks like amounts will be a quarter inch or less. Thermal profile supports most of the precipitation as rain with snow at the higher elevations. Lows Saturday night will lower into the upper 20s and lower 30s. This will help to temper any extended period of snowmelt and therefore limit the threat of flooding. Another shortwave trough to move into the region on Monday and bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow to the area. Once that shortwave exits the area late Monday night into Tuesday we get into a northwest flow aloft pattern and Tuesday should see below normal temperatures before rebounding on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Low pressure system is positioned south of KMSS, and is producing rain and snow across our TAF terminals, in addition to LLWS due to 40 to 45 knot south to southwesterly winds at 2000ft agl. Conditions are currently a mix of VFR to MVFR. Precipitation type will trend towards snow around 04Z- 06Z and ceilings should fall as south winds shift towards the northwest at the same time, resulting in a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Wind speeds increase from 6 to 12 knots and gusts near 20 knots towards 12 to 16 knots with gusts to 25 knots after the winds shift. While LLWS will end at this stage, still anticipate some turbulence in the low levels. Around 10-12Z, precipitation should begin to taper towards the higher summits with ceilings and visibilities improving. Skies begin to scatter after 15Z with all sites trending VFR. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Evenson/Haynes SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Haynes

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