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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre frontal trough and surface cold front crossing the area
today will interact with heat and moisture to bring another
round of strong to locally severe thunderstorms. The primary
threats will be isolated damaging winds and brief heavy
downpours. Cooler and drier weather returns for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 726 AM EDT Monday...Showers have pushed east of the region
this morning. Seeing some breaks in the clouds this morning,
which should increase surface based instability today. Still
looks like a pretty small window for the convection today,
roughly 15-21z. Previous discussion follows.

Pre frontal trough pushes across our forecast area this morning
and will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as
surface cold front approaches and crosses the area this evening.
Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected, with main
threat being strong winds with perhaps some small hail. Ongoing
convection this morning may damper the surface based
instability a bit. But, should see enough clearing after morning
convection moves out for some destabilization and stronger
storms this afternoon. Across Vermont, maximum temperatures
should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, and with dewpoints
nearing 60 will see CAPE values surpass 1000 J/kg from the
Champlain valley eastward. Window is a bit small though, mainly
15-21z. Good upper level support as well with strong jet moving
overhead today. Additional brief heavy rainfall is possible, and
some areas have already had heavy rainfall in the past 24
hours, so will need to monitor for possible flash flooding
concerns. After showers move east of the region this morning,
looks like convection will fire between about 11 and noon. As
cold front pushes through during the evening hours, bulk of the
stronger storms will be pushed off to our east as well. SPC has
parts of our area in Slight risk for today, mainly eastern and
southern Vermont.

Overnight as flow turns northwesterly behind the departing cold
front, will have some orographically enhanced showers during
the overnight hours. Showers may even linger into Tuesday a bit
as upper trough and upper level shortwave cross the area.
Tuesday will also be much cooler than today, highs will be in
the upper 40s to lower 60s, about 20 degrees cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for the
short-term period as vertically stacked low pressure exits thru
the Canadian Maritimes, and a dry nwly flow develops across
northern NY and New England. Resulting air mass will be
relatively cool/crisp, as 850mb temperatures fall to - 1C to +1C
across the North Country by 12Z Wednesday. Any lingering rain
showers should end before midnight Tuesday night, with gradual
clearing expected throughout the overnight period. Should see
Tuesday night lows in the low-mid 40s, with highs on Wednesday
in the mid 60s following MOS-based consensus. Continued NW winds
on Wednesday at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will
contribute to dewpoints falling into the 30s with PBL
mixing/deepening throughout the day. High pressure moves in from
the west late in the day and crests across the region Wednesday
night, resulting in lessening wind speeds toward early evening.
Wednesday night will continue dry with low temperatures again
mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Monday...Relatively good consistency noted
between the operational 00Z GFS/ECMWF this cycle. Two precipitation
events are anticipated across the North Country. A mid-level
shortwave trough embedded in WNWLY flow with 80-90kt 500mb jet
will traverse the region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
With sfc low moving eswd along 850mb frontal zone, appears
mesoscale and synoptic-setting will be favorable for showers and
possible embedded thunderstorms. Carried a slight chance of
thunder at this point, and we`ll need to monitor for possible
strong thunderstorms if low-level moisture return is adequate
for higher instability than presently indicated. Valley highs on
Thursday presently expected in the lower 70s. Should see a
period of dry weather for Friday and Friday night with
seasonable temperatures. Next shortwave trough arrives
Saturday/Saturday night with periods of showers and PoPs 60-70%.
Early indications suggest drier weather returns for the latter
half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east
of our area this morning. Further convection is expected from
15-21z Monday across Southern and Central Vermont especially.
Some storms will be strong to severe this afternoon. Strong
turbulence and gusty winds to 35 kts near any convection. Winds
will trend southwesterly later this morning and gusty.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Neiles