Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061917 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Relatively cool conditions expected to continue with briefly dry weather for the rest of tonight into tomorrow. A system will approach from the west late Friday into Saturday with a narrow band of precipitation moving east into northern New York. Intervals of precipitation will be possible into the new week, trending drier into the later half of next.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 309 PM EDT Thursday...Blue skies and some stratocumulus mark the forecast today. Breezy conditions have likely also helped surfaces dry off. These 20 to 25 mph gusts will subside quickly this evening, and it looks like we`re in for an efficient radiational cooling night as surface high pressure and relatively clear skies are anticipated, tonight. Frost advisories have been issued from 1 AM to 7 AM where our growing season has begun in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will fall to around 34 to 37 in the lower valleys, with temperatures in the mid 20s to near 30 in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, and then generally near freezing for the remainder of the state. For Friday, we continue to monitor a north-south band of precipitation associated with a stretched out area of low pressure, or inverted trough should it fail to make a closed circulation, caught between the influence of a future coastal low and another mature cyclone in the James Bay in Canada. Probabilistic data continues to suggest the best rainfall totals remain west of our forecast area with a sharp gradient eastwards. This will be due to dry air advecting in from the east while default high pressure tries to anchor itself in place between these areas of lower pressure. This will leave Vermont, along with Essex and Clinton Counties of New York, dry for Friday. Meanwhile, we will see scattered showers periodically lift into the rest of upstate New York along with greater cloud cover. Thus, warmer across Vermont on Friday with temperatures in the lower 60s, but generally remaining in the mid to upper 50s across northern New York. The band of precipitation will make some headway east during the night. Overnight low temperatures for Friday night will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 309 PM EDT Thursday...North-south oriented shower band continues across the SLV and edges east into the western Adirondacks during the morning hours on Saturday before stalling and then dissipating by early evening as stretching deformation fades away. Additional rainfall amounts to average from 0.05 to 0.15 inches with some variation from KSLK westward during this period. Dry weather continues east despite ample cloud cover. High temperatures lower to mid 50s west, and 55 to 60 east. Mainly dry weather then expected for Saturday night under weak high pressure and non-descript, weak flow pattern as skies trend partly cloudy overnight. Lows a blend of available guidance - mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 309 PM EDT Thursday...The forecast remains largely unchanged from Sunday onward into next week. The overall theme is for broad troughiness to persist across the Northeast during the period with seasonably cool temperatures and the occasional chance for a few showers, especially in the northern mountains. That said, many days should feature decent stretches of dry weather. The main system in this period to affect our area later Sunday night and especially Monday when low pressure rides east from the Central Plains/Ohio Valley states. There is good model consensus on this occurring, though timing and latitudinal track differences remain evident in this morning`s solutions, with the majority favoring a flatter, more easterly path. As such, I`ve maintained solid chance PoPs during this period, but tempered values lower across northern counties where probabilities of widespread shower activity are less. Outside this time frame, PoPs were generally capped below 20 percent except for Sunday and Tuesday afternoons when values will creep into the 20/30 percent range - again, mainly in the northern mtns. Highs during the entire period from Sunday onward to average from the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the 30s/40s, or about 3 to 6 degrees below climo for the second week of May.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds at 8 to 15 knots and gusts of 18 to 24 knots will subside after 21Z, and then winds become calm to lightly terrain driven through about 12Z. Winds become southerly after 12Z with increasing cloud cover from the southwest, but generally at or above 7000 ft. agl. No precipitation expected the next 24 hours. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Friday for VTZ002-005-009. NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Haynes

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