Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160534 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and muggier weather will begin to move into the region Tuesday, along with increasing precipitation chances. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but the best chance for rain will arrive Wednesday with the remnants of Barry. The weather will remain unsettled through the end of the week, and anticipate very warm and humid conditions as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 134 AM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in real good shape and no big changes needed at this time. Should see a gradual increase in mid level clouds associated with decaying convection moving out of the eastern Great Lakes. Will monitor to see if we get any showers moving in toward daybreak...but drier air over our area suggests threat is very low. Previous Discussion... Dry weather continues overnight as high pressure centered over western NY and PA translates ewd across the region. The daytime fair weather cumulus will dissipate with the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle this evening, leaving just some thin cirrus overnight. Dewpoint depressions remain similarly large to last night, and should keep any fog development localized. With dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, it`ll be the last comfortable night for awhile; lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Precipitation chances will be on the increase tomorrow with a warm front lifting across the North Country. This will bring an influx of moisture; PWATs will surge to 1.5-2 inches by the evening. The best dynamics will remain to our north, closer to the parent low/upper trough, but expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon with warm air advection and increasing instability. Areas along the international border will have the best chances of seeing any precipitation. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Showers will gradually become more widespread Tuesday night as the remnants of Barry draw near. Dewpoints will remain in the mid and upper 60s, making for a very muggy night. Lows will be in the mid 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 440 PM EDT Monday...Increasing humidity on Wednesday with a cold front crossing our area as well as copious moisture streaming northward into our area. Expect widespread rain showers, embedded thunderstorms and heavy rainfall as well. PWATS will be pushing two inches and warm cloud depths will also be present, increasing confidence for some heavy rainfall. Temperatures on Wed will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s, dampened by clouds and precipitation which will be spreading across our area. Currently looks like heaviest precipitation will be in the afternoon. Latest guidance seems to keep most of the remnants of Barry to our South, but there`s still potential for us to get in on that deep moisture. Showers will be ending Wed night from west to east across our area along with threat for heavy rain. Temperatures will remain warm and conditions quite muggy. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 440 PM EDT Monday...A warming temperature trend is expected beginning Thu. Will have a chance for some showers especially Thu afternoon with a shortwave moving across the area as well as a warm front lifting through. Right now looks like Fri and Sat will be the warmest of the period and will need to monitor for potential heat related headlines towards the end of the week. A weak cold front will push through the region early Saturday without a lot of change in temperatures for the daytime highs Saturday afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses the area later Sunday and should finally push this airmass out. Will have to monitor any small changes in the forecast because there`s enough surface based instability for some storms to develop if we can develop some surface forcing to help trigger development. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR through the period with mainly clear skies through the remainder of the nighttime hours...just some passing high clouds. Decaying convection across Ontario will bring chance for VCSH at northern New York terminals through early morning, otherwise 4000-6000 ft scattered/broken deck of cumulus clouds throughout the daytime. Overcast deck and precipitation chances move in towards 00z as a warm front approaches the area. Winds overnight will be light and variable turning south/southwesterly between 07-10 knots by 14z tomorrow. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...LaRocca

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