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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of storms will develop today, mainly after 2 PM as
a cold front moves through. Some of these storms may be severe,
with strong winds and large hail as the primary threats. Behind
the front, cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected
to start the work week. The next chances for precipitation will
be Wednesday night onward as a low lifts through the area.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...The day is off to a warm and muggy start
overall after a night of nocturnal thunderstorms moving through
the area. As of 4 AM, thunderstorms are exiting northeastern
Vermont and only a few light showers remain on the radar.
Overall trend for the remainder of the morning will be drier,
but areas of mist and fog are likely as we go towards dawn.

Temperatures will warm towards the mid to upper 80s today over
Vermont, but northern New York will be much cooler with highs
staying in the low to mid 70s.  A cold front positioned just to our
west will sweep through late this afternoon into this evening.
The air mass will once again be primed for thunderstorm
development ahead of the front, especially from the Champlain
Valley eastward where the warmest daytime temperatures are
expected. Forecast soundings suggesting CAPE values 1000 to 2000
J/kg over the eastern half of our forecast area today, so no
shortage of instability in this air mass. Best deep layer shear
will again be to our west today, though models suggest there
will be slightly better overlap between 30+ kt 0-6 km shear and
best axis of instability than we saw yesterday, which will
support better development and organization of storms. Overall,
main area of thunderstorms will be tied to a pre-frontal trough
and then to the cold front as the main forcing mechanism. This
means today`s storms are a little more predictable than
yesterday`s, and we have higher confidence in scattered storms
developing over Vermont between 2 PM and 4 PM today, becoming
more numerous after 4 PM. Primary convective mode will be
multi-cell clusters/linear, and forecast soundings continue to
suggest strong winds and large hail to be the main threats. The
Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of our forecast
area outlined in a Slight risk for severe weather today.

Once the front sweeps through, we`ll quickly trend drier tonight
as temperatures fall into the low 40s to around 50 by Monday
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...The Monday through Tuesday timeframe will
feature quiet and cooler weather for the North Country. Large
ridge of surface high pressure will build into the region from
Canada. High temperatures on Monday will be quite a bit cooler
than the past several days, max temps will peak in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. The high will crest north of our region on Monday
night, leading to the coolest night that we`ve had in awhile.
Lows will dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Then temperatures
will return to seasonal normals for Tuesday as the high begins
to slide eastward and southerly return flow redevelops. Max
temps will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. No chance for
precipitation over this 36 hour period, pops nil.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1029 PM EDT Saturday...Conditions will then remain dry
through Wednesday evening as strong deep layer ridging keeps
moisture well to our west. A surface low is expected to develop
as an upper trough moves east of the Rockies and tracks towards
the Great Lakes. By Wednesday night, that system`s warm front
will lift northwards with rain propagating east parallel to the
front as moisture ridges the crest of the upper ridge. The
center of a 500 hPa high will shift northwards and intensify a
bit, which may push the bulk of that precipitation north of the
area, which is in line with the GFS. A weaker 500 hPa high would
bring moderate, perhaps heavy, rain across our area, as the
ECMWF depicts. Given it`s about 5 days out, will remain close to
blended data, but probabilistic guidance hints a bit more
centered over our area. A negatively tilted shortwave follows
right on the heels of that system, with a surface low developing
along the frontal boundary of the system ahead of it that then
ejects northeastwards. This sends another wave of high theta-E
air Thursday night into Friday morning, but precipitation seems
scattered in nature at this time. This leaves plenty of clouds
lying around Friday afternoon, but development of a modest cold
front should provide a focus for convection and additional
chances for moderate to heavy rain.

Beyond Friday, trends in the data support a return to drier
weather and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A line of thunderstorms is currently over
the northern Champlain Valley as of 130 AM. These fast moving
storms are tracking east/northeast, affecting KPBG, KBTV, and
KEFK over the next couple of hours. Primary threats with these
storms is just some gusty winds up to 30 mph and some locally
heavy rainfall that may result in a quick drop in visibility to
between 1 and 3 SM. Once these storms clear the area, will
remain dry through late morning, but some MVFR ceilings are
expected at KSLK and KEFK through 12Z. Other sites should be
predominantly VFR overnight.

A cold front will move through between 18Z and 03Z, accompanied
by some thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be severe, with
wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and up to 1 inch hail possible.
Some MVFR ceilings are possible along and behind the front, but
will gradually lift to VFR closer to 06Z.

Winds will be 10 knots or less through 12Z, but then pick up out
of the south and southwest with gusts to 20 knots after
18Z. Winds will then become west/northwest behind the front,
gradually diminishing in intensity to 12 knots or less towards
06Z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Evenson/Haynes
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...WFO BTV