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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 222333
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through
Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer
temperatures. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday
into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the
northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...No changes needed to the forecast at
this time with clear skies and light winds to dominate tonight.

Previous Discussion...Pleasant and dry weather continues
through Monday night as deep layer high pressure builds atop the
northeast. Outside some filtered high clouds drifting into the
area later Monday night clear skies are expected through the
period. Lows seasonably cool once again tonight given ample
radiative effects under a dry ambient airmass - mainly 20s to
lower 30s. By tomorrow 925-850 mb thermal profiles warm further
supporting mid-afternoon highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s
in the mountains and lower to mid 60s in valley locations. Winds
should trend light southerly over time as the center of the
surface high edges east so just an outstanding spring day to
start the work week. Fair and dry weather continues for Monday
night under continued light south/southwesterly flow. A little
more variability is expected in overnight temperatures with
eventual readings hinging heavily on the degree to which the
nocturnal boundary layer remains mixed. For now have offered in
the upper 30s to lower 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain
Valleys with values ranging through the 30s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...Well our nice period of weather will quickly
come to an end on Weds with anticipated widespread rain event
and cooler temperatures. However still expecting increasing
mid/upper level clouds late Tuesday with temperatures climbing
well into the 60s on developing south winds. The combination of
mid/upper level ridge overhead and deep dry layer in place
especially thru 18z should produce plenty of sun in the morning
on Tuesday. Progged 850mb temps near 5c with good mixing and
adding 15c gets btv around 20c for a high on Tuesday. Thinking
near 60f slk/nek to near 70f cpv...with slightly cooler values
south because of clouds developing. Tuesday will stay dry as
leading edge of precip will fall as virga due to very dry low
levels.

By Weds...southern stream short wave energy and associated deep
moisture overspread our cwa from south to north. PWS surge near 1.0
as 1008mb low pres tracks from VA beach at 09z Weds to Portland
Maine by 06z Thurs with pres near 1000mb. This track combined with
some northern stream short wave energy will produce a widespread
rainfall across our on Weds into Thursday. Given the available
moisture and forcing and favorable track of sfc low pres...thinking
qpf will range between 0.50 and 1.0 by Thurs. Temps will struggle on
weds with clouds/precip...thinking heaviest precip arrives toward
18z...with highs only in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. Will trend
pops toward 100% on Weds, based on high confidence it will rain and
measure by 00z Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...An active period of weather is expected
as mid/upper level trof redevelops across the Great Lakes into
the NE CONUS. This general synoptic scale setup will support
above normal precip and below normal temps for days 4 thru 7.

Closed 5h and 7h circulation slowly lifts toward northern New
England by 12z Thurs...as moderate low level cold air advection
develops on brisk 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots. This helps to cool
925mb to 850mb thermal profiles below 0c by 06z Thurs dacks and 12z
northern/central Green Mountains with favorable 1000 to 700mb
moisture. Soundings show freezing levels dropping to near 2000 feet
by 12z Thursday...supporting some snow and potential accumulations
in above 1800 feet on Thurs morning. Best chance for a wet snow
accumulation would be northern Dacks and from Mt Mansfield to Jay
Peak in the central/northern Greens. Otherwise...a cold rain
continues for the valleys with lows on Thurs Morning in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. Mid/upper level trof and associated surface low pres
lifts toward northern Maine by 00z with quickly drying profiles aft
18z. Thinking clouds/precip start the morning...with some sun and
warming temps in the aftn...based on latest trends.

Late week into next weekend uncertainty increases with magnitude of
mid/upper level trof and potential of another area of low pres
impacting our fa. GFS/ECMWF differ on depth of mid/upper level trof
across the Ohio Valley and track of low pres across the eastern
conus. GFS is stronger and shows a more phased northern/southern
stream with developing low pres...supporting another round of
widespread rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile...ecmwf
shows an unphased system with weaker sfc development and scattered
precip potential, along with slightly warmer thermal profiles. Have
continued to mention high chc pops for Friday into next weekend with
highs mid 40s to mid 50s and lows generally in the upper 30s to mid
40s depending upon elevation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
next 24 hours with mainly SKC expected outside of FEW/SCT cirrus
during the day tomorrow. North-northwest winds around 5-7 knots
currently trend calm overnight, then shift to the south/southwest
after 13Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff