Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220802 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 402 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of storms will develop today, mainly after 2 PM as a cold front moves through. Some of these storms may be severe, with strong winds and large hail as the primary threats. Behind the front, cooler temperatures and dry weather can be expected to start the work week. The next chances for precipitation will be Wednesday night onward as a low lifts through the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...The day is off to a warm and muggy start overall after a night of nocturnal thunderstorms moving through the area. As of 4 AM, thunderstorms are exiting northeastern Vermont and only a few light showers remain on the radar. Overall trend for the remainder of the morning will be drier, but areas of mist and fog are likely as we go towards dawn. Temperatures will warm towards the mid to upper 80s today over Vermont, but northern New York will be much cooler with highs staying in the low to mid 70s. A cold front positioned just to our west will sweep through late this afternoon into this evening. The air mass will once again be primed for thunderstorm development ahead of the front, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward where the warmest daytime temperatures are expected. Forecast soundings suggesting CAPE values 1000 to 2000 J/kg over the eastern half of our forecast area today, so no shortage of instability in this air mass. Best deep layer shear will again be to our west today, though models suggest there will be slightly better overlap between 30+ kt 0-6 km shear and best axis of instability than we saw yesterday, which will support better development and organization of storms. Overall, main area of thunderstorms will be tied to a pre-frontal trough and then to the cold front as the main forcing mechanism. This means today`s storms are a little more predictable than yesterday`s, and we have higher confidence in scattered storms developing over Vermont between 2 PM and 4 PM today, becoming more numerous after 4 PM. Primary convective mode will be multi-cell clusters/linear, and forecast soundings continue to suggest strong winds and large hail to be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of our forecast area outlined in a Slight risk for severe weather today. Once the front sweeps through, we`ll quickly trend drier tonight as temperatures fall into the low 40s to around 50 by Monday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...The Monday through Tuesday timeframe will feature quiet and cooler weather for the North Country. Large ridge of surface high pressure will build into the region from Canada. High temperatures on Monday will be quite a bit cooler than the past several days, max temps will peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high will crest north of our region on Monday night, leading to the coolest night that we`ve had in awhile. Lows will dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Then temperatures will return to seasonal normals for Tuesday as the high begins to slide eastward and southerly return flow redevelops. Max temps will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. No chance for precipitation over this 36 hour period, pops nil.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1029 PM EDT Saturday...Conditions will then remain dry through Wednesday evening as strong deep layer ridging keeps moisture well to our west. A surface low is expected to develop as an upper trough moves east of the Rockies and tracks towards the Great Lakes. By Wednesday night, that system`s warm front will lift northwards with rain propagating east parallel to the front as moisture ridges the crest of the upper ridge. The center of a 500 hPa high will shift northwards and intensify a bit, which may push the bulk of that precipitation north of the area, which is in line with the GFS. A weaker 500 hPa high would bring moderate, perhaps heavy, rain across our area, as the ECMWF depicts. Given it`s about 5 days out, will remain close to blended data, but probabilistic guidance hints a bit more centered over our area. A negatively tilted shortwave follows right on the heels of that system, with a surface low developing along the frontal boundary of the system ahead of it that then ejects northeastwards. This sends another wave of high theta-E air Thursday night into Friday morning, but precipitation seems scattered in nature at this time. This leaves plenty of clouds lying around Friday afternoon, but development of a modest cold front should provide a focus for convection and additional chances for moderate to heavy rain. Beyond Friday, trends in the data support a return to drier weather and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...A line of thunderstorms is currently over the northern Champlain Valley as of 130 AM. These fast moving storms are tracking east/northeast, affecting KPBG, KBTV, and KEFK over the next couple of hours. Primary threats with these storms is just some gusty winds up to 30 mph and some locally heavy rainfall that may result in a quick drop in visibility to between 1 and 3 SM. Once these storms clear the area, will remain dry through late morning, but some MVFR ceilings are expected at KSLK and KEFK through 12Z. Other sites should be predominantly VFR overnight. A cold front will move through between 18Z and 03Z, accompanied by some thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be severe, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and up to 1 inch hail possible. Some MVFR ceilings are possible along and behind the front, but will gradually lift to VFR closer to 06Z. Winds will be 10 knots or less through 12Z, but then pick up out of the south and southwest with gusts to 20 knots after 18Z. Winds will then become west/northwest behind the front, gradually diminishing in intensity to 12 knots or less towards 06Z. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Evenson/Haynes AVIATION...Duell CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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