Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 050246 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1046 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and cool conditions tonight. A period of more unsettled weather is expected this coming week with daily chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms, with the best chances for showers across the eastern portions of the region. Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected this coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface ridge across the region will continue to maintain dry conditions through tonight. A cold front across northern Ontario will drop southward and bring an increase in mid and high cloudiness late tonight into Monday. There is still a fair amount of smoke in the skies over the far western counties of New York this evening. In may catch a whiff or two of smoke early tonight before the smoke thins and/or temporarily moves to the southwest. This evenings near full moon rise was particularly red...and being perfectly timed with the just passed "Strawberry Full Moon". Monday...a broad upper level low will continue to wobble near the Gulf of Maine. Shortwave trough rotating around the western side of the low, along with some additional moisture being pulled westward around the system will bring a risk for some spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late in the day to mainly far eastern portions of the area. Getting back to the wildfire smoke...the low level trajectory favors a return to even thicker smoke on Monday. While there will be little if any cirrus over the western counties...the sky will appear milky white...much like a mid summer hazy day or a day with plenty of high level cloud cover. Have this worded the actual zone forecasts to include smoky skies. With enough mixing Monday is becoming more likely that smoke could even reduce sfc vsbys to under 6 miles (MVFR levels).
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper low will remain near the Gulf of Maine Monday night through Wednesday night. This will translate to near to below normal temperatures and chances of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly east of Lake Ontario. Surface low pressure over southern Nova Scotia Monday night will slowly retrograde into New Brunswick by Tuesday. A cold front just north of Lake Ontario Monday evening will move south across the region overnight. Initially, a few thunderstorms are possible as instability wanes into the evening. Coverage will be isolated to scattered across western NY with chances as the night goes on. Further east, a shortwave trough will move south from Quebec and chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Due to the time of day and cool conditions, any thunderstorms should be weak. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 50s. The shortwave trough will move across the region Tuesday. Any overnight activity will be done or south of the region Tuesday morning. As surface heating occurs, convection will begin by late morning across the region. Cooler temperatures aloft will be located further east with showers and a few thunderstorms forming east of Rochester by Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions expected west of the Genesee River Tuesday. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s. Showers will diminish Tuesday evening with mostly dry weather Tuesday night. The upper level low will remain over the Gulf of Maine with the long wave trough as far west as the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The region will remain under the influence of the longwave trough with the upper level low to the east. Increasing subsidence and drier air will be across the region Wednesday. Diurnally driven showers are possible, mainly east of Lake Ontario however coverage looks limited. Highs will reach the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the low to mid 70s across the lake plains. A strong shortwave trough will approach the region Wednesday night. At this time, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected but can`t rule out a few showers, again mainly east of Lake Ontario. Lows will fall to the low to mid 40s across the higher terrain to the low 50s across the lake plains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Elongated upper level low draped from the Canadian Maritimes to the Ohio Valley at the start of this period will slowly drift eastward through the end of the week. Behind this system...weak shortwave ridging should briefly build in aloft by Saturday...before giving way to another shortwave trough/cold front dropping southeast from central Canada on Sunday. Given the above...we can expect another day of cooler than normal and still somewhat-unsettled conditions on Thursday...with diurnal heating of our cooler airmass again bringing the risk for diurnally- driven showers...with the greatest potential for these along our southeastern periphery (and closest to the upper level trough axis). Meanwhile highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s...with lower 60s found across the higher terrain. Friday into Saturday will then feature a trend toward progressively drier and warmer weather as the upper low pulls away and heights/temps aloft rebound...with mainly dry conditions and highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s expected for the start of next weekend. By Sunday...shower and thunderstorm chances should return with the approach of the above mentioned shortwave trough/cold front...though temps will remain slightly above normal with highs mainly in the 75-80 range. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The exceptions to this will be the first half of tonight where vsbys could temporarily drop to MVFR levels from wildfire smoke at KIAG and KBUF. This may prove to be a more widespread issue Monday afternoon as a swath of thicker (and lower) wildfire smoke moves south across the region. Outlook... Monday Night...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... Northeasterly flow will continue to relax through tonight on both lakes. The passage of a cold front will bring northwesterly winds by Monday night with northerly component winds likely continuing through mid week. Speeds should average less than 20 knots, but choppy conditions will likely develop on both Lake Erie and especially Lake Ontario with waves approaching 3-4 feet at times. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH/TMA MARINE...TMA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.