Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 130004 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 804 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected through the end of the week, with temperatures remaining above average. Low pressure will bring the chance for rain this weekend before a cold front ushers in cooler weather next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... With nothing but scattered to broken cirrus overhead, a dry atmosphere, and strong subsidence, temperatures will tumble into the mid 50s and lower 60s overnight. Coolest readings will occur in the valleys of the Southern Tier and in typical cool spots to the east of Lake Ontario. Light winds and a strong surface based inversion forming overnight helping to trap heat/moisture from rivers in the lower elevations of the Southern Tier will result in the chance of some patchy fog in the lower and more isolated valley locations toward sunrise Thursday. Models do seem to think that thicker cirrus will keep a cap on widespread fog compared to recent nights. Elsewhere, fair conditions will continue. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains in charge through the short term, even as flow slowly returns from the south. This will bring humidity levels up progressively, however still any deeper moisture that would cause any showers will remain to our south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry conditions will last into throughout the night Friday as a bubble of high pressure over central Quebec extends southward across the the region. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will develop across the southern portions of the Ohio Valley before making its north-northeasterly track into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night through Sunday. As the low approaches the southern periphery of the forecast region Saturday night, moisture will increase across the Southern Tier and therefore favoring the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the far western Southern Tier. A well defined upper level trough will push east across the Mid-West and eventually the Northeast throughout the first half of the new work week. As the upper level trough approaches, its associated cold front will cross the central Great Lakes Sunday night before crossing the area on Monday. With its arrival and passage, expect the chances and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms to increase from west to east throughout the day on Monday. As the front departs the region and enters the Northeast, chances for showers will decrease from west to east Monday night. Behind the departing system, a large area of high pressure will engulf much of the eastern half of the CONUS Tuesday before beginning to build overhead on Wednesday. With that said, residual instability over the region on Tuesday along with any leftover moisture may be conducive to support a few showers. Otherwise, primarily dry weather for the remainder of the forecast period. In regards to temperature, temperatures will start off slightly above normal before beginning a slight cooling trend throughout the first half of the new work week. Highs Saturday will climb up into the low to mid 80s, whereas Sunday`s highs will range in the upper 70s to low 80s. Highs throughout the first half of the work week will range in the 70s, with the exception of a couple of 80 degree readings along the Lake Plains on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will continue. A bit of valley fog is possible toward sunrise near and just east of KJHW, however that should be light and break up very quickly. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday Night...Mainly VFR with local IFR in river valley fog across the Southern Tier each late night and morning. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... High pressure and very light winds will characterize the next day or two. This will result in just small waves through the near term. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fries NEAR TERM...Fries/JLA SHORT TERM...Fries LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Fries/JLA MARINE...Fries

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