


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --159 FXUS61 KBUF 192346 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 746 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Cool, dry weather will continue across western and north-central NY through Tuesday. Frost is likely across western NY, especially interior, protected locations. Unsettled weather and more unseasonably cool temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Satellite imagery shows clear skies across western NY and into parts of central NY/Oswego county this evening. A shield of low clouds persist across Jefferson, Lewis, and northern Oswego counties. It is a decent set-up for radiational cooling across much of the forecast area tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the 30s, low 40s southeast of Lake Ontario. A Frost Advisory is in effect across western NY including the Finger Lakes. Low clouds and a northerly wind will persist east of Lake Ontario tonight. While patchy frost is possible if clouds diminish, confidence is low that it will be widespread. Also, locations along the immediate shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be a few degrees warmer and negate frost development. Tuesday...after a chilly start high pressure will provide sun-filled skies for much of the area. Overall...a beautiful day is expected with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Enjoy the sunshine...the rest of the week does not look all that great, cool and showery again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The brief few days of dry weather will come to an end late Tuesday night through Wednesday. The narrow ridge axis surface and aloft stretching from northwest Ontario to the eastern Great Lakes will fade away by Wednesday. A mid level low over western Quebec will interact with another closed low moving out of the upper Midwest, with the system evolving into a deep/broad mid level closed low over southeast Canada and the Great Lakes by Thursday. A surface low on the southern flank of the mid level circulation will cross the southern Great Lakes region Wednesday, then linger over the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night through Thursday night. A wing of warm advection and strong moisture transport ahead of the low will bring thickening clouds Tuesday night, with rain spreading into the western Southern Tier late. The shield of rain will continue to advance northeast across the rest of Western NY Wednesday, reaching Central NY later in the day. The North Country may stay dry for much of Wednesday before rain develops Wednesday evening. Wednesday night through Thursday night, persistent ascent within the deepening mid level trough coupled with a persistent moisture feed off the Atlantic will continue to bring periods of rain to the entire region. Rainfall totals Wednesday through Thursday night may reach 1.0" to 1.5" south of the NYS Thruway, with 0.75" to 1.0" near the south shore of Lake Ontario, and less for the North Country. This rain will be spread out over several days, with minimal risk of flooding. Temperatures will remain well below average through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad, deep, and slow moving mid level low will move from the Great Lakes Friday to New England Saturday, then the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. Cool, moist cyclonic flow will continue to support frequent showers across the region Friday and likely into Saturday. Showers will gradually diminish in coverage by Sunday, with some early optimism for a return to mainly dry weather by Memorial Day Monday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain very cool Friday through Saturday, with some improvement Sunday through Monday as the airmass modifies and some sunshine returns. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday as high pressure resides over western and north-central NY. Outlook... Wednesday and Saturday...IFR to MVFR with showers.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Light to modest chop will be found on area lakes this evening. High pressure wedging in over the region tonight which will provide mainly light winds and wave action on Tuesday. A low pressure system moving into the eastern Great Lakes from the Ohio Valley Wednesday will then very slowly cross the lakes through Friday. This will cause northeast winds to strengthen starting Tuesday night. The greatest wave action is expected to remain mostly offshore through Wednesday night, though SCA conditions could be reached for a time along the southwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>003- 010>014-019>021-085. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/HSK SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...HSK MARINE...AR/PP