Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 160248 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1048 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and then patches of fog forming. The frontal boundary will stall across Pennsylvania early next week, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast for the Southern Tier. Weak high pressure over southern Ontario will keep areas closer to the Canadian border mainly dry early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... This late evening a cold front is dropping across the North Country, and is now starting to drop across Lake Ontario. Showers along this front, in addition to a west to east line of showers south of the lake within a convergent zone will eventually combine into a single line and drop southward tonight. While the Southern Tier is now relatively precipitation free at the moment, rain will fill back in...from both the approaching cold front and also a convective wave that is over Ohio this late evening. There are some hints in the track of this wave that may bring a period of moderate rain to the Southern Tier late tonight. A wealth of lower moisture over a saturated ground combined with a light wind will yield patches of fog through the night. A northeast wind over Lake Ontario later tonight could yield more widespread fog along and north of the thruway. A convective wave will exit into eastern New York and southern New England Sunday morning, with showers tapering off from northwest to southeast. While showers will start Sunday across WNY, the southward push of the cold front will quickly dry our region out through the morning hours. There still will be lots of low level moisture, especially with a northeast flow upsloping behind the departing wave of low pressure. Clouds will linger well into the afternoon hours, and this will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs averaging in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will remain to the south of western NY Sunday night leading to dry conditions across the forecast area. Clouds will linger across western NY as moisture lingers behind the front. A shortwave trough and area of low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley and along the cold front Monday and showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some showers and thunderstorms may move into the western Southern Tier Monday afternoon. The rest of the forecast area will be under the influence of high pressure. Clouds will likely increase across the region through the day as showers move near the NY/PA border. The region remains north of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday with a chance of showers across the western Southern Tier. It won`t be until Tuesday night when developing low pressure across the Ohio Valley tracks east-northeast towards Pennsylvania that rain chances increase across western NY. Locations adjacent to Lake Ontario especially east of Lake Ontario will see mostly dry conditions during this period. Temperatures will fall into the mid 50`s at night and reach the mid 70`s during the day Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... It doesn`t take long for soaking rainfall to return to the area yet again in the extended forecast. While a still-suppressed storm track starts the extended forecast period with the best chances of rainfall to our south, this ends rather abruptly by Thursday. Model solutions are not in absolute unison on the timing of a moisture-laden system, however the details with regard to PWATs approaching 2 inches, strong upper level forcing, good deformation, low level convergence, and even some elevated instability all seem present on the various solutions. With this in mind, PoPs were adjusted to likely and focused on the Thursday to Thursday night time frame when the preponderance of guidance suggests the most likely time for the passage of the system exists. That said, with the aforementioned concurrence in forcing mechanisms, heavy rain wording was added to the forecast. Beyond Thursday night, a bit of a dry push comes into the area, however even with lowering 850 hPa temperaturewise, an increase in insolation should keep temperatures from falling off really much at all into the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For the 00Z TAFS widespread IFR and low end MVFR ceilings are found across the region...with batches of showers moving across the Eastern Great Lakes region. As a cold front slowly settles southward across the region, expect showers to continue for the next 6 to 12 hours...ending from north to south. Abundant moisture over a saturated ground and light winds will maintain a low stratus deck...firmly within the IFR range through the night and for a few hours post sunrise tomorrow. Visibility will also deteriorate to MVFR/IFR in showers and fog, with VLIFR visibility possible in fog on the hills as stratus intersects the higher terrain. Some fog is also likely along the south shore of Lake Ontario as the warm/moist airmass crosses the still cold lake waters. As moderate daytime mixing increases, these ceiling heights will slowly improve through the day...with VFR flight conditions returning from north to south for most areas by the end of the TAF cycle. Outlook... Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely. && .MARINE... Winds have diminished, and wave heights flattened to a point where small craft advisories have been dropped for all water bodies this evening. Winds will then remain fairly light Sunday through early next week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...Fries AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas

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