Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 011510 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1010 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... It will be windy and colder today with snow showers and squalls developing ahead of a secondary cold front that will push through early tonight. This will set the stage for even colder weather Tuesday when temperatures will remain below freezing. We will experience a brief warm up on Wednesday ahead of another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... It will be windy today with temps falling through the 30s, with most areas down into the 20s before days` end. Winds will strengthen to advisory criteria south and southeast of Lake Ontario and the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region this afternoon and evening, with gusts to around 50 mph in most locations. The strongest gusts will likely occur during the early evening when the strongest winds aloft move across the area. A few gusts up to 55 mph are possible along the immediate Lake Ontario shore. While the bulk of the day will be dry, the deepening cold air will start to support lake snow showers southeast of the lakes by mid afternoon. More importantly, snow showers and squalls ahead of a secondary arctic cold front will be found across the forecast area starting after 3 PM. These could be heavy enough to have locally significant impacts to the evening commute. Expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley this evening will drift east to the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes during the course of tonight. This will aid in directing very cold air into our region with H85 temps falling to -20C to -24C. The cold sub arctic air will encourage some nuisance lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes on a northwest flow, especially during the first half of tonight, before drier air pushes in causing any lingering lake effect activity to slowly dwindle toward early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure across the Ohio Valley will ridge into our region during Tuesday. There may be some lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning but these will end quickly. Skies will clear from south to north during the day as the high builds in, but it will still be chilly with highs mainly in the mid 20s to around 30. Tuesday night, a clipper low passes to our north and a 50 kt LLJ will result in warm air advection aloft. The best lift will be closer to the low, with some light snow possibly clipping the North Country as this moves through. Elsewhere, this will only result in some cloud cover and steady or slowly rising temperatures overnight. Dry weather along with a brief warmup Wednesday as a warm front slides by to the north of the area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain to the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Temperatures begin to fall shortly after sundown as colder air begins filtering in on a northwesterly flow behind a weak cold front. Cooling 850mb temperatures will slowly raise lake effect chances southeast of the lakes through the night. Upslope flow may also trigger some light snow up on the Tug Hill overnight Wednesday as surface temperatures fall into the upper teens to mid 20s, slightly warmer south of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Temperatures trending below normal during this period with chances for snow showers. The amplification of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and downstream blocking over Iceland will force the development of a deep trough over eastern third of the CONUS. There will be several shortwaves and associated surface cold fronts/troughs bringing reinforcing shots of colder air which may extend into the following work week. With each shortwave, there will also be some snow showers that develop across the region. The best shot appears to be Friday night and Saturday, with a shortwave likely to bring the best moisture across the region. Despite the frequent chances, any snow accumulations appears to be minor at this point. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cigs of 2500-3500 ft will be throughout the region into the early afternoon with wide open vsbys. As we push through the afternoon...snow showers will blossom ahead an approaching cold front. This will reduce vsbys to between 3 and 5 SM for many of the TAF sites...with embedded snow squalls potentially producing VLIFR conditions at sites like KROC and KIAG after 20z. Another issue to contend with through the early evening will be sfc gusts in excess of 40 kts. The only area not forecast to receive the stronger winds will be across the North Country... including KART and KGTB. While there will be MVFR conditions in snow showers southeast of the lakes during the first half of tonight...mainly VFR conditions are anticipated for the overnight. Outlook... Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will become westerly and continue to increase through the morning behind the initial cold front. Thus Small Craft Advisories continue for all of the Lake Erie and Ontario nearshores. A secondary arctic cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Winds will become west-northwest to northwest behind this cold front and increase further, producing a period of gales on Lake Ontario later this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds will peak at or a little over 40 knots on the east half of the Lake. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential for ice jams on the Buffalo Creeks in Erie County through early this afternoon. The combination of higher temperatures and some light rain on Sunday has caused flows to increase on the Buffalo creeks which may break up additional ice which could cause ice jams. Overall, the risk of flooding is low but non-zero. Gauges at Ebenezer on Cazenovia Creek and Lancaster on Cayuga Creek both suggest there has been ice movement with slow rises in the flow. Ice was also noted at the Gardenville gauge earlier Sunday, with some minor ice buildup noted on Buffalo Creek and near Buffalo River. So far flows have not been high enough to cause any problems. However, with flows rising due to snow melt run-off we will keep the Flood Watch up for now. Fortunately, the relatively low flows suggests a very low risk for rapid rises associated with flash flooding. However, with ice break up, there`s certainly a risk for ice jams and these can occur at any location resulting in flooding. It`s difficult to forecast ice jam location, but ice jams typically develop in similar spots year after year. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ001>006-011>014- 021. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ008. Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ010-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042>045. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM SHORT TERM...Apffel/PP LONG TERM...AR/Apffel AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Hitchcock/JM HYDROLOGY...Apffel is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.