Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 080840 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 440 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving disturbance will gradually exit across New England today, with steady rain ending but a risk of a few showers lasting during the day. High pressure will briefly keep things dry tonight before low pressure passing by just to the south will bring another round of steady rain on Sunday. The cool weather pattern will continue well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early this morning, radar shows steady rain across the Eastern Lake Ontario region, with mainly dry conditions across the rest of Western New York. Showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually taper off during the day. The patchy clearing last night has largely filled in with clouds, but there`s still patchy fog in a few spots. A shortwave dropping across Lake Erie may produce a few rain or wet snow showers across far western portions of the Southern Tier through mid-morning. This shortwave will pass across the area today and will get some help from diurnal heating with the risk of some showers. Mesoscale guidance suggests the best chance for showers is this afternoon across the Western Southern Tier, and along a convergence boundary across the Niagara Frontier. Would not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but the expectation is that most of the day will be dry. Otherwise cool weather will continue, with highs today ranging in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak surface ridge will move across the area tonight, with skies clearing out across at least Western New York and eventually east of Lake Ontario. Limited pressure gradient will remain Rochester east, but winds should drop off across much of Western New York supporting radiational cooling. Issued a Frost Advisory for much of Western New York. There will also be areas of frost in Cattaraugus and Allegheny counties, but the frost/freeze program is not active here yet so no headlines were issued. Expect lows in the lower to mid 30s across much of Western New York, with mid to upper 30s east of Rochester where clouds and winds will persist a bit longer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface Sunday morning will begin Mother`s Day quiet, with patches of frost around. A surface low over the mid-Mississippi Valley will ride eastward along a warm front that will extend across Central Pennsylvania. While this front will remain south of our region, moisture will advect northward with isentropic lift rain reaching the Southern Tier by the late morning hours of Sunday. Within a zonal flow aloft, the northern edge of this precipitation will be slow to push northward...not reaching areas such as Buffalo and Rochester until the evening hours. As a surface low and compact upper level shortwave track towards the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon and evening, cold air aloft associated with this shortwave will bring chances for snow on the higher hill tops of the Southern Tier. Point soundings display a deep isothermal layer, and while 850 hPa temperatures are marginal for snow heavier precipitation/lift as the shortwave nears could allow for a brief change over to snow...with minor accumulations on the hill tops. Later Sunday Night as this surface low and shortwave track to the south and east of our region rain showers will taper off from west to east. Monday and Monday night will be mainly rainfree. The departing surface low to our east now over New England may bring some wrap around rain showers to the North Country. Otherwise most of the moisture associated with the next upper level low to our northwest will reside near a backdoor cold front that will remain north of our region Monday Night. Depending upon cloud cover Monday Night, areas of frost will be possible. Sunday and Monday will remain well below normal through the daytime, with highs only in the 50s. It is not out of the question that temperatures remain in the 40s across the Southern Tier Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold upper level trough will drop across our region Tuesday. Will increase PoPs to at least chance Tuesday as steepening mid level lapse rates and the approach of a cold front from the north will likely trigger scattered showers for our region. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible Tuesday as the upper level low passes overhead. Behind this upper level low Wednesday and Thursday will trend drier as surface high pressure nears our region. The operational GFS looks too fast with the advancement of the next upper level disturbance next week...and will opt for the drier solutions of the ECMWF and Canadian. With sunshine, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s...very close to normal. Another trough of low pressure will near the eastern Great Lakes region late next week...bringing chances for rain showers back into our region by Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Steady rain east of Lake Ontario will gradually taper off today, with MVFR/IFR flight conditions at KART due to rain and low cigs. MVFR clouds have filled in across the rest of Western New York, and this has mostly prevented low clouds and fog from developing with a few exceptions. Now expecting mainly MVFR flight conditions this morning, then a slow improvement to mainly VFR by late afternoon as clouds lift and eventually scatter out. High pressure will build across the area tonight, with VFR flight conditions. Outlook... Sunday and Sunday night...Rain developing from south to north with associated restrictions developing. Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for rain showers. Monday Night and Tuesday...VFR. Mainly dry, a few showers on Tuesday. Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Southwest winds will pickup this afternoon with speeds and associated wave heights potentially briefly reaching small craft criteria this afternoon and evening on Lake Erie. Lighter winds and limited wave action is then expected Sunday into at least the first half of next week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ001-002-010>013-019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel NEAR TERM...Apffel SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...Apffel/HSK MARINE...Apffel/HSK/TMA

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