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907
FXUS61 KBUF 091756
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Marginal Risk for Severe Weather expanded eastward into the Finger
Lakes.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1) Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few storms that
may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

2) Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with frost
potential Sunday and Monday night.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with periods
of rain Wednesday through Thursday.
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.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few
storms that may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

A surface low centered over the UP, will continue to progress
northeast into Ontario this afternoon, dragging its attendant cold
front across Michigan and eventually into New York State tonight.
Ahead of the cold front, there is a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms currently crossing Michigan State, where this line of
activity will spread across New York State this afternoon.

While it has taken most of the morning to begin to clear out across
western New York, from the initial passing shortwave trough and low
clouds cover, the few hours of clear skies during peak diurnal
heating will allow for mid-level lapse rates to steepen enough to
support a fair amount of instability (SBCAPE values of around 500
J/kg). This combined with around 30 knots of bulk shear should
support any strong storms to become severe, and produce gusty winds
and some hail. As this line of storms enters the Finger Lakes region
and encounters a less favorable environment, due to the limited time
of sunshine today from the abundance of cloud cover the line of
storms will quickly weaken. This all being said, SPC has expanded
the Marginal Risk for Severe Weather eastward into the Finger Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through
Tuesday with frost potential Monday night.

A longwave troughing pattern will remain overhead across the Great
Lakes and into New England Sunday through Tuesday supporting a cool
airmass to linger across the region, resulting in daily high
temperatures to average around 10 degrees below average through the
start of the week. Clear skies and light winds each night (Sunday
and Monday) will support radiational cooling and result in
temperatures to plummet into the 30s supporting the threat for frost
and freeze conditions. Frost will likely form away from the
lakeshores, with freeze conditions possible in the colder Southern
Tier valleys and across Lewis County. Please note the remainder of
the forecast area enters their growing seasons on May 11th.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week
with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive and rotate through the longwave
trough by Wednesday, likely evolving into a mid-level closed low
settling in across the Great Lakes by the middle of the week. This
being said, chances for rain will increase from west to east late
Tuesday night through Wednesday as this system nears. Chances for
precipitation will continue into the end of the week as the trough
and closed low slowly departs east.
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Quiet conditions begin the 18Z TAF period, but a cold front with
storms upon it will be bearing down on our region.

Instability is marginal, though will include thunder within a PROB30
for a 3 to 4 hour period for the western 4 TAF sites as several
broken line segments of convection are expected to reach far WNY
around 23Z, and propagate eastward. Flight conditions are expected
to lower to IFR/MVFR in heavier convection. A later arrival and
limited instability, will likely taper off any thunder by time the
line of convection reaches KART.

Any thunderstorm may bring locally higher wind gusts to the
airfields this evening.

Behind the line of storms, and with a shortwave passage, light
showers, generally with VFR visibilities, but MVFR ceiling heights
will pass across our region through the mid-overnight hours. All
together these showers will exit east of KART by 12Z.

Behind the cold front winds will veer to west to northwest late
tonight...though within a light surface pressure gradient field lake
breeze circulations will develop late in the period with SW winds
northeast of the Lakes.

By the final hours of the TAF cycle a fairly substantial amount of
cumulus clouds are expected to be bubbling up...with skies SCT -
BKN...but VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.
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.MARINE...
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South to southwest flow will continue to strengthen this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in choppy conditions
on the lakes this evening. Additionally, with the passing of the
cold front, expect a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms to
start to cross the lakes at 21Z into the evening hours. The cold
front will work from west to east tonight supporting continued
choppy conditions through Sunday, with potential for low end small
craft advisory levels on the east end of Lake Ontario Sunday
afternoon.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ