Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 190817
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
217 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...

We expect to see temperatures push into the upper 80s to lower 90s
today thanks to a prefrontal environment. A strong southeast flow
will develop over our far east in response to the approaching
weather system, and could lead to a stray thunderstorm over
Carter/Fallon County today, but otherwise conditions will remain
dry. Then the upper trough over British Columbia will drop
through Montana late today through Sunday. This will push a cold
front through the region this evening. Northwest winds with some
30-40 mph gusts are expected along and behind the front this
evening, especially over our central and eastern zones where our
Red Flag Warning is in place.

A 100kt upper jet associated with the system will slide into the
region setting up over the foothills late tonight in the cyclonic
flow aloft. Low level moisture increases aided by the
frontogenesis powered by the strong upper dynamics. Models
continue to suggest a good chance of widespread precipitation for
our CWA Sunday. There is enough instability to support some
thunder, but we feel this will be primarily showers and pockets of
rain and not a big thunderstorm event. The western foothills and
north slopes of the Big Horns have the best potential for
precipitation.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler Sunday, with max highs
struggling to get out of the upper 60s and lower 70s. Showers will
taper off quickly Sunday evening as moisture and lift quickly
slide south, with just some lingering precipitation left over the
Big Horns. BT


Monday through Friday...

Temperatures will warm each day to the middle of the week as
ridging builds into the Rockies. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms return Wednesday as a shortwave will pass over the
area, breaking down the ridge. It`s too early to see if there is
any chance of severe weather as CAPE begins to increase. Winds
will also increase along and behind the front on Wednesday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday
afternoon.

High temperatures Monday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s,
increasing Tuesday to the upper 80s to low 90s. Temps will warm
into the 90s on Wednesday. Temps Thursday will cool slightly into
the upper 80s to low 90s, returning to all 80s on Friday.

Carrothers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail. Wildfire smoke could reduce slant
range visibility at times. A cold front will pass over the area
this afternoon bringing gusty north winds. Carrothers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 056/069 050/080 054/090 060/093 060/089 058/085
    0/B 47/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    23/T    33/T
LVM 087 052/066 043/082 049/090 054/089 052/085 052/084
    0/B 38/T    10/U    00/U    23/T    34/T    33/T
HDN 092 055/071 048/081 051/091 058/096 058/091 056/087
    0/U 47/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    32/T
MLS 091 056/074 048/078 052/088 060/096 062/090 059/086
    0/B 34/W    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/W
4BQ 091 058/071 049/077 052/087 060/096 063/089 061/085
    1/U 35/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 088 052/071 043/075 048/085 056/094 060/088 057/084
    2/T 33/W    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 088 052/067 043/077 049/087 054/093 055/087 054/084
    0/U 37/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    23/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 125>132.
WY...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONE 274.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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