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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200308 AAA
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Billings MT
808 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Upper ridge building into western Montana. Some high level clouds
were rolling over the top of the ridge. Surface pressure gradient
was increasing along the western foothills, and this was allowing
winds to approach 50 mph at Livingston. Wind have increased ahead
of forecast timing and higher than existing forecast, so will
need to bump winds up. Not anticipating Wind Advisory criteria to
be hit, but will be around 50 mph most of the night. Temperatures
have dropped off quickly over the east. Low level warm advection
expected to kick in shortly, so not expecting much more in the
way of falling temperatures the rest of the night. TWH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...

Quiet period of weather for the next couple of days. High
pressure ridging will take hold over the northern Rockies through
Tuesday. Although a few high clouds may move over the forecast
area, sunny skies will prevail. Currently, the arctic boundary is
between Hysham and Miles City with temperatures east of this
boundary in the teens with areas west of boundary in the 20s and
30s with lower 40s along the foothills. The arctic airmass will
continue to slowly erode eastward and is expected to be out of the
forecast area by Monday afternoon.

There will be somewhat of a pressure gradient tonight along the
Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. This will result in some gusty winds
25 to 35 mph with possibly a gust in the 40-50 mph range but we
are not expecting any advisory impactful winds. Overnight lows
tonight will be milder with teens and 20s except for some single
digits across the far eastern areas. Afternoon highs Monday will
be warmer with lower to middle 40s except 30s east of Rosebud
County. Tuesday will see highs in the lower 40s along the Dakota
borders to upper 40s along the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills.
Hooley



Wednesday through Sunday...

Models continue to prog a disturbance crossing the area on
Wednesday, in the form of a splitting Pacific trough. Some
guidance shows a more organized wave, while others show weak
forcing. Regardless, it looks to bring light snow chances to the
area, greatest over southern areas. Several inches of snow look
possible for the southern mountains, with perhaps some light snow
accumulations for the foothills areas with a mix of rain and snow
during the day Wednesday. Precipitation ends Wednesday night as
the system exits off to the east. High pressure then looks to
return for Thursday and Friday with winds on the increase along
the western foothills as surface pressure gradients increase. A
weak clipper then looks to move across northern Montana Friday
night/Saturday. Winds will be breezy at times along the western
gap areas with increased pressure gradients. At this time,
strongest winds look to occur for Friday and Saturday, but are
expected to remain below advisory level. Temperatures are forecast
to be above normal with highs ranging from the 30s to 40s most
days, coolest over the east. Low temperatures are forecast to
range from the teens to 20s most nights/mornings. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period with passing high clouds.
Gusty WSW surface winds will occur at KLVM with gusts of 35 to 45
kt. STP
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/042 030/047 031/044 028/044 030/048 032/050 032/049
    00/B    00/B    03/S    11/B    11/B    11/B    10/B
LVM 025/047 031/048 032/041 027/045 029/047 031/048 032/048
    00/N    00/B    32/S    01/B    01/N    11/N    10/N
HDN 015/042 024/047 028/044 025/043 025/048 028/050 028/049
    00/U    00/B    04/O    11/B    11/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 005/037 021/042 025/040 021/038 023/043 027/045 027/044
    00/U    00/B    03/O    00/B    00/B    10/B    00/B
4BQ 011/040 022/046 025/041 023/040 023/045 026/047 027/046
    00/U    00/E    02/O    10/B    00/B    01/B    00/B
BHK 001/035 020/041 023/037 020/036 020/041 025/043 025/043
    00/U    00/E    02/S    10/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 015/045 024/047 024/041 021/040 022/047 025/048 025/048
    00/U    00/E    04/O    11/B    10/B    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings