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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170756
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
156 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday Night...

Clear skies and upper ridging will start off the week, with
downslope warming allow highs to again reach into the low 70s, and
less snow cover over far SE MT will allow them to finally climb
back into the 60s.

Still high confidence in a cutoff upper low swinging across
southern Wyoming and bringing some dynamics and moisture to the
area. High confidence exists in the mountains and foothills
receiving some precipitation, beginning with the
Beartooth/Absaroka`s Monday night. Mostly a rain/snow mix in the
foothills, and all snow in the mountains, and generally seeing a
quarter to half inch of liquid, with locally higher amounts
possible on northeast-facing slopes. Some foothill locations, such
as Red Lodge, may see a small window early Tuesday morning where
temperatures become cool enough to fully switch from a mix to
snow, hence be wary of possible morning commute impacts. As the
system moves easy, the precipitation will move into the Bighorn
mountains as snow, and into far SE MT as rain. Both mountain
ranges contain a very high chance to see over 2 inches of snow,
even in lower valleys, but only a medium chance to see over 4
inches of snow.

The other item to note with this system is as it moves east on
Tuesday and high pressure follows in its wake, pressure gradient
in the far SE will tighten and bring some winds gusting to 35 mph
in the afternoon and evening. This system`s associated cold front
won`t arrive until late Monday, so while Monday will still see
temperatures climb into the 60s, Tuesday will be relatively
chilly as highs will only climb into the 40s.
Vertz

Wednesday through Sunday...

Little to take note of for the second half of the week, as it`s
defined by upper ridging dominating the weather pattern. A couple
weak, dry shortwaves will cut across to assist in moderating
temperatures, so while we won`t see highs in the 70s again, they
will still climb back into the 60s. Next shot at seeing some
precipitation will be Sunday.
Vertz

&&

.AVIATION...

Slightly breezy winds expected to persist at KLVM and K6S0
throughout Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the
next 24 hours.
Vertz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 043/068 040/047 029/053 038/063 040/063 041/060
    0/U 00/B    43/R    10/U    00/B    00/B    11/B
LVM 066 038/063 034/049 026/057 034/060 035/062 037/060
    0/N 02/R    52/R    00/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
HDN 071 037/070 037/047 027/055 031/064 033/065 036/062
    0/U 00/U    44/R    10/U    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 069 037/068 039/046 028/048 030/059 032/061 037/057
    0/U 00/U    13/R    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 064 036/067 038/045 029/047 029/059 034/060 034/058
    0/U 00/U    26/R    31/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 067 036/067 037/045 026/044 026/055 031/058 033/053
    0/U 00/U    13/R    31/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 067 035/068 034/045 025/053 029/061 032/063 034/061
    0/U 00/U    67/R    30/U    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 6 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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