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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301536
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
936 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.UPDATE...

Possible mixing potential exists further out into the plains, and
gusts up to 30 mph is possible from the foothills through
Billings. COnditions still look dry, especially in far SE Montana
where RH`s will get down to the low 20s. Otherwise, no other
major changes to today`s forecast.
Vertz

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday night...

One more dry and warm spring day before colder and unsettled
conditions take hold for the rest of the week ahead. A deepening
area of low pressure off the Pacific NW coast will back the flow
aloft to the southwest today. Good mixing will allow these
southwest winds to work down the east slopes of the Rockies
providing gusty foothills winds and breezy conditions into central
areas. These winds will also combine with plenty of sun to boost
temperatures into the mid 60s. Winds in the western foothills
(Livingston and Nye) will gust to 50+ mph this afternoon through
late tonight ahead of a cold front. At this point will hold off on
an advisory with guidance falling right around 50 percent. The
front will move through in the early morning hours which will
diminish the winds in the foothills.

The front is supported by a strong jet stream aloft which is
pulling moisture in from the Pacific. This moisture will work its
way down to the surface behind the front with a good chance for
rain/snow showers by sunrise Tuesday. Cooled temperatures a few
degrees below guidance for Tuesday with a good chance for
precipitation through the day. Should still warm up enough to
transition to all rain for elevations below 4000 feet Tuesday
afternoon, while a wet accumulation of snow on grassy surfaces can
be expected above this elevation. Light snow will continue
through Tuesday night with light accumulations of an inch or two
for areas west of Rosebud county.

Total snow accumulations for the western mountains Tuesday
morning through Tuesday night looks to range from 4 to 8 inches,
with 1 to 2 inches in the lower elevations west of Rosebud county.
Chambers


Wednesday through Sunday night...

Ensembles have finally come into agreement on a cooler airmass
staying in the area through Friday before the spread becomes
larger again. Ensembles are continuing agree on a chance of
snowfall for much of southeastern Montana and Sheridan County.

High temps on Wednesday and Thursday will remain well below
normal with many locations struggling to get out of the 20s.
After the initial front on Tuesday, additional energy is set to
move through Wednesday afternoon which will combine with moisture
that will bring another shot of snow Wednesday night into Tuesday
morning. Ensembles are in agreement on 3 to 5 inches along a line
from Big Timber to Billings to Broadus and down to Sheridan.
Heaviest amounts will likely extend from Sheridan and Lodge Grass
over towards Ekalaka where some of the higher spots could see 6 to
8 inches. Road temps should be cool enough that snow
accumulations on the road will occur. As we are still a few days
out, these numbers could change so make sure to stay tuned to the
forecast as we move into Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Friday and beyond as
some ensembles want to keep the cold air over southeastern Montana
but have trended the current forecast warmer. Have trended the
current forecast on the warmer side.

High temps will remain in the 20s and 30s Wednesday and Thursday,
warming into the 40s for the end of the week. The coldest temps
will be Wednesday and Thursday night with temps dropping into the
low teens and single digits. Low temps will warm into the 20s for
Friday night and beyond.

Carrothers
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail at area airports. Southwest winds at KLVM and
K6SO will gust up to 45 kts this afternoon and through the
evening. The Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains will be obscured in
clouds and isolated snow showers. Carrothers/Vertz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 037/045 027/033 017/029 014/042 025/045 026/051
    0/U 36/O    66/S    65/S    11/B    12/S    22/O
LVM 054 034/042 024/034 015/031 015/042 025/043 026/049
    2/R 67/O    88/S    75/S    12/S    24/S    32/O
HDN 064 036/048 027/035 017/030 011/043 022/046 026/052
    0/U 36/O    76/S    65/S    11/B    12/O    22/S
MLS 064 036/052 026/037 017/028 011/040 022/044 024/049
    0/U 14/O    54/S    45/S    11/B    01/E    11/B
4BQ 062 034/056 026/039 016/028 008/039 021/044 024/049
    0/U 05/R    54/S    56/S    11/U    01/E    11/B
BHK 063 035/055 024/037 015/027 010/038 019/043 021/046
    0/U 03/R    43/S    45/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 059 033/053 026/036 017/027 009/040 021/043 024/049
    1/U 26/O    67/S    76/S    11/B    12/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings