Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
449 FXUS65 KBYZ 180252 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 852 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quieter weather pattern into Thursday. - Warm with a chance for strong thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. - Much cooler and unsettled Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... While a few isolated showers continue over/near the higher terrain this evening, dry conditions under mostly clear skies now exist for many locations. Look for temperatures to fall into the 50s to upper 40s tonight across the area. In portions of south- eastern Carter County around Alzada, Montana, patchy fog is possible tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail into Wednesday as ridging builds over the region. Arends && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday night... Weak shortwave energy sliding west to east through the region was bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist into the early evening hours before decreasing. Marginal CAPE, but low shear (20-25 kts) exists over the area. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with gusty winds and small hail, but widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected. Drier and warmer conditions move in for Wednesday as ridging builds over the region. Look for high temperatures on Wednesday in the 80s for most locations. STP Thursday through Tuesday... There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the dominant pattern over the long term. Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging will be over the region leading to above average temperatures in the 80s F for most locations. Thursday will see locations east of Billings have a 30-50% chance of getting a high temperature over 90 F with lower chances to Friday. Saturday looks to be a transition day as the upper level low slowly drifts to the east over the Northwest CONUS. Temperatures across the western portions of the forecast area will be in the 70s F with 80s F elsewhere. A cold front will move across the region Saturday decreasing temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Most locations will see high temperatures in the 60s F. Temperatures will begin to rise Tuesday as the upper trough moves to the east. The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will put Southeast Montana in southwest flow bringing persistent precipitation chances. PWAT anomalies will also be 100-150% of normal, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Torgerson && .AVIATION... 02z update...Afternoon convection is quickly diminishing across the forecast area this evening. Expect VFR conditions with light winds to prevail through Wednesday morning. Expect isolated afternoon convection near the mountains Wednesday afternoon, but capping inversion should limit activity over the lower elevations. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/087 057/089 060/085 058/082 051/065 045/069 049/077 10/U 00/U 32/T 21/U 43/T 32/T 22/T LVM 048/086 051/086 054/084 050/076 042/062 037/067 041/074 20/U 01/U 43/T 33/T 55/T 33/T 23/T HDN 051/087 056/091 058/088 058/084 052/068 044/070 048/078 10/U 00/U 32/W 21/U 43/T 32/T 32/T MLS 055/088 057/093 063/088 062/087 054/071 047/068 049/076 10/U 10/U 52/W 21/U 43/W 32/W 33/T 4BQ 053/085 059/093 061/088 062/089 054/072 048/067 049/074 20/U 00/U 21/U 10/U 21/B 32/T 33/T BHK 052/086 054/092 059/086 058/085 054/072 046/067 047/073 00/U 00/U 32/T 21/U 32/W 32/W 23/T SHR 048/084 053/091 055/087 055/086 049/069 043/068 044/076 20/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 23/T 43/T 33/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings