Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
530 FXUS65 KBYZ 130845 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry into Monday. - Much cooler with a good chance of precipitation Monday night through Wednesday. - Conditions become dry with highs near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday Night... Ridging over the region will flatten a bit today, with warm and dry conditions prevailing. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to 90s. Winds will be a bit lighter than yesterday. Some weak energy moving through the westerly flow will bring a few showers or thunderstorms (15% chance) to the southwest mountains and adjacent foothills late this afternoon and evening. Monday starts off warm and dry with pre-frontal conditions in place. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and 90s, ahead of a cold front passage late in the day/Monday evening. Uncertainty remains in the frontal timing, as convection near the MT/Canada border early Monday morning could induce north/northeast winds to move in earlier than currently forecast. Ahead of the front, a weak wave moving through the westerly flow and instability over the region will bring isolated to scattered (15 to 30% chance) showers and thunderstorms to the southern mountains and foothills during the afternoon/evening. Cooler conditions, breezy north to northeast winds and increasing chances for precipitation will move into the area behind the front, continuing into Tuesday. STP Tuesday through Sunday... Tuesday, a 500 mb Pacific wave will be moving into the region bringing a pattern change to cooler and wetter conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. This wave will create elongated surface low pressure from Wyoming through South Dakota. Northerly winds associated with this low are expected to advect in moisture from the north. The ECMWF Ensemble is indicating PWAT values of 1-1.25 which are 150% of normal or greater for this time of year. Temperatures will also drop significantly behind a cold frontal passage Monday night. The ECMWF EFI tables are showing areas of -0.9 to -0.95 anomalies indicating well below normal temperatures. Currently, the NBM is indicating most locations will be in the 60s F Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool temperatures and high PWATS will create moist lower levels more reminiscent of a spring system. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, however, little to no instability should act to limit convective potential. Due to this, severe storms are not expected with this system at this time. Precipitation amounts are highly uncertain at this time. WPC clusters making up about 40% of models indicate lower precipitation amounts ranging from 0.1-0.5 inches across the region. The other 60% of models show widespread precipitation values greater than 0.75 inches for locations east of the continental divide. Currently the NBM is giving our region a 50% chance for getting greater than 0.5 inches of precipitation. The upper level pattern gets messier late in the week as ensembles are unclear as to what will replace the Pacific trough. There seems to be good agreement however that the pattern will bring downsloping conditions warming temperatures back to seasonal values. Dry conditions are also expected Thursday through the weekend. Torgerson && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 064/096 059/065 053/067 053/081 059/085 060/090 0/U 12/T 56/T 64/T 21/U 11/B 10/U LVM 093 057/094 052/065 045/069 046/084 050/087 051/091 0/U 12/T 57/T 63/T 11/U 12/T 11/U HDN 095 062/096 057/068 053/067 049/083 056/086 057/090 0/U 02/T 55/T 74/T 21/U 11/B 10/U MLS 096 064/096 060/069 053/067 052/079 057/086 059/089 0/U 10/U 55/T 64/T 21/U 11/U 10/U 4BQ 093 067/096 061/070 054/067 053/078 059/084 060/087 0/U 02/T 44/T 74/T 21/U 11/U 21/U BHK 091 062/095 055/067 050/064 047/076 053/083 056/084 0/U 01/U 44/T 64/T 21/B 11/U 21/U SHR 092 059/093 055/068 050/070 047/082 052/085 055/088 0/U 12/T 46/T 75/T 21/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings