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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200857
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
257 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...valid for Today and Tonight...

Powerful and quick moving storm system was in the process of
cutting off over northern Wyoming. Snow has been falling in the
mountains and the Beartooth/Absaroka foothills overnight.
Mountains have picked up 3 to 6 inches of new snow, with another 2
to 4 inches expected by the time it tapers off late this morning.
The foothills look to have close to an inch, with another inch
possible this morning. Models were consistently tapering off the
snowfall over these areas as the morning wears on. Snow forecast
total looks on track there with a couple of inches likely at Red
Lodge by the time it is done. The central plains were still fairly
warm and even though the radar was filling in, am not expecting
much in the way of accumulating snowfall, generally less than an
inch, with rain mixed in.

Attention turns to the strengthening surface low over northeast
Wyoming this morning. This will increase winds from Sheridan to
Ekalaka, while precipitation develops (probably all in the form of
wet snow). Main event will get going toward sunrise with wind
gusts of 40-50 mph in these locations. Snow will be wet, but
visibility will be reduced with the snow and wind. Expecting an
inch or two of wet snowfall, but snow may mix with rain by
afternoon. Warm ground and the sun angle may limit accumulations
during the day time. Will keep messaging on this with a HWO and
Weather Story and monitor conditions as they develop early this
morning. Will let Advisory run for the Bighorn mountains as snow
continues to fall there. Precipitation will end from west to east
as the day goes. A weak system enters the picture over the western
zones tonight, but most of the activity will be in the higher
terrain. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Weak waves of energy moving through northwest flow will keep
chances for showers over portions of the area Monday and Tuesday,
highest over the southwest mountains. A few inches of snow
accumulation is possible over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains.
Tuesday continues to look windy along the western foothills where
westerly wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible. By
Wednesday, a stronger system drops south into the region in the
form of a cold front, spreading colder temperatures and chances
for rain and snow. Additional snow accumulations look possible
over the mountains and adjacent foothills. Drier conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures look to return to the area on
Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the Northern
Rockies. Strong winds look possible along the western foothills on
Friday with high pressure west of the area and lee side troughing
over central Montana. Guidance continues to prog a more
significant disturbance for the area over the coming weekend as a
strong push of Canadian air drops south along with precipitation
overspreading the area. Temperatures look cold enough for snow
accumulations over the lower elevations as well as the mountains.
Still aways out, but something to watch through the week.

High temperatures look to range from the 40s to 50s Monday through
Thursday with the coldest day being Wednesday. Friday is forecast
to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 50s to lower
60s. Colder temperatures return to the area over the weekend,
dropping into the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures in the 20s to
lower 30s can be expected most nights/mornings. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

Mixed precipitation/wet snow will continue across southern
Montana and northern Wyoming this morning. Mountains will be
obscured in snowfall, and there will be areas of MVFR flight
conditions across lower elevations. Sub-MVFR conditions can be
expected along the foothills, including from Red Lodge to
Sheridan, with wet snow expected to continue in Red Lodge and
develop in Sheridan. Also, gusty northwest winds will develop
early this morning with gusts up to 40 kts at Sheridan. Wet snow,
wind and sub-MVFR conditions, are also expected over southeast
Montana this morning. Conditions will gradually improve from west
to east as the day wears on. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 033/052 038/060 038/048 029/051 035/062 036/047
    7/R 31/B    24/R    75/O    31/B    00/U    25/O
LVM 046 032/048 038/056 035/045 026/049 033/058 034/045
    5/O 53/O    25/R    65/O    20/B    01/N    35/O
HDN 050 031/051 035/059 036/047 028/050 032/062 034/049
    7/R 21/B    25/R    65/R    41/B    00/U    25/O
MLS 052 030/051 034/057 036/044 028/048 033/061 035/047
    4/R 11/U    15/R    65/O    31/B    01/U    33/O
4BQ 048 027/047 031/054 033/044 026/045 030/059 032/049
    8/O 21/B    14/R    76/O    52/S    00/U    24/O
BHK 048 027/049 029/051 032/042 026/043 029/057 033/046
    6/R 21/U    03/R    55/O    31/B    00/U    22/O
SHR 044 025/047 030/056 033/044 024/046 027/060 031/048
    8/O 32/S    13/O    66/O    52/S    10/U    25/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
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