Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 040928
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
228 AM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday night...

Current 500 mb analysis shows slight ridging building into the
region which will make for a dry day for most across the region.
Ensembles show PVA feeding into the low to our northeast, setting
up over southern MT/northern WY for Monday afternoon/evening.
This energy embedded in westerly flow will favor a pattern for
snowfall for the western slopes of the Beartooth/Absarokas.
Western slopes have about a 75% chance of 3+ inches with Cooke
City at about 50%. Chances for 6 inches or more are at or near 0.
PoPs remain low (less than 30%) for lower elevations given the
westerly flow and consequential downsloping. Any precipitation
that falls will likely be an isolated light snow shower Monday
afternoon/evening.

Into Tuesday, cyclonic flow over central and western Canada will
drop down into MT to produce a weak shortwave. Breezy W/SW winds
will precede the front Tuesday night. A weak front in expected to
move through late Tuesday morning into the evening from west to
east. Precip chances will be slightly higher for lower elevations
this round, but the overall pattern will still favor the mountains
with expected snowfall amounts of 6-12 inches. Areas in and
around Cooke City have about a 60-90% chance of at least 6 inches
at this time. Timing for best chances (30-50%) of precip look to
be Tues. afternoon into the evening for western and central zones.
Chances for the east are less than 20%.

High temperatures will be in the 30s/low 40s Monday and 30s/40s
Tuesday with lows in the teens to low 20s both nights. TS


Wednesday through Sunday...

Unsettled conditions continue on Wednesday with area unde the
influence of an upper trof, and with the jet stream pushing
Pacific moisture into the southwest mountains. With stronger
westerly flow aloft and moisture fetch just a bit further south
compared to the past few runs, models have trended temperatures a
bit warmer, mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wednesday
afternoon. Persistent snow should taper off over the southern
mountains/foothills by Wednesday evening, though a 20 to 40
percent chance will linger into Thursday as the Pacific moisture
fetch slowly shifts southward and wraps into developing 4-corners
storm system.

Ridging builds in for Friday and hangs around for the weekend for
warmer and drier conditions along with a good deal more sun
compared to the past week to 10 days. Under the ridging expect gap
winds to increase on Saturday into Sunday over the western
foothills. How strong they get is still to be determined but
increased wind gusts to get a foot in the door with this forecast
package.

Another Pacific system begins to impact the area Sunday night into
Monday with what looks like another extended unsettled period
through next week. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


Moisture over the southern mountains will bring occasional
mountain obscuration through tonight. Isolated showers are
possible from the Bighorn mountains into SE Montana, and in and
near other area mountains and foothills this afternoon. Expect
local MVFR conditions near precipitation areas. Otherwise VFR
conditions are anticipated today into this evening. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036 021/041 023/041 021/042 022/048 027/057 031/055
    1/B 22/S    32/S    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/B
LVM 035 016/033 016/037 015/037 014/041 021/051 027/047
    2/S 45/S    42/S    11/B    00/U    00/N    11/B
HDN 039 019/044 021/043 020/045 020/048 021/059 025/057
    1/B 32/S    22/S    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
MLS 031 017/041 020/038 019/041 018/043 021/054 026/055
    1/B 11/B    11/B    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
4BQ 038 020/045 023/043 021/043 020/045 023/057 028/057
    1/B 11/B    10/B    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 031 014/039 018/038 016/040 016/041 019/051 025/053
    1/B 11/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 039 017/044 020/040 018/040 018/044 019/058 025/055
    2/S 21/B    21/B    11/B    11/B    00/U    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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