838
FXUS61 KCAR 201334
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
934 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region today. Low pressure
will move off the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, track south of
the area Saturday, then lift north into the Maritimes on Sunday.
Brief ridging on Monday, then the next low pressure moves in
Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933am Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Prev discussion blo...
Sfc ridge axis remains along the Downeast coast with deepening
low sitting over Lake Michigan. Low stratus and fog is moving
from south to north over eastern areas early this morning.
Locally dense fog possible this morning along the coast with
patchy drizzle developing around daybreak. Fortunately temps
have been warm enough over the past day or two such that road
temperatures have risen into the mid-30s across the north.

Southerly winds will increase across the north and west as low-
level jet increases ahead of cold front this afternoon and
evening. The warmest temps today will be over the North Woods in
the mid-upper 50s with southern areas only climbing into the
middle 40s under cloudy skies.

Later tonight will see rain chances increasing after midnight,
though H5 trof will become negatively tilted after 09z. This may
keep the bulk of the steady rain out of most of the area until
closer to 12z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure system to our south slides up along the Gulf of
Maine on Friday, and gradually slides into Nova Scotia by Friday
evening. Cold front moves west to east through Maine, advecting
in some cooler temperatures during the daytime. Low level
moisture and light winds could cause some patchy fog to develop
in the morning. Currently forecasting highs to be in the low
40s throughout the area. Precipitation continues Friday, with
Maine seeing rain during the daytime hours. Looking at the
heaviest precipitation to fall along the Downeast coast, around
half an inch of liquid. As temperatures begin to drop by Friday
evening, could be a transition from rain to a rain/snow mix, or
even snow, in areas north of Mt. Katahdin. Models seem to be
trending downwards with snow total amounts in the north, so
currently forecast everywhere to get an inch or less. Could
change as models continue to evolve, so could update to a 1-2
inch snowfall total. Winds shift behind the front, and get some
elevated gusts.

Low goes out into Nova Scotia and ridging
builds in on Friday night into Saturday. Lows could be
seasonably cold as skies gradually begin to clear out over
midnight, so currently forecast to be in the 20s/30s.
Precipitation gradually moves out of the area by Saturday
morning. Skies begin to become partially sunny with highs in the
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Frontal passage on Sunday brings some chance for light snow
showers in the north. Afterwords, high pressure of the west
pushes eastward throughout the rest of the day. On Monday,
vertically stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes
begins to move into the Quebec area, moving through the Maine
region Tuesday into Wednesday. With this, snow showers forecast
throughout the area on Monday, and then slowly transition to
rain by Tuesday. As temperatures drop on Tuesday night,
precipitation could change back over to snow again. Looking at
some colder temperatures for highs early next week in the 30s,
but gradually becomes highs in the 40s by Wednesday. Lows could
go to the single digits in the north early next week, and then
become in the 20s during the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions dominating the area today. Terminals
from KHUL and south will be LIFR next 24 hours with patchy fog
and drizzle expected.

Northern Aroostook terminals will remain IFR this morning with
KFVE briefly improving MVFR in the afternoon. LLWS expected at
FVE, CAR and PQI this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM:
Friday..IFR conditions due to low ceilings and rain. Patchy fog
could reduce visibility at times. E to SE winds early, becoming
N late. Gusts 20 kt possible at northern terminals,, and 25 kt
possible at southern terminals.

Friday night...IFR conditions. Snow north and rain/snow south.
NW wind. Gusts 20 kt possible at northern terminals,, and 25 kt
possible at southern terminals.

Saturday through Saturday night ...IFR/MVFR conditions at
northern terminals due to in snow/rain, and VFR conditons at
southern terminals. W to NW wind.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR conditions. NW/W wind.
Elevated gusts 25-30 kt possible during the day Sunday.

Monday through Monday night...VFR conditions becoming MVFR/IFR
in likely snow. S/SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Possible wind shear late
Monday. Could be some patchy fog at southern terminals Monday
night as well.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft conditions continue today with seas
around 5ft over the outer waters. Seas lower late this evening.
Visibilities will be reduced over water in fog and drizzle today
with rain moving in later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions forecast for Friday
night into Saturday due to wind gusts and seas. Could be Small
Craft Advisory conditions again Saturday night into Sunday
night. Reduced visibility at times on Friday due to patchy fog
and rain showers. Potential for a rain/snow mix or snow that
transitions over to rain on Monday. Winds shift E to N Friday
into Friday night, and then to the W by Saturday. Winds SW on
Saturday, and then NW by Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Significant snowpack loss has occurred over the past few days.
A few inches of snow water equivalent remains, mainly in
sheltered wooded areas from the Central Highlands north. An
increased period of snowmelt comes today into tomorrow.

Thankfully, the natural flow under river ice is below normal
and river rises will remain gradual on the larger rivers, though
some smaller streams have risen faster. River ice will continue
to undergo weakening through thermal rot.

River ice is breaking up in many locations, leading to an
elevated risk for ice jam flooding through the next few days.
Rivers Downeast are increasingly becoming ice-free.

An ice jam was reported on the Penobscot near Milford, causing
high water, but no impacts have currently been reported.

An ice jam was reported on the Pleasant River at the Pleasant
St bridge in Milo. The Pleasant River Road is currently closed
due to water on the road.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/LaFlash
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash/Brennan
Marine...Buster/LaFlash/Brennan
Hydrology...