Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 212315
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
615 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High
pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will cross
the region Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:15 pm update: Low pressure in the eastern Maritimes will lift
out into the northwest Atlantic tonight. Strong high pressure
centered across Ohio will move east and into central PA late
tonight. A strong pressure gradient between the departing low and
building high will produce a gusty northwest wind across the FA.
This will lead to blowing snow, especially in northern areas
where the recent storm fell as all snow. The visibility will
locally be poor in open areas along with some drifting snow.
Conditions will not be all that bad in towns and more protected
areas.

The other concern for tonight will be low wind chills.
Most areas already have wind chills in the 10 to 20 below range,
but a few spots such as Greenville and Frenchville have had
wind chills in the 20 to 25 below range early this evening. The
wind chills overnight into early Tuesday will be around 20
below Down East and closer to 30 below at times across northern
areas.

There will continue to be some very light snow or flurries at
times, mainly across the eastern zones, but no more than a
dusting of add`l accumulation is expected. No major changes at
this time, just a few tweaks based on the latest observations
and satellite and radar trends.

Previous discussion:
Intense low pressure will remain across the Gulf of Saint
Lawrence, with high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes,
tonight. The tight pressure gradient will produce north to
northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph. The winds will produce
significant blowing snow across northern portions of the region
where heavy snow fell yesterday. A Winter Weather Advisory for
Blowing Snow remains in effect across northern and central
portions of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning. The
winds and cold temperatures will also produce dangerous wind
chills overnight. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued across
the entire forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning, with
readings ranging from around 20 below to around 30 below zero
north, to around 20 below zero Downeast. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy skies along with scattered/isolated snow showers are
expected across the region early tonight, with decreasing clouds
overnight. High pressure will build toward the region Tuesday
with mostly sunny skies along with decreasing winds during the
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
around 5 below to around 10 below zero north, with around zero
to 5 below zero interior Downeast with around zero to 5 above
along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Tuesday will range
from around 10 north, to the mid to upper teens interior
Downeast with upper teens to around 20 along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will crest over the region Tuesday evening then
move east into the Atlantic. Low pressure is expected to pass to
the northwest of New England Wednesday afternoon and evening.
This will result in over-running snow developing across the
region on Wednesday. The snow is expected to change to rain
along the coast and across interior Downeast Wednesday night.
On Thursday the low pressure center is expected to jump to the
Maine Coast then move northeastward into New Brunswick later in
the day. This will result in precipitation continuing through
the day Thursday. The precipitation will stay all snow across
the far north but is expected to change to rain across central
areas and the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak low pressure is expected to move across the region on
Friday. High pressure will then build in from the west Saturday.
A cold front is then expected to approach from the west Sunday
and move across the state Sunday evening. High pressure will
then build in from the northwest on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR/MVFR conditions across the
region early tonight, with VFR conditions developing overnight.
VFR conditions are expected Tuesday. However, blowing snow will
produce variable conditions across northern areas tonight into
Tuesday morning. North to northwest winds will gust up to 25 to
30 mph tonight into early Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect into Tuesday
afternoon. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect
this evening into Tuesday morning, with moderate freezing spray
expected later Tuesday. Visibilities could be reduced in any
scattered snow showers early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds. A southerly
fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine on
Wednesday with wave heights building to 9-10 feet/10 seconds
Wednesday evening. Wave heights are expected to continue to
build into early Thursday. Total Water Level: Surge guidance
develops a reverse surge through Tuesday with off-shore winds.
Guidance levels look a little low so will off-set this with
+0.50 Base Tide Anomaly through Tuesday then gradually lower
this over next few days.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM
     EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone


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