736
FXUS61 KCAR 090135
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
935 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will lift northeast of Maine through Quebec on
Monday and into Labrador on Tuesday. An upper level ridge will
build into the area Tuesday through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
935 PM Update: Latest radar ref imagery shows most if not all
of the lgt rn shwrs ovr the NE now dissipated ovr the Nrn
Maritimes. Meanwhile, shwrs directly associated with the upper
low are apchg the NW NE/QB border. We increase PoPs in this area
slightly from the prev fcst update. We also increased SC cld
cvr for the N hlf of the FA Late Tngt and Mon Morn by an
additional 10 percent based on the solid cvrg on Sat imagery ovr
Cntrl QB.

Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the Late Ngt
hrs using latest avbl Mid Eve sfc obs. Despite temps falling
more quickly in the erly Eve hrs across Nrn areas due to brief
pd of mclr skies and lgt winds, the rate of temp fall should
lvl off ovr this area as cld cvr and blyr winds increase durg
the Ovrngt hrs, so again no chgs attm to fcst ovrngt lows posted
arnd 6am Mon Morn.

Prev Disc: Cannot rule out a showers over the north early
evening but these should diminish after sunset. Dewpoints have
dropped into the 40s over most of the area and with drier air am
not expecting much in the way of valley fog to develop tonight.
Wind looks to remain well-mixed over land tonight and will be
another negative for river valley fog overnight. Mins should be
able to dip into the lower 40s over the northwest.

H5 low lifts into the Newfoundland and Labrador on Monday with
blyr drying out from southwest to northeast in the afternoon.
Sunny skies likely to start the day over Downeast in the morning
with mostly sunny skies as far north as Katahdin in the
afternoon. Temps will likely reach near 70 degrees over srn
areas with low-mid 60s reached acrs the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night into Tuesday shortwave energy at 500mb will
transect the state with still cool pocket remaining overhead at
850mb. Tuesday AM the pressure gradient will be weak so
expecting calm or very light winds. This will result in lows in
the upper 40s to around 50F along the Downeast coast into the
Central Highlands. Across the north expecting low to mid 40s
with some upper 30s in the North Woods and cold spots along the
Aroostook River basin. Tuesday is a decent day, dry but a lot of
clouds north with a beautiful day in the Central Highlands to
Downeast coast with mostly sunny skies. This is expected with
the 500mb trof slowly pushing east and NW downslope winds off
the Longfellow Mtns. Winds may gust at times up to 20mph with
temperatures in the low to mid 60s north and upper 60s to low
70s from the Greater Bangor region to the Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall heading into middle of September we see negative NAO
setting up with much of the ensemble spaghetti plots less than
0.5SD negative. Operationally in the models we see large
negative 500mb height anomalies setting up over Newfoundland
near Greenland. PNA will be turning more positive over the next
several days as the jet stream becomes more amplified. The
pattern is turning warmer and drier into the long term. Heading
from mid to late week expect a high pressure system to get
stronger with a 500mb dome setting up over the Great Lakes. This
does allow for a little weakness over the top of the ridge into
Maine so it is possible a weak shortwave slides down Thursday
night into Friday.

High temperatures into the mid to upper 70s with even some low
80s returning by Thursday across the area. Dew points work back
into the upper 50s to low 60s so a touch more humid than things
have been across the area. Mostly sunny skies expected through
the long term as well with light winds. A few more clouds
possible on that Thursday-Friday timeframe with the weakness in
the 500mb ridge over Maine. Wednesday AM will see some river
valley fog. Heading into the Thursday-Saturday timeframe each
morning we may see some patchy fog in a more widespread area
including locations outside of river valleys with increased
boundary layer moisture.

Next Sunday will be a challenge with several model solutions
showing a backdoor cold front sneaking in across the area.
However, we are looking at D7-8 timeframe with a ton of
uncertainty in the ensemble spread. Will opt to stick with NBM
as statistically this is best bet this far out. This shows
cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover and cannot rule out
some showers but so far POPs less than 15%.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue from HUL south into
Downeast terminals next 24 hours. Northern Aroostook terminals
VFR this afternoon and evening with perhaps an MVFR cig late
tonight and into early Mon morning. SW winds diminish with
sunset before gusting again late morning.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...AM BR/BCFG. Otherwise VFR. Low end VFR
cigs north. NW winds 5-10kt with gusts up 20kt possible.

Wednesday...AM BR/BCFG. Otherwise VFR. W winds 5-15kt.

Thursday...AM BR/BCFG. Otherwise VFR. W-SW winds 5-10kt.

Friday...AM BR/BCFG. Otherwise VFR. W-NW winds 5-10kt north,
W-SW 5-10kt south terms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to near marginal small craft levels
over the outer waters tonight, along with seas approaching 4-5
feet, though will likely remain below headline criteria through
the period.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through the end of
the week. Seas subside to 2-3ft on Tue and then 1-2ft Wed-Fri.
Patchy fog may reduce vsby again at night starting Wed night.
Sea surface temperatures are running in the 55-60F range from
the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Penobscot Bay. 53-55F water temperatures for Passamaquoddy Bay
along the Hague Line near the entrance to the Bay of Fundy.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...VJN/Sinko
Marine...VJN/Sinko