Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 022200
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push off the Downeast coast this evening.
High pressure will build across the region Sunday night through
Monday. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
through early Wednesday. High pressure will build across the
region later Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM Update: Convection has weakened and is fizzling out along
the Downeast coast. The last of the showers will be ending
early this evening. The threat of small hail/gusty wind has
ended and has been removed. Otherwise, just very minor tweaks
based on the latest radar trends and observations.

Previous discussion:
The cold frontal boundary is moving across the area this
afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
frontal boundary is easily identified by wind shifts, a narrow
ribbon of 20C H925 temps, and by CU/CBs on METSAT imagery.
There`s good SBCAPE up to 1500 J/kg Downeast and bulk shear is
clearly helping to maintain the storms, but there`s not a lot of
moisture. Can`t rule out small hail with the strongest
cells, and added mention of hail and winds in the late
afternoon forecast. This maintains consistency with the new
upgraded SPC marginal risk ahead of the front. The
thundershowers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating in
the Downeast region early this evening. For tonight into
tomorrow, the main story is progressively cooler air behind a
series of surface troughs rotating southward from Quebec. A cold
upper low over northern Quebec will supply upper level
shortwaves with each trough. The first crosses tonight and
features strong thermal gradients at H925 and H850. H925 temps
will be some 10C cooler by early Sunday morning in northern
zones. Dew points will plummet into the 40s to low 50s, versus
today`s values in the mid 60s. The first trough crosses late
tonight. With little moisture, shallow instability around H700
and no daytime heating, precipitation is not expected. It may
produce a few sprinkles as it moves southward across the
forecast area on Sunday, but measurable precip is unlikely. The
next trough arrives in the Saint John Valley later Sunday
afternoon with even cooler air. Once again, there`s little
moisture and just a modest unstable layer from cloud bases to
maybe H600. Am forecasting just one hundredth of an inch with
this trough for northern Aroostook County. In terms of
temperatures, expect a more comfortable night tonight with lows
dipping into the 50s, and even 40s in the North Woods. For
Sunday, highs will range from the lower 70s north to around 80F
for Bangor and the coast. Expect a deep mixed layer to maximize
afternoon surface temps in spite of the cool air aloft. This
deep mixed layer will also produce gusty west winds. Max gusts
will be in the 20 to 25 mph range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance tracks north of the region early Sunday
night, while surface high pressure builds across the region.
Across northern areas, expect partly cloudy skies along with the
slight chance of a shower early Sunday night with mostly clear
skies overnight. Expect mostly clear skies Downeast Sunday
night. High pressure crosses the region Monday with mostly/partly
sunny skies north, mostly sunny Downeast. Low pressure moving
east across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front north to New
England Monday night. Expect partly cloudy skies north Monday
night. Across Downeast areas, expect increasing clouds with a
slight chance of showers late. The low tracks across southern
New England Tuesday, while a cold front slowly settles south
across the region. However, the exact track of the low remains
uncertain. The better rain chances Tuesday will occur across
Downeast areas, closer to the track of the low. Lesser rain
chances will exist northward across the remainder of the
forecast area. Rain totals Tuesday will be dependent on the
eventual track of the low. Expect near normal level temperatures
Monday. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level
temperatures Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low reaches the southeast New England coast Tuesday night,
though uncertainty persists with the exact track. Could still have a
chance of rain, mostly central/Downeast areas, Tuesday night.
Only a chance of showers expected across northern areas. Low
pressure exits to the east early Wednesday, with building high
pressure late. Could still have a slight chance of showers early
Wednesday Downeast dependent on the eventual track. High
pressure crosses the region Thursday, with a cold front possibly
starting to approach late. Timing differences exist with the
front. A faster frontal progression could bring a chance of
showers starting Thursday night. A slower progression could
delay shower/thunderstorm chances til Friday. A chance of
showers/thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front. The
front should exit Friday night. High pressure should then build
across the region Saturday. Expect near normal level
temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Isolated showers with winds gusting to 20kt are possible
Sunday, cloud bases will likely be above 5K ft. Otherwise, W
wind diminishing to around 5 knots tonight and increasing to 7
to 15 knots on Sunday with a few higher gusts.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower
early Sunday night north. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots
Sunday night, then 10 to 15 knots Monday.

Monday night...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late Downeast
with a slight chance of showers. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR possible Downeast. A chance of
rain Downeast, with lesser chances to the north. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots.

Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early with a chance
of showers then VFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR
possible early. A chance of rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...Occasional MVFR possible early Downeast with a
slight chance of showers. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No advisories are expected. Southwest winds will
decrease this evening and then increase again Sunday afternoon
with gusts up to 15kt. Seas around 4 ft offshore will slowly
decrease towards 3 ft on Sunday. Offshore fog will be swept out
by the cold front this evening and will not return through
Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
night through Tuesday. A slight chance of showers late Monday
night. A chance of rain Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...CB/MCW/Norcross
Marine...CB/MCW/Norcross


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.