556
FXUS62 KCHS 221010
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
610 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure to the south will prevail through Saturday, with
a cold front then poised to push through the area Monday. High
pressure will then prevail through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Today: Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, with
latest observations showing light winds and temperatures in the upper
30s to 40s - the warmest along the coast. Outside of some patchy
frost this morning, the only main concern throughout the daylight
hours will be marginally breezy southwesterly winds. Currently have
gusts up to 20 MPH. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs to warm into
the upper 60s across Lake Moultrie and the coast, with areas inland
rising into the lower 70s.

Tonight: Moisture starved cold front dives across the region this
evening, causing winds to shift to the northwest. Gusts are expected
to quickly diminish after sunset, with skies remaining mostly clear
overnight. Lows will be a touch milder than this morning, as
temperatures only fall into the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

On Sunday a zonal flow will prevail aloft while surface high
pressure expands over the western Atlantic. High temps will be
above normal away from the coast where readings will reach the
upper 70s. A decent sea breeze will maintain considerably cooler
temps within a few miles of the coast.

A fast-moving shortwave will pass through the area on Monday,
pushing a cold front through the area during the afternoon and
evening. Forcing and moisture return will be limited with the
front. Mainly scattered showers are expected, though there could
be enough instability for isolated thunderstorms as well.
Precipitation totals should be less than 0.20" for most areas. A
30-40 kt 925 mb jet and relatively deep mixing will produce
breezy conditions, particularly over southern SC.

Dry high pressure expected to prevail on Tuesday. Thickness
advection and mostly sunny skies will yield above normal highs
in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly dry conditions expected with at or above normal
temperatures. A reinforcing, dry cold front will move through
Wednesday night, followed by more high pressure through late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this TAF cycle. Main concern
throughout the period will be breezy southwesterly winds, with gusts
up to 25 kts possible during the this afternoon. Otherwise,
look for gusts to gradually subside near/after sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible at all terminals on Monday due to showers and/or
possibly thunderstorms occurring with a passing cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Increasing low-level winds ahead of an advancing
front will result in southwesterly gusts between 20 to 25 kt late
this morning through afternoon. Strongest gusts look to occur across
the Charleston County coastal waters, thus have gone ahead an issued
a Small Craft Advisory, which will be in effect from noon until 8
PM. Breezy winds then look to gradually diminish through the evening
and overnight period.

Sunday Onward: Decent SW low-level jetting ahead of a cold front on Monday
will likely require Small Craft Advisories for most marine zones
due to frequent 25 kt wind gusts. Sub-advisory conditions
expected for the remainder of the week

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


Sunny skies, dry westerly winds, and compressional heating ahead of
an advancing front will result in relative humidity values between
20-25%. Latest soundings show upwards of 25 kt at the top of
the mixed layer, with values near the sfc closer to 20 kt.
While these factors combined with dry fuels will certainly lead
to some elevated fire danger, do not anticipate reaching Red
Flag conditions across our area. Thus, plan to leave the current
Fire Danger Statement as is, which will be in effect from 11 AM
through 7 PM today. As always, we encourage you to be cautious
with any activity that may cause a spark..

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SST
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JRL/SST
MARINE...JRL/SST