Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 090502
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1102 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.AVIATION...

Very minimal changes from the previous aviation package. Mostly
VFR conditions with intermittent periods of MVFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals through the cycle. Winds have decoupled
faster than anticipated at the eastern terminals, and have
currently become light, while the western sites have remained
breezy. Winds at all terminals should subside closer to midnight
and become light. The combination of increased moisture and
lighter winds may lead to MVFR conditions across inland terminals
late tonight, with patchy fog possible particularly across the
Victoria Crossroads. Winds are expected to strengthen again on
Tuesday as a LLJ mixes down to the surface leading to gusty
southeasterly winds around 25-30 mph. Breezy conditions are then
likely to persist through the end of the forecast cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 556 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail trough the TAF cycle
at all terminals. Increased moisture overnight may bring some
lower ceilings/visibilities leading to possible MVFR conditions by
early Tuesday morning. Therefore, have maintained TEMPO groups to
account for this. However, confidence in occurrence of these MVFR
conditions remains low due to a SSE 20-30 kts LLJ developing
overhead and possibly limiting the fog and low cloud deck
potential. Otherwise, expect winds to continue to decouple this
evening, becoming light 5-10 kts late tonight. Winds will mix
down to the surface on Tuesday and lead to breezy conditions with
gusts to 25-30 kts expected across the area by the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Another nice day with temperatures in the 70s area-wide this
afternoon, with cool and mostly clear conditions right along the
coast for beach goers.

With persistent onshore flow, will expect moisture to continue to
be drawn into the region throughout the short term. This will
lead to overnight lows being a few degrees warmer than last night.
There is also concern for fog for tonight across inland areas;
however, with a SSE 20-30 KT LLJ, fog may be hindered, leaving
tonight as a mostly stratus event.

Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the region from the
southwest leading to warming temperatures for Tuesday, with highs
out west across the Brush Country to even approach the low 80s.
Surface area of low pressure will develop across the southern High
Plains which will result in breezier conditions for Tuesday,
especially across the Coastal Bend, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines expected for the Gulf waters tonight and Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories will be possible for Tuesday night.

Temperatures for Tuesday night, once again, should be warmer by a
few degrees, with overnight lows expected to range in the lower
60s area-wide. Fog should be hindered for Tuesday night as the
LLJ is expected to be even stronger than tonight.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Quiet weather persists through the remainder of the work week thanks
a deepening mid-level trough over the western US and weak ridging
over the central portion of the country. Surface riding to the east
of the region will work against deepening low pressure to the
northwest to create breezy conditions, especially over the Gulf
waters and Coastal Counties. This may also lead to an enhanced rip
current risk later in the week. Temperatures increase to well above
normal in western areas thanks to southwesterly flow above the
surface. High temperatures west will be around 90 with 80s over much
of the rest of the region, and 70s along the coast where the cool
waters will continue to play a big role.  Water temperatures over
the open waters are still in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with lower
60s in the bays. Water temperatures will continue to gradually warm,
but sea fog potential may increase by late week as dewpoints make it
into the mid and upper 60s. Rain chances remain minimal through
Friday.

By the weekend our next system will be approaching as the mid-level
trough progresses through the central US.  Timing is getting a bit
better between the models, with a spread of about 12 hours now.  GFS
has trended a bit slower, with ECMWF now adjusting much.  We`re
looking more at Saturday night into Sunday now for the best rain
chances and surface frontal passage. Should see enough instability
developing to get some thunderstorms along the front. Temperatures
cool back to around normal levels behind the front.

MARINE...

Weak to moderate east wind will turn out of the southeast tonight
and strengthen to more moderate levels across the offshore waters
through Tuesday. The onshore flow will strengthen further Tuesday
night with Small Craft Advisories possibly needed. Isolated
showers will remain possible through tonight.

Moderate to strong onshore flow will continue through the rest of
the week. The combination of strong winds and building seas will
likely result in Small Craft Advisory conditions across much of the
Gulf waters beginning Tuesday and continuing through the end of the
week. The potential for sea fog returns late in the week as winds
decrease just a touch. The next cold front is expected for the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  78  63  80  66  /  10  10  10   0   0
Victoria          56  77  60  80  65  /  10  10  10   0  10
Laredo            60  85  63  88  66  /   0   0  10   0   0
Alice             57  81  61  85  66  /  10  10  10   0   0
Rockport          60  73  63  75  66  /  10  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           58  84  62  88  65  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        58  79  62  83  65  /  10  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       62  73  64  74  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

ANM/88...AVIATION



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