Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 012013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
313 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery shows deeper Gulf moisture
located off the coast of Tamalupias this afternoon. As a veered
near surface wind profile becomes more southeasterly through the
evening and overnight hours, it will advect this moisture into
South Texas and spread low stratus across the region by dawn
Thursday. Increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer
overnight with lows only falling into the 60s inland and near 70
along the coast.

Continued moisture return will allow for isolated showers to
stream across South Texas during the day Thursday. Quasizonal
flow aloft becomes increasingly divergent as a shortwave trough
lifts into the Southern Plains and an associated steepening of
mid-level lapse rates will allow for isolated thunderstorm
development as well across the northern Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads during the afternoon hours. Cloud cover and spotty
periods of rain will keep most locations east of Interstate 37 in
the 70s on Thursday with low to mid 80s expected closer to the Rio
Grande. A break in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is
expected Thursday night as weak subsidence overspreads the region
behind the daytime shortwave with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s
and patchy fog possible near the Victoria Crossroads.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Moisture will steadily increase over the region on Friday in advance
of a cold front that will be moving into central Texas in the
afternoon. Precipitable water values will increase to 1.6-1.7 inches
areawide Friday afternoon. Timing of impulses in the subtropical
flow from northern Mexico into south Texas are problematic at this
stage with models showing some differences. Air mass is expected to
become moderately unstable by late afternoon with MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/kg over the northern Brush Country into the Hill
Country in advance of the front with 0-6 km shear values of 50-60
knots. Storms that develop in the late afternoon into the evening
could become severe as they move into Brush Country. SPC has this
region in slight risk for Day 3 with marginal risk for the rest of
the area. Models are not in agreement with timing and placement of
frontal boundary moving into the region late Friday night into
Saturday morning with the NAM close to the coast while the GFS and
ECMWF along with NBM were over the inland coastal plains. Will show
northeast winds across areas north of a line from Hebbronville to
Victoria for Saturday. This frontal boundary will be focus for
additional convective development on Saturday as another upper level
impulse is expected to move out of Mexico into the region. Training
of storms could lead to some locally heavy rainfall especially over
the Victoria Crossroads.

There may be a lull in the convection as the impulse moves to the
east and more stable air behind the front settles into south Texas
Saturday night. ECMWF shows additional high amounts of QPF over the
region for Saturday night, so reluctant to reduce PoPs too far. Kept
chance PoPs for most areas Saturday night. The frontal boundary is
expected to drift back inland on Sunday with another impulse moving
out of Mexico. PoPs will range from low chance along the coast to
likely over the western Brush Country Sunday with PoPs slightly
lower for Sunday night.

Models are similar late in the period with an upper low off the
coast of northern California Monday morning diving south-southeast
into southern California/northern Baja for Wednesday. An active
subtropical jet will remain over north-central Mexico into the Brush
Country through the period. Will keep PoPs at chance category for
western counties through this period with slight chance toward the
coast with temperatures warming back to above normal Monday through



Light to moderate onshore flow Thursday may strengthen to near
SCEC levels Thursday night. Onshore flow will continue to increase
moisture Friday into Saturday. Moderate onshore flow/SCEC
conditions will be possible across the offshore waters and
southern bays Friday ahead of the front. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Friday night and Saturday due to an
approaching cold front. Weak to moderate northeast winds may occur
along the coast Saturday night as the frontal boundary pushes
into the Gulf. The frontal boundary is expected to move inland on
Sunday with a weak to moderate onshore flow prevailing into Monday
with rain chances limited to along the coast.


Corpus Christi    67  80  72  82  71  /  10  20  10  30  50
Victoria          62  78  69  81  68  /  20  30  30  40  60
Laredo            69  86  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  40  40
Alice             65  82  69  86  70  /  10  20  10  40  50
Rockport          69  79  73  79  71  /  10  20  10  20  50
Cotulla           65  81  69  86  67  /  10  20  10  60  60
Kingsville        66  83  70  85  70  /  10  10  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       70  78  73  77  72  /  10  20  10  20  50





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