Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 182337
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
637 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue with cloud deck mainly in the 7-10kft
layer, however during the day on Tuesday will see a lower deck
develop...but should stay just above the MVFR threshold. A few
showers will be possible late in the night and during tomorrow.
Chances rather slim, but will keep a VCSH for ALI and CRP during
the late morning and afternoon where chances are more likely.
Winds light to moderate from the northeast to southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

The left front quadrant of an upper jet streak (GFS deterministic)
may contribute to isolated showers this evening over the SRN CWA.
Otherwise, the MSAS depicts the development of a weak coastal
trough. Deterministic models predict this trough to persist
tonight/Tuesday. The NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values to
increase above normal over the SRN CWA/SRN MSA tonight/Tuesday.
Expect the coastal trough/moisture to result in isolated/scattered
showers late tonight/Tuesday over the SRN CWA/SRN MSA. Tuesday
night, the right rear quadrant of another upper jet may provide
lift to mainly the CNTRL/WRN CWA and contribute to isolated
showers.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper ridge builds in to south Texas by Wednesday. However, a
few light showers will linger across the western areas Wednesday and
Thursday with cloudy skies continuing elsewhere due to weak
isentropic upglide.

A strong upper low will move into the California Coast on Thursday
and slide eastward toward the Four Corners area by late week into
the weekend.  Will see rain chances increase areawide Friday through
Saturday as weak shortwaves move around the base of the upper low.
Sea fog also expected to develop over the bays and near shore waters
as warm air moves over the cool water.  Drier air moves in on Sunday
and Monday as the upper low heads northeast. Will see clouds clear
out with afternoon highs warming back into the 80s.

MARINE...

A coastal trough will contribute to isolated/scattered convection
tonight/Tuesday. Anticipate SCEC wind/seas overnight over the
offshore waters. SCA seas may occur Tuesday/Tuesday night
offshore. Coordinated with BRO WFO and will defer to later
shifts to decide on timing of SCA issuance, if any. Weak to
moderate onshore flow expected on Wednesday, with winds shifting
to the northeast by Thursday morning as high pressure builds in.
Winds will shift back to the southeast on Friday, with moderate to
strong onshore flow possible from Friday into Saturday. Scattered
convection is expected Friday through Saturday as upper level
disturbances interact with the deepening moisture over the region.
Sea fog will likely form over the bays and near shore waters
Saturday and continue into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  69  59  70  58  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          48  70  53  72  50  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            51  69  57  70  57  /  10  20  30  30  30
Alice             50  69  56  71  57  /  10  20  20  30  20
Rockport          55  68  59  69  57  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           46  68  55  71  55  /  10  10  20  20  10
Kingsville        51  69  58  71  58  /  20  20  20  30  20
Navy Corpus       57  69  62  68  59  /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PH/83...AVIATION


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