Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 292143
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
343 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

The overall synoptic pattern this afternoon across the
country consists of a southeast Canadian mid-level low with the
trough axis extending down across New England and offshore. A
smaller mid-level disturbance over the Southern Plains today will
lift northeast over the next few days. For tonight there`s low
confidence of a Coastal Trough bringing some showers this evening
through the overnight hours so, opted to stick with silent PoP`s.
Meanwhile, another low off the Pacific NW Coast will dig a little
further southeast over this weekend before lifting northeast over
Canada. Closer to home, a Quasi-zonal flow will be in place
across much of Texas through the weekend.

The afternoon highs for today should top out in the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees across the region. Tomorrow will be warmer with
highs ranging in the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight will range
from mid 40s to 50s then temperatures will range in the 50s tomorrow
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Key Messages:


-Above normal temperatures continuing through the period

-Slight chance of thunderstorms early next week


There isn`t much change to the long term from the previous issuance.
Temperatures are expected to remain fairly warm and above average
for this time of year. Temperatures will be in the lower to upper
80s for majority of the period and even potentially reaching 90s out
west by Tuesday. Early next week, a cold front will be ejected from
a long wave trough. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty
about the front as it moves northwest to southeast of how far south
it will reach. Some models show the front making it to the coast,
but others show it stalling just north of the Victoria Crossroads
and Coastal Plains and lifting back northwards. Either way some H5
vorticity will be associated with this boundary if it is able to
reach the CWA in addition some decent amounts of CAPE (1000-1600
J/kg per GFS/ECMWF). The caveat to this is there is a cap in most
spots, so storms will have difficulty getting going. There is some
breaks in CIN values scattered across the area which gives a chance
for some showers and storms to potentially get going. Therefore
there is a 20-50% for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday
with best chances being over the waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Dry conditions during this TAF cycle is expected to preclude
development of fog so not expecting much impact to VSBY`s. Have a
mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings currently and do not expect much
improvement through the afternoon due to the cloud deck as it
moves northeast across the region. Overnight tonight (after
midnight) expecting mainly MVFR/IFR borderline CIG`s with some
sites possibly dropping to IFR ceilings. These conditions are
expected through the end of this TAF Cycle (18Z).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this evening as winds
and seas slowly recede. Generally expecting moderate northeasterly
flow to continue diminishing tonight, becoming weak tomorrow, and
then veering back onshore tomorrow night. Weak flow may then
become variable ahead of the next front expected early in the week.
As the cold front approaches the region, there will be a medium
chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters of the Middle Texas Coast Monday through Tuesday.
Otherwise, generally weak onshore flow will prevail for the
remainder of the the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  73  57  79 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          49  72  54  79 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            52  77  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             50  75  54  83 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          52  70  59  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           47  78  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        51  72  55  81 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       55  69  61  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...BF


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