Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051726
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...

18Z aviation discussion follows.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the day today
light winds below 10 knots, with occasional wind gusts around 16
knots across all sites expect LRD. Late night/early morning fog is
possible at ALI similar to this morning with a lower stratus deck
across all other sites except for VCT which can result in a lower
broken ceiling. Any fog or lower ceilings that develops over
night should dissipate/move out from the area giving way to VFR
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...

12Z aviation discussion follows.

AVIATION...

Fog is beginning to expand from NQI to near ALI, but conditions at
CRP and VCT are less favorable and as a result lower visbys here
appear unlikely. After fog dissipates by 8-9 AM at ALI, VFR will
persist through the night with SE winds from 10-15 knots. For now,
a repeat of morning fog by Thursday is not in the cards.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

For the next 36 hours, South Texas remains under the southeast
extension of an upper ridge emanating from a high over West
Texas. To the northeast of this ridge axis is where the corridor
of NW flow convection will remain for the foreseeable future as
our area resides under subsidence and diminishing PWATs. With
surface ridging now over the central Gulf, we should see improved
SE gradient flow today and a better inland push to the sea
breeze. This should keep highs from getting too hot over the
Coastal Plains today which in turn curbs heat indices to just
below 105 for most areas. However, Thursday holds better potential
for higher heat indices encompassing more real estate as
dewpoints fail to mix out as much as today. Lastly, a few models
are progging a subtle decay of the upper ridge axis by Thursday
morning which may allow for some streamer showers primarily south
of our coastal waters.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

High pressure continues to be the story for the beginning of the
extended period. Models show a mid-level ridge set up over most of
TX Thursday. The high pressure center shifts and becomes more
localized in the NE portion of the state, leaving our area in a
transition zone between high pressure to the north and low pressure
just to the south in Mexico. At the surface there is a pressure
gradient that strengthens heading into the weekend, particularly in
the westernmost portion of the CWA as well as the Coastal Waters and
Coastal Plains. With this, winds look to be weak to moderate, though
trending more towards the moderate side in the aforementioned areas.

SE flow will allow for moisture to filter into the area during the
end of the work week into early next week. With PWAT values
increasing, PoPs are in the forecast this weekend for the Coastal
Waters, Coastal Plains, and Victoria Crossroads. Beginning Friday
and continuing through the end of the extended showers are
possible each morning and convective activity is possible each
afternoon along the seabreeze. Max temperatures for most of the
area remain in the 90s each day with the Rio Grande Plains seeing
temperatures at or above 100 degrees. Low temperatures will be in
the 70s and 80s.

Heat indices for most of the area will range from 105-109 degrees
with some locations in the Coastal Plains seeing heat index values
at or just above 110 degrees.

MARINE...

A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of
the week and into weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over the weekend and into next week. A moderate flow is
possible in the offshore waters early next week. Seas will be around
2 feet on Thursday before building to 3 feet by Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  94  77  94  /   0   0   0   0  10
Victoria          96  75  95  76  97  /   0   0   0   0  20
Laredo           100  77 100  77 101  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  75  97  75  98  /   0   0   0   0  10
Rockport          91  82  91  81  94  /   0   0   0   0  10
Cotulla          101  74 101  75 102  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  75  96  76  96  /   0   0   0   0  20
Navy Corpus       90  81  90  81  92  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

JCP/84...AVIATION



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