Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201749
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 18Z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the period.
Wind gusts will pick up this afternoon, with gusts from 20-25
knots out of the south-southeast possible. Several of the latest
CAMs develop isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
primarily at VCT and LRD as a weakening frontal boundary
approaches the region. Carried the VCTS at VCT for a couple hours
to start off the period with a mention of VCTS at LRD later this
afternoon. Wind gusts and rain chances will taper off during the
evening hours. Some low level clouds will develop again
overnight/early Tuesday morning before lifting shortly after
sunrise.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z Aviation.

AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period at all
terminals, with the exception of brief TEMPO groups to account
for MVFR ceilings possible this morning across ALI/CRP/VCT.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across
the area, but at this time only kept a mention of VCTS at VCT.
Weak onshore flow this morning will pick-up once again this
afternoon, with winds becoming gusty in the late afternoon, before
gradually diminishing overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

The short wave trough across the Central Plains and embedded cold
front continues to shift eastward today, with the front expected
to remain over the Hill Country and well north of our area.
Although this frontal boundary should stall to our north, moisture
pooling ahead of the front may provide for convection to develop
across the area today and tomorrow. The higher moisture content
is expected to remain along the Victoria Crossroads in the
morning today, and shift northwest across the Brush Country this
afternoon. At this time kept only 10 percent PoPs throughout most
of the CWA, with 20 percent PoPs across our northwest to account
for possible convective development throughout the day. Otherwise,
a very hot and humid day is in store for South Texas, with
dangerous heat index values of 110-114 degrees expected across the
southern Coastal Bend this afternoon, with the remainder of the
CWA experiencing heat index values in the 105-109 degrees range.
Similar temperatures could be expected for Tuesday with a more
persistent forecast. A generally moderate onshore flow is expected
across the area today, with winds becoming lighter by tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...

Enough moisture will linger near the northeast part of the forecast
area into the northern part of the marine zones to keep a slight
chance of convection in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The mid to upper level ridge will build over Texas through the end
of the week and keep the area dry with slightly above normal
temperatures. Afternoon heat index values will approach the 105 to
109 range each day. The ridge axis will gradually translate to the
north by the weekend with slightly deeper moisture moving into the
coastal waters on Saturday and into the coastal plains on Sunday to
provide a slight chance of thunderstorms. With southeast flow
through a deeper layer by the weekend, the high temperatures will
be near or slightly below normal over the coastal plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  97  76  95  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          76  99  75  97  74  /  10  20  20  10  10
Laredo            79 104  78 103  78  /  20  10  10  10  10
Alice             75 101  74  99  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          80  92  81  92  79  /  10  20  20  10  10
Cotulla           75 102  75 101  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        78 100  75  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       82  93  82  92  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening For the following
     zones: Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Inland Kleberg...
     Inland Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TC/95...AVIATION


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