Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 312024
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
324 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Light east to southeast winds will slowly bring in higher boundary
layer moisture through the evening hours over the coastal plains.
The dewpoint temperatures have risen to the upper 50s along the
coast and lower 50s for the inland coastal plains this afternoon.
Winds will become light overnight and expect radiational fog to
form over the inland coastal plains around 08Z and continue until
14-15Z on Sunday. Patchy fog may drift westward into the eastern
portions of the Brush Country before daybreak.

Surface high pressure will be gradually pushing into the region
Sunday morning with winds picking up from the north. But low level
cold air advection will not arrive until late in the afternoon.
So the high temperatures will continue to show a slight warming
trend from today with highs mainly in the lower 80s except for
near the coast and the Victoria Crossroads.

High pressure will be building into the area Sunday night behind
the cold front. Winds will increase especially near the coast.
Lows will be 10-15 degrees below normal Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A quiet, mostly dry, warm up period is expected through the work
week as a subtropical high continues to build and push eastward into
Southwest Mexico, causing ridging aloft to dominate behind the cold
front. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough moves eastward over the
Great Plains extending into North Texas on Thursday. The high just
offshore of Southwest Mexico seems to overpower the trough,
prohibiting lift support aloft and therefore any rain chances for
South Texas. In addition, extremely dry levels above 850mb will
cause well below normal PWAT values, less than 1.0", with Monday and
Tuesday in some areas down to 0.25". A mid-level shortwave trough with
enhanced vorticity may extend down across South Texas Thursday
night into Friday, but with moisture limited over land especially,
only forecasting isolated showers over the waters on Friday.

Temperatures begin relatively cool on Monday, with highs in the
lower 70s; but as onshore flow returns on Tuesday due to the surface
high shifting eastward, temperatures and near surface moisture
advection will gradually increase through the work week. Highs are
expected to reach the lower 80s through the mid to late work week,
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak onshore flow this evening will become light and variable
during the overnight hours. Winds will shift to north Sunday
morning as a high pressure ridge pushes into the coastal waters.
A cold front will move into the waters Sunday evening with the
north to northeast winds becoming moderate to strong/SCA
conditions over the Gulf waters for Sunday night.

Moderate to strong northeasterly flow Monday may cause Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions for all waters. Winds are expected to
decrease to moderate west to east Monday night, where Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions remain possible over the offshore
waters. Weak to moderate northeasterly flow Tuesday will shift
southeasterly Tuesday night as high pressure moves eastward,
persisting through Thursday. Winds then become more east
northeasterly Thursday night into Friday, strengthening slightly to
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for the offshore. Isolated
showers are possible Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  81  51  73  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          51  79  44  71  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            54  83  50  74  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             52  83  49  74  46  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          59  80  54  71  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           52  83  46  74  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        53  82  50  74  46  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       59  80  59  70  60  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
EMF/94...LONG TERM


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