Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 100328
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1028 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of High pressure will extend across the Commonwealth for
the next few days. Other than a couple of weak disturbances
aloft bringing a few flurries at times over the northern tier,
it will remain dry through at least Thursday. Temperatures will
tend to moderate toward late week when the next storm of
significance looks to move into the area. Moderate to heavy rain
is possible Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The northern edge of a shield of thick cirrostratus covered
about the southeastern half of the CWA early this afternoon,
while thinner cirrus (allowing a decent amount of the low angle
sunshine through) was noted over the Northern Mountains of the
state.

The clouds will be the main, notable weather impact we`ll see
from a storm system thats pounding parts of the Central and
Southern Appalachians with heavy snow and mixed precipitation.

Little change in current cloud cover and wind will into the
evening hours.

Max temps will be well below normal today, but quite uniform in
the 30-35F range today. Some of the highest terrain of the
Laurel Highlands (where high cloud cover will stay relatively
thick/opaque) may only top out at around 28F.

Wind will be light and variable into Monday.

The high cloud cover will begin to decrease from NW to SE
overnight as the area of low pressure to our south slides
east off the NC Coast.

Mins early Monday will be between 15F and 22F. Some of the
cooler readings may be at SEG and THV, depending on how fast the
high clouds move away (and low - strato cu or stratus clouds
move into the far NW twd daybreak). But, much of the Allegheny
Plateau will be below 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models indicate low clouds slowly expanding SE across the NW
mtns during the morning hours (and perhaps reaching the Laurel
Highlands and North- Central PA) as a light NW LLVL flow with
shallow moisture develops with high pressure re-organizing to
cover mainly the Midwest and MS valley.

A few flurries (or even some -FZDZ) are possible Monday in the
north, with cloud temps AOA -8C. POPS are kept very low to NIL,
as the air is very dry and the sfc flow weak/NNWrly and
anticyclonic.

Mean LLVL will back through the west and to the WSW late
Monday/Monday night. This will help the low cloud deck to
fluctuate spatially, but no significant changes in mean temp or
depth of the cloud layer will occur.

Max temps Monday will be similar to today`s across the North and
West, while the SE zones see the Max temps recovering to within
6-8F of normal.

A weak trough moving down from northern Ontario will result in
ocnl very light snow or flurries along the New York border
Monday night and Tuesday. Any accumulation should be less than
an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast continues to feature a dry stretch of
weather through Thursday.

The next weather maker is a storm system that will drive through
the lower Mississippi valley toward the eastern Great Lakes
beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.

Above zero H850 temps flood across the state but there is a
hint of below zero over the far northwest counties Friday night
from the ECMWF. But the majority of the forecast area would be
rain...and a steady rain at that overnight Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dying cold front will push south into upstate NY late
tonight. Increasing low level moisture, combined with upslope
flow, ahead of this front will cause stratocu to spread into at
least northern Pa late tonight. Model soundings and SREF/HREF
probability charts indicate ifr cigs are likely at KBFD after
midnight and mvfr cigs are likely at KUNV/KIPT. There is more
uncertainty further south with regard to how far the clouds get,
so not currently including restrictions across southern Pa.
However, would not rule out low cigs later Monday morning over
the Laurel Highlands (KJST).

The main focus Monday will be on the possibility of lingering low
cigs across the high terrain of the Appalachians from KBFD to KJST.
Subsidence east of the mountains is likely to result in vfr conditions
all day across the southeast part of the state (KMDT/KLNS).

.Outlook...

Tue...Early AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Wed...Early AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Rain/low cigs possible, especially late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Tyburski
AVIATION...Fitzgerald


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