Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 022040
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
340 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry weather is expected in central PA
through early next week. Temperatures will bounce higher into
Wednesday before cooling down through into the weekend. A more
pronounced warming trend is projected to begin next week with
odds increasingly tilted toward above average temperatures into
mid March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Full sunshine as of 1800 UTC across CPA with a cool but pleasant
rest of the afternoon. Max temps 5-10F below daily climo. Clear
and not as cold tonight especially over the western and
northern mtns where a tightening p-gradient will sustain a
west- southwest breeze and effectively put a floor under low
temps in the 25-30F range. The coldest readings are likely to be
found over the south central to southeast valleys where the
boundary layer can decouple which should allow temps to bottom
out closer to sfc dewpts or around 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A weakening Alberta clipper sfc low streaking eastward across
the Saint Lawrence River Valley early Wed. will send a moisture
starved cold front southward across the lower Great Lakes into
CPA by tomorrow evening. The only sensible wx from this dry front
will be an uptick in the westerly breeze (common with dry
fronts) and increasing low clouds sinking southward from NY
into the northwest 1/2 of the CWA by 00Z Thu.

Max temps will bounce off the weekly lows on Tuesday and climb
10 to 20 degrees warmer, reaching the 50 degree mark across much
of south central PA (east of the mtns). We were keen to stay on
the warm-side of NBM across the southern 2/3rds of the CWA
given more sunshine and downslope flow/low level mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front crossing through the NE US will bring colder
temperatures by Thu, with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.
Northwest flow across the Glakes will bring a slight chance of
LES to the typical areas of the NW on Thu. Chilly air will
continue to flow into the area through the upcoming weekend as a
large upper trough remains over SE Canada.

As the upper trough moves offshore by early next week and high
pressure behind it moves into a Bermuda high position, warmer
temperatures will move in to start the second full week in
March. Long range guidance from CPC shows warmer temps likely
lingering into at least the middle of March.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR through tonight with winds shifting to the west-
southeast or to 230-260 degrees. 35-45kt LLWS fcst over the
northern 1/2 of the airspace late tonight into early AM Wed.
MVFR to low VFR cigs are likely to return to the northwest 1/2
of the airspace by 00Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...MVFR cigs psbl northwest 1/3 of the airspace with a
passing -shsn possible. Gusty winds 20-30kt from ~300 degrees.

Sat-Sun...VFR with decreasing winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Closing the books on winter season 2020-2021. Prelim data shows
Harrisburg finished as the 28th snowiest on record with a total
of 36.0 inches or +11.3 inches above the 30-year average.
Total snowfall at Williamsport ranked as the 8th snowiest
winter with 53.8 inches or +26.1 inches above the long term
mean.

February was also a notable month in the snowfall category
as Williamsport (8th snowiest with 22.0 inches), State College
(11th snowiest at 25.2 inches), and Harrisburg (18th snowiest
with 19.7 inches) set notable marks. Of additional note:
February of 2021 was the snowiest February since 2014 at all
three sites.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Colbert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...



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