281
FXUS61 KCTP 270239
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1039 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine, low humidity and seasonable warmth will prevail
through Sunday. Next week will turn more humid with increasing
warmth as well. The next best chance for rain will Tuesday-
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Another refreshingly clear/cool night in progress with min
temps ranging from the mid-upper 40s in the usual cold spots in
the NW Alleghenies to around 60 degrees in the LSV metro areas.
Essentially no changes to going forecast, which leaned on the
lowest 10th percentile NBM or closer to the traditional MAVMOS
given very favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Expect
patchy late night fog especially in the deep river/stream
valleys north of I-80 due to air/water temp differences >25
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fair and seasonably warm mid-summer conditions with low
humidity are anticipated Saturday, followed by increasingly
warmer/hotter and more humid conditions Sunday into Monday as
high pressure slips off the East Coast and a return southerly
flow develops.

Max temps range from 80-90F on Saturday (+5F above climo) to
85-95F on Sunday and Monday (+5-10F above climo).

Guidance shows a cutoff upper low retrograding into the northern
Mid Atlantic early next week, resulting in a slower more blocky
pattern evolution. Therefore, expect the chance of showers/storms
to remain over far western PA on Monday. There may also be more
cloud cover over the eastern part of the area and sky grids may
need to be increased in time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In conjunction with the retrograding low moving westward into PA
and the upper level trough pushing through the region from the
east, the best odds for rain will be Tue and Wed across central
PA. These two system interacting will provide plenty of lift and
moisture for shower and thunderstorm development. PoPs will be
highest on Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon as the cutoff
low gets ingested into the main wave of the trough as it digs
across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions.

There remains some uncertainty with how the upper level pattern
will progress after Wednesday, but building high pressure over
the western and central US will bring an increasing threat for
excessive heat as the calendar flips from July to August. As the
ridge builds, it seems we could be in a favorable ring of fire
pattern with daily chances for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across the region into this evening and
overnight. Localized mainly MVFR fog is possible at KBFD.
Similar conditions expected for Saturday and Sunday, as high
pressure remains over the area.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Dry weather with predominantly VFR conds expected.

Tue-Wed...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The average temperature from July 1 to July 25, 2024 at
Harrisburg is 80.7F, which is tied for the 3rd warmest July
1-25 period on record (81.8F in 2020, 81.5F in 1999, 80.7 in
1955).

The average temperature from June 1 to July 25, 2024 at
Harrisburg was 78.2F, which is the warmest meteorological
summer-to-date on record.

The average temperature from January 1 to July 25, 2024 at
Harrisburg is 56.3F, which is the warmest year-to-date on
record.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...DeVoir/Martin/Gartner
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Colbert