314
FXUS65 KCYS 101806
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1206 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple fronts will push through over the next couple of
  days, leading to increased precipitation chances heading into
  the weekend.

- The first threat of stronger thunderstorm activity is possible
  Saturday afternoon, with the greatest chances across the
  Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A quick look at the big picture, at the start of the short term
period we have a weak ridge over the region here locally while a
deep trough is in place across the West Coast. As we progress
through today, ridging slides east while the deep trough pushes into
the Intermountain West. As this happens, flow aloft over our CWA
becomes southwesterly and this in turn will filter in moisture,
resulting in increased chances of precipitation this afternoon and
again on Saturday. As these two aforementioned features drift east,
a weak shortwave will slide up the backside of the exiting ridge by
Saturday afternoon, this will increase chances of thunderstorms for
locations east of I-25. Across the Nebraska Panhandle, as higher
amounts of low-level moisture filter in with southerly flow, dew
points will soar into the low 40s to near 50. This along with the
energy aloft will help bring the greatest threat of thunderstorm
activity in this portion of our CWA. In addition, with this
increased moisture, fog and/or low clouds may be possible for many
locations east of the I-25 corridor which may limit the thunderstorm
activity, at least at the start. So, this thunderstorm threat will
be conditional based on the cloud cover and possible capping that
forecast soundings indicate earlier in the day Saturday. All this
continues to bring in some uncertainty, but there is the risk and
this will be monitored closely going forward. The main threat with
any thunderstorm activity will be gusty winds and/or hail, stay
tuned...

Lets transition to temperatures and what can we expect heading into
the weekend. With flow aloft becoming southwesterly, this will pump
in warmer temperatures at 700mb, with +4 to +6C today and a bit
warmer Saturday as 700mb temps top out in the +6 to +8C range. So,
what does this mean for highs? Well, today expect highs generally in
the 60s across the region. But, Saturday highs will be a tad warmer
with highs soaring into the 60s and 70s, warmest across the Nebraska
Panhandle where a few locations may hit 80 degrees F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

While the storm track looks to remain active into the early part of
next week, the probabilities for notable moisture continue to
decrease. Picking up on Sunday, we will be behind a compact vort-max
moving out of our area to the northeast. The upper level system will
draw the associated surface trough off to the northeast as well,
which will nudge the low-level moisture plume out of our area and
allow for dry southwest flow to overspread southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. This will increase the chance for critical fire
weather conditions returning on Sunday as 700-mb temperatures climb
back up to around +6C. With a much drier boundary layer and
temperatures fairly close to Saturday`s highs, we will see RH
dipping into critical territory. The wind is a little more
uncertain, but the current model consensus would support critical
wind gusts. These conditions may continue into Monday, but currently
winds look a little weaker and humidity a little higher compared to
Sunday. Both Sunday and Monday will also feature a few isolated to
scattered virga showers (moreso on Monday), but the chance for
wetting rainfall is very low.

Unsettled weather will return Tuesday into Wednesday as the broad
trough over the West Coast progresses inland. Recent model guidance
has begun to coalesce around a solution showing a broad,
disorganized split trough ejecting across the Rockies.
Unfortunately, this has resulted in QPF trending sharply downward
across the entire area. While we should still see some rain and
snow showers across the area, the probability of organized,
widespread stratiform precipitation is less than 10% at this
time. NBM PoPs and QPF have been slow to respond to this change,
and are likely too high as of this writing. More plausible is
the LREF, which has widespread probabilities of 0.25" or more of
rainfall around 10 to 20%, with about a 40% chance for 0.10" or
more. Highs on Tuesday will be generally near seasonal averages
before another warming trend commences on Wednesday. The
departing trough (and/or another upper level low passing to our
north) may help to accelerate wind speeds across the area
Wednesday or Thursday. While the timing is uncertain,
probabilities for high winds returning to our wind prone areas
along I-80 and I-25 climb back to around 50% towards the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

There is a mixture of lower clouds around 3,000ft transiting and
slightly higher clouds around 5,000ft moving through the
panhandle right now. Those clouds should be slowly pushing out
this afternoon. Between 20z and 03z some light pop up showers
look to form around the mountains and push North-Northeast.
Looking at the vertical profiles there is still a dry layer
near the surface that may prevent any precip from hitting the
ground but also gives way to microburst activity. After 03z
the shower activity should be complete and then we look to just
have high clouds transiting through the region.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MM