Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 202343
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
443 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

Forecast concerns deal with blowing snow out near Arlington this
afternoon followed by snow chances into Friday.

Currently...Water vapor imagery showing the low that brought us
the light snow yesterday has moved off into South Dakota this
afternoon. Upstream...we have a few circulations seen on water
vapor. One over central Utah...another over Nevada and one over
Idaho. Finally one last circulation over southern California.

System over Utah this afternoon tracks into Colorado tomorrow.
Most short term guidance showing a fairly widespread high PoP/low
QPF event setting up for Thursday afternoon. Did increase PoPs for
Thursday over guidance. Snow amounts should stay below advisory
criteria...but the NAM is coming in with higher QPF. So mid shift
may want to reevaluate for possible advisory criteria with this
event.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

Another snowy day Friday across the CWA...but for the most
part...a light QPF event is expected. We stay in cyclonic upper
level flow through the long term with glancing blows from fast
moving systems through the weekend into next week. 700mb
temperatures remain cold...generally between -14 to -18C...so no
warm up expected until maybe Monday.

Monday could be windy as we get into zonal flow. Front well north
of the CWA and 700mb temperatures climb to -5C. 700mb winds back
up to 60kts...so that looks to be our next high wind event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 440 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

All terminals looking good right now with just some high overcast
and broken ceilings currently. That will not be the case through
the rest of the period as another active storm system moves into
the area over the next 24 to 36 hours. Expect ceilings to continue
to build tonight and low level stratus development by 12z
tomorrow. Fog and snow showers are expected to develop along the
front range reducing visibility to IF and LIFR conditions through
Thursday afternoon and into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days as we
stay under a trough of low pressure. Below normal temperatures and
periods of light accumulating snow can be expected through the
next several days. Best accumulations in the mountains. Next wind
event appears to be Saturday when wind prone areas of southeast
Wyoming could hit 60 mph on gusts. Elsewhere...wind gusts of 40
mph are expected across southeast Wyoming.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ110.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...AL
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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