Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 261140
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
533 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

Latest GOES-E water vapor imagery shows a region of surface high
pressure across our region as a mid level trough is expected to
dig across the region later this morning through the early
afternoon as a low pressure system down in the southern plains
entering the gulf coast region becomes closed off from the upper
level jet. An embedded shortwave will pass through late this
afternoon across Carbon and Albany Counties bringing a light
chance for showers and possible rumble of thunder, no severe
weather expected across the region today.

Otherwise decent WAA through the region with daytime highs
climbing into the middle 70 degree range east of the Laramie
Range and in the west temps from the middle 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

An approaching cold front in association with a low pressure up
in Saskatchewan will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon
limiting daytime highs in the low to middle 70s across SE WY and
upper 70s and around 80 in NE. Precipitation chances will increase
with decent moisture advection in association for upwards of
about a third of an inch of rain. Soundings are not favorable for
the potential for severe weather with overall CAPE values under
100 J/kg though inverted V soundings imply that some gusty outflow
from showers and thunderstorms may reach up to 40 mph. This is in
agreement with the general thunder outlook from the SPC for
Wednesday.

Ridging high pressure sets in the wake of the cold front with
warmer temperatures and drier conditions setting in Friday through
the weekend. Consensus from previous forecast maintains strong WAA
of 700 mb temps up to +15C with warmest daytime surface temps of
low to middle 90s across the Panhandle Sunday and Monday. Will
need to monitor trends for these high temps as several sites
mainly east of the Laramie Range are teetering close to record
highs for Monday.

With these warmer temps and overnight lows remaining in the 40s
over the weekend especially over the mountains, snowmelt concern
and downstream rise in water levels will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

VFR under a FEW to SCT cloud deck this afternoon and tonight.
Breezy west to northwest winds between 26/15Z and 27/00Z with gusts
to 25 kts, mainly across the southeast Wyoming sites. Slight chance
of a light shower, maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly west
of the Laramie Range; main concern will be microburst wind potential
with showers. Otherwise, variable, light winds and quiet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

Next several days has fire weather concerns low with afternoon
chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as a
low pressure system digs into the region. A ridging pattern sets
in behind for the upcoming weekend with above-normal temperatures
across the region. Dry conditions and low min RH values Saturday
through Monday are the biggest concerns for fire weather impacts
especially across Carbon County with min RH values dropping into
mid teens and gusty winds Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AB
FIRE WEATHER...WM



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