Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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426
FXUS65 KCYS 132010
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
210 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Weather concerns continue to be winds and fire weather through
Monday.

Currently...A warm breezy day ongoing this afternoon. Humidities
across southeast Wyoming in the upper single digits and low
teens. Winds have been quite gusty out west...with gusts in the
mid to upper 30mph range. Temperatures in the upper 50s and low
60s. A weak surface boundary divides high pressure systems over
central Nebraska and western Wyoming/Colorado this afternoon.
Winds have been on the strong side on the west side of this front.

Upper winds remain elevated this evening into Monday as Craig to
Casper 850/700mb height gradients increase to the upper 40mtrs at
850mb and near 40mtrs at 700mb. GFS 700mb winds also increase
this evening increase to 40-45kts. WOuld expect a well mixed
atmosphere out west with another night of very poor humidity
recoveries. Went ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watches to
Warnings for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

A brief reprieve in fire weather conditions Monday night into Tuesday
as a dry cold front moves in from the north. This front will
bring increased dewpoints and cooler temperatures...but no
precipitation expected. This will be short lived as the parent
upper low quickly moves southeast and gusty westerly winds return
Tuesday night into Wednesday. getting very low afternoon
humidities across southeast Wyoming for Wednesday and
Thursday...with GFS 700mb winds back up to 35/40kts. Would expect
more fire headlines for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Some good news though for next weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
showing a pretty potent low pressure system digging into COlorado
Friday and then tracking northeast into Nebraska over next
weekend. A pretty favorable pattern for snow and precip for our
area. Still differences in timing and low placement...but a
pattern change looks to be coming. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

VFR over all terminals through the period.  Winds fairly light over
the Nebraska Panhandle but some gusts around 25 kts expected this
afternoon from KRWL to KCYS.  Winds in that area will diminish
towards 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Dry and windy conditions are going to continue across southeast
Wyoming through much of the upcoming week as low pressure systems
track across Montana. This is a very favorable pattern for winds
across southeast Wyoming. Warm temperatures in the 60s with very
dry air combine with these winds to produce critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and again Monday. We see a little break
Tuesday evening as a cold front moves into the area from the
north. But this front looks dry...with no rain or snow associated
with it. Stronger winds Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a low
pressure system tracking into Idaho. Likely to see critical fire
weather conditions both Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon
humidity falling to 15 percent or less across much of area into
the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ303-304-306-
     309.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for WYZ303>306-
     308-309.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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