770
FXUS63 KDLH 151809
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
109 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon into Tuesday. A
  few strong storms with hail up to the size of pennies and
  wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible this afternoon through
  around sunset.

- Additional showers and non-severe storms with a low pressure
  system Tuesday night into Thursday. Forecast rainfall amounts
  of 0.50 to 1 inch mainly from the Brainerd Lakes east into
  northwest Wisconsin.

- A generally cooler than normal weather pattern persists for
  the rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

High temperatures top out around normal for mid-June this afternoon
in the mid to upper 70s, and slightly cooler immediately near Lake
Superior for the Twin Ports and North Shore. Winds are also fairly
breezy out of the west at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, though
become light this evening and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop
this afternoon in association with daytime heating and shortwave
energy moving in aloft ahead of a surface cold front
approaching the region from southern Manitoba and northwestern
Ontario. Most of these storms should be fairly short duration
and pulsey in nature due to weak effective bulk shear of 15-25
kt. With that said, steep low-level lapse rates, 300-800 J/kg
of MLCAPE, and mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km set up a
parameter space where a few stronger storms could be capable of
up to penny size hail and localized downburst winds of 40- 50
mph. The potential for a few stronger storms lingers through
early evening, but should diminish around sunset. Scattered
showers and a few embedded, general thunderstorms continue
overnight as a surface low pressure gradually passes southeast
through the Northland.

Tuesday:

The surface low pressure will be in NW WI on Tuesday morning and
exit to our southeast Tuesday afternoon/evening, so shower and
isolated non-severe storm activity will also end from NW to SE
Tuesday, with the best precipitation coverage in NW WI associated
with the deformation band on the NW side of the low pressure system
before precipitation comes to an end. The rest of Tuesday will shape
up to be a mix of clouds and sun along with cooler high temperatures
in the mid 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior and slightly
cooler immediately near the lake. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph
are also forecast for daytime Tuesday, but again drop off and become
light towards sunset Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night - Thursday:

By Tuesday night/early Wednesday, an Alberta Clipper-like system is
forecast to skirt along the southern portions of the Northland and
bring a high likelihood (70-100%) for rain showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms to areas along and south of the US Hwy 2
corridor. There will to be an area of drier air to the northern side
of this system, so the gradient in precipitation on the north side
of the system should be sharper. Precipitation starts as early as
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as there will be some drier
low-level air to initially overcome first. Precipitation then
continues throughout Wednesday and ends from west to east
Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, though some cold
air advection/cyclonic flow showers could also develop on an
isolated to widely scattered basis with daytime heating on
Thursday.

As of now, the best rainfall potential would be along and south of
the US Hwy 2 corridor, with the best potential for rainfall
amounts of 0.5-1" being from the Brainerd Lakes east into NW WI.
However, there is still some model spread regarding where the
sharp cutoff in precipitation and rainfall amounts would occur
in far northern MN. Regarding severe weather potential for
Wednesday, the large majority of ensemble member surface low
tracks remain south of the Northland, which would also keep the
effective warm sector and pool of adequate instability for
strong to severe storms south of the Northland. This aligns well
with the area of "Marginal" in the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
also being south of the Northland.

Outside of showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday will be on the
cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday
and mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Thursday. Strong onshore flow on
Wednesday should push the cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s
into the Twin Ports area and into portions of the North Shore. The
strong onshore flow will also likely lead to a high rip current risk
for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will also likely
be needed on Wednesday.

Friday - Next Weekend:

The general mid and upper-level pattern for Friday into this coming
weekend is for ridging to develop in the western CONUS and troughing
across the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast, leaving the Upper
Midwest in a northwest flow pattern with occasional shortwave energy
moving through, though ensemble members are in disagreement in the
timing and amplitude of these features. Given the uncertainty, have
maintained the periodic 10-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms
from the NBM in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. A slight
warming in the 850 mb temperatures next weekend should also push
high temperatures closer to normal (low to upper 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions until later this evening and tonight.
A cumulus field is already developing across much of the area early
this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms beginning to
form across far northern Minnesota. Scattered showers and storms
develop across the remainder of northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin over the next 1-3 hours this afternoon and
persist into the evening. Most storms will not be strong, but a
few could produce up to penny size hail, erratic wind gusts up
to 50 mph, and localized downpours. Some brief MVFR conditions
are possible with any showers or storms that move directly over
a terminal. Around and after sunset, MVFR showers will linger
into Tuesday morning with low stratus and MVFR fog developing.
HYR has the best potential to see IFR ceilings early Tuesday
morning, though there is a 20-30% chance for IFR ceilings at
DLH tonight into early Tuesday morning, as well. Gusty westerly
winds up to 20-25 kt continue through early this evening, become
light out of the west to northwest tonight, and increase out of
the northwest to north with gusts to 15-20 kt late in the
current TAF period daytime Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southwesterly winds at 5 to 15 kt gusting to 20 to 25 kt
persist through early evening, with the strongest gusts near
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where waves up to 2 to 5 ft
will be present and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Gusts
of 20 to 25 kt are also expected from Port Wing into the Outer
Apostle Islands, where a Small Craft Advisory has also been
issued. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and linger for tonight, a few of which could produce
small hail and erratic wind gusts to 30-40 kt this afternoon
through around sunset. A cold front will move through tonight
and turn winds northeasterly briefly into Tuesday morning before
light and variable winds arrive for Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Winds increase out of the northeast on Wednesday,
with gusts up to 20 to 30 kt for the afternoon and evening and
waves building to 2-4 ft, with the strongest winds into the Twin
Ports. This will likely lead to hazardous conditions for small
craft for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters.
There is also a 20% chance for gale-force winds near the Twin
Ports Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Relative humidity has dipped to the upper 20s to 30s (%) across
much of the area early this afternoon along with westerly winds
gusting to 15 to locally 25 mph. Scattered daytime cumulus
clouds are developing and some scattered showers and storms are
also forming in far northern Minnesota nearest to the cold
front. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
across the remainder of the Northland this afternoon into
tonight ahead of the cold front as it works south across the
region. Any location seeing a storm could see brief downpours,
though widespread heavy rain is not expected due to the more
scattered coverage of showers and storms. A few of the storms
this afternoon and evening could become strong, with hail to the
size of pennies, up to 40-50 mph erratic wind gusts, and
occasional lightning. Storm intensity diminishes towards and
after sunset.

Scattered showers and a few storms linger in northwest Wisconsin
on Tuesday Chances for showers and storms linger Tuesday
morning into early afternoon, with drier conditions in northeast
Minnesota. Afternoon min RH values dip to 30-35% in most areas,
though some pockets of 25-30% can`t be ruled out, particularly
in the Brainerd Lakes region. Wind gusts will be northwesterly
at 5 to 15 mph, with daytime gusts of 15 to locally 20 mph. Better
chances for rainfall arrive starting Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning and persist through Wednesday. Rainfall
potential is highest along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor,
with a 50-80% chance for greater than 0.5" of rain from the
Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-
     141-146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein