Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 040540
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Snow has all but ended across northwest Wisconsin and the eastern
portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Will allow the Winter Weather
Advisories expire on time at Midnight. Skies have been slow to
clear tonight, but otherwise forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Update for new 03Z Marine Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Inverted trough axis sliding through the area this afternoon has
produced a wintry mixture of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow
across the area. I expect this to continue to slide east into this
evening, and have expanded the winter weather advisory east and
into the Arrowhead to account for the continued swath of minor ice
accumulations that we are seeing with this band of precipitation.
Have decided to expand the winter weather advisory east a little
farther and also up into the Arrowhead, but kept it until 7 PM. We
will have to monitor the precipitation types carefully to see if
it needs further expansion. As the precipitation and front moves
off to the east, a ridge of high pressure slides into the area for
later tonight, Saturday and Saturday night. Tonight will be on the
cold side with lows ranging from the single digits around
International Falls, to the teens in northwest Wisconsin. Saturday
to recover nicely into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and and will be
followed by a mostly clear night in the teens to mid 20s Saturday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be common on Sunday as high
pressure moves east out of the region. Southerly warm air advection
will bring in some warmer temperatures with highs reaching the low
50s for most places and 40s near Lake Superior. Models suggest a
weak wave passing across the International Border, which could bring
some light rain showers. For now, kept the forecast dry as the GFS
is the only model hinting at rain.

Clouds and rain chances return Monday, especially for central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin where warm air advection and
moisture meet. Generally expecting the p-type to be rain, but
couldn`t rule out some early morning light mixed precip in northern
Minnesota. A brief break in precipitation is possible Monday night,
but an incoming upper level trough with some warm and potentially
unstable air moving in Tuesday morning will promote more rain
chances with the possibility for some embedded thunderstorms. Long-
range models suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE for parts of
northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota with plenty of warm
air advection to promote lift. These CAPE values don`t seem
suggestive for severe weather, but certainly some thunder is
possible.

A cold front will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
model differences persisting with timing. A fairly robust upper
level trough will swing through on Wednesday, and this will bring
continued chances for light rain showers, possibly mixed with some
snowflakes during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. This
general pattern of cool northwest flow with on and off shower
chances will likely persist through the end of the week with highs
generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

The main portion of the weather system has now drifted farther east
just barely clipping eastern MN and north central WI. In it`s wake
we have a low stratus deck following behind bringing MVFR ceilings
across the Northland. Clearing skies will continue overnight with
VFR conditions firmly taking hold of the region for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Winds will be west or northwesterly over western Lake Superior
overnight in the wake of a cold front. Snow will continue to end
from west to east and should be clear of the nearshore waters by
09Z. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are possible near Grand Marais,
but should subside before 09Z. Given the short duration, time of
day, and limited area of these stronger winds, decided against
issuing a Small Craft Advisory. High pressure will build into the
region for Saturday and winds will remain from the west and
northwest around 5 to 15 knots. Winds will back easterly Sunday as
the area of high pressure passes east of the lake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  41  23  49 /  30   0   0   0
INL  10  41  19  49 /  20   0  10   0
BRD  15  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  17  46  22  55 / 100   0   0   0
ASX  20  43  23  53 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JDS
AVIATION...Melde/Britt
MARINE...Huyck


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