Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
609 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Light snow will spread in across central portions of northern
Minnesota late this afternoon into tonight as a weakening cold front
slides in from the west. Synoptically, a trough will dig across the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight. As
the front weakens precipitation chances will decrease across
northern Minnesota late tonight. Snow should come to an end before
Wednesday morning. Snowfall amounts of up to 0.5 inches are possible
from the Brainerd Lakes to the International Falls area. Overnight
lows range from the middle teens to the low 20s.

An area of low pressure will develop across Iowa late tonight and an
inverted trough will extend from the low into the Northland into
Wednesday. This will bring snow chances to northwest Wisconsin. A
wintry mix of freezing drizzle and snow is possible from
approximately the Hayward area to the Phillips area as forecast
soundings show a dry layer aloft from about 5 to 10 kft. Any ice
accumulation is expected to be minimal at this time, but those who
are traveling should exercise caution as roads may be slippery.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s.

Only area of uncertainty in the short term is the potential for
freezing drizzle and snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior
tonight. The ARW/NMM and DLHWRF show precipitation develop due to
southeasterly flow and upslope, but this is not shown in the NAM and
seldom shows up in the lower resolution synoptic scale guidance
(GFS/ECMWF/GEM). Think the high resolution guidance is more
representative based on the environment and southeasterly flow
advecting moisture in off of Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

There is not much in the way of precipitation through the extended
period and the warm December temperatures will continue.

While the overall weather pattern across North America is
progressive, trough that enter the U.S. on the west coast and could
bring us snow dig well into the central U. S. but then becomes
limited in its ability to provide snow to the northland when the the
low becomes cut off well south of our area. There is a chance of
some light snow coming in on Thursday when a upper level trough
moves across the region. This one does close off farther south with
most of the energy directed over the southern and central U. S.  but
not before giving parts of northern MN a small amount of snow. The
best chance of a smattering of snow will be in the northwest area of
the forecast area. Another Canadian low will swing by the far north,
with maybe some very light snow or flurries Saturday night into
Sunday The mild December temperatures will continue with no truly
Arctic air arriving.

On Saturday there is a strong surge of warm air ahead of the
approaching low. The ECMWF is warmest with 8h temps forecast in the
+6 to +8 range with a 40-45 kt jet, giving surface temperatures near
40 degrees F. GFS and the is colder as it brings the cold front in
much faster. The GFS continues to be quite colder into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Poor flying conditions are expected through this TAF period. An
area of IFR/LIFR stratus and fog over KHYR and KDLH as of issuance
time to spread west to affect KHIB and eventually KINL and KBRD as
well by 12z. Ceilings should improve again to MVFR in the 15z-21z
time range. Visibilities, already LIFR at KDLH are also expected
to deteriorate, and should be the lowest in IFR between 09z-18z.
Winds remain light through the TAF period.


Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

No hazardous marine conditions are expected in the next 48 hours.


DLH  21  29  23  31 /  10   0   0  10
INL  19  28  22  31 /  30  10  10  60
BRD  18  28  21  32 /  20   0  10  30
HYR  22  32  24  33 /  20  20   0  10
ASX  21  32  25  34 /  10  10   0  10




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