094
FXUS63 KDLH 141442
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
942 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low
  pressure system.

- Frost may form again tonight in areas in our far east and may
  need a Frost Advisory.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms will move east across the
  Northland Wednesday evening into Thursday, with more chances
  to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Today:

Dry conditions continue today. Classic inverted V soundings across
the area today indicate RHs below 30 percent due to mixing down
very dry air, with some pockets possibly reaching below 25 if
mixing is efficient. In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires
linger aloft according to the HRRR Smoke model, but won`t be
nearly as thick as it was yesterday. Still, added in some 10-20%
sky cover for what smoke is left above the area.

Chances for frost continue tonight with efficient radiational
cooling at the surface in our eastern counties in Wisconsin and
the far northeast portions of the Arrowhead prior to the
arrival of the rain system. Temperatures will once again reach
down into the low to mid 30s in those areas. Another Frost
Advisory may be needed again tonight.

Wednesday system:

An open wave trough dips into the Rockies today and will help
develop a surface low pressure system in the Northern Plains.
This system will move east to the Northland and will bring rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. Wisconsin will
stay dry for most of the day, with conditions similar to today
before the system moves through. The environment for thunderstorms
is not impressive, but with MUCAPE of a up to a hundred from
the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin, a rumble of thunder
or two is not out of the question. High res models seem to pick
up the slow nature of the onset of precipitation, so largely
went with precipitation probabilities from those.

Late week and weekend:

Global models start to diverge at this point, but hint at a
secondary weaker system behind Wednesday`s low. However, timing
of the system is slower for the GFS than the European. Several
more chances for showers and storms will occur over the weekend
and into next week, along with warmer temperatures over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Some lighter
amount of smoke aloft today, but much thinner than yesterday.
Winds remain generally light out of the east to southeast,
though daytime gusts in Duluth could reach to 15-18 knots due to
winds off of Lake Superior.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

We decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the head of the
lake today as winds may creep up to 25 kt with waves up to 3-4
ft this afternoon at times. Adjusted winds/gusts upwards by ~1-3
knots nearly everywhere with lake breezes allowing for some
blustery conditions today. No other changes from the previous
forecast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-
     145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...JDS