Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
702 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Early Arctic airmass over the region this afternoon has supported
widespread flurries and light snow showers due to shallow
convection in response to diurnal heating. Think the snow showers
will become less numerous after 22Z as the sun angle sinks and we
burn through the limited instability. A few bands of flurries
should linger through this evening downstream from the larger
inland lakes, including Upper and Lower Red Lake, and lakes Mille
Lacs, Winnibigoshish, and Leech. Warm air advection aloft ahead of
the next approaching low pressure system tonight will limit
instability by late overnight. Skies are expected to clear
overnight, and with fresh snowpack over the area, look for temps
to fall into the low teens and single digits above zero. Winds
will become strong and gusty from the southwest on Tuesday in
response to the tightening pressure gradient over the Northland.
Channeled vorticity in the mid-levels ahead of an approaching
upper-level jet streak will carry surface low pressure
southeastward across the Canadian Prairies and into northwest
Ontario by Wednesday morning. Falling heights and isentropic
forcing for ascent should be sufficient to bring snow showers to
the Northland Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The most likely
area for precipitation is generally north of US Highway 2 east
along and north of the Iron Range.

After the clipper passes by Wednesday, quieter conditions are
expected for the remainder of the forecast period. High pressure
will gradually propagate eastward across the Prairies and into the
eastern Great Lakes by late Friday night. Temperatures aloft will
trend warmer for the second half of the week, but with the
snowpack across the region, surface temps will be slower to
respond. The 12Z suite of models has carried the next low pressure
system farther north across northern Manitoba and far northern
Ontario, which will keep the Northland dry through the weekend,
with the exception of a few snow showers possible Saturday night.
Went with a dry forecast for now since the trend has been to take
the precip farther north with successive runs. At this point, the
potential for more than an inch of accumulation appears low. Warm
air advection aloft returns early next week, which should push
temps near to slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period as cigs clear
out overnight. Gusty winds are likely to begin tomorrow morning and
continue throughout the day. LLWS is possible tomorrow evening as a
shortwave moves through the area. However, current confidence places
the start time of the LLWS just after 00z tomorrow. If wind shear
does start slightly earlier around 23z, it will most likely be in
BRD and potentially HIB.


Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Surface high pressure over the Northern and Central Plains this
afternoon will drift eastward across the Upper Midwest tonight.
West and southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots are expected through
this evening. The pressure gradient will tighten overnight in
response to an approaching area of low pressure from the Canadian
Prairies. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots by sunrise Tuesday morning. Winds and
gusts will continue to increase through Tuesday and gales are
expected during the afternoon and overnight hours as the surface
low moves from northern Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario by 06Z
Wednesday. Gales to 40 knots are possible from late Tuesday
morning through 12Z Wednesday morning. Conditions will be
hazardous to smaller vessels before the onset of gale conditions.
Small Craft Advisory has been issued and the Gale Watch has been
upgraded to a Gale Warning.


DLH  13  32  25  44 /  10  10  10   0
INL  11  34  26  42 /  10  30  40  20
BRD  13  31  25  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  10  33  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  12  35  27  46 /  10  10  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-

     Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-



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