Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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269 FXUS63 KDLH 012335 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 635 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak low moving out of SD will bring light rain/snow this afternoon across the Brainerd Lakes Region and up through Northern MN tonight. - Slightly above normal temperatures continue through the forecast period. - An active and wet pattern takes hold of the Northland Sunday through Tuesday. This will bring a soaking rain, especially over NW WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Current Conditions/Tonight: Weak high pressure has settled in this afternoon with light winds and cooler temps in the low 40s. Radar reveals some light returns over the Red River Valley moving northeast. The weak low pressure system helping to generate this precipitation will move northeast through the overnight period bringing a light rain/snow mix across the Northland. Very little moisture associated with this system with the overall QPF being less than 0.10" Saturday: The aforementioned showery activity will taper off tomorrow morning as it exits the Arrowhead. Southerly flow returns to the Northland with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 40s and low 50s. Active wet pattern Sunday - Tuesday: The pattern ramps up as we head into Sunday and early next week. Cluster analysis shows outstanding agreement on a deep trough extending down into southern NM. This will lead to an impressive atmospheric river with contributions from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California. The heaviest precipitation will be further to our south across MO but the Northland should still see some action as the system crosses. Most of the uncertainty at this time revolves around how surface features will develop. Both the Euro and GEFS have signals for a low moving across the Canadian Prairies and potentially another low developing across eastern ND or at the very least an inverted trough. In all scenarios this would draw some of the moisture from the plume to our south. Chances for an inch of rain have slightly decreased with this forecast package with the highest chances of 40-60% over NW WI. It`s probably worth noting since we just had our first snowfall of the season that this incoming system will not be supportive of snow. High temps return to above normal through midweek and there is a lack of cold air aloft to produce dendrites. We do however have some potential for some embedded thunderstorms as we build in some MUCAPE values of around 100 J/kg. Can`t fully rule out some stronger storms on Monday across NW WI as bulk shear out ahead of a cold front ramps up. Extended forecast Wednesday - Thursday: Dry air filters in behind the system beginning Tuesday afternoon as showery activity begins to wane over NW WI. Fairly quiet for Wednesday with temperature maintaining their slightly above normal trend with highs in the low 50s. Model discrepancy is high going forward with several indications of some light precipitation chances as a small shortwave works west to east Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Area radars showed echoes from near Pine City north toward KFOZ. A shortwave and warm air advection were aiding in producing the precipitation, which so far as been light rain. We increased chances for light rain/light snow tonight and only light rain/snow amounts are expected. Most were seeing VFR conditions as of early evening but some MVFR ceilings were occurring along portions of the North Shore which will continue. MVFR ceilings will spread into the region from the west, mainly late and will stick around into at least Saturday afternoon over northern Minnesota. For now we left the lower ceilings out of KDLH. There is a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings there and if probabilities increase a period (most likely between 12-18Z) of MVFR will need to be added with later updates. The precipitation will end from southwest to northeast late tonight into late Saturday morning. Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most. Conditions were just shy for including low level wind shear at KBRD/KDLH tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Quiet conditions across Lake Superior this afternoon with light southeast winds. There will be a slight chance of rain tonight and into the morning hours. Stronger winds are not expected to arrive until Sunday afternoon as easterly winds increase. Speeds may cause problems for small vessels. Additionally, a prolonged period of rain showers are expected to impact the Lake beginning Sunday and lingering through Tuesday. Not expecting severe weather at this time but a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Britt