Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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269
FXUS63 KDLH 012335
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak low moving out of SD will bring light rain/snow this afternoon
  across the Brainerd Lakes Region and up through Northern MN
  tonight.

- Slightly above normal temperatures continue through the forecast
  period.

- An active and wet pattern takes hold of the Northland Sunday through
  Tuesday. This will bring a soaking rain, especially over NW
  WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Current Conditions/Tonight:

Weak high pressure has settled in this afternoon with light winds
and cooler temps in the low 40s. Radar reveals some light returns
over the Red River Valley moving northeast. The weak low pressure
system helping to generate this precipitation will move northeast
through the overnight period bringing a light rain/snow mix
across the Northland. Very little moisture associated with this
system with the overall QPF being less than 0.10"

Saturday:

The aforementioned showery activity will taper off tomorrow morning
as it exits the Arrowhead. Southerly flow returns to the
Northland with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 40s
and low 50s.

Active wet pattern Sunday - Tuesday:

The pattern ramps up as we head into Sunday and early next week.
Cluster analysis shows outstanding agreement on a deep trough
extending down into southern NM. This will lead to an impressive
atmospheric river with contributions from both the Gulf of Mexico
and the Gulf of California. The heaviest precipitation will be
further to our south across MO but the Northland should still
see some action as the system crosses. Most of the uncertainty
at this time revolves around how surface features will develop.
Both the Euro and GEFS have signals for a low moving across the
Canadian Prairies and potentially another low developing across
eastern ND or at the very least an inverted trough. In all
scenarios this would draw some of the moisture from the plume to
our south. Chances for an inch of rain have slightly decreased
with this forecast package with the highest chances of 40-60%
over NW WI. It`s probably worth noting since we just had our
first snowfall of the season that this incoming system will not
be supportive of snow. High temps return to above normal through
midweek and there is a lack of cold air aloft to produce
dendrites. We do however have some potential for some embedded
thunderstorms as we build in some MUCAPE values of around 100
J/kg. Can`t fully rule out some stronger storms on Monday across
NW WI as bulk shear out ahead of a cold front ramps up.

Extended forecast Wednesday - Thursday:

Dry air filters in behind the system beginning Tuesday afternoon as
showery activity begins to wane over NW WI. Fairly quiet for
Wednesday with temperature maintaining their slightly above normal
trend with highs in the low 50s. Model discrepancy is high going
forward with several indications of some light precipitation chances
as a small shortwave works west to east Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Area radars showed echoes from near Pine City north toward KFOZ.
A shortwave and warm air advection were aiding in producing the
precipitation, which so far as been light rain. We increased
chances for light rain/light snow tonight and only light
rain/snow amounts are expected. Most were seeing VFR conditions
as of early evening but some MVFR ceilings were occurring along
portions of the North Shore which will continue. MVFR ceilings
will spread into the region from the west, mainly late and will
stick around into at least Saturday afternoon over northern
Minnesota. For now we left the lower ceilings out of KDLH. There
is a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings there and if probabilities
increase a period (most likely between 12-18Z) of MVFR will need
to be added with later updates.

The precipitation will end from southwest to northeast late
tonight into late Saturday morning.

Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most. Conditions were
just shy for including low level wind shear at KBRD/KDLH
tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Quiet conditions across Lake Superior this afternoon with light
southeast winds. There will be a slight chance of rain tonight and
into the morning hours. Stronger winds are not expected to arrive
until Sunday afternoon as easterly winds increase. Speeds may cause
problems for small vessels. Additionally, a prolonged period of
rain showers are expected to impact the Lake beginning Sunday
and lingering through Tuesday. Not expecting severe weather at
this time but a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Britt