Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 250020
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
720 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.AVIATION...

Low pressure moved from Lower MI earlier today well into Ontario by
late afternoon while pulling a cold front through SE Michigan. An
area of broken MVFR ceiling within the frontal zone, and in the
cooler air behind, settled across the terminal corridor late in the
day and lingers into the evening. Gusty NW wind is also slow to
diminish in the gradient trailing the the low pressure center. A
reinforcing cold front washing out over the central Great Lakes
supports additional pockets of clouds that tend to decrease coverage
after midnight in a weakening and less cyclonic NW wind pattern.
High pressure inbound from the Midwest then brings wind backing
toward the west which carries in Lake Michigan activated stratocu by
afternoon. Nearly due west flow favors low end VFR broken ceiling
more toward FNT and MBS while monitoring trends for the PTK to DTW
corridor into Thursday evening.

For DTW...Gusty NW wind settles more consistently below crosswind
threshold during the evening while touching 25 knots at times until
after midnight. Much improved wind conditions develop by sunrise and
continue through Thursday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

DISCUSSION...

Warm sector in advance of approaching cold has remained relatively
cloud free over much of the forecast area this morning into early
afternoon with temperatures responding and climbing into the upper
40s to lower 50s along and south of I-69 with slightly cooler
readings north where clouds have been more persistent. With gusty
west to southwest winds and dew points into the lower to mid 30s,
the slow/steady snow melt that began yesterday has continued.

The aforementioned cold front will progress quickly northwest to
southeast across the region from late afternoon into this evening as
a compact, yet vigorous, shortwave over northern lower Michigan and
northern Lake Huron continues east into Ontario/Quebec tonight.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s pretty rapidly this evening as
cold air advection ensues with winds veering to the northwest. By
early Thursday morning, low temperatures will be back into the teens
to lower 20s.

This colder air mass will remain in place into Friday, but with high
temperatures only settling into the lower to mid 30s Thursday before
rebounding into the upper 30s to around 40 on Friday as the core of
the cold air shifts east/southeast through eastern Canada and only
grazes the central Lake Greats region.

At the same time, upper heights will build Friday into Saturday as
ridging develops downstream of a develop upper trough over the
western CONUS. This will lead to moderating temperatures into the
weekend with highs well into the 40s in most locations both Saturday
and Sunday. There remains a chance of light rain/snow late Friday
into into early Saturday morning as a shortwave of Pacific origin
ejects into the area as upper energy digs into the west coast.

However, that is really the only notable period for measurable
precipitation (and not much at that). The next shortwave to ejects
form the western CONUS in a similar fashion passes largely north of
the forecast area and phases to some extent with a northern stream
component late Sunday into Sunday night. So any precipitation with
this system looks to be limited to a few sprinkles/flurries Sunday
night into early Monday as this system passes and another cold front
settles into the region. The arctic air mass in the wake of this
cold front also looks to shift largely east/southeast across eastern
Canada early next week with the southern edge impact Southeast Lower
Michigan. As such, at this time highs are only expected to settle
back into the 30s Monday/Tuesday.

MARINE...

Deepening low pressure system in place over Ontario and its
attendant cold front has steadily increased wind speeds across the
Great Lakes as wind direction continues to back from the west-
southwest to northwest. A secondary cold front, now in place across
northern Lake Huron, will reinforce northwesterly flow across the
lakes tonight and overnight and will usher in even colder air to the
region. A strong pressure gradient already in place from the
aforementioned low pressure system in conjunction with a building
energetic wind field aloft and increasing instability will allow for
gusts on the order of 30 knots to persist late tonight and into the
early morning hours, mainly confined to northern and central Lake
Huron. Isolated gusts to gales are also possible during this time
frame given the northwest fetch in place. Wind speeds and gust
potential will then quickly drop off throughout Thursday morning as
high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......AM


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