Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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644 FXUS63 KDVN 122329 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 629 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minimal weather impacts expected this weekend, save for some upper-level smoke. - <20% chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening. Better chances for precipitation arrive by midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Little in the way of impactful weather in the short term. Some smoke has subsided to the surface behind a passing front, leading to some haze. Low confidence in surface smoke tomorrow (<15% chance) as an area of high pressure will redirect near-surface flow to the northeast and away from the state. A passing shortwave will deepen across northern Iowa, bringing showers just north of the area Sunday afternoon and evening, but sounding profiles were too dry to prompt the addition of PoPs. A diving wave across the Central Plains will reinforce a cooler airmass for another day with highs remaining in the 80s Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The aforementioned central Plains wave keeps the low-level moisture away from the area for at least the first half of the week, but it will also put the state in northwest flow and open us up to a series of waves from Canada. The LLJ will also reemerge into the Northern Plains later on Monday. It will intersect with a system that is forecasted to impact Minnesota, later dragging its cold front (and the main moisture axis) across Iowa on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front will then stall somewhere near southern Iowa, hence the broad rain and storm chances for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Light winds combined with mainly clear skies and moisture from the ground could result in patchy fog development through sunrise Sunday. It is not clear yet if any of the TAF sites could be impacted. The overall probability right now looks to be around 10 percent for MVFR conditions developing at a TAF site. After 12z/13 winds will swing around to the south or southwest has the high moves into the Ohio Valley. VFR conditions are expected with a possible smoke layer aloft.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 What is NEW... Flood watches for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the English River at Kalona have been converted to flood warnings. A flood watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa. Discussion... Another round of heavy rain fell across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, ad far northeast Missouri Friday afternoon into Friday night with widespread 1 to 4+ inches across the area with 3 to 5 inches falling in the Quad CIties and northwest of Dubuque. This is brought 48 hour rainfall totals in some locations to 5 to 9 inches. These heaviest rains were located on portions of the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, North Skunk, English, Iowa, and the Mississippi River. Despite the possibility of showers this afternoon the forecast is dry through Monday night. Many area rivers are beginning to respond to the heavy rains over the last 48 hours. Due to the abnormally dry conditions across the area many rivers are forecast to stay within bank-full. A flood warning remains in effect for the Iowa River at Marengo as well as a flood watches for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt and the Mississippi River at Gladstone and Burlington. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...08 HYDROLOGY...Cousins