690
FXUS63 KDVN 151209
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
709 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant travel impacts expected tonight into Monday with
  very strong winds and blowing snow leading to blizzard
  conditions. This will likely impact the Monday AM commute.

- There remains a Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of
  5) risk for severe storms today.

- Colder Monday and Tuesday, before warmer temperatures return
  by the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Headline Updates:

Delayed start time of Blizzard Warning in western counties,
added several counties to the High Wind Warning, and expanded
eastern segment of the Blizzard Warning further south and east.

Very complex and dynamic system on track to bring showers and
storms this morning through mid-afternoon followed by sharply
falling temperatures and strengthening winds tonight/early
Monday. Blizzard conditions (at least 3hr duration of >35mph
winds, falling/blowing snow, and 1/4mi vsby) are expected for
most of the forecast area creating hazardous travel lasting
through the Monday AM commute. This combined with freezing
temperatures after rain washes away all of the treatment on
roads, will lead to significant impacts even in areas forecast
to get as little as 2 inches of snow! Consider delaying travel
if at all possible!


Severe Risk

A very strong LLJ (60-70kts) ahead of an 850mb low in southwest
IA combined with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/Kg and steep mid-level
lapse rates, will support a WAA wing of elevated showers and
isolated storms this morning through 10am. These will bring a
marginal severe hail risk with the stronger cores.

Attention then turns to the HSLC setup for early afternoon ahead
of a cold front. Surface dewpoints to increase into the low to
mid 50s south of I-80, with model SBCAPEs progged in the
400-600 J/Kg range across west central and north central IL.
With soundings showing nicely curved hodographs in the low
levels, a tornado or two is not out of the question. It will
definitely be a day to watch the evolution of the instability
surging north. This threat will quickly move to the east during
the afternoon, where STP progs are highest after 21z across
central IL.


High Wind and Blizzard Risk

New 00z guidance continues to come in with a stronger and deeper
surface low tonight, as the open wave becomes negatively tilted
into a closed low right overhead around 06z Monday. The pressure
gradient between the 983mb surface low and 1035mb surface high
in the Plains will yield a very impressive wind field and
forecast soundings show 60kts at top of mixed layer tonight.
For these reasons, I have expanded the High Wind Warning across
northwest IL and slightly further south where the 00z HREF/REFS
probs of 50-60 mph winds are the highest. Can`t rule out an
upgrade in our far southern IL counties either today.

Behind the fropa today, temperatures will quickly fall below
freezing with strong dynamical cooling in the TROWAL changing
all precipitation over to snow. 00z HREF combined probabilities
of at least a half mile vsby and 30mph winds are well over 60%
for this event. In addition, strong omegas in the DGZ
particularly 02-09z tonight to support snowfall rates between
0.5"-1.5"/hr possible. With the strong winds, these dendrites
will become fractured and thereby reducing total snowfall
amounts. SLRs will start out low in the 13:1 to 14:1 and further
increase through the event into the 16 to 17:1 range yielding
3-6 inch snowfall amounts. Again, these lower totals do not mean
that impacts will be lessened at all and should not be messaged
as such. Lastly, NBM/REFS/HREF probs for <0.5 mi vsby have
increased over much of the CWA and for this reason after much
collaboration with neighboring offices, I have expanded the
Blizzard warning further south and east. Further refinements in
time and area may still be needed today and we will continue to
look at observational and model trends to determine this. Even
if you don`t see true blizzard conditions, this storm will
create dangerous travel conditions and should be taken
seriously.

Snow will end from west to east mid-morning Monday, with gusty winds
decreasing a few hours later. However, blowing/drifting snow
may still be an issue going into the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the period.
Another fast moving storms system will move across the area late
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance
of snow to the area. Snowfall amounts will be light with this storm
system.

After a cold start to the week, warm up is forecast to begin across
the area on Wednesday with temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s
by the end of the week.

There is another subtle shortwave in the flow toward the end of the
week but there is disagreement on the timing and location of this
wave and its impact on the area. Currently, the forecast is dry with
the better forcing and moisture to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very active 24-30 hours are expected over our area, as a potent
area of low pressure over northeastern Kansas lifts over our
region later today. Largely VFR conditions as of TAF issuance
will give way to MVFR as some scattered thunderstorms continue
to develop this morning. CID and DBQ are more likely to see
thunderstorms than MLI and BRL, although some isolated storms
have developed over southeastern Iowa. Another round of showers
and storms are possible this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR
conditions. As the area of low pressure moves through late this
morning into the early afternoon, expect a dramatic wind
direction shift from the south and east currently, turning from
the northwest after it passes.

Late this afternoon through Monday morning, the northerly winds
will greatly intensify, with forecast wind gusts of 40 to 50+
knots, along with a transition from rain to snow. Snowfall rates
could reach up to 1"/hour, and initially start out as a wet snow
but become more of a dry, fluffy snow. Once it does, BLSN should
increase, producing visibilities of a 1/2SM or less in blizzard
conditions.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for IAZ040>042-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-
     099.
     High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ054-066-068.
IL...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for ILZ015-024>026.
     Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     ILZ001-002-007-009-015>017-024>026.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for ILZ017-018.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for ILZ018.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     ILZ034-035.
MO...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Cousins/Gross
AVIATION...Schultz