


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
457 FXUS63 KDVN 130543 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1243 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minimal weather impacts expected this weekend, save for some upper-level smoke. - <20% chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening. Better chances for precipitation arrive by midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Little in the way of impactful weather in the short term. Some smoke has subsided to the surface behind a passing front, leading to some haze. Low confidence in surface smoke tomorrow (<15% chance) as an area of high pressure will redirect near-surface flow to the northeast and away from the state. A passing shortwave will deepen across northern Iowa, bringing showers just north of the area Sunday afternoon and evening, but sounding profiles were too dry to prompt the addition of PoPs. A diving wave across the Central Plains will reinforce a cooler airmass for another day with highs remaining in the 80s Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The aforementioned central Plains wave keeps the low-level moisture away from the area for at least the first half of the week, but it will also put the state in northwest flow and open us up to a series of waves from Canada. The LLJ will also re-emerge into the Northern Plains later on Monday. It will intersect with a system that is forecasted to impact Minnesota, later dragging its cold front (and the main moisture axis) across Iowa on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front will then stall somewhere near southern Iowa, hence the broad rain and storm chances for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with SCT to BKN high-level cirrus clouds ongoing at time of TAF issuance. The only exceptions would be at CID and DBQ later tonight as some MVFR fog is possible. Models are pretty spread out on how low visibility reductions will be, with some going as low as IFR (below 2SM). However, both the HREF and NBM probabilities indicate a less than 20 percent chance of IFR reductions, so leaned toward MVFR for now. Light and variable winds become more southwesterly during the daylight hours Sunday, generally around 5 to 10 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 What is NEW... Flood watches for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the English River at Kalona have been converted to flood warnings. A flood watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa. Discussion... Another round of heavy rain fell across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, ad far northeast Missouri Friday afternoon into Friday night with widespread 1 to 4+ inches across the area with 3 to 5 inches falling in the Quad CIties and northwest of Dubuque. This is brought 48 hour rainfall totals in some locations to 5 to 9 inches. These heaviest rains were located on portions of the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, North Skunk, English, Iowa, and the Mississippi River. Despite the possibility of showers this afternoon the forecast is dry through Monday night. Many area rivers are beginning to respond to the heavy rains over the last 48 hours. Due to the abnormally dry conditions across the area many rivers are forecast to stay within bank-full. A flood warning remains in effect for the Iowa River at Marengo as well as a flood watches for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt and the Mississippi River at Gladstone and Burlington. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMX LONG TERM...DMX AVIATION...Schultz HYDROLOGY...Cousins