Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 031751
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1151 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It is highly recommended NOT to burn today due to Critical
  fire weather conditions for grasslands!

- The Red Flag Warning in effect today until 6 PM has been
  expanded to the east to include all counties in the outlook
  area. Critical fire weather conditions are expected with GFDI
  (Grassland Fire Danger Index) values peaking in the extreme
  category.

- Record highs in the mid to upper 70s are forecast today, along
  with strong southerly winds of 20 - 25 mph with gusts around
  40 mph.

- Rain is likely Monday afternoon into Monday night with
  numerous showers and scattered storms anticipated.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Monday afternoon
  and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Overview: Lee-side cyclogenesis has ensued across the Central to
Northern Plains in response to a west-to-east oriented ~150kt
upper jet stretching from Northern California into Colorado. SPC
mesoanalysis had a 992mb surface low located over central
Nebraska into southwest South Dakota with deep layer warm air
advection downstream across the central/southern Plains into the
Midwest. This bout of robust warm air advection will continue
to advect anomalously warm 850mb temperatures over eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois through the day with values peaking
between +14 to +16C, which is 2.5 to 3 standard deviations
above the climatological mean per NAEFS.


Critical Fire Weather Conditions:

Record early March warmth, very dry and cured vegetation, low
relative humidity, and strong southerly winds will lead to
Critical fire weather conditions today with GFDI values in the
extreme category. Please see the Fire Weather section for the
latest information.

Winds and Record Temperatures:

A tight pressure gradient to the southeast of the surface low
and deep diurnal mixing will result in windy conditions
throughout the day, pushing close to Wind Advisory criteria at
times (45 mph gusts). The deep mixing and very warm 850mb temps,
along with plenty of sun, will lead to record high temperatures
this afternoon in the mid/upper 70s for most spots (see the
Climate Section for March 3rd and 4th daily records).

Forecast soundings and 925mb winds depict an impressive ~50kt
SSW low- level jet over the area this morning into the early
afternoon. While the current forecast is for sustained winds of
20 - 25 mph with gusts around 40 mph this morning through the
afternoon, occasional isolated gusts to 45 mph or slightly
higher are possible. Plan to hold off on a Wind Advisory at this
time and message wind impacts with a Special Weather Statement.
However, if the gusts end up hitting 45 mph consistently we
could still go with an advisory -- we`ll be watching it closely.

Winds will quickly subside this evening as the pressure gradient
slackens and diurnal mixing wanes. A weak cold front will then
drop into the area tonight from the northwest which could kick
off a few isolated showers overnight into early Monday morning.
Hi-res models aren`t showing much in the way of QPF, so
thinking most of the area will receive little to no rainfall
through 6 AM Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Monday into Monday night: Gradually filling/weakening low pressure
in Manitoba will send a cold front into the forecast area on Monday.
This front will be slowing down somewhat as it encounters a
southwest flow aloft. PWAT`s increase to near an inch especially
from extreme eastern Iowa and northeast MO into IL. Temperatures
ahead of the front will be pushing into the lower to mid 70s (record
highs possible) so MUCAPE should increase to 500-1000 J/kg which is
more than sufficient to support thunderstorms. The freezing level is
forecast to be around 10000 ft, with steepening low/mid level lapse
rates and sufficient shear. As a result, SPC has a marginal risk for
severe storms (level 1 of 5) for extreme eastern IA, northeast MO
and all of northern/central IL. The main risks look to be isolated
severe hail up to 1 inch and occasional strong/gusty winds perhaps
up to 50-60 mph. The tornado threat appears to be very low at this
time. Late afternoon and into the evening should be the main time-
frame for any severe storms.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cooler but still well above normal
temperatures and dry as we get into more of zonal flow. Highs will
be in the 50s to around 60 with lows in the 30s.

Thursday through Saturday: A rather large/deep trough moves into the
central United States. Global models differ in solutions with regard
to timing/track/intensity so low confidence this far out. As of now
the GFS has a much wetter/slower solution compared to the ECMWF. NBM
has highs in the 50s late in the week then in the 40s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Expect VFR conditions and gusty south winds to start the
period. As a cold front approaches the area this evening, these
gusts will subside with winds becoming more variable to around
10 kts. Late tonight, a renewed push of southeast to southerly
flow will increase low-level moisture and cloud cover, leading
to a period of low-end MVFR ceilings for all terminals. These
conditions should improve late in the period for most terminals
(mainly KBRL/KMLI), though confidence on exact timing of these
improvements remains low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Record to near record highs, ongoing moderate to extreme
drought conditions, abundance of dried and dormant vegetation,
and strong southerly winds (sustained 20 - 25 mph, with gusts
around 40 mph) will lead to Critical fire weather conditions
today. Forecast GFDI values reach the extreme category area-
wide. If a grass fire were to start today, it would quickly
spread out of control and be very dangerous to try to contain.

Confidence is high on the meteorological setup today and
current vegetative conditions across the entire outlook area.
Therefore, decided to expand the Red Flag Warning to the east
and include all of the county warning area. Our latest forecast
is showing slightly lower relative humidity this afternoon,
ranging from near 30% in the west to 40% in the east.
Additionally, sustained winds will be quite strong near 25 mph
with gusts around 40 mph. The bottom line is outdoor burning
should be avoided today because if a grass fire were to start,
it would spread rapidly and exhibit extreme behavior.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 3:
KBRL: 78/1983
KCID: 71/1983
KDBQ: 68/1983
KMLI: 76/1983

March 4:
KBRL: 72/1992
KMLI: 71/1992

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

March 3:
KDBQ: 44/1983
KMLI: 51/1983

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ015-024>026-
     034-035.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Speck
FIRE WEATHER...Speck/Uttech
CLIMATE...Speck/Uttech


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