Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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610 FXUS63 KEAX 230319 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1019 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 211 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2019 Conditions should be relatively quiet through the first half of the forecast period. This afternoon a 850mb boundary resides across the southern CWA. This boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon and evening showers although instability is low. Tonight showers are expected to come to an end however, showers will again be possible across the extreme southern CWA on Friday as this boundary sinks ever so slightly southward. By Friday night, surface high pressure expanding across the Upper Midwest will force the 850mb boundary south and usher in drier air Friday night through Saturday night. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s while dipping into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. The mid range becomes a bit more active. This will come courtesy of a upper level trough that will dig southward from the northern Rockies on Sunday. A lead upper level shortwave out ahead of the main trough will bring the chance for scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday through Monday night, the main upper level trough will swing through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area and again bring the chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another upper level trough is expected to move through the area on Wednesday night forcing yet another cold front through the area and ushering yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front on Thursday highs are only expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1017 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2019 Low clouds will move into the terminals through the night. Expect the cloud bearing layer to be rather thin, so there`s a chance that MVFR conditions will be intermittent rather than constant. That so, expect more time of MVFR stratus around FL020 than VFR time. Same story prevails for Friday afternoon, but expect perhaps more time of VFR than MVFR so went with prevailing MVFR for the afternoon and evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...73 Aviation...Leighton

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