Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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050 FXUS63 KEAX 072230 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 430 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 151 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2019 Primary forecast focus is on temperatures this weekend and light precipitation Sunday into Monday. Key Messages... 1. Temperatures will warm into the lower 50s today and into the mid 50s Sunday, for most of the area. 2. Light rain is expected across portions of eastern Kansas Sunday evening, ahead of an advancing cold front. Through Monday a very light mix of rain and snow and just snow/flurries is possible across portions of the region. No snow accumulations or major impacts to travel are anticipated at this time. 3. Colder temperatures will develop through Monday, as the cold front moves across the area. Lows will be in the teens and twenties into Thursday with highs each day in the 30s. Technical Discussion... Broad 500mb ridging has set up across the region today, with light south winds and mostly clear skies. This will keep the region under the influence of warm air advection through Sunday. Via Water Vapor, the next open 500mb trough is just beginning to push ashore out west. In response, as the ridge over the Midwest flattens, a broad area of isentropic ascent will develop across the mid-Mississippi valley and east-northeast, serving as a focus for precipitation development within the warm sector. Light rain chances will exist through the evening and into the overnight across portions of central and eastern Missouri. Into Monday, a sturdy cold front will finally push out of the northern Plains into far northwestern Missouri through daybreak. The upper trough will remain severely positively tilted, with relatively weak forcing stretched across the central U.S., paired with a rather shallow moisture profile from Bufkit soundings sampled across the Plains. These ingredients continue to suggest rather low chances for light rain and light snow, as the front is moving rather quickly and cold drier air will spread across the area quickly through Monday evening. Therefore, no accumulating snow is anticipated as this front quickly sweeps through Monday. The cold temperatures are the bigger story with this front, as temperatures will drop through the day, Monday. With blustery winds through Tuesday morning, wind chills will dip into the teens and single digits. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will not climb out of the 30s for most, especially those in northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Long range guidance is in general agreement of another upper trough arriving Thursday into Friday. Ahead of this feature, temperatures will rebound into the 40s with rain and very light snow possible. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 429 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2019 VFR tonight but low level moisture will advect into the area by morning with MVFR and possibly even IFR cigs which will hang around most of Sunday. Some models hinting at spotty showers or drizzle on Sunday, but low confidence so did not include in TAF. LLWS possible tonight as low level jet sets up. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Kurtz Aviation...Christensen

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