411
FXUS65 KFGZ 202334
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 PM MST Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds will diminish this evening, with a few
sprinkles or isolated light showers possible over eastern Arizona.
Expect dry, breezy, and mild weather through the rest of the week
with near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very windy across the northland today, particularly
in the corridor from Two Guns to Winslow where gusts in excess of
60mph were recorded this afternoon. Some very light precipitation
is moving through Gila, southern Coconino and Navajo Counties,
but only a hundredth or two have been recorded so far and don`t
expect meaningful accumulations at this time. The Red Flag Warning
and Wind Advisory will stay in effect into this evening.

The axis of the trough responsible for the strong winds and light
showers will pass through Arizona this evening, with decreasing
clouds and lighter winds overnight. With very dry air in place,
the temperatures have the potential to get quite cold tonight (and
Tuesday night) with the light winds, and we`re likely to see
freezing temperatures in a couple of our high-elevation cold
spots.

The rest of the week will be dominated by low-amplitude troughing
or nearly featureless zonal flow. Expect dry, breezy weather with
seasonable temperatures through Friday. We`ll be keeping our eye
on Friday and Saturday where the winds may be strong enough to
bring critical fire weather conditions back into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/00Z through Wednesday 22/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Areas of BLDU, mainly near KINW through 01Z.
ISO SHRA east of a KRQE-KSOW line through 06Z, which may produce
gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise, SW winds 20-30 kts, gusting
35-45 kts through 03Z, then 15-25 kts gusting 20-30 kts through
06Z. Winds become around 10 kts or less after 06Z. Winds increase
10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts after 16Z/Weds.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/00Z through Friday 24/00Z...VFR expected
with SW-W winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-30 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Wednesday...Critical fire
weather conditions will end this evening as strong southwest winds
subside. A few showers are possible this afternoon and evening but
wetting rains are not anticipated. Very dry conditions will resume
tomorrow and Wednesday along with southwest breezes at 10 to 20 mph.
Expect minimum relative humidity values of 5 to 15 percent each
afternoon and decent recoveries overnight.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue with near zero
chance of rain. Southwest winds are forecast each day, sustained at
15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Expect minimum relative
humidity values of 10 to 20 percent each afternoon and decent
recoveries overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
006>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Benji

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff