Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 222052

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
352 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Pleasant weather continues into mid-week with temperatures near or
slightly below normal temperatures and reasonable dewpoints in the
50s. Well amplified ridge centered over the Rockies and trough over
the Great Lakes keeps us in the cooler north-northwest flow aloft.
Meanwhile, broad surface high pressure centered over the region will
keep winds light with prevailing dry conditions. With light winds
overnight and temperatures cooling into the mid to upper 50s, models
hint at the possibility of patchy shallow fog, mainly in the Sioux
and James River valleys. Have added patchy fog mention to the
forecast. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Quieter weather pattern settles into the region, with the broad
upper level ridge slowly drifting eastward while gradually
flattening Tuesday night into Thursday. A weak wave dives southeast
through western South Dakota/western Nebraska Wednesday night,
bringing an isolated threat of thunderstorms to south central South
Dakota. Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend, reaching highs
in the lower 80s to lower 90s by Thursday, however dewpoints only
top out in the low to mid 60s, preventing conditions from feeling
overly muggy.

The best potential for seeing any showers and storms arrives
Thursday evening and Thursday night with the arrival of a stronger
wave attempting to top the ridge in the northern Plains. Another
chance arrives Saturday night, with the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all
showing a wave tracking through the northern and central Plains
around that time frame. The same warmer temperatures continue into
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.




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