925
FXUS64 KFWD 091101
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

As of this update, the front continues to slowly ooze northward,
sending 70+ degree dewpoints further into North Texas. The warm
front will eventually stall up between I-20 and US-380 this
morning. Guidance continues to pick up on initial showers and
storms forming in the Big County/Edwards Plateau area and moving
east/northeast early this afternoon. The Main bulk of activity is
still expected to occur in the later afternoon hours. Very large
hail greater than 3" and damaging winds remain the main hazards
today, with a lower tornado threat. We`ll have to watch through
this evening across Central Texas for an increased wind threat as
storms along the front are able to grow upscale into clusters and
bowing segments. Remember, not everyone will see storms today, but
it would be wise to be on alert and have multiple ways to receive
warnings if a severe storm impacts your location.

Not much change was made to the previous forecast aside from
incorporating observations and new model data, and refining PoPs.
The previous short term forecast discussion below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

The frontal boundary is currently draped across North and Central
Texas as of 11:40 PM, around a Comanche-Lancaster-Mount Pleasant
Line. This can be seen by a northerly wind shift and sharp
dewpoint/temperature gradient in surface observations. Showers and
storms are still attempting to get going along this boundary in
East Texas, but will eventually be snuffed out in the early
overnight hours.

Surface cyclogenesis will occur overnight near the front/dryline
intersection, bringing the western edge of the front a bit northward
and the front oriented more W-E in nature. The front will then stall
near the US-380 corridor late tonight as the upper level
shortwave ejects off to the northeast. the majority of North and
Central Texas will still be in the warm sector of the system,
with 70 degree dewpoints persisting through tomorrow morning. A
deck of low-level stratus will once again impede through the
region, and with the persistent increased moisture, will allow for
the potential for patchy, sometimes dense, fog through the
morning hours.

The upper low will eventually detach from the main longwave
trough, becoming a closed low over the Four Corners on Thursday.
Shortwave disturbances will round the base of the low and move
over North and Central Texas, bringing increased large-scale
forcing for ascent. Storm chances will be on the increase over
the afternoon hours, especially near the focusing areas of the
cold front and dryline. Showers and storms will be possible across
most of the area, with the best chances generally near and south
of US-380 through the afternoon and early evening hours. The
environment will be highly unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE,
>7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and ample deep layer shear. Storms
in this environment will quickly become severe with very large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. While the overall tornado
threat is low, we cannot rule out an isolated tornado due to the
abundant instability, especially within the warm sector where
increased low-level SRH can be found.

The stalled boundary will eventually get a push southward as the
base of the departing main trough moves into the Tennessee Valley
late Thursday night. Any lingering showers and storms will come to
an end as cooler and drier air moves into North and Central Texas.
Expect a cooler day on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s,
which are up to around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 410 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast
Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red
River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the
cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will
create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red
River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge
axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on
Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The
result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs
generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will
be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the far west associated with an upper low situated over
the southern Rockies.

Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night
as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will
initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will
spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as
the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming
stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in
nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat.
However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to
support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday
night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas.

Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday
as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low
exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry
conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night,
followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as
the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have
lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back
within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play,
making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today)
significant opportunity severe weather.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs|/

MVFR to IFR stratus has blanketed the TAF sites as of 5:50AM and
will slowly lift through the rest of the morning. By noon, chances
for storms will be on the increase in D10 and later on ACT, with
likely terminal impacts between 20-23Z. ACT will be impacted a
couple hours later between 00-02Z. With these storms, strong winds
and very large hail are possible. Storms will exit the region as
a front moves through this evening, keeping north winds through
the end of the TAF period. There is a chance for returning MVFR
cigs overnight for ACT, but better chances remain south and have
kept a SCT025 for now until guidance shows better probabilities.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  80  61  79 /  60  20   0   5   0
Waco                85  65  78  61  76 /  30  60   5   5  10
Paris               83  59  78  55  80 /  50  20   0   0   0
Denton              81  59  78  57  79 /  60  20   0   0   0
McKinney            82  60  78  57  79 /  60  20   0   0   0
Dallas              84  63  81  61  80 /  60  30   0   0   0
Terrell             83  61  79  58  78 /  60  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           86  64  81  61  79 /  40  60   0   5   5
Temple              85  66  78  61  77 /  30  60   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       81  59  78  58  77 /  60  20   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$