055
FXUS64 KFWD 140520
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Yesterday`s weak cold front has pushed well southeast of the area
tonight although its associated meager cool/dry advection was
insufficient to scour seasonably high dewpoints from East and
Central Texas. As a result, areas of fog are beginning to develop
where dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s remain, which is
primarily east of I-45 corridor. A small Dense Fog Advisory may
become necessary depending on the longevity of visibility
reductions through the course of the predawn hours.

Following a quick dissipation of any remaining fog shortly after
sunrise, mostly clear and dry weather will prevail the rest of
the day with highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s. Some late
afternoon convective activity is possible west of the CWA as
southerly flow resumes and moisture makes a quick return to the
Big Country, but this activity is not expected to survive into
the western portions of the forecast area this evening. Stronger
southerly flow and warm advection will maintain a warming trend
into Wednesday with highs in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. A
shortwave trough will be approaching the area from the west within
progressive zonal flow aloft, and this will bring an increase in
high cloud cover by late tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
with this feature should hold off until later Wednesday evening
which is addressed in the long term portion of the forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 125 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

Rain-free conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s
across much of the region Wednesday afternoon with a few locations
across the DFW Metroplex and the Big Country exceeding 90 degrees.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along a sharpening
dryline well west of our forecast area late Wednesday
afternoon/evening gradually shifting east toward our western
counties late Wednesday evening/early overnight. We will carry a
low end potential for severe weather primarily west of Highway 281
late Wednesday, however the loss of daytime heating and the
overnight increase in convective inhibition should cause this
activity to weaken as it approaches our forecast area.

Strong warm/moist advection will transport quality low-level
moisture over North and Central Texas by Thursday with persistent
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a mid/upper-level trough
streaming Pacific moisture overhead. A dryline will impinge on
our western zones by Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the north. Increasing synoptic-scale ascent associated with
the approaching shortwave trough and strong theta-E advection
should set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to renewed flooding concerns,
especially across our water-logged Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties where guidance is highlighting 1.7-1.9" PWATs
(approaching daily climatological maxima). This area currently
contains a 30-40% chance of observing an additional 2+" of
rainfall through Friday. The severe weather potential seems a bit
more uncertain and will largely depend upon the ultimate position
of the surface and upper-level features. It is worth noting that
instability and wind shear look to be sufficient for at least a
low end threat for severe weather in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe, but continue to monitor the forecast over the next few
days as we further refine more specific location/timing details.

Model guidance starts to diverge in solutions regarding how long
the rain will stick around beyond Friday, but there is enough of a
signal to carry at least slight chances for rain into the first
half of the weekend. Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest
mid-/upper-level ridging will develop overhead toward the Day 7-9
time frame, possibly bringing us a break in the rain. On the other
hand, this feature would cause temperatures to increase with
upper 80s to mid-90s possible by early next week (5 to 10 degrees
above-average for this time of year).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with a few cirrus being the
extent of sky cover. Patchy fog will be present across parts of
East and Central Texas this morning but will remain well east of
the TAF sites. Light northwest winds of 5-8 kts will return to
southeasterly after 00z this evening where they will remain into
Wednesday.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  87  66  91  69 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                63  85  64  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  20
Paris               56  82  59  87  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
Denton              60  84  62  90  67 /   5   0   5   0  30
McKinney            63  84  62  88  67 /  10   0   0   0  20
Dallas              65  87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0  20
Terrell             60  84  62  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           61  86  65  90  68 /  20   0   0   0  20
Temple              61  87  63  88  67 /  20   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       57  87  64  91  66 /   0   5   0  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$