000
FXUS64 KFWD 202332
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019


.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

A blocking ridge will work its way slowly eastward across the
central part of the CONUS over the next couple of days, providing
generally quiet aviation weather through Friday. At the surface,
northwest winds will become light westerly to light and variable
in a few hours as a high pressure center moves into the region.
Northwest winds around 10 kt will return late Thursday morning as
a secondary push of cool air arrives, with winds dropping off
once again after sunset Thursday evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions can be expected for the duration of the forecast.

30

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/
A weak cold front has pushed through the area and aside from a few
very light showers it has been a rather uneventful weather
feature. With northerly flow becoming established in the wake of
the front through the lower and mid level atmosphere, moisture
will rapidly be scoured out late this afternoon and evening.
Generally clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
it will result in good radiational cooling and cool to cold
temperatures by sunrise. Some of the traditionally colder spots in
the northwestern zones may flirt with the freezing mark and there
could be some frost as well. However, most of the CWA will see
low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunny skies, dry air, and light winds will prevail Thursday and
that should make for a very nice first full day of spring. Due to
the dry air and sunshine, have sided with the warmer MOS guidance
for highs and expect temperatures to reach the 70s with ease for
most locations. Another cool and tranquil night is expected
Thursday night with winds becoming light and switching around to
the southeast.

The next system to impact our weather is currently over California
and it will slowly move toward the region. By Friday southerly
flow should begin in earnest with moisture increasing through the
day. Temperatures will continue to be mild with highs in the low
70s for most locations. Low level cloud cover will probably arrive
into the western zones by late afternoon as an axis of modified
Gulf moisture splays out across the heart of the state.

Model guidance is in good agreement that this approaching upper
level trough will result in two separate rounds of forcing for
ascent that are clearly evident on the PV surfaces. The first is
an intense but brief wave associated with the left exit region of
a 90 kt jet streak that will traverse the area early Saturday
morning. This should result in a round of scattered elevated
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Will show likely
PoPs after midnight across the western zones and spread these
eastward across the CWA by Saturday morning. A second weaker, but
more prolonged round of forcing will arrive Saturday afternoon,
and likely continue to produce mainly elevated scattered showers
and storms. Cloud cover and rainfall activity will keep temperatures
cool and highs for most areas may be stuck in the low to mid 60s.
The lack of insolation will tend to keep low level instability
tempered, but there is modest model agreement that a narrow band
of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE may set up across the far western
zones by late afternoon ahead of a sharpening dry line. Thus it`s
possible any convection in this area could try to become severe as
shear is sufficient for storm organization. Still the limited
instability is the main limiting factor and thus we will advertise
the storm threat on Saturday afternoon/evening as just strong.

For Sunday continued warm and moist advection should bring warmer
temperatures and more surface instability across the entire
region. CAPE will likely exceed 1000 J/kg along and east of a dry
line that will probably set up across the northwestern zones.
Although instability and shear will be sufficient for supercells,
the primary forecast unknown is the degree and extent of upper
level forcing. The lack of forcing may inhibit coverage across
most of the region, but models are advertising subtle height
falls and an approaching upper jet across Oklahoma and the Red
River Valley. This is suggestive that the northern zones may be a
favored region for lift and convective development. We will
advertise the highest pops of 40-60 percent generally across the
northern and northeastern zones Sunday afternoon and night.
Obviously we will be monitoring the severe weather potential with
this round of convection. For the remainder of the area, will
keep PoPs at 20 percent with the idea that limited dynamic support
will keep the area mostly quiet.

A weak cold front will move through Monday morning and we should
see mild and pleasant weather prevail through midweek. Highs will
be in the 60s and 70s with lows back into the 40s.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  75  47  74  54 /   0   0   0   0  50
Waco                40  74  44  74  54 /   0   0   0   0  50
Paris               43  70  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              39  73  43  73  52 /   0   0   0   0  50
McKinney            40  72  43  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  50
Dallas              46  75  47  74  54 /   0   0   0   0  50
Terrell             42  73  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  30
Corsicana           46  73  47  73  52 /   0   0   0   0  30
Temple              43  75  45  74  54 /   0   0   0   0  40
Mineral Wells       37  73  45  74  52 /   0   0   0   5  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/82