Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
458 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

Dry and subsident air under an upper level ridge will keep mostly
clear and warm weather across the region through Sunday.

No significant changes are needed to the forecast at this time.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday Night/

Quiet weather continues across the region with sunny skies and
warm temperatures. The surface high pressure will continue to
shift south the rest of the day with southerly winds returning to
our area. Wind speeds will increase overnight into Sunday as
pressure gradient increases ahead of the next system and a LLJ
develops. Despite the mostly clear skies, these breezy conditions
will keep temperatures from falling much with lows generally in
the 50s. The warming trend continues on Sunday with daytime highs
ranging from the upper 70s across East Texas, low 80s near/along
the I-35 corridor, and mid/upper 80s west of Highway 281. Surface
winds will remain breezy/windy all day, shifting more to the
west/southwest in the afternoon. Occasional gusts between 25-30
mph can be expected during the day. In addition to the warm and
breezy conditions, forecast low humidity (20-30%) will increase
the threat for grass fires in the afternoon, especially west of
I-35. Another warm night is in the forecast Sunday night with lows
in the upper 40s and 50s across North Texas. For Central Texas,
clouds will begin to spread northward overnight keeping the
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
/Monday Onward/

The heat will be turned up on Monday as upper level ridging is
planted overtop the region and south-southwest flow persists.
Temperatures 500mb and 700mb are at least in the 90th climatological
percentile, with 850mb temps soaring to the 99th percentile.
Afternoon highs will peak in the 80s to low 90s. A dryline will
continue to bisect the region over the afternoon, keeping warmest
temperatures generally near and west of I-35. These temperatures are
15-30 degrees above normal for this time of year (we`re normally in
the 60s!). Make sure to stay hydrated if spending time outside on

By Tuesday, the upper ridge will have shifted slightly eastward in
response to a digging shortwave trough. However, Tuesday will still
be quite warm in the 80s region-wide as we`ll still be under the
influence of the ridge. Forecast high temperatures are on track to
tie/break record highs of 85/85 at DFW and ACT, respectively. In
addition to the heat, increasingly dry air west of the dryline and
occasionally breezy winds will promote an elevated fire weather
threat for areas near and west of I-35 both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Avoid outdoor activities that could produce fire starts!

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to move across the
Central Plains on Tuesday, sending a strong cold front through the
region overnight into Wednesday morning. Most will remain dry with
this frontal passage, though isolated showers and storms are
possible after midnight along the front in our northeast counties (E
of I-35, north of I-20). Some storms during this time could become
strong with gusty winds and small hail.

The main impact with this front will be the steep difference in high
temperatures between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday highs will be
quite chilly compared to the previous days, only peaking in the 50s
and 60s. This is a temperature difference of around 15-35 degrees in
24 hours, sending us back to below normal for end of February.
Colder high temperatures for Wednesday was the biggest change to
this forecast package as the base NBM was way too warm compared to
other guidance, and was likely warmly biased. Hence, blended with
colder guidance to account for this.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to continue through
Friday, before a warming trend over the early weekend. Morning
lows on Thursday will range from the low 30s to low 40s, with the
Red River region seeing best chances for freezing temperatures.
Looking deeper into cluster analysis, 44% of total members show a
colder solution, with best probabilities (40-70%) north of I-20
closer to the Red River. The biggest uncertainty on is exact
location of freezing temps and just how far south they make it at
this time. We`ll continue to keep an eye on guidance trends as we
go through the first portion of the week.

Isolated rain chances will return late Wednesday and Thursday with
the passing of another shortwave disturbance. Best chances will be
over the day on Thursday as the shortwave swings across the Southern
Plains. While the GFS was showing this solution this time yesterday,
it has substantially backed off. However, the Euro remains steady.
We`ll continue to promote low (20-30%) chances across the region
over Thursday. Precipitation should move W to E, eventually exiting
the region over Friday morning.



/00Z TAFs/

Limited moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere and high
pressure aloft will keep a mostly clear sky and excellent
visibility across the region through Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds have returned to the region this afternoon and
will remain through Sunday. Sustained wind speeds will range
between 8 and 16 knots along with higher daytime gusts, especially
Sunday afternoon when gusts could reach or slightly exceed 25



Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  82  57  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                51  80  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               51  77  56  84  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              53  81  51  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            52  80  54  87  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              56  82  57  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             50  78  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  79  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              51  80  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       50  85  53  94  64 /   0   0   0   0   0



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