Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
403 FXUS64 KFWD 151107 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The threat for flash flooding will return by mid to late this morning, and continue through the afternoon within the Flood Watch area. - Hot weather conditions are anticipated by the middle of this week, with a return to an unsettled weather pattern this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 No major changes were made compared to the previous forecast. Scattered rain is ongoing across Central Texas this morning with additional showers developing closer to the I-20 corridor. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Texas. Most-likely rainfall amounts will range between 1-3" with isolated 4-5" possible. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 The unsettled weather pattern will continue once again today across North and Central Texas with a renewed threat for flash flooding. As of 2am Monday morning, the heaviest rainfall has shifted south of our region with lingering light to moderate rain from the Brazos Valley to our southeastern counties. This activity is expected to continue to push south and southeast, leaving a mostly dry early morning across the region. As we approach sunrise, a subtle shortwave will emerge from the west and generate another round of precipitation. For North Texas, this will likely be in the form of light to moderate rain showers with isolated rumbles of thunder. Precipitation amounts will remain low, however, a quick burst of light to moderate rain cannot be ruled out. The greatest flooding potential this afternoon will reside across Central Texas, where the Flood Watch is currently in effect. Rain totals today will likely be in the 1-3" range, however, isolated higher amounts cannot be ruled out. Those higher amounts may approach 4-5" inches where persistent and slow moving storms develop. Although rain chances will decrease overnight, we`ll maintain 20-40% rain chances east of I-35 and south of I-20. This is in large part due to the continued influx of moisture from the Gulf as well as weak troughing atop our region. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Rain chances will linger across Central Texas going into Tuesday thanks to an area of low pressure along the Texas coastline advecting plenty of moisture towards our region. Strengthening mid-level flow will enhance lift across the eastern half of our region, leading to 20-50% chance of showers and storms through the day. Although brief heavy rainfall will once again be possible, the highest moisture content will be along the coast where flash flooding will be a more significant weather concern. For our region, any additional heavy rain that occurs may lead to quick ponding but the overall threat for additional flash flooding on Tuesday will remain low. The aforementioned area of low pressure will be positioned just south of our region on Wednesday with widespread precipitation along the Gulf coast. Subsidence associated with the system to our south will likely lead to a precipitation free but hot day. Temperatures will be in the 90s across all of North and Central Texas with the hottest conditions generally from Graham to Breckenridge. Latest guidance shows a 30-40% chance of triple digit heat in the aforementioned area with heat index values ranging from 103-105 degrees. The heat will persist into Thursday with mid to upper 90s once again throughout the region. Similar to Tuesday, heat index values will climb into the 100-105 range. By Thursday night, our tranquil but hot weather will be replaced by rain chances across the region as a cold front approaches from the north. Rain chances will generally be highest along the front. Ample amounts of moisture and an unstable atmosphere may produce a few strong storms capable of strong gusty winds, along with a renewed threat for flooding. Confidence in the forecast significantly decreases as we approach the weekend, however, there is a consensus that lower mid-level heights will continue to generate additional waves of showers and storms. Temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the triple digits. && && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Weather Impacts: -A few rain showers are developing across D10 this morning. - MVFR ceilings in North Texas, IFR in Central Texas. - Scattered TS are expected to develop this afternoon near KACT. - Slight ceiling improvements this afternoon, but MVFR/IFR returns tonight. The bulk of the widespread precipitation this morning remains south of KACT. Light rain showers have developed in/around D10 given abundant moisture remains in place. Additionally, ceilings have bounced from VFR to MVFR in North Texas. For Waco, IFR is ongoing and will likely continue to a few additional hours. By late this morning and early afternoon, additional showers and storms are expected to develop. The main area for thunderstorm development will be south of D10. Given the higher chance of storms, VCTS/TSRA will remain mentioned in the KACT TAF. Thunderstorms today will be efficient rainfall producers with heavy rain leading to reduced visibility. The isolated to scattered rain will persist through the mid afternoon hours before improvements commence areawide. A brief period of precipitation- free and VFR conditions is expected as MVFR and IFR returns tonight. Winds will remain out of the northeast today with a gradual turning to southeasterly overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 72 91 75 / 30 10 10 0 Waco 81 72 87 73 / 70 20 20 0 Paris 80 68 87 72 / 30 10 10 0 Denton 82 69 89 73 / 20 10 0 0 McKinney 81 70 89 74 / 30 10 10 0 Dallas 84 72 91 75 / 30 10 10 0 Terrell 82 70 89 72 / 40 10 10 0 Corsicana 83 73 88 74 / 80 20 20 0 Temple 81 72 86 73 / 90 20 30 0 Mineral Wells 83 68 90 71 / 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174- 175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez