231
FXUS64 KFWD 200544
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms, some severe, will continue along and south of the
  Red River through the next several hours. The main threats will
  include large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to
  near normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon
  highs in the low to the mid 80s.

- There will be daily chances (20-30%) for afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms beginning Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Additional thunderstorms have developed along the remnants of the
dryline with a zone of convergence across western North Texas.
This area will be watched closely over the next several hours as
convection currently along the Red River and even in portions of
the Metroplex moves east through the late overnight and early
morning hours. Plenty of instability remains in place tonight, so
we will need to watch for the potential for isolated severe
weather. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats
with any activity through about 2-3 AM before pushing to the east.

The upper level trough will lift to the northeast, with a cold
front pushing into the region through Tuesday morning as it
departs the region. This will bring an end to rain chances through
Tuesday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s briefly returning to
all of North Texas. A few locations across our southern Central
Texas counties may still reach 90 though.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 139 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025/
Update:
The brief reprieve from the daily storm chances will continue
into Wednesday, with additional storm chances arriving Thursday.
Given a lack of concentrated forcing for ascent, confidence in
thunderstorm timing and location each afternoon will remain low.
Additional details can be found in the discussion below.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday through Sunday/

...Wednesday...

Dry post-frontal air will be in place during the day on Wednesday,
as a high pressure to the north funnels a slightly cooler and
stable airmass into the region. This will keep skies clear and
conditions mild, with highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s.


...Thursday through Sunday...

Though upper-level ridging will build into the central CONUS for
the end of the week into this upcoming weekend, surface high
pressure will shift to the east/northeast, allowing for southerly
flow to bring Gulf moisture back into the region. This will allow
dew points to increase again into the upper 60s and 70s, and highs
to rebound into the upper 80s and low 90s. In the mid-levels,
parcel trajectories will be more off the Gulf as opposed to the
Mexican Plateau. This will keep warmer air aloft and the EML to
the west, resulting in a weaker capping inversion and weak mid-
level lapse rates. On the dynamics front, medium range guidance is
beginning to resolve weak disturbances that will slowly traverse
the southern Plains during this time frame. This set up will favor
daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms (20 to 30%
chance).

While the details are unclear at this time range, the
general trend favors slightly higher coverage near the Red River
(less SBCIN) and east Texas (more surface moisture). Furthermore,
SBCAPE may increase to the 2000-3000 J/kg range owing to a very
moist boundary layer. In this environment, a storm or two may
briefly be capable of large hail or damaging winds, but in the
absence of strong shear or any meaningful synoptic features,
organized severe weather appears unlikely at this time. This also
means that favored areas for thunderstorm development will
partially depend on activity the day prior, as remnant outflow
boundaries, though hard to predict their location far in advance,
can have important implications on where storms develop later the
next day. Thermodynamically driven convection like this will also
be tied to the diurnal cycle, with convection developing during
the afternoon hours, and quickly dissipating after sunset.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...Quick VCTS/TSRA tonight, FROPA through the morning.

A severe thunderstorm quickly developed along a remnant dryline
overnight to the west of the D10. This activity will continue to
push east over the next hour or so. Additional development is
possible through the northeast over the next several hours as
well, which may prolong impacts to the Bonham cornerpost. A cold
front will push through the region, making it through the D10
around 12z. There is a low to medium chance that MVFR ceilings
are able to make it north toward DFW/DAL, but the timing of the
front may keep this window quite brief at the very least.
Southerly flow will return toward the end of the period.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  89  67  86  66 /   0   0   5  20  20
Waco                59  88  67  91  66 /   0   0   0  20  10
Paris               58  85  61  82  61 /   0   0   0  20  20
Denton              57  89  62  84  61 /   0   0   5  20  20
McKinney            59  88  63  84  63 /   0   0   5  20  20
Dallas              63  88  66  86  66 /   0   0   5  20  20
Terrell             59  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   5  20  20
Corsicana           62  90  67  90  68 /   0   0   0  20  10
Temple              59  91  69  93  66 /   0   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       57  90  64  89  63 /   0   0   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-130>134-144-145.

&&

$$