000
FXUS64 KFWD 172320
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
620 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight Through Monday/

The surface high responsible for the enjoyable weather as of late
will gradually transition eastward through tomorrow, however the
short term will continue remain rain-free and pleasant. Overnight
lows will fall to the 40s across most of the area and into the
low 50s across the Metroplex.

A few high clouds are possible again Monday afternoon from an
additional push of upper level Pacific moisture over the area.
Southerly surface winds will increase slightly to around 10 kts
due to a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to a
strengthening low off of the Rockies. Only slightly warmer
temperatures are expected to start off the work week, with highs
reaching the mid 70s area-wide.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/

Warm and moist advection will ramp up Monday night as height falls
start to overspread the Plains. Stronger advection will be in
response to a deepening leeside low that will also tighten the
local pressure gradient and support a couple breezy days through
the early/middle parts of the week.

A deep low pressure system will eject east of the Rockies Tuesday
night into Wednesday and send an attendant cold front south. We
expect FROPA to occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but
should stall over South Texas and the Big Country as the upper
support races east quickly. The out-paced upper support will also
drastically weaken the inflow and moisture flux into/overtop of
the front, keeping it a mostly dry frontal passage. A few isolated
showers are possible along the boundary where ascent saturates a
few parcels underneath a capping inversion aloft, but little
measurable rainfall is forecast at this time. A dry and pleasant
day is expected Thursday and Friday, with return flow returning by
the weekend. We will have to keep an eye on where the front stalls
Thursday as there is a chance it stalls over Central Texas. This
would allow for additional precip chances late in the week for our
Central Texas counties.

An interesting artifact in the far extended forecast is some "QPF
blobs" the globals have been flashing across the Southern Plains
Friday. The guidance is suggesting a shortwave trough will move
overtop of the cool and dry airmass in the wake of Thursday`s
front and create rain showers ahead of it. We have decided to
remove the suggested wording of rain showers at this time. The
global`s QPF and the NBM`s PoPs do not account for sub-cloud
evaporation since they treat rainfall as an instantaneous descent
from the cloud to the ground...which is not the case, particularly
when precip is rooted overtop of a dry sub-cloud layer. However,
these situations do typically favor virga with precip echos
showing on radar at long ranges but not much more than a few
sprinkles reaching the surface. At this range, this part of the
forecast will likely change, but it`s a good conversation point
with an otherwise quiet forecast.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue, with high clouds clearing out
overnight. Southerly winds are expected through the period
increasing to around 10 kts Monday afternoon.

Gordon

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  76  58  79  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                46  74  54  79  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               47  74  51  77  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              43  75  53  79  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            46  75  54  79  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  76  58  80  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  76  53  79  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           49  76  55  79  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              45  75  55  79  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       44  74  54  79  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$