000
FXUS64 KFWD 021818
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1218 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

Surface high pressure is now migrating across the region, leading
to fairly tranquil weather conditions. Winds are light and
variable, and will likely continue that way through the evening.
As the surface high migrates eastward, winds are likely to return
out of the south tonight.

Overnight, temperatures can be expected to fall to the mid to
upper 30s as some isolated high clouds try to move in from the
west.

The influence of the surface high will be sufficiently strong on
Wednesday to lead to yet another fairly calm weather day. Winds
are expected to be out of the south/southwest, leading to slightly
warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs tomorrow will likely climb
into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/
/Wednesday through The Weekend/

Generally tranquil conditions are anticipated across North and
Central Texas through the long term period. There will be a quick
opportunity for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms along the
Red River and east of I-35 Thursday and Friday. Outside of a
brief cool down for some on Friday and Saturday, temperatures will
largely be above normal for early March.

Wednesday morning will feature cool and possibly foggy conditions
for the area thanks to clear skies, light winds and recent
rainfall. At this juncture, we`ll abstain from mentioning fog in
the worded forecast, but depending on higher resolution model
simulations today, it may be prudent to include patchy fog across
East Texas. During the afternoon hours, a slight westerly
component to the southerly breezes may be sufficient to nudge
temperatures into the mid 70s near/west of the U.S. HWY 281
corridor. Elsewhere, full insolation coupled with modest southerly
flow will equate to daytime highs in the low to mid 60s. While
southerly breezes will diminish in magnitude through most of the
night Wednesday into early Thursday, speeds may increase around
daybreak and upset what would otherwise be another ideal
radiational cooling night. Overnight lows are forecast to fall
into the 40s for most areas.

Winds will increase through the day on Thursday as will mid/upper
level cloud cover across the Red River in advance of our next
upper system currently churning just offshore California. Some
lower level clouds may stream in across East Texas as well. While
southerly winds typically draw a maritime airmass northward into
our region, moisture advection will only yield dew points in the
40s. With freeze cured fuels in abundance and winds increasing
into the 15 to 20 mph range, there will be a potential for
increased fire spread. Outdoor burning will need to be monitored
as dormant winter vegetation is cured and available.

Rain chances increase late Thursday into early Friday and the
latest forecast package has trimmed PoPs just a tad below the
the latest blended guidance. As mentioned above, moisture
advection looks meager and forecast soundings indicate a
pronounced layer of dry air below mid/upper level saturation
implying most of what falls may be in the form of virga. PoPs
have been capped at around 45-50% (though this may be generous),
with the best opportunity for rain being across extreme Northeast
Texas. Locations west of I-35 and south of I-20 will likely miss
out on this potential for wetting rains and the fire weather
threat may be heightened post-FROPA on Friday...more on this
shortly. Forecast soundings do indicate lapse rates in excess of
7 C/km and as a result, the mention of thunder has been retained
in the grids late Thursday into Friday where high-based
thunderstorms may develop.

As rain chances shift east of the area, a front will slice
southward through our region during the daylight hours on Friday.
While cold air advection will take place for most areas resulting
in highs in the 60s, locations west of I-45 and south of I-20
will likely be the recipient of compressional warming and thus
daytime highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds of near 25 mph will
once again enhance the fire weather threat and given the abundance
of 1 and 10 hour fuels, we could see an increase in fire
activity. Moreover, deterministic NBM dew point temperatures
appear a tad inflated for a Pacific frontal passage and I`ve
hedged toward the NBM 10th percentile/CONSMOS values for the Td
grids on Friday. For now, we`ll monitor conditions, but it`s
possible that Grassland Fire Danger statements will be needed at
least on Friday.

Saturday will feature cooler conditions area-wide with highs in
the mid 60s...about 5-7 degrees below normal. Fortunately, it
appears that winds will abate some and we`ll warm quickly back up
into the 70s on Sunday. All in all, the weekend is shaping up to
be quite pleasant for any socially distanced outdoor activities
thanks to shortwave ridging overhead keeping rain chances near
zero. Next week promises much of the same temperature wise with
balmy overnight lows and mild daytime highs. I have trended
temperatures above NBM guidance and closer to the model consensus
which typically performs better during breezy/more humid
overnight conditions. As longwave troughing develops to the west,
the surface pressure gradient will tighten. The end result will be
increased south winds. Moisture advection may be more promising
with next week`s southerly flow regime and that could promote a
greater coverage of wetting rains (or at least the potential).
While unlikely to be a widespread rain event, this may serve to at
least keep more significant fire weather potential in check.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...none

Surface high pressure is moving across the region today, causing
North Texas` winds to remain light and variable. Clear skies are
expected to continue through the night. As the surface high
migrates eastward, expect southerly winds to become established
early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds Thursday will likely remain
under 5 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  69  45  72  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                36  69  42  71  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               34  66  40  68  48 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              38  70  43  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            36  69  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              40  70  46  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             35  68  41  72  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           36  67  44  72  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              36  69  43  70  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       35  72  44  73  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$