Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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210
FXUS64 KFWD 131034
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of heavy rain could result in Flash Flooding through
  Sunday evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of
  North and Central Texas through 7 PM.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The potential for flash flooding will continue across North and
Central Texas today. There are two main areas of convection
ongoing this morning: (1) a thunderstorm complex in southeast
Oklahoma and (2) the remnants of the complex of storms that moved
through Lampasas earlier. At it`s peak, rain rates in the Central
Texas complex reached 2 to 4 inches/hr. This, combined with slow
storm motions, led to very rapid accumulations with a few gauges
reporting rain totals of 4 to 8 inches over the last 6 hours. The
increased soil saturation from this morning`s rainfall has
significantly reduced the infiltration capacity of the soil and
thus increased the potential for rapid surface runoff with any
additional rainfall. Translation: Flood issues will emerge VERY
quickly with any additional rain that falls. This means that even
hourly rainfall rates as low as 0.25-0.75"/hr can and will pose a
risk for flooding. The main change made with this morning`s
forecast update has been to increase PoPs primarily across Central
Texas through this afternoon as the embedded vorticity maxima
continues to slowly pivot across the region.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and
Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly
eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max
across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a
stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated
between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast
U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi-
stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support
deep-layer ascent across a saturated column.

This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern
through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early
Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and
Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0
inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These
values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic
guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies.

The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across
western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton
counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to
gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the
remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low-
level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow
aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the
early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will
support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of
the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized.

Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training
convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible.
Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and
Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM
Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the
DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco.
The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the
expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young,
Jack, Montague and Cooke.

The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right
now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early
evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However,
as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we
could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20
corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern
North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper
trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this
afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and
differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to
be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity
favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized
training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to
promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into
the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though
isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances
of small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/
/Monday through Saturday/

Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By
Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin
to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley,
leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our
forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the
beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July
pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is
now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering
influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be
located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this
forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances
while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages.

Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index
values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the
100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble
guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control
through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness
aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms
to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next
weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise,
a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end
of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Rain and occasional embedded thunderstorms will continue at KACT
for a few more hours before dissipating mid to late morning.
Conditions have been fairly quiet across the Metroplex, though a
few rain showers have developed in the past hour. Will indicate
VCSH for this morning, but hold off on TS until the atmosphere
destabilizes late this afternoon. Even then, convective coverage
may remain isolated, so will just include a few hours of VCTS at
all areas from 23Z until 03Z. One additional round of convection
will then occur on Monday prior to the upper level system moving
away, but it would be just beyond this forecast cycle. Otherwise,
sporadic MVFR cigs this morning should scatter by midday.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested today within the
Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  73  90  75  93 /  50  30  30   5  10
Waco                88  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  20   5   5
Paris               85  70  88  72  91 /  70  40  40  10  20
Denton              88  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  40   5  20
McKinney            87  73  89  74  93 /  50  40  40   5  10
Dallas              88  73  90  75  94 /  50  30  30   5  10
Terrell             88  73  89  73  93 /  60  40  30   5  10
Corsicana           90  74  92  75  94 /  60  30  30   5  10
Temple              90  72  91  73  92 /  60  30  20   5  10
Mineral Wells       88  71  91  73  93 /  40  30  40  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093-094-102>104-115>119-
129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

$$