Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 160943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
243 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018


Surface low will track across Northeast Montana this morning on a
Whitewater, Wolf Point, and Sidney track. Precipitation early this
morning should be mostly snow along and north of the low track and
mostly rain to the south. As soon as the low passes which will be
around 12z (5 am MST) along the Canadian Border, a strong cold
front will drop south and reach the southern end of the forecast
area around 16z or 17z (9 or 10 am MST). Strong cold air advection
behind the cold front will change precipitation to all snow in all
areas by late morning. The heaviest precipitation and snow this
morning will be along and north of the surface low track. Snow
amounts are expected to be between 3 and 6 inches in northeast
part of the forecast area. Then, a band of snow is expected behind
the cold front between late morning and this afternoon which will
cover most of the forecast area. There is a potential for around 2
inches of snow with this snow band in most areas today along with
north winds 20 to 35 mph which could blow any snow that falls.
Will expend the Winter Weather Advisory to include most of the
remainder of the forecast area. Only Prairie County will be
excluded as snow amounts are expected to be less than an inch
there. The cold air advection will result in falling temperatures
today with most locations in the teens this afternoon.

High pressure builds into the area tonight ending the snow and
diminishing the winds. Lows will be in the single digits in most
areas. Saturday will be dry and cold with the surface high and
upper trough.

Upper trough moves to the east on Sunday and a warmer NW flow
aloft will warm temperatures back to above normal by Monday.

Upper ridge moves into the area on Tuesday and remains over the
area on Wednesday with warm and dry weather.

A shortwave trough flattens the ridge on Thursday with a dry cold
front and somewhat cooler temperatures on Friday. Forrester


FLIGHT CAT: a mix of MVFR and IFR today and this evening. MVFR and
VFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: A storm system will move through Northeast Montana
today with a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions in snow. Blowing snow
may cause some problems for clearing of area runways as well.
Low clouds will linger this evening after the snow diminishes. Skies
will clear late tonight.

WIND: light and variable through 12Z becoming north behind a cold
front and increasing to 15 to 25 knots sustained gusting 35 knots
by the afternoon. Calming to less than 10 kts in the late evening.


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
Daniels...Eastern Roosevelt...Northern Phillips...Northern
Valley...Richland...Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...


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