Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 241012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
412 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018


A persistent southwest flow aloft is in control across the entire
region. Subtle embedded disturbances are expected to bring a few
periods of scattered showers of wintry mix to portions of northeast

Aside from a few pockets of dense freezing fog this morning, A
lingering glancing shot of mixed precipitation is expected to move
north through Blaine and Phillips county with little if any

Later today through late tonight, a more organized short-wave
trough will set off more organized rain and snow showers with some
light accumulations possible as they move from SW to NE through
our area.

Sunday through Tuesday morning, the main upper-level trough axis
moves through the region, but most of the associated shower
activity will be confined to southeastern Montana.

Late Tuesday night through Friday night NW flow aloft returns
thanks to a building ridge of high pressure from the west with
some scattered chances for showers embedded within the flow.

For temperatures overall, every night will see a re-freeze and
each day will see a thaw as Spring tries to get a foot hold in the
area.                BMickelson



Expected Flight Category: Airport minimum for KGGW in dense
freezing fog. IFR/MVFR for KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV.

Synopsis: NW flow aloft continues to direct a few lingering
showers generally from SW to NE across the region. More of this
activity will impact the TAF sites later this afternoon through
tonight with vicinity showers.

Winds: Light and variable elsewhere, but KGGW is hanging on to
some locally enhanced ESE winds up to 15 kts this morning.




Flood watches remain in effect for the Yellowstone and Musselshell
Rivers across northeast Montana for the potential for ice jam
flooding. With recent warming temperatures and some water loading
due to precipitation across the region, further rotting and
breakup of the river ice continues, and the reported ice jams
along each river continue to move downstream and jams along the
tributaries are beginning to spill into the main stem rivers.

In addition, a Flood Warning continues today for the Musselshell
River from the Garfield and Petroleum county lines north to
Crooked Creek Recreation Area. Ice jamming is occurring at the
outlets of multiple tributaries along the length of the
Musselshell between Petroleum and Garfield Counties and could lead
to continued flooding issues along the river.

A small stream flood advisory has been issued for Petroleum
County, as many of the small streams and poor drainage areas are
beginning to fill up with water, mainly due to snowmelt issues.

A flood advisory was extended through early Sunday morning for
adjacent areas along the Yellowstone River from the Interstate 94
Bridge to Deer Creek for the threat of minor flooding in low-
lying fields due to sudden periods of possible ice jamming. A
sudden ice jam late Friday night brought the river level there up
to 59 feet - nearly moderate flood stage - but quickly receded
back down below action stage less than 30 minutes later. Officials
there report that particular jam now downstream of Glendive.

The Poplar River near International boundary in Daniels Country
continues to hold in action stage today. This has been steadily
rising for several days now, but current rise looks likes ice jam

To monitor river stage readings, go to our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) page at then
click on "Rivers and Lakes" then "River Observations". Data for
this page are provided by the USGS.


Flood Watch through Monday morning for Dawson...Garfield...

Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT today for Central and Southern


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