Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 210157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
757 PM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018


Evening Update...

Precipitation is winding down this evening as the trough continues
to exit the area. Most of this has been in the form of rain,
although a few snow showers are mixed in across portions of
Daniels and Sheridan counties. This will continue throughout the
rest of the evening, although no snow accumulation beyond maybe a
dusting is expected. After the precipitation leaves the area,
expect some patchy frost across much of northeast Montana after
midnight, as well as some patchy fog Friday morning.

Bumped overnight lows down a degree or two, matching up with
near-term guidance. Lows are expected to make it down to or below
freezing across the area, with the possible exception of portions
of Petroleum County. Otherwise, the only change to the inherited
forecast was to add the aforementioned patchy frost.  Hickford
Previous Discussion...

The upper-level, short-wave trough that brought rain to NE MT
moves into the Dakotas tonight. This will be followed by high
pressure, ending the rain locally. Therefore, rain will taper off
from the southwest tonight, likely ending by midnight. Low clouds
will linger tonight, which might moderate the expected cold
temperatures, some of which might fall into the lower 30s.

A warm front nudges into southern Saskatchewan, which will
generate more rain to our north tomorrow. But with the return of
sunshine and increasing heights, temperatures will rise into the
50s & 60s Friday. These temperatures will still run around 10F
degrees cooler than normal.  Templer

Previous Extended Discussion:
Friday night and Saturday will offer dry but continued cool
weather conditions as an upper ridge builds across the region.
Expect that the next upper level disturbance will approach on
Sunday with a chance for showers across most of northeast Montana.
At this time, it does look as though there will be more limited
moisture available with this second system, but some places could
pick up on either side of 0.10" QPF where the steadiest showers

Following the weekend, the 00z models offer their usual growing
differences at larger time scales. Thus, trended the forecast
toward consensus blends for now. Maliawco



Flight Category: MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected to
prevail until midnight or shortly after, then becoming VFR at
most of the TAF sites. IFR and MVFR CIGS may linger throughout
the morning at KSDY.

Discussion: Rain with possibly a few snowflakes mixed in will
taper off by midnight or shortly after. Associated low ceilings
and reduced visibility could impact flight conditions. Patchy fog
could also lead to reduced visibility Friday morning.

Wind: North to northeast winds at 5-15 kts will become light and
variable by midnight, then switch to the south to southeast at 10
to 15 kts Friday.





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