643
FXUS63 KGID 151705
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1205 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will
  linger across the area today. This afternoon-early evening,
  there will be the potential for some of these storms to be
  strong to severe, mainly along and southeast of a line from
  Fullerton to Beaver City and into north central Kansas. Hail
  near the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH would be
  the primary hazards.

- Dry conditions return to the forecast for Thursday through the
  first half of the weekend...with highs climbing into the mid
  70s to low 80s by Fri-Sat.

- Sunday on through the first half of the work week will bring
  the potential for a more active upper level pattern and
  periodic precipitation chances to the region. Though
  confidence suffers due to some model differences in
  timing/track, the current overall best chances for
  preciptiation look to come Monday evening-Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently through tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue
to make their way east across the region this morning, with
the most organized area being across north central KS. In the
the upper levels, flow across the Plains is west-southwesterly,
set up between a ridge axis extending northeastward out of TX
and a vort max sliding east across WY. This activity, driven by
a passing more subtle disturbance and increased lift along the
nose of a 30-35kt low level jet, is expected to continue
gradually sliding east across the area through the early morning
hours. With MUCAPE around a few hundred j/kg, not expecting
this activity to be severe. At the surface, the pattern over the
forecast area remains week, resulting in light/variable winds,
while a cold front/trough axis not far off to our west. With
plentiful cloud cover in place, even with the light winds, temps
remain mild, with 3AM obs sitting in the mid 50s- low 60s.

For the rest of today into tonight, models show the potential
for at least isolated activity sticking around pretty much all
day. This first batch of more organized activity pushes off to
the east and wanes as the low level jet diminishes...but that
disturbance currently over WY will be working its way into the
region as the day passes. The surface pattern has some
uncertainty...and depending on the model, could have
thunderstorms developing along a couple of boundaries. The first
is the one just WNW of the forecast area, although weak, models
show it continuing to push into the area...and perhaps already
around midday-early afternoon could have some storms developing
along it. Later in the afternoon-evening, the main upper level
wave moves in, bringing along another surface frontal
boundary...which could be the focus for additional storms. With
plenty of cloud cover sticking around, and the potential for
isolated/scattered activity through the day...hard to have a ton
of confidence in temperatures and the amount of instability
that can develop through the day, but models are in decent
agreement showing highs in the low-mid 70s, and MUCAPE values of
around 1000-1500 j/kg not out of the question. That instability
along with deeper layer shear still around 35kts will keep the
potential of some storms being strong to severe in play...and
the central-southeastern two- thirds of the forecast area are
included in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Wind gusts around
60 MPH/hail near quarter size look to be the primary concerns.

Once we get to around mid-evening, most models show chances for
showers/storms tapering off from NW to SE...some showing it
being very quick (like chances end by midnight), others are a
little slower. Trended forecast PoPs to come to an end quicker
(ending by 12Z Thursday), not out of the question the day crew
will be able to further that trend. Overnight lows are forecast
to drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday and Friday...

Dried out the forecast for the daytime hours on Thursday, and
Friday continues to be dry. Models are in good agreement
showing west-northwesterly flow in place aloft over the region
Thursday morning, driven by the departing wave from today, along
with another system moving into the Southern Plains and another
working toward the Pac NW coast. Depending on the model, that
Southern Plains disturbance may shift northeast on Friday closer
to the forecast area...but most agree with keeping us dry.
Expecting diminishing sky cover on Thursday to mostly clear-
partly cloudy, mostly sunny skies possible on Friday if that
system stays far enough to our south. The northwesterly winds
building in behind today`s frontal passage linger into tonight
and Thursday morning...turning more variable then eventually
more southerly through the rest of the day, but speeds remain
light. Winds remain southerly for Friday, increasing in speed to
closer to 15-20 MPH. Expecting bumps up in highs both days,
with mid 70s forecast for Thursday, and low 80s for Friday.

The upcoming weekend and on...

Upper level ridging sliding through the Plains looks to keep the
forecast dry for Saturday, with precipitation chances returning
Sunday. Models show various areas of upper level low pressure
rotating around the Pac NW/Nrn Rockies/Central-Western Canada
region for Sunday on into the first half of the new work
week...keeping the overall pattern over the Central Plains west
to southwesterly. Periodic shortwave disturbances are expected
to move out of the Central Rockies through the Plains...each
bringing chances for precipitation. Because of differences
between models with exact timing/track details, it`s hard to
have a ton of confidence this far out...but at this point the
overall best chances for precip currently look to come Monday
evening-Tuesday morning. At least at this point, none of these
disturbances look to have a notable push of cooler air and
dropping highs...Sat-Mon highs are in the mid 70s to low
80s...with more 70s for Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A SFC low is moving across SD today and south of the low is a
weak cold front moving across central NE. Along the front is a
mix of -SHRA and maybe an isolated -TSRA. With afternoon heating
a few -TSRA will be possible along the front. Looking at the 15z
HRRR, storms look fairly isolated and I am also thinking storms
to the S-SE of the area may choke off some of the moisture
flowing into the storms over the TAF sites which would limit
development over southern/ central NE. Will amend if needed.
The winds should WNW and outside of storms should be somewhat
light through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Beda