787
FXUS63 KGID 072359
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

...Aviation, Climate and Hydrology Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Monday, with
  record high temperatures in the forecast for Monday Afternoon
  (see climate section below for more details).

- As a result of the unusual early February warmth, there is at
  least limited potential for ice jam flooding over the next
  few days along our Nebraska counties residing along the
  Platte/Loup River systems (see separate hydrology section
  below for more).

- Low probability chances for precipitation (15-30%) return mid-
  late next week, though widespread or significant accumulations
  appear unlikely and the chances are higher for rain than snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Variably cloudy skies passed across the local area this
afternoon as a warm front approached south-central Nebraska.
This warm front will bring a switch in winds this evening, with
light westerly flow establishing itself across the local area
overnight. This switch in winds will also aid in the warming of
the airmass, with high temperatures expected to continue to
climb across the area on Sunday when most locations are expected
to top out in the mid to upper 60s. These very mild temperatures
combined with only light westerly breezes, will result in a
spectacular finish to the weekend across the region.

As we transition into Monday, while there will be a mix of
increasing high clouds across the area, temperatures are only
expected to climb further, with the current forecast indicating
new record high temperatures appear likely to start the new
week. Given the warmth, dry fuels and airmass the next couple of
afternoons, fire weather concerns come to mind, but these
concerns should be limited by somewhat light winds generally
less than 15 MPH each day.

As the upper level ridge flattens late Monday, a cold front is
forecast to cross the local area Monday night, ushering in a
cooler (yet still mild) airmass, mostly cloudy skies, and
breezy north winds by Tuesday. The upper level flow will then
remain more zonal through the end of the week, with some small
pops creeping in the forecast as early as Wednesday afternoon
and continuing through the end of the forecast period. That
said, this is largely a factor of the model blend as we will not
see precip settling in across the area for 4 days straight and
precip amounts through the end of next week are expected to be
light. While there are still significant differences between the
EC and GFS, the GFS appears much more promising for
precipitation, swinging a trough out of the southwest into the
central Plains late Friday or Saturday of next week, while the
EC keeps this same trough well south of the local area and
across the southern plains. All that said, again, do not
anticipate a significant chance for precip or much in the way of
accumulating precipitation until possible next Friday night,
and even this is still very much in question. Given the mild
temperatures, most precip should fall as rain and little to any
snow accumulation appears un-likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
precipitation-free weather throughout the period, with only
limited coverage of mid-high level clouds based mainly at-or-
above 15K ft. Even winds won`t be much of a concern, with
sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 9KT, as direction
transitions from southerly right away this evening...to west-
northwesterly for the majority of the period.

Perhaps the ONLY minor concern is the possibility of some modest
low level wind shear (LLWS) mainly 09-13Z as north-northwesterly
winds accelerate to 30-35KT mainly between 1,500-2,000 ft. AGL.
However, shear magnitude between the surface and this level is
currently expected to top out slightly under 30KT (and thus is
not considered worthy of TAF inclusion).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- REGARDING LOCALIZED ICE JAM POTENTIAL ALONG THE PLATTE/LOUP
  RIVER SYSTEMS...MAINLY THROUGH MONDAY:

At this time, we are not aware of any active/ongoing ice jam
flooding within our central/south central NE counties that
reside along the Platte and various branches of the Loup River
(although earlier today on off-duty NWS employee noted that a
jam might be in the process of forming in a typical "trouble
spot" just south of the I-80/Hwy 281 interchange south of Grand
Island).

With continued well-above normal temperatures (especially
through Monday), ice melt and movement will surely increase in
the Platte/Loup Rivers over the next few days, which could
result in the POSSIBLE formation of localized ice jams and
resultant flooding. Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding
from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar
rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam
flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely
(unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are very reliant
on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of
any ice jam flooding issues.

Although our confidence level in actually realizing ice jam
flooding issues within our forecast area over the next few days
remains a bit too low to justify a formal Flood Watch, this
potential concern continues to be highlighted in both our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) as well as in a Special
Weather Statement (SPSGID).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- RECORD WARM HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL:

Although high temps will jump solidly into the 60s across most
of our forecast area Sunday afternoon (Feb. 8), existing daily
records in the low-70s at Grand Island/Hastings airports appear
to be out of reach (these are the two NWS-maintained sensors for
which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs).

HOWEVER, Monday (Feb. 9) carries a greater potential for
breaking existing records at both sites. Please note that *
indicates our latest forecast would would tie or break the
existing daily record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE   | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1996 | 72*
---------------
Hastings, NE (HSI)
Feb. 9: 70 in 1954 | 72*

- SIDE NOTE: Although occasional high temperatures in the 70s
  are not that uncommon at Grand Island/Hastings during the
  latter half of February, they are certainly less common during
  the FIRST HALF of the month. In fact, it has been 9 years now
  since both sites reached 70+ degrees during the FIRST HALF of
  February...since Feb. 10, 2017 when Grand Island soared to 77
  degrees and Hastings 74 degrees.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch