132
FXUS63 KGLD 130343
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
943 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs
  around 80.

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions
  are forecast through Monday.

- Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the
  afternoon to evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

So far today is looking pleasant with cooler temperatures and
gradually clearing skies as we move into the afternoon. Temperatures
should continue to warm with the clearing with afternoon highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Light winds around 5-10 mph will shift
variably towards the south to southeast this afternoon and evening.
Once the winds become southerly, they should variably shift between
southwest to southeast through the remainder of the weekend.

Looking at convective allowing models (CAMs) since the 12Z runs,
most are struggling to bring any showers/storms to the area from
along the Front Range. That said, the 20% shower/storm chances
mentioned in the prior discussion have been removed for the late
afternoon/evening. Overnight lows are forecast to be quite mild in
the upper 50s to low 60s. With the NAMnest, HRRR, and RAP guidance
all favoring dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s advecting north
into the Tri-State area and the light winds, there is potential for
patchy fog to develop again between midnight and sunrise mainly for
those along and south of I-70. Should fog develop, it should burn
off mid-morning tomorrow.

Once the fog burns off tomorrow, temperatures will warm under clear
to mostly clear skies to the upper 80 and lower 90s thanks to an
upper ridge moving across the Rockies into the High Plains. As
mentioned earlier, winds will remain light around 5-10 mph and
become southeasterly during the afternoon hours before shifting to
southwesterly overnight Sunday night. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Moving into next week, the upper level ridge moves further across
the Great Plains while lee surface troughs develop along the Front
Range to High Plains region. Moisture will try to advect into the
Tri-State area from Mexico and the Gulf beginning Monday evening,
bringing some weak 20% chances for showers or storms along the Front
Range into Northeast Colorado. Confidence is low currently for any
storms to make it into the forecast area. The active pattern
continues through much of next week with daily chances for showers
and storms during the afternoon and evening hours through the
weekend. With the ridge pattern remaining dominant and limited
potential for forcing, confidence is low to moderate. Should severe
storms develop, all modes can be possible with flash flooding a
possibility for those who get multiple rounds of rain. High
temperatures will be in the 90s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will
be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Thursday
and Friday could have highs in the 80s both days before warming into
the low 90s. Overnight lows each night will fluctuate around the 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 941 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds will continue
through the TAF. There will be moisture advection through 12z
over the forecast area. However soundings do not show a
saturated layer occurring at or above the surface. Therefore
confidence for fog formation is low.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JTL