456
FXUS63 KGLD 112228
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
428 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm is possible over portions of
  northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve, mainly north
  and east of Colby, KS between 6-11 pm CDT. Quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threats, should
  storms develop.

- Breezy conditions are expected through mid next week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much
  cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area
  may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday
  evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and 500 mb analysis shows our region
in a weak northwest flow with weak shortwave on the northern edge of
the county warning area (CWA). Surface analysis shows a southwest to
northeast oriented dryline has set up on the western edge of the
CWA. Compared to yesterday`s forecast, the dryline has set up
further west than models originally had it. This will greatly impact
our storm chances for this afternoon. HREF ensemble paintballs only
have one member showing storms initiate around 5 pm CDT along a line
from Sherman County to Red Willow. If storms manage to form, they
are expected to be pop-up nature and last through around midnight.

Hazard wise, main concerns with storms will be hail around an inch
and wind gusts around 60 mph. A stronger or collapsing storm could
produce wind gusts around 70 mph. The environment is moderately
unstable east of the Colorado/Kansas border with around 2000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE and around 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. Model soundings are
showing a fairly dry mid-layer with 0-1 km shear less than 10 and 0-
3 km shear less than 20. These, along with general lack of forcing,
will likely be the limiting factors in storm development and
longevity. Lapse rates are steep with mid and lower levels around 7-
8 C/km, so if a storm can sustain itself despite the weaker shear
environment, up to 2 inch hail could occur.

For Saturday, conditions are forecast to be cooler due to an early
morning cold frontal passage from the north. High temperatures are
forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s. The cold front is expected to
linger in the area, so conditions will be breezy with gusts around
25 mph possible. Winds will generally be from the east.

Overnight into Sunday, a strong jet streak is forecast to set up
over the CWA. This will likely mix down stronger winds to the
surface creating a windy day for the Tri-State area. Winds are
expected to pick up in the afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible for the eastern CWA and gusts up to 40 for the western CWA.
Embedded shortwaves passages will give a chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Storms are expected to be sub-severe due
to lack of upper-level forcing and weak shear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The new work week will start off on the hot and breezy side as
the area remains sandwiched between a potent (but progressive)
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies and a strong upper
ridge over the Deep South. Deepening lee troughing, in response
to the N Rockies trough, will lead to moderately breezy
southerly winds and efficient mixing of an impressive late
summer low level thermal ridge. Latest NBM blend calls for high
temperatures in the 90s across the entire area. Far S/SE zones
may be even warmer given exceedance values of 100 degrees in
the 15-25 percent range. Another caveat to keep an eye on will
be the timing/placement of a cold front associated with
aforementioned trough. General consensus is that this front
should remain near or just N of the KS/NE state line through
peak heating, but any minor trends one way or another could lead
to forecast changes in these areas. Fire weather shouldn`t
become a concern as latest RH forecasts generally keep values at
or above 25%. Also, wind speeds may actually decrease through
the afternoon (esp. central and northern zones) with closer
proximity to the approaching cold front.

Main question/potential weather impact for Monday evening and
overnight will be if deep convection can develop along the cold
front. If storms can indeed form, conceptual model would support
high-based convection with potential to tap into hot/deeply
mixed boundary layer (inverted-v profiles) and produce
strong/severe wind gusts. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates
(~7.5 C/km), and hints of locally enhanced deep layer shear
immediately along the boundary (35-45kts?) could also support a
large hail threat. It`s not a forgone conclusion that everyone
will see storms/rain, though, as moisture/instability will be
lacking (at least initially) and best upper forcing will slide
across the Dakotas...but this does look to be our next best
chance for precipitation (60-80%).

Tuesday will be significantly cooler behind the front as latest
ensembles show 25th to 75th percentile temperatures mainly in
the 70s. Exception could be the far S/SE that still manage to
warm into the lower 80s. Regardless...solid 20-25 degrees cooler
than Monday. Cooler temperatures will also come with a
refreshing NE breeze. With drier air may come a brief taste of
40s for esp. N/NW zones Wednesday AM. High pressure nosing in
from the N. Plains should keep mild temperatures going through
midweek, but would expect some gradual air mass modification
back to near or just above normal for the end of the week.

Extended periods are littered with off an on POPs, though
confidence in any given period getting precipitation is low.
The area will be located on the western side of a flattened
upper ridge that`s centered over the Deep South. This will
promote advection of monsoonal upper moisture and at least a few
weak perturbations in SW upper flow. These could support
development of late afternoon convection along the Front Range
that shifts E during the evening, but again, confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Low confidence (<10%) of pop-up storms
affecting both terminals Friday evening until around midnight.
Winds will generally be out of the south around 10 knots until
early Saturday morning when a cold front moves through the area
from the north. The front will shift the winds to generally out
of the northeast and increase winds to around 15-20 knots. KMCK
could see higher wind gusts around 25 knots. Winds will shift
again to mainly out of the east towards the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK/Rhoades
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Rhoades