Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
311 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Thunderstorms have developed along the front near our southeast
edge. Also large area of storms have developed over eastern
Colorado in a post frontal environment. Rather strong shortwave
moving in from the west is helping storms develop as well. Shear,
instability, and lapse rates are favorable for continued severe
storms to develop and currently have a tornado and severe
thunderstorm watches out covering the entire area through the
evening.

Parameters still in place for these storms to produce very heavy
rainfall. Hrrr is capturing both the placement of storms and the
intense rainfall they are producing. So flash flood watch looks
good. Some lingering rainfall in the morning along with additional
development afternoon will be possible in the afternoon. Not much
time to look at that. However, mesoscale influences from ongoing
convection could enhance that. Temperatures for Wednesday will
need to be looked since could have a lot of wet ground and
lingering cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Upper low currently over Idaho will migrate slowly into the mid-
Mississippi Valley by Friday.  As it does so, it will keep a
lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms across the far
northeast counties through Thursday morning. Once the upper low
leaves the area, short wave ridging will temporarily move over the
area Thu-Fri. A second upper trough will move quickly into the area
Friday night with another chance of scattered convection. Later in
the weekend a closed upper low will move from the Intermountain
Region out over the High Plains with both the GFS and EC fairly
consistent in location and timing.  This will produce a chance for
widespread convection from Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.
Temperatures through the period will generally be near to above
normal with highs mostly in the 80s but approaching 90 by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Complicated forecast. High resolution models not doing well in
resolving cloud cover, low level moisture/temperatures, and
especially the wind field. Front that was pushed a little further
south early this morning due to overnight convection is starting
to return north. Where this front ends up will be area of
thunderstorm focus. Other area of initiation will be from the
higher terrain to the west.

Winds will be variable in direction but will tend to start out
from the east and southeast at roughly 10 to 15 knots. Kmck will
shift more to the northeast while Kgld will become more south with
some gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range by later this afternoon.
Thunderstorms should develop/move into the area later this
afternoon into early this evening. Conditions will start out vfr
but expect mvfr conditions when thunderstorms affect the sites.
After the storms end, mvfr ceilings will hang on until tomorrow
morning before becoming vfr once again.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER


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