Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 022136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

The closed low that was located south of our area yesterday will
continue to move across the Southeast this evening as the upper-
level ridge extends further east into the MS River Valley. The ridge
is expected to remain over the Tri-State area through Thursday
morning. Throughout the afternoon and early evening, the ridge will
flatten across the far northern CONUS. A closed low over the eastern
Pacific will continue moving closer to the central California coast
through the overnight hours. Wednesday afternoon, the closed low
will move on-shore before continuing east across the Great Basin

An upper-level ridge making it`s way across the western CONUS will
push the closed low, currently over New Mexico, eastward into the
Texas panhandle late this afternoon then across Oklahoma during the
overnight hours. The ridge is expected to move into the Tri-State
area this evening and remain over the area through the end of the
period. During the short term, the upper-level flow over the area
will change from the NE today to the NW tomorrow morning followed by
a shift to the W tomorrow afternoon. The shift to a zonal wind flow
comes as the pattern takes on an omega shape with the closed low
moving into the Southeast and another trough moving across the
Pacific towards the California Coast.

This afternoon through Wednesday night, the Tri-State are is
expected to remain dry due to the ridge aloft. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon as RH
values drop as low as the single digits. The S/SW winds remain
sustained between 5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. The main concern
for fire weather conditions this afternoon is over Graham and Gove
counties where the winds are the strongest. Conditions are expected
to improve shortly after sunset. A trough along the Front Range will
continue to deepen overnight. Wednesday morning, the trough will
begin to progress SSE with the center low moving across southeast
Colorado and southwest Kansas. During the day, a surface high will
move east over the High Plains and quickly move east tomorrow
evening as a surface trough moves across the Four Corners.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 60s to
lower 70s for highs with overnight lows in the 20s. Wednesday,
temperatures are forecasted to reach the 60s to near 70 across the
area for afternoon highs and fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s for
overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Thursday morning, the Tri-State area will remain under the influence
of the upper-level ridge as a closed low moves over the Four
Corners. The low is expected to continue moving east into the Tri-
State area by Thursday afternoon. An upper-level ridge is expected
to strengthen across the Great Basin Thursday and Friday, causing a
shift in the low`s track to the southeast as it moves across the
Colorado Plains and into western Kansas Thursday afternoon. Current
guidance shows the ridge moving into the High Plains Friday
afternoon as the low digs further south into Arkansas.

Beginning Saturday evening, the GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree
on timing of the pattern shift. Both models have the ridge extending
from across our area into Canada on Saturday with another trough
system approaching the Pacific Northwest from the Pacific. The GFS
is faster to push the pattern east with the trough moving across the
Northern Plains Sunday morning as a shortwave while the ECMWF keeps
the ridge over the Tri-State area through mid-morning on Sunday with
a deeper trough moving across the Rockies and extending south across
the CWA. With either solution, PoPs are low. Not much weather wise
is expected with this system. Once the trough moves through in
either model, the ridge re-builds across the Plains Sunday night
through Monday night. The next system to impact the Tri-State area
will move into the Pacific Northwest Monday night and make it`s way
across the western CONUS and into the Four Corners Tuesday. Current
guidance shows the trough beginning to enter the area late Tuesday
bringing an slight increase in precipitation chances at the end of
the period. Most of the weather, if any, with this trough is
expected on Wednesday of next week.

At the surface Thursday morning, precipitation chances will begin to
increase from the southwest as a surface low moves across southeast
Colorado and turns southeast into the Texas-Oklahoma panhandles. The
main precipitation type expected is rain; however, a few flurries
could mix in Friday morning mainly over Kit Carson and Cheyenne
Counties in Colorado as temperatures approach freezing. No
accumulation of snow is expected at this time. Precipitation chances
are currently expected to continue through mid-day Friday,
decreasing from north to south throughout the morning hours. With
the current forecast, a total QPF of ~0.25 to 0.65 inches is
possible with the highest amounts along and south of I-70. Once the
rain ends on Friday, the Tri-State area should remain dry through
the end of the period.

Temperatures around the Tri-State area will be a nice taste of
spring. Thursday and Friday highs are forecast to be in the 50s to
upper 60s with lows in the 20s to mid 30s. The remainder of the
period is expected to be in the 60 to near 70s for afternoon highs
and lows in the 30s to low 40s. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

GLD: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with SW winds
shifting to the W this afternoon at 10-15 kts. Near sunset, the
winds will become light and variable through the overnight hours.
Wednesday morning through the end of the period, the winds will
gradually shift to the E at 5-10 kts.

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated through the end of the period
with winds continuing to shift towards the NW this afternoon at
5-10 kts. After sunset, the winds will become light and variable
through Wednesday morning. After 15Z Wednesday morning, the winds
will remain light as they shift from NW to E.




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