437
FXUS63 KGLD 182024
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Tue Mar 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are ongoing for today with
  a Red Flag Warning in effect for counties generally along and
  south of Highway 36. SW winds gusting to 50 to 55 mph are
  forecast along with a wind shift to the NW later in the day.

- Blowing dust is ongoing this afternoon with visibilities
  generally remaining around one mile thus far. Be alert for
  sudden reductions in visibility. There also remains a low
  chance for a wall of dust late in the afternoon.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire area Tuesday
  evening through Wednesday afternoon with northerly winds
  gusting generally up to 65 mph, but occasionally up to 70 mph
  especially across eastern Colorado.

- A Blizzard Warning is in effect for all counties except
  Cheyenne (CO), Greeley, Wichita, and Wallace where an advisory
  is in place for blowing snow. Blizzard conditions are forecast
  to begin around 9pm MT and continue through the late morning
  hours with a gradual west to east decline in worst conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Mar 18 2025

The surface low has set up a little further south than
anticipated today which is limiting winds mainly along and
north of Highway 36 which is impacting the northeast portion of
the of the current Red Flag Warning but overall the Red Flag
Warning is performing as anticipated. Am not planning on ending
any part of the Red Flag at this time as as the prefrontal
moves north a little bit as the low deepens some, so do still
continue to think there will be multiple hours of critical fire
weather conditions for the northeast county along with the
anticipated wind shift making it more of a impact based red
flag warning. The blowing dust threat has also been panning out
as well thus far with a more pronounced plume originating
around the Kiowa/Crowley county area and advecting into the
Cheyenne, Wallace, Logan, and Greeley counties. Other than a few
reports around 0.5 miles visibilities that at least have been
reported have been around the one mile range. Do think the
reasoning for not any more significant visibility reductions is
due to the fact that the 2- 2.5km lapse rates are higher which
is allowing for the dust to diffuse more into the atmosphere.
Localized brownout conditions are still possible especially
near open fields and other dust source regions.

Now to the cold front, timing on that remains on track with a
passage through the area of around 6p-8pm MT. Am continuing to watch
very closely for any potential surges in speed as well which would
increase the haboob potential. My confidence in this still
remains around 10-20% chance in occurrence. For the wind behind
the front wind gusts of 60-70 mph are currently forecast due to
very strong pressure rises of 11-16mb over three hours which
should be remain enough to mix down high wind warning winds. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the wind field
with 60+ knot winds just above 785mb to even 50 knot winds right
at the surface so overall expectations remain the same. The
HRRR and other Hi-Res guidance has consistently been showing a
swath of 70+ knot wind gusts across western portions of Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties, which may not be impossible
especially if the wind fields are right as GFS soundings via
BUFKIT show 70 knot winds near Limon so may need to continue to
keep an eye on that potential as the evening goes on.

I did get enough confidence to upgrade Yuma and Kit Carson
county to a blizzard warning. Based the current forecast cold
air advection due think that the rain should change over the
snow to lead to blizzard conditions as the winds will be well
exceeding the 35 mph criteria. The main question is the amounts
due to the potential precipitation changeover dilemma and
exactly where does that set up at. The tipping point for me was
a very strong signal on the snow band tracker via the HRRR and
HREF output of that tool and the Aberdeen blowing snow model
showing 80+ percent probabilities given the current forecast
parameters. The other part of the decision was due to a
noticeable western trend of the shift of tails on recent runs
of the EFI. Otherwise the blowing snow forecast remains on
track. The overall most treacherous part of the period will be
mid evening across the west and gradually moving east across the
area overnight to eastern portions of the for the morning
hours. This may end up being the most impactful part of the
event due to the overlapping of the blizzard conditions
impacting the morning commute.

The conditions are forecast to gradually improve west to east
through the morning hours before being fully out of the area by the
early morning. Winds however will still be the story on Wednesday as
near 60 mph wind gusts will remain the theme through the morning
hours and perhaps a bit longer than that across the east, so may
need to keep an eye on a potential extension of the High Wind
Warning for eastern counties. Both the RAP and the GFS has
favorable lapse rates for blowing dust along and south of
Highway 40 but west of Highway 25 during the afternoon hours
Wednesday. I did go ahead and introduce some patchy dust wording
into the forecast to account for this but may be more of a
conditional threat due to how much precipitation does occur
tonight and if cloud cover remains thick enough that lapse rates
don`t destabilize as much as what guidance currently shows.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Thursday is forecast to see mid level ridging developing with a
surface trough which is forecast to bring additional gusty winds to
the region allowing for another day of critical fire weather
concerns as winds gust around 30-35 mph. This may be mitigated
however if there is some remaining snow pack based on how
tonight goes.

Friday, another trough and associated surface low are forecast to
move through the area. This should increase winds and bring another
dry slot through the area, allowing for continued critical fire
weather conditions. There is a chance for wind gusts above 55 mph in
western portions of the area, though the low doesn`t look like it
will deepen enough looking at ensemble members. For now the chance
is less than 20%, but keep an eye out for updates. There is a small
chance for precipitation, but it is currently unlikely that the low
would wrap enough moisture for meaningful precipitation.

This weekend looks to continue the active pattern with more small
ridges and troughs. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
with the systems keeping winds elevated and a forecast lack of
meaningful moisture return into the area. That is not saying that
there aren`t chance for storms and maybe some snow, just that it
currently isn`t the favored solution.

Temperatures currently for this time period will see highs
rebounding into the 60s from the brief cool down on Wednesday.
At this time Saturday looks to be the warmest with the potential
for 70s before another brief cool down with a late weekend
system.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Mar 18 2025

For KGLD, gusty winds around 40 knots are forecast through the
remainder of the afternoon. We are watching for some hazy skies
to move into the area from blowing dust across the southwest
reducing visibilities some. There is also a potential that a
localized plume of dust may affect the terminal significantly
reducing visibility, will monitor satellite closely and will
issue AMD if needed.

For KMCK, cold front has already moved through the terminal as
mainly NNE winds will continue.

For each terminal, a stronger surge of cold air is forecast to
move across the entire area shifting winds to the NNW and
increasing them to 50+ knots. Near blizzard to blizzard
conditions are also forecast for each terminal through at least
sunrise for KGLD and mid morning for KMCK. Winds will then
remain gusty through the end of the period after snowfall
stops.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-028-
     029.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KSZ014>016-027>029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     to noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ027-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday
     for COZ090>092.
     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday
     for COZ090-091.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT
     Wednesday for COZ092.
NE...High Wind Warning from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081.
     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg/KAK
AVIATION...Trigg