Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 070551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020

19Z Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated weak westerly flow
across the CWA as it was on periphery of large H5 ridge across
southwest CONUS. At the surface, trough axis was apparent on sfc
winds and cumulus fields was draped from roughly KMNH to KIMB.

Main concern through tomorrow will be continued heat and fire wx
concern, followed by small threat for thunderstorms each afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight...Potential for a few airmass type
thunderstorms across eastern CWA looks somewhat slim as CU field has
shown little development so far this afternoon and has actually
decreased on coverage somewhat. Still not out of the question a
storm could develop given 2000+ j/kg of CAPE and little CINH, but
with lack of a clear lifting mechanism makes chances very slim.
Surface trough in eastern Colorado may provide a bit more focused
ascent, but capping a bit stronger. Can`t rule out a few cells
grazing Yuma county in the early evening, but it does not look like
any location will see any widespread precipitation tonight.

Tuesday...Shortwave trough will move over top of ridge well to the
north of the area, but enhanced cyclogenesis ahead of it will lead
to stronger southerly winds than today, especially across
northwestern zones. This increase of winds, combined with
dewpoints falling to the upper 30s will bring critical fire
weather conditions to Yuma county. Right now, threat appears
limited to just this area and will keep RFW limited in area.
Otherwise, expect another area of thunderstorms to roll off of the
higher terrain and impact northwest corner of CWA. As is the case
today, forcing is limited and with drier air in west not sure that
moisture will be there for more organized storms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020

For the extended period, we will be experiencing a similar pattern
as the past few weeks with a strong ridge building from the
southwest on Wednesday towards the Central Great Plains region. The
ridge will continue to build through the extended period with a
shortwave trough moving through the Tri-State area Wednesday.

Wednesday, the sub-tropical jet will be moving east across the Four
Corner States into the area bringing strong 50-55kt westerly flow in
the upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface winds will be southerly
for most of the day, gradually shifting west then north by Wednesday
night. Temperatures on Wednesday will be hot with most of the area
reaching the low 100s for highs. Relative humidities will drop into
the mid-teens to 25 percent from eastern Colorado through the
central portion of the Goodland CWA. Currently, the winds look to be
below the gusting thresholds for elevated fire weather conditions;
however, they will continue to be watched over the next few days.
There is a chance for thunderstorms during the late afternoon to
evening hours in the eastern counties of the CWA as an area of
surface low pressure associated with a shortwave trough moves from
eastern Colorado southeast across Kansas into the panhandle of
Oklahoma overnight into Thursday. Thursday, looks to be the next
chance of rain for the long term with a slight chance for
thunderstorms across the area in the afternoon and evening.

For the remainder of the period, the ridge will continue to build as
an area of high pressure strengthens over the Four Corner states. As
the ridge builds, temperatures will continue to be in the mid to
upper 90s. Highs will be even hotter on Saturday reaching the upper
90s to low 100s across the entire area. Fire weather will become
more of a concern Saturday with the humidities dropping in the
western counties to the mid-teens. Similar to Wednesday, the winds
seem to be trending below elevated fire condition criteria.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear to mostly clear skies will persist with mostly high
clouds. Light south winds overnight will increase through the
morning with gusty winds after 14Z at GLD and 17Z at MCK as a
surface trough deepens over eastern Colorado. Gusty winds will
continue through the afternoon and evening at both TAF sites.


CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ252.



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