Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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256
FXUS63 KGLD 212038
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening, with
  low chances of severe.

- Warmer and drier conditions forecast for the mid to latter
  part of next week, with low chances for precipitation at the
  end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Across the region this afternoon skies are a partly to mostly sunny
mix. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the upper 70s to
the mid 80s. Winds are meandering around east-northeasterly up to 10-
15 mph at times.

Main wx concerns will focus on rw/trw chances this afternoon and
evening and again Monday/Monday evening. The latest RAP40 500mb
analysis is showing amplified ridging over the western portion of
the country, with a broad open trough the Plains and points east.
The result is a northerly flow aloft with a shortwave moving south
through east-central Colorado.

There is a weak inverted surface trough pushing into east-southeast
Colorado, and combined with the shortwave pushing into the area, are
creating scattered rw/trw mainly west of the CWA. There have been a
few isolated showers that developed in western Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties but collapse as they move away from the surface trough.

The latest HRRR/NamNest are showing the best chances for any
convection through about 03z-04z Monday w/ the focus in Colorado and
maybe into the immediate adjacent areas near the CO/KS border. Have
put in a 15-20% chance for this tapering westward through 04z
Monday. Our CWA is currently not outlooked from SPC, so any storms
that should occur will have brief sub-severe gusts and brief
downpours, and even some small hail.

Going into Monday, the wx focus shifts to the aforementioned surface
trough that now pushes into western Kansas. Similar conditions aloft
with another weak shortwave traversing the area Monday afternoon.
Looking for a 20-30% chance for rw/trw to occur before tapering to a
20% chance Monday evening. The surface flow becoming more E/SE as
the day progresses will allow for an increase in low level moisture,
and with soundings showing inverted-v profiles around 18z-21z, low
SBCape 400-500j/kg, thinking any storms will be slight wind makers
with some locally heavy rainfall before they taper Monday evening.
High pressure and dry conditions sets up going into Tuesday as the
upper ridge begins a trek eastward.

For temps, highs in the short term period will see an upward trend
with Monday seeing a range in the lower to mid 80s, but giving way
to a range on Tuesday from the upper 80s west into the lower 90s
east. Lows each night will range from the upper 50s west into the
lower 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

The main wx focus in the extended period from the latest GFS/ECMWF
focuses on the movement of a strong amplified 500mb ridge. This
feature pushes slowly eastward during this time. Models do differ
some on the placement late week as a strong upper trough swings into
the Pacific Northwest and into the north central Rockies. Current
guidance has this making a more easterly trek than digging into the
Rockies. The result of this will be limited precip potential, giving
way to a warm up with near and above normal temperatures.

There is a shortwave that works into the central Rockies late
Friday, but has a hard time pushing east due to the ridge blocking
its advancement. The system will have a 20-30% chance for rw/trw in
Colorado Friday night before pushing into the western CWA with a 20-
40% chance of precip on Saturday. limited qpf from the latest NBM
guidance and with hot temperatures expected area-wide, conditions
will be similar to the past few weeks with any storms posing a wind
threat as soundings showing DCape from the GFS around 18z-00z near
the 1500-1700j/kg mark.

For temps, highs across the region for the extended period will
range in the 90s each day, with hottest numbers seen in areas east
of Highway 25. Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s area-
wide, but late in the week, slightly warmer east of Highway 25 as
some locales from Friday night onward could see lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 950 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will see VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Winds will be northeast around 10kts through
03z Monday, then light/variable. KGLD will see winds become
northwesterly around 10kts from 14z onward.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN