Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
830 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Short term period remains quiet under shortwave ridge aloft.
Temperatures overperformed model expectations today and expect the
same tomorrow with no real change in air mass behind a surface
trough. Winds will be breezy from the northwest, however, on

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

The region will continue to be under the influence of upper-level
ridging with highs in the upper-50s until the late evening on
Friday at which time a cold front descends upon the area from the
north ahead of a cold Canadian airmass. Models are in very good
agreement on the timing of the leading edge of the front. A
northerly wind shift and by default, CAA, are expected to be in
place overnight Friday (03Z Saturday). Beginning Saturday during the
early morning hours could be a mixed-phase event with slight chances
for widespread freezing rain along and north of the I-70 corridor.
It begins to extend southward but looks to decrease in coverage,
affecting the extreme southern portion of Yuma County, the entirety
of Kit Carson County, Sherman County, the northern third of Wallace
County, and the NE corner of Logan County. Everything north and east
of these areas will see chances for light snow. The threat for
freezing rain again progresses southward and covers the southwestern
sector of the forecast area, but quickly turns over to light snow by
about 6 pm Saturday, before ending Sunday morning. Sherman County
looks to be the bullseye so-to-speak for mixed-phase precip, with
the most accumulation within the entire forecast area at 0.04" of
accumulation. Minimal accumulation is expected elsewhere within the
northern half of the region with between 0.01-0.02" of accumulation.
Accumulation is not expected across the southern half of the region.

Max temps will drop nearly 30 degrees between Friday and Saturday
with this system. A very shallow layer of upslope winds will
initially be pushing 30kt through Saturday morning (15Z) and
shifts back to downslope winds by Sunday at 12Z. This will aid in
a quick recovery back into the 50s by Monday, with a rebound
period of just 1 day. The longwave pattern supports a quick
transition from longwave troughing to back under the influence of
a longwave ridging by Tuesday. Like Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
will be very pleasant with temps reaching into the lower 50s and
clear skies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 830 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. West winds 6
to 12kts (highest at KGLD) expected at taf issuance becoming
northwest at similar speeds around 15z. Winds then gust toward
25kts at KGLD through 21z before falling below 12kts and backing
to the west through the rest of the taf period. For KMCK winds
expected to be around 12kts from 17z-21z before subsiding and also
backing to the west at speeds under 10kts in the evening.




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