000
FXUS63 KGLD 241650
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

Forecast was updated to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

Forecast concerns continue to be thunderstorm chances/affects, fog,
and high temperatures through the period. Satellite continuing to
show a highly amplified pattern from the Pacific into the western
Atlantic. Current closed off low ejecting into the north central
portion of the country. Mean trough remains out west with more
shortwave energy coming in the backing of this trough to create the
next closed off low. Frontal boundary remains draped across Kansas
just to our south and east.

At jet and mid levels the  models started out well. The models
tended to start cool to our south with the Gfs there and overall
doing better.

Today/tonight...Currently have fog/dense fog advisory. Latest
observations and model data support this. Question then becomes how
much/fast does it clear out today. Clearing trend from the west has
already begun so it looks like it will happen. Models still have it
warming up significantly. There is some downslope on the winds but
not for the entire day. Loaded the consensus blend which lowered
temperatures a little from yesterday.

Right rear quadrant starts affecting the far west and northwest
portions of the area during the afternoon. This RRQ moves a little
further east during the night, and looks to affect much of the
northwest half of the area through the night.

Shortwave ridge/subsidence look to hold until later into the
afternoon/early in the evening. At the same time rather strong
shortwave trough moves through. Preceding this shortwave trough,
strong warm air advection mid levels behind the exiting ridge will
be in place. Theta-e lapse rates are near zero or slightly negative.
Elevated Cape increases at the same time. From mid evening into the
overnight hours, high resolution depict a narrow intense band of
thunderstorms and that makes sense with what is mentioned above.
So increase pops for the later half of the night.

Saturday/Saturday night...At this time it looks like the
thunderstorms will be done by the beginning of the day. Above
mentioned jet moves across the area during the morning and ends up
near or over the southeastern portion of the area late in the
afternoon and early evening. After that it moves east of the area.

At this time it looks like a surface/850 mb boundary near the
southern end of our area with upslope winds to the north of it. At
the very least we have low level easterly winds in place. Models are
depicting a rather strong and negatively tilted shortwave trough
moves through from late in the afternoon into the overnight hours.
Shortwave is slow to move because it is having to move up the west
side of the mid level ridge.

Precipitable water values are 0.75 to 1 inch. Late in the afternoon
into the evening, the effective shear increases to near 50 along
with an increase of 0-3 SRH into the 100 to 200 range. So expect
storms to become severe and produce locally heavy rainfall. The day
two outlook has marginal to slight risk of severe with the enhanced
area not too far away. So expect storms to last into the overnight
hours.

Storms become more spotty after midnight. Boundary layer stays
rather moist. There are indications that fog will develop where rain
is not occurring. At this time plan on putting in patchy fog after
midnight.

Models are all over the place with how warm it will get. Low levels
look to not dry out much even after the precipitation ends. The wind
field is light and actually shifts from north to east to southeast
during the afternoon. Plus clouds will be increasing in the
afternoon as the thunderstorms begin to develop.

Sunday/Sunday night...At this time the forecast builder has some
lingering rain in the morning. That may be a bit overdone. However
I am okay with it at this time. There will be some patchy fog
around in the morning, especially where it is not raining.

Once again in the afternoon into the nighttime hours another strong
negatively tilted shortwave. stronger than Saturday shortwave, will
move through. Also some jet lift will be moving through although the
models disagree on the details of this. Precipitable water values
are higher and are generally from 1 to 1.5 inches. Cape is higher
along with effective shear near 40. So again there will be locally
heavy rainfall along with a chance of severe thunderstorms.

Have a large difference in expected high temperatures. The above
mentioned surface boundary moves north but not sure how far north.
Plus some places may not completely clear out from the morning
stratus and fog. Also storms rapidly develop in the afternoon. Right
now it looks like the southwest warms up the most, and I am fine
with that for now.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

An upper level trough will persist over the western U.S. at the start of
the forecast period with a weakening upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. Southwest flow remains in place over the Central High
Plains. A surface low is expected to cross through the Tri-State
area Monday night into Tuesday, with a cold front extending south.
A few showers will be possible beginning Monday evening with a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms going into the day on
Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the upper ridge will broaden,
extending from Southern California to central Kansas. A few
showers may linger into the morning hours on Wednesday, before
tapering off by afternoon.

Flow will split with the upper trough remaining over the
southwestern U.S. and a ridge building over the PAC NW on
Thursday. Temperatures will gradually rise through the end of the
extended period with dry conditions through Thursday night. A
quick moving shortwave trough will enter the region on Friday. A
few showers may be possible through the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Southwest winds
may gust over 20kts this afternoon before settling to a southerly
direction near 10kts around sunset. Winds shift to the northwest
around 10kts near 10z slowly veering to the northwest then
northeast at similar speeds through the morning hours.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through about 08z with winds from
the southwest and south near 10kts or so. Stratus and perhaps some
mist move in from around 09z-12z possibly creating lifr cigs under
light northwest winds. By 14z north winds around 7kts expected
with skc conditions. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible a few
hours either side of 09z, right now confidence and coverage too
low to include in the forecast. Later shifts will need to monitor
both convective threat and possibility of sub vfr conditions in
the above mentioned timeframe.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99