Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 292052
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
252 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures return Friday and into early next
  week. A few record high temperatures may be in jeopardy this
  weekend. Ice conditions will continue to deteriorate.

- A system forecast to arrive between late Sunday and Monday looks
  to deliver the next chance for widespread precipitation to the
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

With upper-level ridging in place over the region the rest of
this afternoon and overnight look quiet from a sensible weather
standpoint. Mid and high level clouds across the region are
expected to ext this evening leaving clear skies overnight. Winds
about 1000 ft off the surface are expected to remain around 25-30
knots with continued WAA which should prevent overnight
temperatures from tanking. Lows tonight are forecast to range
from around 20 degrees across the north to the upper 20s across
the Fox Valley and along the lakeshore. The riding pattern will be
exiting Friday, but mean southwesterly flow and a drier air mass
will keep the area precipitation free to end the week as
temperatures continue to warm.

Another WAA regime is expected to set up this weekend ahead of a
trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night/Sunday
morning. With mean southwesterly flow out ahead of this trough
expect most of the weekend to remain dry. With forecast soundings
showing deeper mixing, temperatures are forecast to continue
warming this weekend. Sunday looks like the warmest day of this
forecast period with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s to
upper 60s across the area, which would put more record highs in
jeopardy. Additionally with the deeper mixing to around 900-850mb
southerly winds are expected to gust to around 30-35 mph at times
this weekend, with the strongest gusts expected Sunday afternoon.

There are some marginal fire weather concerns for this weekend
given the warmer temperatures and gusty winds, however, RHs are no
expected to drop much below 40% limiting the fire weather risk.

The next chance for precipitation is still progged to arrive to
the area sometime late Sunday evening to Monday morning, however,
there is still considerable uncertainly with the timing and track
of this system. The GEFS and EPS ensembles both have trended
toward a further north track for the main surface low pressure
system which could push back the onset of any precipitation until
the cold front associated with this system arrives. The most
recent GFS run has increased instability and mid-level lapse
rates Monday afternoon, which depending on the timing of the cold
frontal passage could put a few thunderstorms in play. However,
there is still too much uncertainty  with the timing of this
system to really evaluate the severe weather potential.

Behind the aforementioned cold front temperatures are expected to
trend slightly cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, but still above
normal with high temperatures reaching the low to upper 40s. With
high pressure also developing across the northern Plains expect
the middle of next week to trend dry.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mid and high
clouds will be drifting over northern and northeastern WI this
afternoon, and should start to clear out late this afternoon
leaving clear skies overnight. Southerly winds are expected to
start increasing this afternoon with gusts reaching to around 20
knots at times. With a temperature inversion developing after
sunset wind gusts at the surface will diminish, but winds of 40-45
knots will remain at 2000 ft creating LLWS for all TAF sites
overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK


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