823
FXUS63 KGRB 141708
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1108 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy/areas of fog may impact travel early this morning and
  late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures to continue through the middle of next
  week. It appears Monday will be the warmest day ahead of a cold
  front, with a 40-80% chance of reaching 50 degrees south of a
  Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line.

- A potent system is expected (60-90% chance) to bring rain, snow
  or a wintry mix to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Travel
  may be impacted by a wintry mix or accumulating snow across
  northern Wisconsin.

- There is another system that could impact travel in the Thursday
  to Friday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Abundant dry air in place has kept dense fog from forming across
much of the area this morning. Instead, some patchy fog was noted
across some of the region with only modest reductions in
visibilities. Therefore, will drop the Dense Fog Advisory across
the region this morning as widespread dense fog is not anticipated
for the rest of the morning. Patchy fog is also expected tonight
into Sunday morning; however, it does not appear that widespread
dense fog is anticipated.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures to continue through the
middle of next week. It appears Monday will be the warmest day
ahead of a weak cold front, with a 40-80% chance of reaching 50
degrees south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line. There is even a
10-20% chance of reaching 60 degrees in Waushara as well as
southern Wood and Portage counties. The record or near record
warmth comes to an end Monday night behind a weak cold front, with
highs on Tuesday in the middle 30s to lower 40s. These readings
are still about 10 degrees above normal for the date.

A potent system is expected (60-90% chance) to bring rain, snow
or a wintry mix to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Precipitable water values are near record for the date. Also, an
east-west band of heavier QPF has been focused across northern
Wisconsin where 0.75 to 1.25 inches of QPF is possible. Travel
may be impacted by a wintry mix or accumulating snow across
this region depending on precipitation type.

There is another system that could (30-50% chance) impact travel
in the Thursday to Friday timeframe, with the potential for an
accumulating snowfall. This system is colder with a better chance
for snowfall, although there is less moisture to work with so the
potential for higher end snowfall amounts is lower.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current satellite imagery shows low stratus lifting north over
far northeast Wisconsin, the northern Bay, and northern Lake
Michigan. Dry air in place and southerly winds should keep this
stratus from impacting most terminals through the evening
hours.  Mid and high clouds associated with a storm system over
the central plains will continue to push into the region late in
the day.

A primary concern tonight is the potential for low stratus and
fog redevelopment, especially over the northern lake and far
northeast Wisconsin as low-level winds back and nocturnal cooling
occurs. While guidance is aggressive with visibility restrictions,
confidence is low due to incoming mid and high clouds which may
mitigate fog development. Low level winds are also have a
southern trajectory which should limit the westward extend of
stratus and fog potential. The highest probability of impacts is
expected between 07z and 13z Sunday, with KMTW being the most
likely site for MVFR/IFR conditions. Lower confidence at the other
terminals but did show a tempo for MVFR visibilities at KGRB and
KATW.

A weak, moisture-starved cold front will cross the region between
06z and 14z Sunday. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the
front, pushing any lingering low stratus and fog offshore and
leading to clearing skies on Sunday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC