000
FXUS63 KGRR 060730
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

- Gusty Northwest winds along the Lakeshore

- Fair and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek

- Potent Cold front along as an Extratropical System Nears the
  Great lakes Region Mid Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

- Gusty Northwest winds along the Lakeshore

High Pressure will build over the region. There will be
downsloping flow which will allow for northwesterly winds.
These will be strongest over the lake but will allow for 15 to 20
mph gusts inland.

- Fair and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek

With the high building over the area, mild weather will dominate
through the first part of the upcoming week. Mainly clear skies
with around normal temperatures are expected. 850 mb temperatures
moving into the region Monday and Tuesday will bring temps of +21C
at that level. That should translate to upper 80s to low 90s
Monday and Tuesday. Those are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Potent Cold front along as an Extratropical System Nears the
  Great lakes Region Mid Week

 Behind that warm air advection, the remanants of Cristobal are
expected to move through Wisconsin and the Upper Great Lakes. A
deepening and potent Cold front will be moving through the upper
midwest at that time. That front should lift Cristobal and then
move through Lower Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest
plumes show upwards of 2-3 inches are possible though the mean is
around 1 inch QPF with this system. That seems to match with the M
climate anomalies. The largest anomalies move to our north. There
is decent CAPE, however given the timing of the system, there
could be limited CAPE but with decent shear. So will have to
continue to watch how this system evolves.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Can`t rule out some patchy fog overnight, but it would be shallow
and of short duration, so kept the TAFs VFR through Saturday
night. A period of gusty northwest winds to 20-25 kts is likely
Saturday afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Will be issuing a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement
for this afternoon and evening, with highest waves around 4 feet
expected south of Grand Haven. Typically in this type of synoptic
set up with a sfc high advancing from the northwest - coupled with
cold advection and differential heating - the winds will over-
perform at the lakeshore from about mid afternoon through early
evening. A period of NNW winds of 20-30 kts and waves around 4 feet
looks likely from about 3 PM to 10 PM.

Significant winds and waves are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday
as the deep sfc low tracks north through Wisconsin then into
Ontario. Initially there will be a period of strong southerly winds
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, followed be strong westerly flow
on Wednesday and Wednesday night in the cold advection on the back
side of the system. Gale force winds and waves up to 8 feet appear
possible, which would require Beach Hazards Statements and possibly
a lakeshore flood advisory or warning.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MIZ056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ceru
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade