Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 291713
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1213 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry through early next week with warming temperatures

- Turning unseasonably warm into early next week

- Showers Possible Later Monday into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

- Mainly dry through early next week with warming temperatures

We are seeing the lake effect cloud cover and snow showers gradually
diminishing over time this morning across the entire area. There are
just a few narrow bands of cloud cover present, with a few flurries
remaining mainly along the U.S.-10 corridor. Plenty of clearing is
present between the narrow bands of clouds.

The trend for clearing should only continue through the day today.
The upper wave/cyclonic flow aloft is lifting out of the area early
this morning. This will allow a strong upper ridge/anti-cyclonic
flow aloft to build over the area. This will lead to strong
subsidence, which is combining with the dry low level air in place
with dew points in the single digits F. The other nail in the coffin
for the lake effect are low level temperatures quickly moderating
from the negative mid teens C this morning, to near 0C this evening.

There will be one fly in the ointment that will prevent long term
clearing, and maybe dry weather going into the weekend. That will be
a short wave that is across southern AZ this morning. This short
wave is forecast to lift NE and will travel just south of the area
by late Friday afternoon. There will be an increase in cloud cover
with this feature, especially across the south on Fri. A light
sprinkle/shower can not be completely ruled out across the I-94
corridor late Friday afternoon. It does look like just about all of
the pcpn with it should stay south of the area. This wave just
doesn`t have a good Gulf feed of moisture into it.

- Turning unseasonably warm into early next week

The models continue to show deep warm air advection over the weekend
and into Monday.  Looking at 925 mb temps, they rise from 4 deg C
Saturday, to 9 deg C Sunday and 13 deg C Monday.  Mixing to that
level supports max temps generally 50 to 55 Saturday, and into the
60s for Sunday and Monday. Ensemble max Temp guidance supports 60s
for both Sunday and Monday. Min temps Sunday night are forecast to
drop only into the upper 40s to low 50s, which would be roughly 25
to 30 degrees above normal. Monday does look like the warmest day
and we could make a run at record levels at several locations. Here
are the current Monday record high temps, MKG 62, GRR 66, LAN 64,
BTL 69, BIV 72 and AZO 72.

- Showers Possible Later Monday into Tuesday

There is still a lot of spread in the ensemble qpf guidance during
this period as a weakening cold front moves in.  Trends support less
of a chance for rain Monday as the front had trended slower.  If the
cold front passes through Monday night, there will be less of a
chance for storms as any instability steadily diminishes.   With the
front in the area Tuesday, there will be a potential for showers and
ensemble qpf guidance supports this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected with southwest winds into Friday.
There will be some low level wind shear tonight with the low level
jet moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

We will maintain the Small Craft Advisory as is through the 11 am
expiration time. Winds are in the process of coming down, and the
waves are following suit with the usual lag.

There will only be a brief respite in the higher winds and waves
from mid morning through mid evening tonight as the winds from the
SSW pick up quickly. This looks to be a solid SCA event again. We
will hold off on doing anything for the next event, until the
current event ends this morning.

Once the event begins tonight, much of the period over the next few
days are likely to see headlines with winds and waves staying up.
The exception to this thinking might be Fri night when things
diminish slightly.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...


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