000
FXUS63 KGRR 012330
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
630 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

- Warmup Tuesday into Wednesday

- Cooler Thursday into the Weekend

- Overall Dry Pattern Persists into Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

- Warmup Tuesday into Wednesday -

Surface high pressure that will build into our area late tonight
will be shunted off to our southeast tomorrow as a surface low
tracks through Ontario. This in turn will result in increased
southwest flow with decent warm air advection. Temperatures for
tomorrow are expected to warm back into the upper 30s for central
lower to around 40 for the rest of southern lower.

Conditions for Wednesday will be similar if not even warmer, with
highs into the low to upper 40s across the area.

- Cooler Thursday into the Weekend -

After the shortwave to our north drives a back door cold front into
southern lower MI, slightly cooler conditions can be expected for
Thursday onward. Otherwise we are still looking at quiet weather
with highs in the upper 30s and more sunny skies.

- Overall Dry Pattern Persists into Next Week -

Limited moisture as well as persistent high pressure will keep
conditions dry through the end of this week and into the weekend.
Several more sunny days can be expected, with highs in the upper 30s
to low 40s and lows below freezing. Into the start of next week
southerly flow will amplify ahead of the approach of a low
pressure system helping warm temperatures into the 50s for the
start of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The wind will be settling down over the next hour or so as we head
into the night with the mixing height decreasing. Any gusts are
expected to fall under 20 knots by 01z. The atmosphere is very dry
so clear to mainly clear skies are forecasted. The wind swings
around to southwest on Tuesday and strengthens in the afternoon.
Gusts will once again top 20 knots. Skies will remain mostly clear
as the atmosphere will still be relatively dry.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Hazardous conditions persist for mariners today as winds gust up to
30 knots with waves nearing 6 to 7 feet. These hazardous conditions
will persist through this evening and eventually improve in
the early morning hours tomorrow shortly after midnight.

Those improved conditions will not be long lasting as winds shift
southerly and build back into gales tomorrow mid-morning. The
strongest winds will be for areas north of Pentwater, with slightly
weaker winds to the south that will still be hazardous to
small craft.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for
     LMZ849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thielke
DISCUSSION...Thielke
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Thielke