Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 251048 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 648 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will shift off the Atlantic coast today and become stationary. This will bring moisture back to the region and a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 AM Friday: Stratocu is scattering out, but will linger through mid morning across the mountains. Cumulus will develop for the afternoon. The atmosphere remains capped, so no deep convection expected. However, there could be some isolated diurnal showers over the Smokies and the I-77 corridor where enough low level moisture creates some very weak instability. Highs will be warmer today as thicknesses rise, but still nearly 5 degrees below normal. Any showers will dissipate quickly during the evening with dry conditions for most of the overnight. Low level flow becomes southerly with an increase in moisture. Expect low stratus to develop across much of the area overnight as a result. Mountain valley fog will be possible where low clouds don`t develop or are slow to arrive. Low temps will be on the increase as well, warming to near or a few degrees below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday...The upper pattern becomes dominated by sub-trop ridging while an Atl sfc high ridges across the SE region. Moisture flux within the h92-h85 layer will increase Sat and be maintained thru the period in a mean se/ly flow. Soundings look similar each day with low-end sbCAPE likely realized each afternoon aft 13z. With no sigfnt triggers available and with an overall non/dynamic regime, afternoon pulse storms will be the favored convec mode. Not anticipating many strong storms, but a few cells may become quite tall and produce stg outflows and periods of hail. These storms will be diurnally driven, with isol showers possibly lingering across the higher terrain during the overnight periods in continued mech lift. Max temps will be held a degree or two below normal, while seasonal sfc td/s will make for muggy conds each day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday...Not much change was made to the previous fcst. The overall pattern will not evolve much with the area dominated stg sub-trop ridging, while a stationary front remains situated well NW of the FA. Weak flow thru the column and increased llvl moist flux off the GOM will lead to afternoon -shra and isol to scattered thunderstorms each day. Profiles show skinny sbCAPE each day with weak to nil capping, so the overall strength and longevity of storms will be limited. Max temps will nudge to more normal levels and summertime mugginess will continue. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR stratocu is beginning to scatter out but a brief cig will be possible early this morning. Light ENE wind through the morning will become SE for the afternoon. KAVL will see SSE wind throughout. VFR cumulus expected to redevelop for the afternoon. A moist south to SE low level flow develops during the evening and overnight. MVFR to IFR cigs expected to develop across much of the area. Conditions improve from west to east during the morning Saturday. Outlook: Deepening moisture will result in chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms thru Tuesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning. Confidence Table... 10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 97% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 92% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...RWH

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