Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 080738 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 338 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will pass south and east of New England this weekend, but otherwise high pressure nearby will keep conditions fairly quiet. Another area of low pressure will pass to our south on Monday with widespread light rain expected. An upper level low pressure system will pass over the region Tuesday with high pressure building in its wake Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Cyclogenesis will continue well off the Mid Atlantic coastline this morning as latest satellite imagery shows a center of low pressure hundreds of miles east of New Jersey. There will be a chance of showers over New Hampshire later this afternoon within the closest proximity of an inverted trough extending from this offshore system. The latest HREF displays this low cloud cover mainly over western portions of our forecast area. Elsewhere mid and high level moisture will extend over the region. Temperatures will be very uniform from north to south with mid to upper 50s in most all areas. The coolest areas will be along the Midcoast region of Maine once again in closest proximity to the developing offshore low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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A westerly gradient will develop tonight. This will prevent frost from forming in all areas. Clearing will take place from southwest to northeast during the overnight hours. A small ridge of high pressure will quickly cross the region on Sunday. This will allow for a dry and mild day. H8 temperatures around +2C with sunshine and good mixing will allow for highs in the 60s. An offshore wind will allow for the warmest temperatures to be along and near the coastline. Clouds will begin to increase late in the day as yet another system approaches the region from the southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Overview...Not much change in the last 24 hours, rather low-impact weather is expected in the long term, though there will be some chances for much-needed precipitation. The best chances for that will be Monday morning as a warm front pushes into southern New England...and then on Tuesday when an upper level low crosses the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal over the period. Impacts...Minimal. Forecast Details...By Sunday evening, an area of low pressure is expected to be located over the Ohio Valley with a warm front extending east toward the mid-Atlantic region. The warm front will attempt to push as far north as our region as the low tracks east- northeast, but it looks like it will only make it to southern New England. However, we can expect some precipitation from this system, especially over southern NH and southwestern ME. Rainfall looks to begin after midnight and continue through Monday morning before tapering off as the low moves off the coast to our south. Still not expecting widespread amounts of more than a quarter inch, but it is possible that some southern NH locations see a bit more than that. An upper level low then pushes west toward New England from Canada Monday night. Unlike some of the other upper lows we have dealt with this spring, this one moves right on through Maine late Tuesday into early Tuesday night...generating some showers in the mountains and breezy winds throughout the region as it does so. It will also bring a colder air mass to New England Tuesday night, allowing for low temperatures a few to several degrees cooler than the previous night. After the low departs, could see some showers in northern zones Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the rest of the region should remain dry. The breezy winds will continue into Wednesday as high pressure building in from the west impinges on the departing low. High pressure continues to build into the eastern U.S. through Thursday and it should keep things on the dry side here. Forecast confidence drops for Friday, however, as the latest global models are not in agreement on the development of a low pressure system for the northeast U.S...so will go with slight chance to chance PoPs for Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions expected today as low pressure passes by to our east with mid and high level cloudiness. Some lower clouds remain possible over eastern areas, closest to the track of the offshore low along the Midcoast region of Maine as well as portions of New Hampshire near an inverted trough. These conditions will persist into this evening before drier air filters into all areas. VFR conditions expected on Sunday with some upslope cloudiness in the mountains. Long Term...Widespread MVFR conditions expected Sunday night in lower ceilings as an area of showers/rain approaches from the south. Monday will see LEB/CON/MHT/PSM/PWM likely down to IFR restrictions, at least for periods, in those showers/rain; AUG and RKD may also see IFR at times early Monday evening. Chances for showers continue Monday night into Tuesday, primarily for HIE/LEB/AUG. VFR conditions generally expected at all terminals through the remainder of the period. Northwesterly winds will be gusty at times on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...High pressure remains in control of the Gulf of Maine with relatively light winds and seas holding through the weekend. Long Term...Low pressure passes to the south of the waters on Monday and do not expect any significant impacts. Another low passes over the waters Tuesday night, but again, no significant impacts expected. In fact, Sunday night looks like the worst conditions on the outer waters with southwest winds gusting to 20 kt and seas building to 4 ft ahead of the low. Seas then expected to build to 4 ft over the outer waters again Monday night.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ025>028. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Watson

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