Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 190130 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 930 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west through Tuesday and will gradually shift offshore south of the region on Wednesday, which will allow for a southwest wind to warm things up a bit. Low pressure will move off the New England coast on Thursday night while a cold front approaches from the west. High pressure builds in late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 930pm Update... Continued cool and quiet tonight. Skies have cleared out across most of the forecast area, with southwestern NH being the exception. Temperatures have fallen into the 20s at most locations on their way down into the teens and single digits above zero. Will make minor updates to account for current mesonet trends. 620pm Update... Mostly clear skies to the north with some broken skies over southern NH this evening, pretty much as expected. Expect winds to diminish and become light and variable over the next few hours. Temperatures should start dropping quickly as well as radiational cooling gets going. No major changes to the forecast package. Previous Discussion... High pressure will gradually move into the area tonight as a short wave trough moves on across the region. This short wave may bring along with it a period of mostly cloudy skies tonight across southern zones. Otherwise, a good radiational cooling night should be had in the north, with some areas across northern NH getting down close to zero tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains over the northeastern states Tuesday and Tuesday night with fair weather expected. A second weak short wave trough may allow for another period of bkn clouds across southern zones Tuesday afternoon, but no precipitation is expected at this time. Highs should get to around 40 across the south Tuesday with 30s in the mountains. Another radiational cooling night should take shape Tuesday night allowing for cold temps once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through day 10. Try as it may Pacific energy has failed to permanently break down the stubborn ridge over the western CONUS. This appears to be the case yet again as the ridge centered over the intermountain west at 12z Wednesday weakens and gradually translate east into the Great Lakes and mid Atlantic region by the weekend. That leads to rising heights and temperatures briefly recovering to above average values for the second half of the weekend. By Tuesday and Wednesday the western CONUS ridge has reestablished itself with a downstream trough once again here in the east. In the dailies...high pressure slides offshore to our south Wednesday. Low pressure will drag a trailing cold front across the area Thursday accompanied by rain and snow showers. Some disagreement exists between models regarding frontal timing as well as secondary low development late Thursday and Thursday night. Depending on timing and track of secondary low...some accumulating wet snow may occur Thursday night and early Friday. Behind this system...cold cyclonic flow will produce clouds and scattered snow and rain showers Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds by to our south for Sunday and Monday. A backdoor cold front will likely settle south across the area on Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday night with light winds. Long Term... Thu...MVFR in -shra/-shsn. Areas of IFR psb Thu night in -sn. Southerly wind gusting to 25 KT. Fri - Sat AM...Areas of MVFR -shra/-shsn. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions on the waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night. Long Term... Wed PM - Sat...SCA`s likely...with Gales psb outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Pohl

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