National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 230155
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
955 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
With onshore flow continuing across parts of the area more fog
is expected tonight. This will follow right into a cooler cloudier
day than today on Friday with a warm front lifting through New
England. More fog will develop along the coast Friday night
before a warmer day arrives on Saturday. A cold front will cross
the region and usher in cooler air for Sunday. An increasingly
unsettled weather pattern is looking likely for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE... Made minor adjustments to temperatures,
dew points, sky, and wind grids based on recent surface
observations and satellite imagery. High resolution model
guidance continues to show the possibility for isolated to
scattered shower activity late tonight through around dawn on
Friday, especially across northern zones and therefore left
slight chance PoPs in from 05-11Z. Expecting patchy fog to
develop across coastal New Hampshire and coastal Maine through
around 12Z Friday. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

710 PM...A couple of minor things going on in
the wx tonight, and made some adjustment for these. First is
some coastal stratus, bot no fog as yet, moving onshore from
around Casco Bay and southward into coastal NH. However there
are are stratocu moving in from the west, as well so any
clearing across srn NH will be short-lives this evening. I
suspect as temps slowly fall this evening and Tds fall even more
slowly, some fog will develop in the areas just inland on the
NH and SW ME coast, but not expecting anything widespread or
particularly dense. Finally, as WAA moves through the wrn and
nrn zones tonight could see some spkls or light showers moving
through, especially around and after midnight. Otherwise, most
other spots will stay mainly cloudy.

Some very light showers are possible along the mid level warm
front draped across the Nrn half of the forecast area. Still
plenty of dry air lurking around H8...evidenced by 3 degree
dewpoint at MWN...and so much of the radar echo is evaporating
before reaching the ground.

Weak trof is also draped across Srn NH into SWrn ME...and that
is allowing onshore winds on the E side. This is bringing marine
fog and stratus back into coastal areas S of PWM. I have brought
areas of fog back into parts of the coast...mainly S of last
night...into the early morning before it clears out from the N
again. Right now hi-res guidance is not particularly bullish on
dense fog...but I cannot rule out patchy dense fog in
places...especially near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally cloudy and coolish weather expected Fri with warm
front lingering nearby. I do not expect much in the way of
showers...but cannot rule out a stray one or two in the higher
terrain.

Fog looks to be a little more likely and widespread Fri night. I
have brought areas of fog into coastal zones based on higher
resolution visibility guidance. This would be a period to keep
an eye on for dense fog being widespread enough for an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions remain in good
agreement on the long wave pattern through late next week. A
northern stream impulse will drive a cold front across the area
Saturday accompanied by clouds and scattered showers. Rising
heights and high pressure with cooler and drier air follows for
Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday...digging Pacific energy
will carve out a deep trough to our west complete with split flow
and a dominant northern stream. Low pressure will approach from
the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. The low will
pass to our west dragging a warm front across the area during the
day Monday. Thermal profiles suggest a brief period of snow is
possible Monday morning near the international border in advance
of the warm front. The trailing cold front crosses the area Monday
night and Tuesday with clouds and showers. The front will likely
stall nearby through mid week as it becomes nearly parallel to the
upper flow with a continuation of unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions currently will give way to MVFR CIGs
and local IFR CIGs across Srn NH. IFR CIGs most likely at PSM
and MHT...and perhaps as far N as PWM and CON. These look to be
limited to the overnight and will lift towards early morning as
drier air moves in. Conditions expected to improve to VFR Fri.
Another round of more widespread IFR and LIFR conditions is
expected Fri night. LEB and HIE are most likely to be spared
from low CIGs.

Long Term...

Sat...Sct MVFR in -SHRA.

Mon...MVFR in SHRA...with AM -SHSN/SHRA psb vicinity of the
international border. Areas of IFR in marine stratus and fog psb
Mon AM.

Tue...Areas of MVFR in cigs and -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA remain in effect as swell steadily builds
radiating outward from Hurricane Epsilon. Areas of dense fog are
expected tonight across the Srn coastal waters and again Fri
night across the nearshore waters especially.

Long Term...

Sat...SCA`s conditions are likely for large swell outside the
bays.

Sat Night - Sun...SCA`s conditions are likely for wind and large
swell outside the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Tubbs