National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 250300
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1100 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast are tonight. Colder
air will settle over the area Monday and Tuesday. High pressure
will move east of northern New England Wednesday which will
begin the warming trend. A cold front will move into the area
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1100 PM Update...
Quick update to tweak pops and wx grids...mainly to match up
better with surrounding offices. Cold front continue to
gradually drop south late this evening with a few snow showers
beginning to show up in northern zones. Expect this activity to
diminish as the front contines to drop south. No major changes
planned to current forecast.


800 PM Update...
Weak cold front continues to slowly drop south into northern
zones early this evening. Some snow showers activity showing up
in surface obs north of the border and this activity will
continue to diminish as it sags into northern zones late this
evening. Farther south looking for variable high clouds through
midnight. Have adjusted pops in northern zones to account for
slower southward progress of snow shower activity. Have also
tweaked area temps/tds. No other changes planned attm.


Prev Disc...
Nice and mild across the forecast area currently...with
downsloping winds helping to boost temps well into the 50s. A
cold front will sag into the area tonight. With flow and forcing
mainly parallel to the boundary...it will be slow going and not
much lift. A narrow band of sprinkles or flurries is most
likely...especially given the dry low level air. I have some
slight chance PoP for tonight...but really not expecting much in
the way of measurable precip...mostly enough to notice
flakes/rain drops on the windshield or in the flood lights.
Coldest readings will be behind the front early in the morning
Mon...with areas S of the front struggling to get to near
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler air expected Mon as CAA behind the front continues. Deep
mixing to around H8 will only support highs topping out in the
30s to near 40. Warmest temps will be over Srn NH...where
readings near 45 are possible. Also looking at deep dry
air...with forecast soundings indicating dewpoints closer to 0
degrees than the near 10 degrees from some guidance. High
pressure noses in Mon night and may allow for better decoupling
and much colder overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Colder air moves into the region for Tuesday which should be the
coldest day of the next 7. High pressure will move off the coast
Wednesday turning the wind to the south and southwest beginning
the warming trend. There are some differences for the weekend as
both GFS and ECMwf bring a cold front down over the northern
portions of the forecast area late in the day Friday. There
could be some light precipitation especially in northern zones
Friday. This front will certainly have an impact on temperatures
depending on how far south it progresses. For now expect both
Friday and Saturday to be warm days for southern locations with
temperatures flirting with 60. Expect Saturday to be cooler in
the mountains with high temperatures in the mid 40s as the front
will bisect the forecast area. The GFS has the front hanging up
in central Maine Saturday as low pressure moves northeast along
it and drives the cold front off the coast Sunday morning. The
ECMWF on the other hand moves the front north Sunday keeping the
entire forecast area warm before low pressure moves through
Monday morning bringing in colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the period.
Any remaining gusts near 20kt will diminish around sunset. Cold
front drops thru the area overnight. Mainly an increase in high
clouds though a -SHSN is possible. Confidence was too low in any
restrictions to VSBY to include in TAFs. SKC and NNW winds Mon
into Mon night.

Long Term...VFR expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...W flow turns Nly behind a cold front tonight. Wind
gusts are expected to remain below 25kt. Conditions remain just
below SCA thresholds into Mon...and no headlines are expected.

Long Term...Winds and seas will be increasing as a southwest
wind develops over the waters late in the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$