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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 142342
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
642 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will remain overhead New England tonight,
bringing potentially record cold temperatures to the region.
The next coastal storm will arrive late Thursday night continuing
into Friday bringing snowfall to Maine and New Hampshire. An
upper level disturbance will remain over the region Saturday
before Canadian high pressure builds into the region Sunday. An
Arctic front will cross the region Monday, followed by another
weak disturbance midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
640 PM Update...Just a few minor changes to the going forecast
based on latest trends in observational and mesoscale model
data. Winds will continue to diminish this evening, potentially
setting the area up for record low temperatures overnight.

Previously...

A deep dome of arctic high pres settles over the region tonight
allowing winds to diminish and become near calm by later
this evening. With clear skies and winds becoming calm, a good
3-6 hour window of radiational cooling expected later tonight.
With fresh snow cover the mountains temps should plummet to
below zero in many spots. Elsewhere in areas where there is no
snow cover, single numbers to lower teens can be expected. This
should set some new record low temps for the date.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A sunny start to Thursday but overunning WAA clouds will
overspread the area from south to north in the afternoon and
thicken by early evening. Models all agree on an initial shot of
stg WAA overrunning the deep cold dome over the region. This
will allow an initial band of moderate to hvy snow to develop by
evening over southern areas of NH and quickly spread north and
east into northern NH and all of srn/central ME. Considering the
depth of the arctic air mass and very dry air mass allowing
substantial evapo cooling, all snow will be forecast with no
mixing. A winter storm watch will be issued for these southern
areas beginning in the evening with the watch extended to the
north over all other areas after midnight. After the initial
shot of WAA snow there may be a brief break in the pcpn toward
morning until the low-mid level low with its pcpn shield tracks
northeast to off the ME/NH coast Thu.

Overall going with the record cold temps tonight with most
guidance being warmer. Used a blend of model guid for temps
Thu/Thu night. If anything temps will tend to be lowered
further Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z models in relatively good agreement with the overall track
of the upcoming coastal system with near record cold in place at
the beginning portion of the long range forecast.

Arctic air initially in place Friday morning over northern New
England will allow for a classic Nor`easter track along or near
the Cape Cold Canal around daybreak. A slow commute is expected.
Dynamic cooling aloft will continue as the H5 upper low shift
north and east. H7 low to remain along or just south of our
forecast area, keeping southern area in locally heavy
precipitation. Several sites across our region will remain in a
favorable dendritic growth zone.

Snow may mix with sleet and rain along and near the coastline
during the midday and afternoon hours. However, this will be
after the majority of the precipitation has already fallen and
accumulated.

System exits to our east Friday night with mountain snow showers
continuing, especially over the west, northwest facing high
terrain.

The atmosphere will be allow to modify on Saturday ahead of the
next approaching strong cold front with H8 readings near around
-4C. Snow showers may cross the region with the passage of this
 front Saturday night leading to a seasonably cool day with
 sunshine and Canadian high pressure on Sunday.

Much more cold air will be building to our northwest on Monday
as an Arctic front crosses the region during the afternoon
hours. Snow squalls may accompany this system as low pressure
develops over our region and shifts east. A weak weather
disturbance will then shift east from the Great Lakes region
midweek next week as below normal temperatures continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight and thu. Conds lowering to IFR in snow over
srn NH Thu evening overspreading the rest of the region by
03-06z.

Long Term...IFR with areas of LIFR in RA, PL, SN and fog. Sfc
wind gusts to 25 kt on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds expected to gradually diminish this evening
into the overnight hours. Have taken down the gale for the bays
and the southern ocean zones. The rest will likely follow suit
later this evening. Light winds for Thu but gales will likely
be needed thu night once again.

Long Term...Gale warnings will likely be needed once again for
Thursday night into Friday as low pressure passes through the
Gulf of Maine.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-025>028.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for MEZ018-023-024.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for NHZ001>006.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for NHZ007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ151-153-
     154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE