Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 031932 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 332 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... There will be some scattered showers this evening as low pressure tracks across northern New England. We will see the temperature warm up behind it for Thursday and Friday with showers returning Friday. A cold front Saturday morning may be accompanied by another round of showers and thunderstorms, but it will usher in cooler and drier air through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening. Dynamics are relatively weak with this system and there is not access to deep moisture. However, a few scattered showers can be expected for the first half of the night. Over southern New Hampshire, modest instability will remain in place allowing the potential for a couple stray thunderstorms. Partial clearing will continue after midnight. There is a low chance for patchy fog depending on the amount of clearing. However, confidence on this is low at this time and we have not added lowering visibilities in the public or aviation forecasts. Temperatures will be seasonable for this portion of early June with 40s in the mountains for overnight lows and 50s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface winds kick into a more westerly direction early Thursday. This wind direction, along with warm air advection will allow for a significant increase in temperatures during the day. H8 readings in the +10C to +14C range along with good mixing will allow surface temperatures to climb through the 70s across much of Maine and northern New Hampshire with lower 80s over southern New Hampshire. A southwesterly gradient will allow for onshore winds along the Midcoast during the afternoon. This may keep some communities in the 60s during the day. Models are diverging for Thursday night in regards to a possible short wave passing by to our south. Have increased some cloud cover over far southern areas during the night, but have kept any chance of showers to our south. Noticed the Euro continues to have some potential convective feedback during this period with other mesoscale models keeping any light precipitation to our south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement on the long wave pattern through the first half of next week. We begin the period with zonal flow and a mean jet position along the U.S. - Canadian border. Pacific energy quickly carves out an upper trough over the western third of the CONUS...with a downstream ridge over the central CONUS and a trough here in the east. By early next week...the ridge begins to break down as the remnants of a tropical system track north into the central CONUS and we transition to a broad trough across the Great Lakes and New England. As the upper trough takes shape across the region...above normal temperatures will be replaced by slightly below normal values by the end of the weekend. In the dailies...Hot and increasingly humid Friday in the southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front with a scattered late day shower or thunderstorm possible over the interior. The cold front crosses the area early Saturday with showers and scattered Thunderstorms. We remain unsettled behind the front on Saturday with a passing shortwave impulse and associated secondary front producing clouds and more scattered convection. Instability and wind field on Saturday suggest the potential for more organized convection with a few strong storms possible. We`ll continue to see some clouds and a risk of showers on Sunday with the upper trough overhead. High pressure and dry air builds in from the northwest late Sunday into Tuesday with mild days and seasonably cool nights expected. By Wednesday...a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes bringing an increasing chance of showers for the mid week period. The remnants of Cristobal will likely be entrained in this system. However...to what degree if any this impacts QPF and improves our chances for a wetting rain remains to be seen. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Ceilings remaining MVFR at times with localized IFR conditions in the mountains this evening. Otherwise, ceiling will lift overnight with VFR conditions on Thursday and Thursday night. Long Term... Fri PM - Sat...Sct MVFR in SHRA/TSRA. Sat night - Sun...Sct MVFR psb -SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term...Weak low pressure tracks along a subtle warm front and into the Gulf of Maine later today. Since the pressure gradient remains weak, winds will be mainly light and variable, becoming westerly and then southwesterly with time through Thursday. Seas will remain below SCA thresholds. Long Term... Fri PM - Sat...SCA`s psb outside the bays. && .EQUIPMENT...The WFO GYX WSR-88D RADAR is back up and running. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schwibs

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