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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 231126
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
726 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains largely in control over northern New
England while Ophelia remains well to the south as the system
moves inland over the Mid Atlantic. Some showers from the
northern fringe of Ophelia may clip far southern areas at times
late today into Sunday night. The remnants of Ophelia exit into
the Atlantic Monday with high pressure becoming centered over
New England through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
725 AM...Minor update to reflect observational trends.

Previously...

While high clouds are obscuring the satellite view this
morning...they are not thick enough to prevent radiational
cooling and fairly widespread valley fog in the usual spots.
Based on yesterday morning and the fact that cloud cover may
limit mixing early on...I have fog lifting between 9 and 10 am.

Clouds lower and thicken the most over southern NH...and this
will keep temps coolest there thru the afternoon.
However...forecasts continue to trend drier and anything more
than sprinkles may not move into the forecast area much before
midnight. So I have trimmed the northern edge of the PoP
forecast.

The other addition to the forecast was an area of moderate rip
risk for York County and the Seacoast of NH. A small long period
southeast swell continues and winds have been persistently
onshore for the last couple of days. As winds increase to a
steady 10 kt later today I think that could lead to a greater
likelihood of rip currents.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight rain showers are more likely to push into southern
NH...but with plenty of dry air to contend with the cut off
should remain rather sharp. Cloud shield should be a bit thicker
though...and so temps will be a couple degrees warmer than what
we see this morning. With fog a little more uncertain I have
capped it at patchy wording as well.

Sun a series of S/WV trofs dropping thru Atlantic Canada will
effectively stop Tropical Storm Ophelia from progressing any
further north. Rain will become even more scattered as a result.
Cloud cover will once again invert the temps across the
area...with warmest readings farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remnants of Ophelia will skirt south of New England Sunday
night. High pressure over eastern Canada will build south into New
England Monday and will remain anchored over the area through the
end of next week. This will bring a prolonged stretch of dry weather
with mostly sunny days and cool nights. As the high pressure
descends upon the area early next week night time temperatures look
to be seasonably cool with some frost potential across the north.
Heights start to builds over the Northeast around the middle of next
week allowing temperatures to moderate. Highs will generally be in
the 60s Monday and Tuesday and climb closer to 70 degrees by
Wednesday. The 00Z model suite as well as the 8 to 14 day outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center suggest mostly dry and mild
weather will continue beyond the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...LIFR in valley fog this morning...along with a
small patch of marine fog/stratus in the lower Kennebec Valley.
This is all expected to lift after sunrise...with LIFR
conditions lingering in the CT River Valley as late as 14z at
LEB. Generally VFR conditions expected today. There is a chance
of local MVFR or lower conditions in SHRA across southern
NH...but confidence is low enough that I have not included in
the TAF. Valley fog is possible again tonight in the northern
valleys...including HIE and LEB. High pressure noses a little
further in the forecast area Sun...and generally VFR expected.

Long Term...Northeasterly gusts to around 20 kts will be possible
for coastal TAF sites Monday into Tuesday morning. Conditions will
remain VFR for much of next week, other than night time valley fog
likely bringing restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will start to increase today as the
coastal waters are sandwiched between high pressure building to
the north and Tropical Storm Ophelia to the south. Breezy east
northeast winds may not ever reach SCA thresholds...but seas
will build close to 5 ft especially south of Cape Elizabeth.
This is expected to continue thru Sun night.

Long Term...Northeasterly flow between high pressure over eastern
Canada and the remnants of Ophelia passing south of New England
could bring wind gusts to around 25 kts Monday into Monday night.
High pressure then settles over New England through the middle of
next week with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter