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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 211440
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
940 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today and crests over the
region tomorrow with mainly clear skies. A warming trend
develops for the second half of the week. A weak cold front will
cross through Maine and New Hampshire Friday. Low pressure will
cross just south of New England over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the going
forecast this morning based on latest trends in observational
data.

Previously...

6am.. Have adjusted to current temperatures which as expected
have quite a range. South of the mountains the valleys such as
Fryeburg have continued to drop with mid teens below zero.
Meanwhile the upslope clouds have come in and areas such as
Whitefield have started to warm.
prev disc...
It`s a race to the bottom for temperatures this morning as
clear cold high pressure along with fresh snow creates an
excellent set up for radiational cooling. On nights like tonight
just a few hundred feet of elevation or less can make a huge
difference in temperature and that is reflected in the
observations. So far -17 below at Lancaster, NH is the coldest
but we still have a few more hours to go to hit 20 below. Have
adjusted the temperatures down for this morning but it will be
quite hit and miss as the valley bottoms drop like a rock.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
For today look for high pressure to continue to dominate making
for sunny skies. The sun and calm winds as the high crests
overhead will make it feel warmer than the expected low 20s
south to teens north.

Tonight the clouds associated with a short wave currently north
of lake Superior will move into the northern portion of the
forecast area. While only a very slight chance for some flurries
in the mountains the clouds should be enough to keep
temperatures in that region considerably warmer than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very quiet conditions will continue for much of the work week. A
warm trend will continue on Thursday as a large East Coast ridge
remains over the region. H8 temperatures of around +2C will
allow for daytime highs to reach the 30s in all areas.

Clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling
Thursday night. Overnight mins will mostly be in the teens.

On Friday, a cold front will slip through the region. It will be
relatively unnoticed and moisture starved. Temperatures will
fluctuate very little with the passage of this front.

00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in relatively
good agreement this morning from run to run. A slow moving,
cutoff low pressure system will allow for intensification of a
coastal system Saturday along the Mid Atlantic coastline. Models
solutions continue to then diverge somewhat thereafter with the
GFS and GEFS tracking the surface low the furthest north,
across the southern tip of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. The
Canadian and Euro solutions remain further to the south which
appear to be a reasonable solution.

Will begin to highlight this system in our outlook and DSS
products. With this type of track, much of the precipitation
should be in the form of snow as drier air pours in from the
lower levels out of the north. There still remains some
uncertainty as to the speed of the system tracking underneath
New England.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions with SKC as high pressure slowly
builds into the region. A few clouds may enter the northern
zones by tonight but remain VFR.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions through the work week.
Conditions deteriorate this weekend as ceilings and
visibilities may lower with precipitation entering the region
this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Calm winds and seas over the waters the next few
days as high pressure crosses the region.

Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds as
high pressure dominates the region. Gale force northeasterly
winds are possible this weekend as low pressure tracks south of
the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A number of ice jams are now in place on area rivers including
the Kennebec between Augusta and Hallowell, Sugar river in
Claremont NH and Swift River at Roxbury, ME. Currently no
flooding impacts however ice jams can move at any point and
interests near these rivers should pay close attention.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$