Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250300 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1100 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the forecast are tonight. Colder air will settle over the area Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will move east of northern New England Wednesday which will begin the warming trend. A cold front will move into the area Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1100 PM Update... Quick update to tweak pops and wx grids...mainly to match up better with surrounding offices. Cold front continue to gradually drop south late this evening with a few snow showers beginning to show up in northern zones. Expect this activity to diminish as the front contines to drop south. No major changes planned to current forecast. 800 PM Update... Weak cold front continues to slowly drop south into northern zones early this evening. Some snow showers activity showing up in surface obs north of the border and this activity will continue to diminish as it sags into northern zones late this evening. Farther south looking for variable high clouds through midnight. Have adjusted pops in northern zones to account for slower southward progress of snow shower activity. Have also tweaked area temps/tds. No other changes planned attm. Prev Disc... Nice and mild across the forecast area currently...with downsloping winds helping to boost temps well into the 50s. A cold front will sag into the area tonight. With flow and forcing mainly parallel to the boundary...it will be slow going and not much lift. A narrow band of sprinkles or flurries is most likely...especially given the dry low level air. I have some slight chance PoP for tonight...but really not expecting much in the way of measurable precip...mostly enough to notice flakes/rain drops on the windshield or in the flood lights. Coldest readings will be behind the front early in the morning Mon...with areas S of the front struggling to get to near freezing. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cooler air expected Mon as CAA behind the front continues. Deep mixing to around H8 will only support highs topping out in the 30s to near 40. Warmest temps will be over Srn NH...where readings near 45 are possible. Also looking at deep dry air...with forecast soundings indicating dewpoints closer to 0 degrees than the near 10 degrees from some guidance. High pressure noses in Mon night and may allow for better decoupling and much colder overnight lows. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Colder air moves into the region for Tuesday which should be the coldest day of the next 7. High pressure will move off the coast Wednesday turning the wind to the south and southwest beginning the warming trend. There are some differences for the weekend as both GFS and ECMwf bring a cold front down over the northern portions of the forecast area late in the day Friday. There could be some light precipitation especially in northern zones Friday. This front will certainly have an impact on temperatures depending on how far south it progresses. For now expect both Friday and Saturday to be warm days for southern locations with temperatures flirting with 60. Expect Saturday to be cooler in the mountains with high temperatures in the mid 40s as the front will bisect the forecast area. The GFS has the front hanging up in central Maine Saturday as low pressure moves northeast along it and drives the cold front off the coast Sunday morning. The ECMWF on the other hand moves the front north Sunday keeping the entire forecast area warm before low pressure moves through Monday morning bringing in colder air. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the period. Any remaining gusts near 20kt will diminish around sunset. Cold front drops thru the area overnight. Mainly an increase in high clouds though a -SHSN is possible. Confidence was too low in any restrictions to VSBY to include in TAFs. SKC and NNW winds Mon into Mon night. Long Term...VFR expected Tuesday through Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...W flow turns Nly behind a cold front tonight. Wind gusts are expected to remain below 25kt. Conditions remain just below SCA thresholds into Mon...and no headlines are expected. Long Term...Winds and seas will be increasing as a southwest wind develops over the waters late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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