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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080738
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
338 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will pass south and east of New England this
weekend, but otherwise high pressure nearby will keep
conditions fairly quiet. Another area of low pressure will pass
to our south on Monday with widespread light rain expected. An
upper level low pressure system will pass over the region
Tuesday with high pressure building in its wake Wednesday and
Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Cyclogenesis will continue well off the Mid Atlantic coastline
this morning as latest satellite imagery shows a center of low
pressure hundreds of miles east of New Jersey. There will be a
chance of showers over New Hampshire later this afternoon within
the closest proximity of an inverted trough extending from this
offshore system. The latest HREF displays this low cloud cover
mainly over western portions of our forecast area. Elsewhere mid
and high level moisture will extend over the region.

Temperatures will be very uniform from north to south with mid
to upper 50s in most all areas. The coolest areas will be along
the Midcoast region of Maine once again in closest proximity to
the developing offshore low.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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A westerly gradient will develop tonight. This will prevent
frost from forming in all areas. Clearing will take place from
southwest to northeast during the overnight hours.

A small ridge of high pressure will quickly cross the region on
Sunday. This will allow for a dry and mild day. H8 temperatures
around +2C with sunshine and good mixing will allow for highs
in the 60s. An offshore wind will allow for the warmest
temperatures to be along and near the coastline. Clouds will
begin to increase late in the day as yet another system
approaches the region from the southwest.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Overview...Not much change in the last 24 hours, rather low-impact
weather is expected in the long term, though there will be some
chances for much-needed precipitation. The best chances for that
will be Monday morning as a warm front pushes into southern New
England...and then on Tuesday when an upper level low crosses the
region. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal over the
period.

Impacts...Minimal.

Forecast Details...By Sunday evening, an area of low pressure is
expected to be located over the Ohio Valley with a warm front
extending east toward the mid-Atlantic region. The warm front will
attempt to push as far north as our region as the low tracks east-
northeast, but it looks like it will only make it to southern New
England. However, we can expect some precipitation from this system,
especially over southern NH and southwestern ME. Rainfall looks to
begin after midnight and continue through Monday morning before
tapering off as the low moves off the coast to our south. Still not
expecting widespread amounts of more than a quarter inch, but it is
possible that some southern NH locations see a bit more than that.

An upper level low then pushes west toward New England from Canada
Monday night. Unlike some of the other upper lows we have dealt with
this spring, this one moves right on through Maine late Tuesday into
early Tuesday night...generating some showers in the mountains and
breezy winds throughout the region as it does so. It will also bring
a colder air mass to New England Tuesday night, allowing for low
temperatures a few to several degrees cooler than the previous
night.

After the low departs, could see some showers in northern
zones Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the rest of the region
should remain dry. The breezy winds will continue into Wednesday as
high pressure building in from the west impinges on the departing
low. High pressure continues to build into the eastern U.S. through
Thursday and it should keep things on the dry side here. Forecast
confidence drops for Friday, however, as the latest global models
are not in agreement on the development of a low pressure system
for the northeast U.S...so will go with slight chance to chance
PoPs for Friday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions expected today as low pressure
passes by to our east with mid and high level cloudiness. Some
lower clouds remain possible over eastern areas, closest to the
track of the offshore low along the Midcoast region of Maine as
well as portions of New Hampshire near an inverted trough. These
conditions will persist into this evening before drier air
filters into all areas. VFR conditions expected on Sunday with
some upslope cloudiness in the mountains.

Long Term...Widespread MVFR conditions expected Sunday night in lower
ceilings as an area of showers/rain approaches from the south.
Monday will see LEB/CON/MHT/PSM/PWM likely down to IFR restrictions,
at least for periods, in those showers/rain; AUG and RKD may
also see IFR at times early Monday evening. Chances for showers
continue Monday night into Tuesday, primarily for HIE/LEB/AUG.
VFR conditions generally expected at all terminals through the
remainder of the period. Northwesterly winds will be gusty at
times on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...High pressure remains in control of the Gulf of
Maine with relatively light winds and seas holding through the
weekend.

Long Term...Low pressure passes to the south of the waters on
Monday and do not expect any significant impacts. Another low
passes over the waters Tuesday night, but again, no significant
impacts expected. In fact, Sunday night looks like the worst
conditions on the outer waters with southwest winds gusting to
20 kt and seas building to 4 ft ahead of the low. Seas then
expected to build to 4 ft over the outer waters again Monday
night.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ025>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Watson