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000
FXUS61 KGYX 031932
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
332 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be some scattered showers this evening as low
pressure tracks across northern New England. We will see the
temperature warm up behind it for Thursday and Friday with
showers returning Friday. A cold front Saturday morning may be
accompanied by another round of showers and thunderstorms, but
it will usher in cooler and drier air through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region this
evening. Dynamics are relatively weak with this system and there
is not access to deep moisture. However, a few scattered showers
can be expected for the first half of the night. Over southern
New Hampshire, modest instability will remain in place allowing
the potential for a couple stray thunderstorms.

Partial clearing will continue after midnight. There is a low
chance for patchy fog depending on the amount of clearing.
However, confidence on this is low at this time and we have not
added lowering visibilities in the public or aviation forecasts.

Temperatures will be seasonable for this portion of early June
with 40s in the mountains for overnight lows and 50s in the
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface winds kick into a more westerly direction early
Thursday. This wind direction, along with warm air advection
will allow for a significant increase in temperatures during the
day. H8 readings in the +10C to +14C range along with good
mixing will allow surface temperatures to climb through the 70s
across much of Maine and northern New Hampshire with lower 80s
over southern New Hampshire.

A southwesterly gradient will allow for onshore winds along the
Midcoast during the afternoon. This may keep some communities in
the 60s during the day.

Models are diverging for Thursday night in regards to a possible
short wave passing by to our south. Have increased some cloud
cover over far southern areas during the night, but have kept
any chance of showers to our south. Noticed the Euro continues
to have some potential convective feedback during this period
with other mesoscale models keeping any light precipitation to
our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in good
agreement on the long wave pattern through the first half of next
week. We begin the period with zonal flow and a mean jet position
along the U.S. - Canadian border. Pacific energy quickly carves
out an upper trough over the western third of the CONUS...with a
downstream ridge over the central CONUS and a trough here in the
east. By early next week...the ridge begins to break down as the
remnants of a tropical system track north into the central CONUS
and we transition to a broad trough across the Great Lakes and New
England. As the upper trough takes shape across the region...above
normal temperatures will be replaced by slightly below normal values
by the end of the weekend. In the dailies...Hot and increasingly
humid Friday in the southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front with a scattered late day shower or thunderstorm possible
over the interior. The cold front crosses the area early
Saturday with showers and scattered Thunderstorms. We remain
unsettled behind the front on Saturday with a passing shortwave
impulse and associated secondary front producing clouds and more
scattered convection. Instability and wind field on Saturday
suggest the potential for more organized convection with a few
strong storms possible. We`ll continue to see some clouds and a
risk of showers on Sunday with the upper trough overhead. High
pressure and dry air builds in from the northwest late Sunday
into Tuesday with mild days and seasonably cool nights expected.
By Wednesday...a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes
bringing an increasing chance of showers for the mid week
period. The remnants of Cristobal will likely be entrained in
this system. However...to what degree if any this impacts QPF
and improves our chances for a wetting rain remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Ceilings remaining MVFR at times with localized IFR
conditions in the mountains this evening. Otherwise, ceiling
will lift overnight with VFR conditions on Thursday and Thursday
night.

Long Term...

Fri PM - Sat...Sct MVFR in SHRA/TSRA.

Sat night - Sun...Sct MVFR psb -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Weak low pressure tracks along a subtle warm front
and into the Gulf of Maine later today. Since the pressure
gradient remains weak, winds will be mainly light and variable,
becoming westerly and then southwesterly with time through
Thursday. Seas will remain below SCA thresholds.


Long Term...

Fri PM - Sat...SCA`s psb outside the bays.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...The WFO GYX WSR-88D RADAR is back up and running.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schwibs