Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230155 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 955 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... With onshore flow continuing across parts of the area more fog is expected tonight. This will follow right into a cooler cloudier day than today on Friday with a warm front lifting through New England. More fog will develop along the coast Friday night before a warmer day arrives on Saturday. A cold front will cross the region and usher in cooler air for Sunday. An increasingly unsettled weather pattern is looking likely for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1000 PM UPDATE... Made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points, sky, and wind grids based on recent surface observations and satellite imagery. High resolution model guidance continues to show the possibility for isolated to scattered shower activity late tonight through around dawn on Friday, especially across northern zones and therefore left slight chance PoPs in from 05-11Z. Expecting patchy fog to develop across coastal New Hampshire and coastal Maine through around 12Z Friday. The rest of the forecast remains on track. 710 PM...A couple of minor things going on in the wx tonight, and made some adjustment for these. First is some coastal stratus, bot no fog as yet, moving onshore from around Casco Bay and southward into coastal NH. However there are are stratocu moving in from the west, as well so any clearing across srn NH will be short-lives this evening. I suspect as temps slowly fall this evening and Tds fall even more slowly, some fog will develop in the areas just inland on the NH and SW ME coast, but not expecting anything widespread or particularly dense. Finally, as WAA moves through the wrn and nrn zones tonight could see some spkls or light showers moving through, especially around and after midnight. Otherwise, most other spots will stay mainly cloudy. Some very light showers are possible along the mid level warm front draped across the Nrn half of the forecast area. Still plenty of dry air lurking around H8...evidenced by 3 degree dewpoint at MWN...and so much of the radar echo is evaporating before reaching the ground. Weak trof is also draped across Srn NH into SWrn ME...and that is allowing onshore winds on the E side. This is bringing marine fog and stratus back into coastal areas S of PWM. I have brought areas of fog back into parts of the coast...mainly S of last night...into the early morning before it clears out from the N again. Right now hi-res guidance is not particularly bullish on dense fog...but I cannot rule out patchy dense fog in places...especially near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Generally cloudy and coolish weather expected Fri with warm front lingering nearby. I do not expect much in the way of showers...but cannot rule out a stray one or two in the higher terrain. Fog looks to be a little more likely and widespread Fri night. I have brought areas of fog into coastal zones based on higher resolution visibility guidance. This would be a period to keep an eye on for dense fog being widespread enough for an advisory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The ensemble and deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement on the long wave pattern through late next week. A northern stream impulse will drive a cold front across the area Saturday accompanied by clouds and scattered showers. Rising heights and high pressure with cooler and drier air follows for Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday...digging Pacific energy will carve out a deep trough to our west complete with split flow and a dominant northern stream. Low pressure will approach from the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. The low will pass to our west dragging a warm front across the area during the day Monday. Thermal profiles suggest a brief period of snow is possible Monday morning near the international border in advance of the warm front. The trailing cold front crosses the area Monday night and Tuesday with clouds and showers. The front will likely stall nearby through mid week as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow with a continuation of unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions currently will give way to MVFR CIGs and local IFR CIGs across Srn NH. IFR CIGs most likely at PSM and MHT...and perhaps as far N as PWM and CON. These look to be limited to the overnight and will lift towards early morning as drier air moves in. Conditions expected to improve to VFR Fri. Another round of more widespread IFR and LIFR conditions is expected Fri night. LEB and HIE are most likely to be spared from low CIGs. Long Term... Sat...Sct MVFR in -SHRA. Mon...MVFR in SHRA...with AM -SHSN/SHRA psb vicinity of the international border. Areas of IFR in marine stratus and fog psb Mon AM. Tue...Areas of MVFR in cigs and -SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA remain in effect as swell steadily builds radiating outward from Hurricane Epsilon. Areas of dense fog are expected tonight across the Srn coastal waters and again Fri night across the nearshore waters especially. Long Term... Sat...SCA`s conditions are likely for large swell outside the bays. Sat Night - Sun...SCA`s conditions are likely for wind and large swell outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.