Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241951 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 351 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds to our south this weekend allowing warmer and more humid air to move in with mainly sunny conditions. A cold front will cross the area Monday bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms followed by high pressure through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Plenty of cloudiness will continue across the region for the rest of this afternoon, mainly over interior portions. Along the coast, a sea breeze is cutting many of the Cumulus clouds from underneath. The latest NamNest continue to indicated the possibility of a stray shower or two mainly over southern and central portions of New Hampshire until sunset. A beach hazards statement will remain in effect until about sunset as well due to the combination of sunny, relatively mild conditions and cold water temperatures in many areas. The sea breeze will continue until sunset across the coastline. Thereafter, mainly clear skies will be present. This will allow for some radiational cooling and with surface dew points climbing into the 50s we can expect patchy fog to develop overnight. Some stratus will continue to move in off the Gulf of Maine tonight per latest satellite imagery and most recent HREF low visibility probabilities. Therefore have included patchy marine fog overnight as well. Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop into the 50s in all areas tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Morning fog will mix out Saturday morning across the region with HREF indicating areas just inland from the coast potentially mixing out the latest. There will be a weakening back door front attempting to enter central and northern areas during the day Saturday. Modeled CAPES at or above 1000 J/KG may trigger a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. It will be very warm with increasing humidity on Saturday. This will make for very warm conditions. H8 temperatures near +15C in addition to the sunshine will allow for surface temperatures to top out well into the 80s across the interior. Along the coastline, temperatures will cool off during the afternoon hours due to a developing sea breeze. The moisture will allow for more fog Saturday night across the region with muggy conditions. Dew point values will be in the lower to mid 60s across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure stretched along the East Coast will continue very warm and humid conditions Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday night and will cross the area Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Broad high pressure will build in behind the front Tuesday for fair weather and comfortable humidity levels. High pressure looks to stick around through the end of next week, for mostly dry weather and a warming trend into next Friday. High pressure will bring mostly dry and sunny weather Sunday. Temperatures at H8 will be in the 15C to 17C range, which will allow highs into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Steady onshore winds will keep areas along and east of I-95 in the low 80s with the beaches staying in the 70s. It will also be humid with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, although those within the higher end of the dewpoint range will feel the cooling effects of the sea breeze. A cold front will approach from the west late Sunday bringing increasing clouds Sunday night. It will also be mild and humid Sunday night with lows only dropping to near 60 degrees across the north to upper 60s across southern New Hampshire. The 12Z model suite is in fairly good agreement that a cold front will be crossing upstate New York and Vermont Monday morning and will cross our area late Monday morning through the afternoon before moving offshore Monday night. The exact timing of the front will be critical to how much instability can be achieved and at this time range the FROPA is still liable to change some. Ensemble suites generally have a majority of members that show at least some CAPE developing ahead of the front with some members showing upwards of 2000 J/kg, while other solutions show little to no CAPE. Have generally run with likely chances for showers with chance to slight chances for thunder across the entire area with thunder chances dropping off from NW to SE late Monday afternoon and evening. PWATs will also be high on the order of 1.5+ inches and with a right entrance region of an 300 mb jet in the vicinity of New England there will be potential for heavy bouts of rain with the frontal passage. Will continue to monitor trends in FROPA timing as any slowing of the front will increase the probability of severe storms while current guidance suggest a non optimal set up for severe weather. The cold front will be pushing offshore Tuesday morning with high pressure building in from the west. This will bring much drier air into the area for a fair weather day with highs in the 70s and comfortable humidity levels. Global models suggest a wave at 500 mb will cross Quebec Wednesday evening with a weak surface cold front clipping northern areas. This may bring a chances for showers across far northern areas Wednesday night while models suggest precipitation with the front will be limited. High pressure builds back into the area for the second half of the week with a warming trend into next Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term...Patchy developing fog may allow for visibilities to drop to a mile or less in just about any of the terminals overnight into Saturday morning with MVFR to IFR conditions. This is supported by the latest HREF probabilities solutions of visibilities dropping to a half mile or less. After an improvement Saturday, more fog develops Saturday night. Long Term...Any fog will dissipate Sunday morning with VFR for much of Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front will cross Monday bringing wide SHRA and some TSRA and most terminals will likely experience period of MVFR to IFR during the day Monday. Clearing ensues Monday night into Tuesday with a return to VFR through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds through the short term portion of the forecast. Long Term...Southerly flow increases Sunday and Sunday night ahead of a cold front. This will bring winds close to SCA thresholds by Monday morning with seas building to 5 ft. Winds shift out of the NW Monday night followed by high pressure building in Tuesday for quiet conditions overs the waters into Wednesday.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schroeter

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