Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231126 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 726 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England while Ophelia remains well to the south as the system moves inland over the Mid Atlantic. Some showers from the northern fringe of Ophelia may clip far southern areas at times late today into Sunday night. The remnants of Ophelia exit into the Atlantic Monday with high pressure becoming centered over New England through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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725 AM...Minor update to reflect observational trends. Previously... While high clouds are obscuring the satellite view this morning...they are not thick enough to prevent radiational cooling and fairly widespread valley fog in the usual spots. Based on yesterday morning and the fact that cloud cover may limit mixing early on...I have fog lifting between 9 and 10 am. Clouds lower and thicken the most over southern NH...and this will keep temps coolest there thru the afternoon. However...forecasts continue to trend drier and anything more than sprinkles may not move into the forecast area much before midnight. So I have trimmed the northern edge of the PoP forecast. The other addition to the forecast was an area of moderate rip risk for York County and the Seacoast of NH. A small long period southeast swell continues and winds have been persistently onshore for the last couple of days. As winds increase to a steady 10 kt later today I think that could lead to a greater likelihood of rip currents.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight rain showers are more likely to push into southern NH...but with plenty of dry air to contend with the cut off should remain rather sharp. Cloud shield should be a bit thicker though...and so temps will be a couple degrees warmer than what we see this morning. With fog a little more uncertain I have capped it at patchy wording as well. Sun a series of S/WV trofs dropping thru Atlantic Canada will effectively stop Tropical Storm Ophelia from progressing any further north. Rain will become even more scattered as a result. Cloud cover will once again invert the temps across the area...with warmest readings farther north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The remnants of Ophelia will skirt south of New England Sunday night. High pressure over eastern Canada will build south into New England Monday and will remain anchored over the area through the end of next week. This will bring a prolonged stretch of dry weather with mostly sunny days and cool nights. As the high pressure descends upon the area early next week night time temperatures look to be seasonably cool with some frost potential across the north. Heights start to builds over the Northeast around the middle of next week allowing temperatures to moderate. Highs will generally be in the 60s Monday and Tuesday and climb closer to 70 degrees by Wednesday. The 00Z model suite as well as the 8 to 14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center suggest mostly dry and mild weather will continue beyond the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...LIFR in valley fog this morning...along with a small patch of marine fog/stratus in the lower Kennebec Valley. This is all expected to lift after sunrise...with LIFR conditions lingering in the CT River Valley as late as 14z at LEB. Generally VFR conditions expected today. There is a chance of local MVFR or lower conditions in SHRA across southern NH...but confidence is low enough that I have not included in the TAF. Valley fog is possible again tonight in the northern valleys...including HIE and LEB. High pressure noses a little further in the forecast area Sun...and generally VFR expected. Long Term...Northeasterly gusts to around 20 kts will be possible for coastal TAF sites Monday into Tuesday morning. Conditions will remain VFR for much of next week, other than night time valley fog likely bringing restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will start to increase today as the coastal waters are sandwiched between high pressure building to the north and Tropical Storm Ophelia to the south. Breezy east northeast winds may not ever reach SCA thresholds...but seas will build close to 5 ft especially south of Cape Elizabeth. This is expected to continue thru Sun night. Long Term...Northeasterly flow between high pressure over eastern Canada and the remnants of Ophelia passing south of New England could bring wind gusts to around 25 kts Monday into Monday night. High pressure then settles over New England through the middle of next week with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Schroeter is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.