Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 010156
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 PM HST Sat Oct 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light and variable winds will continue through the weekend with
mostly favorable weather conditions. Some passing showers will
continue to remain possible, but rainfall amounts should remain
low. Light to moderate trade winds will briefly come back for the
first half of next week. Another low pressure system will deepen
northwest of Kauai by the middle of next week. This will cause the
trades to weaken and veer toward the southeast. At this time we
are expecting the bulk of the moisture to stay west of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon sea breezes combined with lee side convergence has led
to some scattered showers across east Oahu and east Big Island
this afternoon. These showers will be on the decrease this evening
as a land breeze begins to develop. For tonight, we should see
relatively cool temperatures with light winds. On the summits of
the Big Island, the Wind Advisory has been cancelled and we should
continue to see a decrease of winds at the summits this evening
and tonight.

On Sunday, we should see light and variable winds with sea breezes
developing during the afternoon. A weak and shallow front is
expected to approach the state later in the afternoon, but is
expected to dissipate before reaching the state. Some showers will
likely still move into our area especially around northern Kauai
in the afternoon and evening. These showers should remain light to
moderate in intensity.

By early next week, a ridge of high pressure will build north of
the state and we should see the return of moderate trade winds on
Monday afternoon. Lingering moisture associated with the recent
front will be riding in with the trade winds on Tuesday and will
likely bring an uptick of showers especially across windward
areas. Even though the trades return, the dewpoints will be higher
than normal and will cause the temperatures to feel warm during
this time.

The return of our trade winds will be short-lived as a front
develops northwest of the state towards the middle of next week.
This will cause the winds to veer toward the southeast direction.
Most of the precipitation associated with the front is expected to
stay north of the islands at this time. Long range forecast
models are showing the front lifting north towards the end of
week, with locally breezy trades possibly returning towards next
weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...
A weak surface trough passing by the islands from the northwest
and north is inducing isolated showers across the area. However,
most locales will remain VFR through the late afternoon and
tonight. Winds overall will be from the northwest at light to
locally moderate speeds. Land breezes will develop overnight,
while sea breezes take hold during Sunday daylight hours.

No AIRMETs are in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
Weakening low pressure located over 1000 nm north-northeast of
the islands will lift away from the state tonight. Gentle
northwest winds will gradually shift out of the northeast over
most islands on Sunday, while winds will be variable around the
Big Island. Surface high pressure currently northwest of the
islands will build north of the area late Sunday and Monday,
allowing trade winds to slowly develop. Winds may shift
southeasterly across Kauai and Oahu waters on Wednesday and
Thursday as surface low pressure forms to the northwest.

As the current north-northwest swell declines tonight, a
northwest swell will begin to rise, and north shore surf will
build to around or slightly above November average by Sunday
afternoon. The swell will shift out of the north-northwest on
Monday and may increase, pushing north shore surf near the
advisory level. This swell will decline Tuesday and Wednesday,
followed by a similarly sized swell Wednesday night and Thursday.
This swell will shift out of the north and decrease late next
week.

South shore surf will remain small during the next few days, but
a late season south-southwest swell may push surf to near, or
possibly above, summer average for Wednesday and Thursday,
followed by a slow decline into next weekend. Small east shore
surf will gradually increase starting Monday and may reach
November average by Thursday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Wroe



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