Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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396
FXHW60 PHFO 150139
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
339 PM HST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger northeast of the Hawaiian Islands into
next week, producing moderate to breezy trade winds. Weak upper
level troughing will keep brief showers in the forecast, favoring
windward and mountain areas. Drier conditions are expected for
leeward locations. Additionally, clouds and showers will develop
along the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, high pressure remains situated far northeast of
the main Hawaiian Islands. This feature is producing moderate to
breezy easterly trade winds across the state. Meanwhile, limited
moisture embedded within the trades is producing isolated showers
along mainly windward and mountain locations, but rainfall totals
today have been light. In the upper levels, a subtropical jet over
the islands is streaming thin cirrus overhead. This jet is
expected to weaken during the second half of Saturday.

The surface high far northeast of the islands will linger through
this weekend and into next week, maintaining a fairly typical
moderate to breezy trade wind weather pattern into the foreseeable
future with little day-to-day variation. Weak upper level
troughing will keep inversion heights between 5,000 and 7,000
feet for much of the forecast period, with the exception of the
second half of the weekend. Expect brief showers at times, mainly
over windward and mountain areas. It is possible that a weak low-
level easterly wave on Saturday night could produce a slight
boost to shower activity through Sunday morning. Otherwise,
showers will be fairly brief and light, and coverage will be
greatest during the overnight to early morning hours each day.
Drier conditions are forecast over leeward locations, with the
exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island, where daytime
surface convergence will increase clouds and introduce isolated
showers each afternoon.

Not much day-to-day change in the forecast is expected over the
next seven days. Increasing trends in the easterly trade wind
speeds may develop next week from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trades should continue over the next few days.
Low cigs and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas, with brief
periods of MVFR conds possible. A few SHRA may make it over to
leeward areas at times, but otherwise VFR conds should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island as
well as windward portions of Maui, Lanai and Molokai.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly trades will remain locally breezy through the weekend and
much of next week as a surface ridge persists north of the area.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for the windier channels
and waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been
extended through the weekend. The ridge may weaken slightly early
next week, causing winds to decrease a bit. However, the SCA for
the windier waters may continue through the forecast period.

The High Surf Advisory for all south facing shores has been
upgraded to a High Surf Warning (HSW) as a long period south
swell continues to gradually build and surf observations show
spotty surf heights reaching warning threshold. This HSW is in
effect through noon Saturday. A gradual downward trend is
expected after Saturday into early next week. After this swell
moves out, very little swell is expected next week after Tuesday.
North-facing shore surf will become flat for the next few days.
Small medium period northwest pulses may provide a tiny bump
Sunday night into middle of next week. Surf along east-facing
shores will remain small and choppy each day due to a limited
trade wind fetch upstream of the islands.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until noon HST Saturday for south facing
shores.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Powell