Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow night]...

In the wake of yesterdays cold front, mild temperatures and clearing
skies made for a pleasant Friday. The forecast into tonight, will
not be much different. Northerly winds will drop lows into the 50s
and 60s but will be slightly warmer. Overnight, winds are expected
to slowly shift more southerly, which will stop this stretch of
cooler dry weather. Even with some lingering cloud coverage
tomorrow, highs are still expected to be right around 80 across the
CWA with a moist southerly wind flow. Tomorrow night, lows are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s with some higher chances of
patchy fog in the northern counties.  This pattern holds at least
through tomorrow night as another cold front approaches the area
early next week.  35

.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...

The start of the work week should be a warm one as onshore winds and
increasing low-level moisture prevail. Latest models appear to be in
fairly decent agreement with the timing of the cold front into SE TX
Mon afternoon/evening. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will
be possible ahead of/with the line as slowly pushes toward the Gulf.
A cooler/slightly drier air mass is set to build into the region Mon
night as POPs decrease. However, rain chances are expected to return
Tue/Wed with the subsequent arrival of a strong/deepening upper trof
and its associated low from the west. Of note with this next system,
could be its potential impacts with the track of the tropical system
currently moving toward the southern Gulf. Most of the global models
are tracking this upper trof/low east across the Souther Plains Weds
into this does favor a north-central and/or north-eastern
Gulf coast spot for landfall. In the meantime, it should be a cloudy
and cool forecast with periods of showers/isolated thunderstorms for
much of the area until this upper level system finally lifts out and
helps to swing the next cold front through the area Weds night. 41


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions take over the flying areas as some lower ceilings
scatter out. Northerly flow through the day will keep dew points low
and relatively dry in the upper atmosphere. Overnight, ridging moves
to our east and shifts the winds more southerly, bringing in
moisture up to about 850mb with clearing skies. With current soil
moisture in the northern and western flying areas higher due to the
rainfall yesterday, and still some decent cooling tonight, some
radiational fog forming would not be surprising. The main question
will be if the winds are able to mix it enough to form it or just
stay more MIFG. Either way, that will be a short lived event and
mainly effecting the northern TAF sites such as UTS and CXO from
around 12-15z. With not much indicating dense fog formation, 6sm BR
is about the worst in the TAFs. For the rest of the forecast period,
light southerly winds  and some morning MVFR ceilings clearing out
around noon tomorrow.  35



High pressure builds into the area today and tonight, trending down
seas. AS the high moves to the east of the forecast area, winds will
shift southerly tonight. Tuesday morning, a cold front is expecting
to stall just along the coastline before passing through the waters
Wednesday. With that, seas are expected to start building late
Tuesday with a developing tropical system effecting the coastal
waters. As that moves to our east and the cold front moves into the
waters Wednesday, seas are not expected to subside until late Friday
and onshore flow is expected to return next weekend.  35



College Station (CLL)  55  81  68  79  51 /   0   0   0  40  40
Houston (IAH)          59  81  70  81  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
Galveston (GLS)        68  80  75  82  70 /   0   0   0  10  20






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