Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog should remain around the I-10
corridor and south this morning until shortly after sunrise when
it is expected to dissipate. Winds will be light and out of the SE
throughout the day. Possible isolated coastal showers this
afternoon and early evening for southwestern counties, but
coverage is expected to be so minimal and isolated, that I didn`t
feel comfortable putting in VCSH for LBX. Fog possible again
during the overnight hours for most sites except UTS and CLL where
wind might be too strong and cloud coverage too dense.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Calm winds and mostly clear skies have led to areas of dense and
patchy fog primarily south of I-10 this morning. This radiation fog
will dissipate shortly after sunrise as temperatures and humidity
quickly climb. Daytime highs should reach the mid to upper 80s
inland and low 80s along the coast. Although primarily zonal flow
aloft will remain in place today, slightly higher PWs towards
western portions of our CWA and a weak approaching mid level
shortwave will help kick up a few coastal showers west of I-45. Even
then, PoPs only peak around 20% in the afternoon. As the previously
mentioned mid level shortwave pushes northeast and up the TX coast,
rain chances begin to steadily increase for our area.  Overnight,
coastal showers along our western counties will push inland and rain
chances will slowly migrate to the east and further inland
throughout the day. Activity should be diurnally driven with best
rain chances peaking late afternoon at around 40% for most counties.
Temps should peak in the mid to upper 80s once again on Saturday and
overnight lows will cool to near 70 Saturday night. Ensemble models
are hinting at patchy fog again tomorrow night, but winds might be
too strong for northern counties and mix down drier air while a
subtle increase in low level cloud cover might slow down
radiational cooling overnight. Therefore, held off on putting in
patchy/dense fog tomorrow night, but still something to keep an
eye out for should conditions improve for radiation fog.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Surface high pressure over the East Coast with a weak disturbance
moving through the Midwest will increase southerly flow into SE
Texas on Sunday. PWATs surge to 1.5 to 1.7", which combined with
daytime heating will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly zonal flow aloft will limit precipitation somewhat on
Sunday, but thinking the increase in moisture will lead to at
least some isolated showers for areas east of I-45. The low
pressure system to the north will continue eastwards through the
start of the work week with the associated cold front never making
past the Red River Valley area. Thus, our unseasonably warm
weather will continue through at least midweek with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s. There will be a shortwave moving up from Mexico on
Tuesday next week that will increase the chance of precipitation.

The pattern begins to change mid week. A low pressure system will
be exiting the Rockies around Wednesday next week with it`s cold
front making it through our area Wednesday into Thursday. While
details are still a bit uncertain this far out, this front looks
to usher in cooler, drier to end the week.

Fowler


.MARINE...

Low winds and moist air will lead to patchy dense fog along the
immediate coast and in the Bays through the mid morning. This fog
threat will occuring tonight into Saturday morning as well.
Increasing southerly flow will help to limit fog threat Sunday and
beyond, but still cannot completely out rule it for Saturday
night. The increasing southerly flow will also bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Caution conditions will be
possible starting Saturday night with southerly winds 15-20kts and
seas increasing to 3 to 5ft and continue into Sunday night. Winds
and wave heights decrease Monday and remain below SCEC through at
least midweek. A frontal passage is possible midweek bringing an
increase in showers and thunderstorms and a northwesterly wind
shift.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  86  68  85  69  87 /  10   0  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)          86  69  85  70  86 /  10  10  40  20  30
Galveston (GLS)        82  75  83  76  84 /  20  10  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Austin...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland
     Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
     Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern
     Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$


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