Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 172246 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Hanford CA
345 PM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Updated Air Quality Issues section

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue today before a
cold front moves through the area this evening into Monday,
bringing light rain and mountain snow to much of the area. Locally
strong gusty winds are likely through and below the west side
mountain passes this afternoon and evening, and through Kern
County mountain passes tonight into Monday morning. A brief period
of elevated fire weather conditions will occur through this
afternoon for the Kern County mountains. Temperatures will drop
well below average Monday, then warming to near normal by
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today will be the warmest day this week, as another strong cold
front will sweep across the region overnight. This one has some
moisture with it, so we are forecasting some snow in the high
country of Yosemite above 6000 feet. We are possibly going to see
some light rain in the SJV. The timing of the frontal band is
between midnight and 5 am tomorrow across the SJV. Lingering post
frontal upslope clouds and south valley light rain and drizzle
will stick around on Monday.

Windy and cold will be the call for Monday, as high temperatures
will not even get into the 70s in the SJV. Winds will increase
later today across the west side of the SJV as the cold front gets
closer. We will also see gusty winds across the Kern county
mountain passes and desert slopes. Blowing dust and sand will
reduce visibility on the desert highways.

Shortwave ridging will build in on Tuesday with clearing and light
winds. Another cold front will move inland across NORCAL Tuesday
night with a trailing cold front that is forecast to weaken as it
moves south into Merced county Wednesday. NBM is stalling the
front and is producing some light rain mainly north of Fresno
county. As the trough digs, the orientation of the front will
shift more north and south and will lift back north of Merced
county and stalls on Thursday. Of course the timing and intensity
of this front has been all over the place even with the ensembles.
The models are having trouble moving the front inland and is
hanging up off the coast. It appears that the NORCAL coast will
get hit hard with heavy rainfall based on current GEFS QPF
forecast.

As the boundary off the coast weakens, another strong cold front
will move inland Friday and clip the northern SJV and into
Mariposa county as well into YNP. This system quickly falls apart
as another cold front will make landfall into NORCAL Saturday
afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture is forecast to remain
north of Fresno County on Sunday with showers possible. The
westerlies have really picked up as we are seeing multiple fronts
have impacts on California`s weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
Precipitation will spread southward over central California after
00Z Monday. Expect areas of MVFR in mainly light showers, with
some local IFR and mountain obscurations in the higher terrain.
VFR conditions will otherwise prevail across Central California
through at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday, October 18th, 2021, unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Sequoia National Park and Forest. Further information is available
at Valleyair.org.

&&

.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or
to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for
CAZ338.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening
for CAZ300-301-304-305-308-309-313.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Monday for CAZ323-326.

&&

$$

public/aviation/fw....JDB
pio/idss/sm...........CMc

weather.gov/hanford


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