000
FXUS66 KHNX 060027
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
427 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

.UPDATE...
Air Quality Section Updated.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue with record highs possible across
parts of the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday afternoon. A
disturbance will bring a chance for light precipitation on
Wednesday, mainly around Yosemite NP. A cooling trend will lower
temperatures to near normal by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog this morning across the San Joaquin Valley, otherwise
another sunny day as temperatures continue their warming trend.
Temperatures is afternoon are expected to reach into the upper 60s
and should reach the 70 degree mark on Wednesday. With the ridge
of high pressure still overhead, morning fog developed as winds
across the area remained light. The ridge will remain in place for
another night as mist and haze returns to the valley. The latter
part of the week will see a change in the weather as a disturbance
travels through the region and brushes the northern portions the
Central California Interior. While precipitation will remain
mostly north of Fresno, Winds will increase across the district
along with a significant drop in temperatures.

Ensembles continue showing high confidence in maintaining the
ridge pattern over the West through mid-week. Ensemble uncertainty
in the magnitude of Thursday’s storm remains higher then the
timing of the passage. Therefore, will continue with the weaker
solution and keep the better potential of precipitation mostly
north of Fresno County. At this point, NBM probability of
measurable precipitation has increased by ten percent as the area
from Madera to Merced range from 30 to 40 percent, respectively.
As for fog development, NBM is has dropped its probability of
exceedance percentage of reaching visibility values less the 5 and
3 miles. Probability of exceedance of reaching values less then 1
mile has dropped to less then 10 percent for tonight. Therefore,
while mist and haze has a good potential of developing, fog will
be even more difficult to develop beyond very patchy coverage.

The warming trend continues as probability of exceedance of
reaching 70 degrees remains high for the Wednesday period. By
Wednesday, probability of reaching or exceeding record highs hit
double digit percentages. Therefore, confidence is high that
warming will continue through Wednesday as a chance exist of
reaching a record max value. Afterward, NBM indicates high
confidence in a cooling trend in a post-frontal environment. While
not much precipitation is expected over the lower portions of the
Central California Interior, the cooling trend may lead to
possible frost and freeze toward the end of the week. NBM
probability of exceedance of reaching 32 degrees rises to above 60
percent (north of Kern County) by Saturday. At this point, a ridge
begins to rebuild back over the West as the storm exits the West.
While warming will start again, it will be a slow process as cold
air lingers over the area into early next week. By day six and
seven, Cluster analysis hints toward having the ridge axis
approach the West Coast to continue the warming trend into the
next work week.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California until 08Z
Wednesday. Afterward, Areas of MVFR in mist/haze with a less then
10 percent chance of IFR/LIFR in fog across the San Joaquin
Valley from 08Z to 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/05/2023 14:57
EXPIRES: 12/06/2023 23:59
On Wednesday December 6 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area).
Burning Discouraged in Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Operations...Molina

weather.gov/hanford