Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 191042
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
242 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the central California interior
through Thursday with above normal afternoon temperatures. A storm
system that tracks inland through southern California later this
week may bring a chance of showers mainly south of Fresno county
Friday afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow across the region yesterday and today will keep
temperatures nearly steady and continued above normal with high
clouds from time to time quickly moving by. Models are still
advertising a pattern change for later in the week. Cold core
energy diving south in the EPAC will buckle the pattern and build
ridging over CA on Thursday as the energy cuts off a closed low.
The impact on Thursday will be lower relative humidities and
warmer temperatures. Temperatures on Thursday will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal across the CENCAL interior, this is continued
bad news for the Sierra snow pack.

We will see increasing clouds and slightly cooler temps on Friday
as the closed low off the coast decides where it wants to move
onshore Friday night. Unfortunately the models are all over the
place and confidence remains medium to low on the track of the
low. We have seen a drastic change to a more northerly track for
landfall from nearly Tijuana yesterday to clipping Point
Conception and into the Los Angeles area by Friday night. This
significant change in the track is now bringing chances of light
precipitation as far north as Fresno county now. We are hoping
"wish casting" that the models will keep this track, and maybe
even farther north. The ensembles have also picked up on the
northern track as well. At this time, based on the current track
we could see some gusty easterly winds Thursday. This will
increase temperatures in the south valley due to downsloping, but
downsloping also decreases the amount of precip as well.

As is the case with upper level lows, they sometimes get a mind of
their own and track outside the models forecasts. We could really
use the moisture across the region and are watching the track
very closely. As we get nearer to the event, we will increase
confidence and associated impacts possible with the weather
system. The upper level low is relatively weak and we are not
seeing a deep cold core system that one would expect for the
middle of February. So no matter where it decides to move inland,
we will not see a significant weather maker with this fast moving
system.

By Saturday evening, the low is well inland and EPAC ridging
returns for Sunday and continues through Tuesday with seasonal
temperatures on Sunday and gradually warming to above normal
temperatures by Tuesday with a dry NW flow across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR and local IFR can be
expected from 12z through 17z Wednesday in haze and mist.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday February 19 2020... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern...
Kings... Madera and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...JDB
aviation....Durfee

weather.gov/hanford



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