Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 012015
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
115 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2020


.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain off the Southern California coast
through Thursday and then will move inland across the area
on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will warm to a mid week
maximum out ahead of the low, then cool to below normal later in
the week as increased clouds and a threat of precipitation
arrive.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend leading to a shot of hot weather is beginning
just in time for meteorological summer to begin today. Non-
meteorologists will have to wait for the summer solstice on June
20th to welcome the return of the summer season.

This forecast is becoming a bit difficult on the temperature
front due to the cutoff low feature that is spinning southwest
over the eastern Pacific off the coast of southern California. It
is sitting about 30N 125W and pushing up a decent layer of
scattered mid to high level debris clouds over central and
southern California. This cloud cover is keeping temperatures a
bit muted than what would have been possible due to the synoptic
warming that is occuring. Looking at the 24 hour trend, the same
current temperature of 72 for 1215 PDT as 24 hours ago in Fresno
where clouds are present. In areas where cloud cover is present,
temperatures will run at least 2-3 degrees cooler than areas
without clouds. I opted to lower the forecast highs for today in
areas where clouds will reign supreme, but this can be a double
edge sword since if a break in the clouds occurs the temps will
spike up quickly.

This fact also does pose a potential fly in the ointment for the
forecasted hot spell coming Wednesday and Thursday. Yes it will
still be hot but if clouds do get spread over the area then it
could make the difference of a forecasted high such as 103 to
being reduced 99 or 100. Yes, in case you were wondering this is
splitting hairs a bit. But as far as criteria for heat advisory
and even cooling shelter openings it can make a world of
difference. At this time Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as
a ridge axis on the western periphery from the ridging over the
central southern CONUS retrogrades slightly westward into our
region. The interface between the low to the west and the ridge to
the east will bring a southerly flow into the region and along
with it mid to upper level moisture and perhaps some low level
moisture from the Gulf of California. The orographic lifting as
this air moves northward over the Sierra crest spine will increase
chances of showers and thunderstorms for the crest areas. A few
cells could drift off into the higher foothill areas. Main threats
would be heavy downpours and of course lightning.

By Saturday, the trough over the Pacific will be kicked eastward
over the area and at this time there looks to be an increase in
clouds and a cooling trend but moisture will be limited keeping
chances for precipitation low. Temperatures this weekend will
return to below normal levels. A zonal onshore flow looks to
keep temperatures cooler at least through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Andersen
aviation....Andersen

weather.gov/hanford



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