676
FXUS66 KHNX 090619
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1019 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Moderate confidence for dense valley fog to form again
in the San Joaquin Valley Monday morning.

2. There is high confidence of more widespread rain and snow
from late Monday until late Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 6000 feet
from Monday night until Wednesday afternoon.

3. Stronger winds also anticipated with the midweek system
along the Sierra crests and in the lee side of the Coastal Range
and Tehachapi Mountains.

4. There is medium confidence of a second system moving through
late next weekend bringing additional rain and snow to the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another night of dense fog is possible tonight, as the pattern
aloft transitions from slight ridging to trough as the storm
system moves east. The most likely places for dense fog are in
the center of the San Joaquin Valley south of Madera and north
of Bakersfield and mainly in the rural areas of the Valley.
While possibly patchy, this fog may still be dense in those
patchy areas, so a High Transportation Risk exists for the areas
included in the Dense Fog Advisory, which is valid starting at
midnight tonight through 11 AM tomorrow morning.

The main story for this week weatherwise is the upcoming storm
system coming through Monday night into Tuesday morning, with
the majority of the precipitation expected to fall on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as
snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains above 6000 feet, with total
accumulations of 4 to 10 inches above 6000 feet, and 12 to 18
inches above 7000 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for this region from 10 PM Monday through 4 PM Wednesday
with much of the snow falling on Tuesday. Wind gusts with this
snow are expected to be 40 to 50 mph. These wind gusts are also
expected to occur further south in the Tehachapi mountains and
the Mojave Desert Slopes, where probabilities for gusts of 55
mph or higher are 40-50%. As for rainfall, the Valley currently
has a 60-70% chance for a tenth of an inch on Wednesday, the
most likely day for the most rainfall. In the foothills, there
is a 70-80% chance for at least a half inch of rainfall. With
these percentages in mind, it seems this system is more of a
snow maker than a rain maker. Another aspect to note are the
thunderstorm chances with this system. They currently stand
around 10-15%, mainly in the foothills and north of Tulare
County on Wednesday. So isolated cells are possible that
afternoon.

Looking further into the forecast for next weekend into that
following week, there is medium, but growing confidence in a
much colder and longer lasting storm system moving through
California by Saturday through at least next Wednesday. Firstly,
long term models are showing some confidence in significantly
lowering snow levels as the system moves through the region,
with the 25th percentile from the NBM showing snow levels
falling from 5000 feet on Saturday to around 2500 feet on the
following Monday, then remaining consistent through Wednesday.
The 75th percentile only raises these elevations by about
2000-3000 feet, which puts the lowest snow levels around 4000
feet, which is still around the elevation of the I-5 through
Tejon Pass. And more precipitation is expected with this system,
which looks to be more intense than the upcoming system this
week. Current probabilities for a foot of snowfall in the Sierra
Nevada are 40-50% for elevation between 4000 and 7000 feet, and
60-70% in elevation above 7000 feet. Snow may even fall in the
foothills if the 25th percentile snow level verifies. The model
runs for this system have remained consistent in showing the
potential for a storm system, with increasing intensity of that
storm, which will be continually monitored for large changes in
that forecast.

&&


.AVIATION...
After 06Z, 30-40% chance for IFR or worse visibilities across
the eastern San Joaquin Valley; chances 40-50% for KHJO/KVIS.
VFR/MVFR conditions return after 19Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the Sierra Nevada, Coastal Range,
and in the Mojave Desert for the next 24 hours.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday February 9 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern
(Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Monday for CAZ302-303-306-
307-310>312-315.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST
Wednesday for CAZ323-326>331.
&&

$$

EW

weather.gov/hanford