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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KICT 051146
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Water vapor imagery shows upper energy extending from eastern
Nebraska down into western OK with strong upper ridging remaining
over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure is
situated over the Ohio Valley with some weak surface troughing
across the High Plains.

There are some light returns showing up across central and
southern KS in response to the weak upper trough slowly sliding
through the area. Some of this is also the result of increasing
mid level theta-e advection. Should continue to see some light
showers with the better chances shifting into eastern KS for the
afternoon hours. Feel that lack of surface focus will limit how
widespread showers and storms will get this afternoon. In
addition, dry low levels should keep any activity fairly high
based. Upper trough is expected to be moving into the Ozark region
by tonight, leaving brief upper ridging in place for Fri.

Temps will continue to warm a couple degrees today with highs on
Fri even hotter. By Fri, some locations along and especially west
of I-135 should see highs around 100. At this time it appears
dewpoints will remain low enough Fri to keep us out of the heat
headline business.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Models remain consistent in tracking shortwave energy out of the
Northern/Central Rockies and across Nebraska/northern KS on Sat
into Sat evening. This will bring another chance for some showers
and storms for Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Just like today,
the main issue will be lack of a surface focus. Starting to think
our best chance at more organized storms maybe for activity over
Nebraska to kick out some outflow and continues convection further
south into our area. GFS has been the most agressive model in
developing convection Sat afternoon/evening and think it maybe a
bit agressive, with the more widespread activity staying
northeast of the forecast area. Upper flow will flatten out behind
this wave which will allow dry conditions to return.

Confidence remains high in above normal temperatures remaining in
place through the weekend and at least into Mon and possibly Tue.
However, cloud cover on Sat may keep highs from reaching their
full potential. So Sun and Mon look like the warmest days at this
time. In addition, dewpoints will start to get back into the 70s
and upper 60s on both Sun and Mon which may get heat indices to
the 100 to 105 range.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Southerly winds will continue over the area today. Can`t rule out
a shower/storm over southeast KS today, however confidence is too
low mention in TAF. Expect region of BKN cigs to slowly shift
east today, leaving mostly clear skies by tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Wichita-KICT    89  67  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      90  67  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          89  67  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        88  67  93  73 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   88  67  93  73 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         93  67  99  73 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      91  65  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          91  68  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       90  67  96  73 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     85  66  91  72 /  20  20   0   0
Chanute         85  66  90  73 /  20  20   0   0
Iola            85  66  90  72 /  20  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    85  66  91  72 /  20  20   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KMB