Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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280 FXUS63 KICT 122348 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible this afternoon through tonight, especially across south and southeast Kansas. - Below-normal high temperatures through Sunday, then a slight warming trend to start the week. - Opportunities for rain continue through the next seven days, with the best chances appearing mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a mid/upper shortwave moving through the Central Plains with a vort max situated over central Kansas. The resultant MCS partially decayed over southern portions of the state late this morning and brought showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the area early this afternoon. As it moves eastward, the remnant MCV is expected to encounter ample, weakly- capped surface instability later this afternoon, which should continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development. Currently thinking areas generally along/south of the Kansas Turnpike will see the best chances for thunderstorm activity while the primary focus for stronger storms will lie in Oklahoma. As the prior forecast cycle highlighted, the strongest storms in southeast Kansas will be capable of marginally-severe wind and small hail given a less favorable setup than Friday. Per CAM ensembles, the slow-moving system is progged to exit the southeast corner of the state sometime Sunday afternoon/evening. Additionally, the slow movement of this system may support a flooding threat to portions of southern Kansas as showers and storms train over the area. PRECIPITATION: Abundant instability and relatively weak capping will allow for shower and storm chances to linger over the area through Tuesday, especially in southeast Kansas. Opportunities for widely scattered showers and storms will return beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday as a strengthening surface low develops and rolls in off the High Plains. Additional frontal passages on Thursday and Friday will keep rain chances in the forecast to close out the week. TEMPERATURES: Below-normal high temperatures (middle 80s to near 90) are expected for one more day before a warming trend through Tuesday places highs mostly in the middle to upper 90s. Repeated frontal passages to close out the week will keep highs near normal (low to middle 90s) through Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Showers and storms will move slowly eastward across southeast Kansas through the late evening hours. Otherwise low clouds in MVFR range look to develop over southern Kansas and spread northward across KCNU and KICT taf sites during the early morning hours on Sunday. The low clouds are expected to scatter out from west to east as the morning goes on with VFR conditions expected thereafter.
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&& .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ