Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000 FXUS63 KICT 140434 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The early morning MCS that produced some storms over south central KS continues to trek to the east across ern OK at this time, with some remnant clouds over extreme SE KS. Swirl associated with the Meso Convective induced vort center (MCV) may be enough to produce an isolated storm over SW MO or extreme SE KS late this afternoon or early this evening, but think most of the activity will be east of area. Attention then turns to the front range and wrn Neb, where a shortwave is expected to lead to thunderstorm development late this afternoon into this evening, in the upslope flow regime. Expect this convection to make some progress to the east and southeast late this evening with two possible storm complexes developing, with the first over wrn KS expected to drop southeast, staying to the west of the forecast area. The second complex over wrn Neb. may drop E-SE and possibly make it into central KS either late this evening over overnight. But as this complex moves into central KS, it will lose a lot of steam and diminish, as it runs into more stable air and warmer temps aloft, the further south it gets. So will leave some low pops in for this chance for central KS. For Tue, the remnant outflow boundary from the Neb complex will probably to located over portions of north central KS on Tue morning, with this outflow reinforced for the afternoon hours by a southeast moving cold front expected to drop south into central KS by Tue afternoon. Not alot of convergence along this front, with a fairly stout warm elevated mixed layer (EML) located to the south of it, so not expecting convergence to be strong enough to overcome the cap for Tue afternoon. But by Tue evening, a shortwave in the zonal flow, will come out of the Rockies, which will probably be enough lift to lead to thunderstorm development over wrn KS by Tue evening. Expect this high plains activity to move east into portions of central KS by late Tue evening. Given bulk shear around 30-35 kts and 2200-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, think some strong to severe storms will be possible across central KS for late Tue evening, mainly for areas along and north of highway 50. The Tue night convection will make steady progress to the E-NE late Tue night, so could see some early morning storms linger for areas NE of KICT for Wed morning. The Tue night convection across central KS, will push the main synoptic frontal boundary well into OK for Wed. This will lead to dry day on Wed, with potentially less humid conditions. Remnants of the Tue cold front will stall over OK, and drift back into northern OK and possibly southern KS, by Thu. A slightly higher precipitable water axis will be located along this diffuse boundary. This increased moisture will help lead to chance of isolated diurnally driven showers/storms across southern KS for Thu afternoon. So will go with a slight pop for this chance. Warm advection across most of the area for Thu night will lead to a chance of elevated showers and storms across the eastern half of KS late Thu night through Fri morning, but most of this activity will shift east of the area by early Fri. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Hot and breezy conditions will be the story for Fri and Sat, as the zonal flow leads to warm southwesterly flow across the plains. The good downslope flow will lead to max temps flirting with the century mark for Fri through Sun. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Breezy southeast winds will prevail across central and south central Kansas through tonight. Another large MCS that developed across the Central High Plains will continue drifting eastward tonight while continuing to dissipate. There is still plenty of uncertainty in how far east the activity will make it before dissipating with VFR prevailing at most locations. The best chance for showers/storms is expected across portions of central and perhaps south central KS in the 07-10Z timeframe. Much of the area may remain capped as we move through the day tomorrow although an approaching shortwave trough will bring increasing chances for storms to the region late tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 75 98 72 92 / 20 10 30 20 Hutchinson 73 94 69 88 / 20 10 30 20 Newton 74 94 70 89 / 20 10 40 20 ElDorado 73 95 72 90 / 20 10 30 20 Winfield-KWLD 75 99 73 94 / 20 10 20 10 Russell 70 89 65 85 / 20 10 40 20 Great Bend 71 91 66 86 / 20 10 40 20 Salina 74 93 69 88 / 20 10 40 30 McPherson 73 93 68 88 / 20 10 40 20 Coffeyville 75 97 76 94 / 10 10 20 10 Chanute 74 96 74 93 / 10 10 30 20 Iola 74 95 74 92 / 10 10 30 20 Parsons-KPPF 75 96 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...MWM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.