Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000 FXUS63 KICT 051146 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday night) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Water vapor imagery shows upper energy extending from eastern Nebraska down into western OK with strong upper ridging remaining over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Ohio Valley with some weak surface troughing across the High Plains. There are some light returns showing up across central and southern KS in response to the weak upper trough slowly sliding through the area. Some of this is also the result of increasing mid level theta-e advection. Should continue to see some light showers with the better chances shifting into eastern KS for the afternoon hours. Feel that lack of surface focus will limit how widespread showers and storms will get this afternoon. In addition, dry low levels should keep any activity fairly high based. Upper trough is expected to be moving into the Ozark region by tonight, leaving brief upper ridging in place for Fri. Temps will continue to warm a couple degrees today with highs on Fri even hotter. By Fri, some locations along and especially west of I-135 should see highs around 100. At this time it appears dewpoints will remain low enough Fri to keep us out of the heat headline business. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Models remain consistent in tracking shortwave energy out of the Northern/Central Rockies and across Nebraska/northern KS on Sat into Sat evening. This will bring another chance for some showers and storms for Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Just like today, the main issue will be lack of a surface focus. Starting to think our best chance at more organized storms maybe for activity over Nebraska to kick out some outflow and continues convection further south into our area. GFS has been the most agressive model in developing convection Sat afternoon/evening and think it maybe a bit agressive, with the more widespread activity staying northeast of the forecast area. Upper flow will flatten out behind this wave which will allow dry conditions to return. Confidence remains high in above normal temperatures remaining in place through the weekend and at least into Mon and possibly Tue. However, cloud cover on Sat may keep highs from reaching their full potential. So Sun and Mon look like the warmest days at this time. In addition, dewpoints will start to get back into the 70s and upper 60s on both Sun and Mon which may get heat indices to the 100 to 105 range.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will continue over the area today. Can`t rule out a shower/storm over southeast KS today, however confidence is too low mention in TAF. Expect region of BKN cigs to slowly shift east today, leaving mostly clear skies by tonight.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Wichita-KICT 89 67 95 73 / 10 10 0 0 Hutchinson 90 67 96 73 / 10 10 0 0 Newton 89 67 95 73 / 20 10 0 0 ElDorado 88 67 93 73 / 20 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 88 67 93 73 / 20 10 0 0 Russell 93 67 99 73 / 10 0 0 10 Great Bend 91 65 98 72 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 91 68 97 75 / 20 10 0 0 McPherson 90 67 96 73 / 20 10 0 0 Coffeyville 85 66 91 72 / 20 20 0 0 Chanute 85 66 90 73 / 20 20 0 0 Iola 85 66 90 72 / 20 20 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 85 66 91 72 / 20 20 0 0
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&& .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RBL LONG TERM...RBL AVIATION...KMB

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