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000
FXUS63 KICT 140434
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The early morning MCS that produced some storms over south central
KS continues to trek to the east across ern OK at this time, with
some remnant clouds over extreme SE KS.  Swirl associated with the
Meso Convective induced vort center (MCV) may be enough to produce
an isolated storm over SW MO or extreme SE KS late this afternoon or
early this evening, but think most of the activity will be east of
area. Attention then turns to the front range and wrn Neb, where a
shortwave is expected to lead to thunderstorm development late this
afternoon into this evening, in the upslope flow regime. Expect this
convection to make some progress to the east and southeast late this
evening with two possible storm complexes developing, with the first
over wrn KS expected to drop southeast, staying to the west of the
forecast area. The second complex over wrn Neb. may drop E-SE and
possibly make it into central KS either late this evening over
overnight. But as this complex moves into central KS, it will lose a
lot of steam and diminish, as it runs into more stable air and
warmer temps aloft, the further south it gets. So will leave some
low pops in for this chance for central KS.

For Tue, the remnant outflow boundary from the Neb complex will
probably to located over portions of north central KS on Tue
morning, with this outflow reinforced for the afternoon hours by a
southeast moving cold front expected to drop south into central KS
by Tue afternoon. Not alot of convergence along this front, with a
fairly stout warm elevated mixed layer (EML) located to the south of
it, so not expecting convergence to be strong enough to overcome the
cap for Tue afternoon.  But by Tue evening, a shortwave in the zonal
flow, will come out of the Rockies, which will probably be enough
lift to lead to thunderstorm development over wrn KS by Tue evening.
Expect this high plains activity to move east into portions of
central KS by late Tue evening.  Given bulk shear around 30-35 kts
and 2200-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, think some strong to severe storms
will be possible across central KS for late Tue evening, mainly for
areas along and north of highway 50.

The Tue night convection will make steady progress to the E-NE late
Tue night, so could see some early morning storms linger for areas
NE of KICT for Wed morning.  The Tue night convection across central
KS, will push the main synoptic frontal boundary well into OK for
Wed.  This will lead to dry day on Wed, with potentially less humid
conditions.

Remnants of the Tue cold front will stall over OK, and drift back
into northern OK and possibly southern KS, by Thu. A slightly higher
precipitable water axis will be located along this diffuse boundary.
This increased moisture will help lead to chance of isolated
diurnally driven showers/storms across southern KS for Thu
afternoon. So will go with a slight pop for this chance.

Warm advection across most of the area for Thu night will lead to a
chance of elevated showers and storms across the eastern half of KS
late Thu night through Fri morning, but most of this activity will
shift east of the area by early Fri.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Hot and breezy conditions will be the story for Fri and Sat, as the
zonal flow leads to warm southwesterly flow across the plains.  The
good downslope flow will lead to max temps flirting with the
century mark for Fri through Sun.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Breezy southeast winds will prevail across central and south
central Kansas through tonight. Another large MCS that developed
across the Central High Plains will continue drifting eastward
tonight while continuing to dissipate. There is still plenty of
uncertainty in how far east the activity will make it before
dissipating with VFR prevailing at most locations. The best chance
for showers/storms is expected across portions of central and
perhaps south central KS in the 07-10Z timeframe. Much of the
area may remain capped as we move through the day tomorrow
although an approaching shortwave trough will bring increasing
chances for storms to the region late tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  98  72  92 /  20  10  30  20
Hutchinson      73  94  69  88 /  20  10  30  20
Newton          74  94  70  89 /  20  10  40  20
ElDorado        73  95  72  90 /  20  10  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  99  73  94 /  20  10  20  10
Russell         70  89  65  85 /  20  10  40  20
Great Bend      71  91  66  86 /  20  10  40  20
Salina          74  93  69  88 /  20  10  40  30
McPherson       73  93  68  88 /  20  10  40  20
Coffeyville     75  97  76  94 /  10  10  20  10
Chanute         74  96  74  93 /  10  10  30  20
Iola            74  95  74  92 /  10  10  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    75  96  75  93 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM