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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 280814
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A large upper level low will pass south of the area through
Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the
rest of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper low near the Mississippi-Alabama border will push into
northern Georgia today. This system has spread moisture from the
Atlantic coast northwest into the region. Much of this moisture is
in the mid to upper levels. Showers occurring across southern
West Virginia and eastern Kentucky will move west, although with
a relatively hostile low level environment, the chances of
measurable rain will be low. Primary potential will be near and
south of the Ohio River. Thicker clouds and the showers that are
around today will limit diurnal rise in the southern counties
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Further north, readings will
get into the mid and possibly upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period.
The potential for showers along the northern periphery of this
system will be in southeastern counties, mainly tonight into
Monday morning. Elsewhere expect to see some breaks in the
clouds. Lows will be normal in the 50s. Highs will once again be
warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s
while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will
extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will
still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the
Carolinas. This will be near the end of a persistent Rex Block
pattern, which will break down by the middle of the week. At the
surface, the pattern will be somewhat nebulous, with no well-defined
features over the Ohio Valley. Speaking generally, there will be
higher pressures in the northeastern states, and lower pressures in
the deep south.

Generally diurnally-driven activity on Monday will be largely (if
not completely) dissipated after 00Z. Clearing skies and light
winds, with dewpoints in the mid 50s, will allow for min temps
Tuesday morning in the upper 50s across the forecast area.

By Tuesday, and through the rest of the week, the upper level
pattern will also become very nebulous over the Ohio Valley. Any
strong upper flow will be well displaced from the region, which
(describing it as best as is possible) will be underneath broad a
broad longwave ridge.

Despite a boundary layer pattern that will keep winds largely out of
the east, a gradual increase in temperatures and dewpoints can be
expected -- with marginal surface-based instability beginning to
build. This summer-like setup will be lacking in forcing, so any
precipitation chances will be primarily diurnal. Areal coverage will
be sparse, so this forecast just features some 20-30 percent chances
of showers and storms at various times (mainly in the afternoon
hours) on each day from Tuesday through Saturday.

In terms of temperatures, a gradual warming trend is expected from
Tuesday through Friday, with mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, and
upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday and Friday. Normal highs for this
time of year are in the upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue to prevail through the period. Mid to high
clouds will be prevalent. Cannot rule out some light showers at
the Cincinnati terminals, but that chance seems to be decreasing
and if it were to occur no reductions in flight category are
expected. A weak surface low in the area could make winds
variable, especially during the day, but speeds will be less
than 10 kt.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...