Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241106 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 706 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms will move through today in advance of a cold front. High pressure and dry conditions will work into the region for Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will move through the area for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain across central Ohio will continue to push out of the region this morning. There will then be a lull in the precipitation across the region with generally dry conditions expected for several hours. During the late morning hours and into the early afternoon hours thunderstorms will start to develop across southwestern and southern portions of the region. These thunderstorms will strengthen and become more widespread during the afternoon and early evening hours. The entire region is under a slight risk from SPC. The main threat is expected to be damaging winds. An isolated tornado and large hail cannot be ruled out. Storms will be progressive, however due to saturated grounds there will be at least some flash flood threat due to the rate of the rainfall. Even outside of thunderstorm activity today, winds will pick up and gust between 20 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will be a little cooler across the west than the east as it will take less time for the thunderstorm activity to move into the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the short term, however expect them to move out of the region early in the short term. Some residual shower activity will remain through around midnight before pushing out of the region. High pressure and dry conditions will work into the region for Tuesday. Went close to guidance for temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 80s. Winds will gust at times again with wind gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Heights will be rising at the beginning of the period, but a short wave moving across the Great Lakes will help push a boundary into at least northern Ohio and Indiana on Wednesday. Outside of the 00Z GFS, the trend has been for associated convection to be further north. Still have low chance PoPs across the entire area, but if trends continue, then it is possible that much of the forecast area could be dry on Wednesday. Upper ridge will build into the area for the end of the week. Cannot rule out isolated diurnal convection Thursday and Friday, but at this point forcing looks limited and weak. A deep trough over eastern Canada will push southeast over the weekend. The tail end of this trough will brush by the region but also push a back door cold front across the area. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal through the period with Friday being the warmest day of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally dry conditions are expected at the start of the TAF period. Some MVFR and IFR cigs will near KDAY this morning and therefore have a tempo MVFR cig in for a couple hours. Winds will begin to pick up during the day today with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible outside of thunderstorm activity. An approaching cold front will allow for shower and thunderstorm development during the day. Timed in the best chance for thunderstorm activity today. Vsbys will be reduced with the thunderstorm activity. Residual shower activity will linger into the night, however expect dry conditions to return by the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.