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000
FXUS61 KILN 241106
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
706 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will move through today in advance of a cold front.
High pressure and dry conditions will work into the region for
Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will move through the area for
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain across central Ohio will continue to push out of the region
this morning. There will then be a lull in the precipitation
across the region with generally dry conditions expected for
several hours.

During the late morning hours and into the early afternoon hours
thunderstorms will start to develop across southwestern and
southern portions of the region. These thunderstorms will
strengthen and become more widespread during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

The entire region is under a slight risk from SPC. The main
threat is expected to be damaging winds. An isolated tornado and
large hail cannot be ruled out. Storms will be progressive,
however due to saturated grounds there will be at least some
flash flood threat due to the rate of the rainfall.

Even outside of thunderstorm activity today, winds will pick up
and gust between 20 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will be a
little cooler across the west than the east as it will take less
time for the thunderstorm activity to move into the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the short term,
however expect them to move out of the region early in the short
term. Some residual shower activity will remain through around
midnight before pushing out of the region.

High pressure and dry conditions will work into the region for
Tuesday. Went close to guidance for temperatures with high
temperatures in the lower 80s. Winds will gust at times again
with wind gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Heights will be rising at the beginning of the period, but a short
wave moving across the Great Lakes will help push a boundary into at
least northern Ohio and Indiana on Wednesday. Outside of the 00Z
GFS, the trend has been for associated convection to be further
north. Still have low chance PoPs across the entire area, but if
trends continue, then it is possible that much of the forecast area
could be dry on Wednesday.

Upper ridge will build into the area for the end of the week. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection Thursday and Friday, but at
this point forcing looks limited and weak. A deep trough over
eastern Canada will push southeast over the weekend. The tail end of
this trough will brush by the region but also push a back door cold
front across the area. This will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period with Friday
being the warmest day of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally dry conditions are expected at the start of the TAF
period. Some MVFR and IFR cigs will near KDAY this morning and
therefore have a tempo MVFR cig in for a couple hours.  Winds
will begin to pick up during the day today with wind gusts
around 20 to 25 knots possible outside of thunderstorm activity.
An approaching cold front will allow for shower and
thunderstorm development during the day. Timed in the best
chance for thunderstorm activity today. Vsbys will be reduced
with the thunderstorm activity.

Residual shower activity will linger into the night, however
expect dry conditions to return by the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak