Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 071858 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 258 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. The high will linger through Monday as it reaches the Appalachians and becomes more diffuse. Southwest flow will then take over and a threat for showers exists late Monday and overnight, with a better chance for rain expected Tuesday as an upper low takes shape over the Midwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Expect any lingering cloud cover this afternoon to be wiped out by nightfall with generally clear skies found overnight. Towards daybreak, some patchy ground fog could be present in low-lying and fog-prone areas, but is not expected to be of any significance or reduce visibilities in most locations. With the light/variable winds, and clear skies, lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s, with a few lower 60s possible in the southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will remain overhead through the day on Saturday and slide southeast overnight. This will provide for dry conditions and a gradual warming trend as the flow eventually shifts to the south-southwest. Highs on Saturday will be within 2-3 degrees of 85, warmest in the southeast and coolest in the northwest. Overnight lows with a light surface wind and maybe some cirrus will bottom out right around 60 for most locales.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is forecast over the Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley as the extended period begins. H5 ridge looks like it will try to build back into the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday in the wake of a parting s/w. Although the low level flow becomes southerly on the backside of the departing high, dewpoints only start to rebound in Indiana on Sunday. Will keep Sunday dry as it looks like convection will stay just to the west. Highs will increase a little more, ranging from the mid to upper 80s in the Whitewater Valley/West Central Ohio to the lower 90s in the lower Scioto Valley/northeast Kentucky. Sunday night into Monday, a closed H5 low will drop out of the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian plains. A cold front associated with the H5 low is forecast to push into the western Great Lakes on Monday. This will add surface forcing and should help with scattered thunderstorm development. Highs will remain above normal. Tuesday into Wednesday, the region will be on the southern edge of zonal flow over the Great Lakes. This will allow some upper level forcing to affect the region, which will prompt diurnal convective development. Above normal highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast. For the last part of the week, models diverge in the handling of the H5 flow. All the extended models try to build a ridge, but they leave some weakness over the Ohio Valley. There should be enough low level instability and upper support to continue diurnal convection both Thursday and Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very light flow will be found as high pressure slowly builds into the region from lower Michigan. Fair weather cu is expected to be the primary result of this system, and some shallow ground fog could occur towards daybreak at KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.