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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 120102
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
902 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight with
decreasing clouds and cold temperatures. Mostly sunny skies and
slowly warming temperatures will prevail through the rest of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight,
bringing with it drier air and clearing skies. The mid and high
level clouds moving across the southern third of the forecast
area is expected to clear late. Thus, in collaboration with WFO
LMK, have added a few more counties to the Frost Advisory in
the Tri-State region. The remainder of the original Frost
Advisory remains in tact. Temperatures in the Frost Advisory
will fall into the lower to mid 30s. Elsewhere, upper 30s to
around 40 degrees are expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control for Wednesday and Wednesday
night providing mostly clear skies and light winds. Will need to
keep an eye on frost for the central Ohio cold spots before
sunrise on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The start of the long term period will feature generally
tranquil weather conditions for the Ohio Valley, even as as a
mid/upper level trof migrates east through the region Thursday
before ridging expands east into the area by the first part of
this weekend.

Surface high pressure with ample dry air through the column
will inhibit much in the way pcpn chances for the end of the
workweek into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures will
gradually warm during this time period, especially Friday and
Saturday as midlevel height rises begin to evolve locally. This
will merely bring temperatures back to more seasonable ranges
for this weekend, with quite a bit of uncertainty in the
forecast past Saturday night through the remainder of the long
term period.

Longer-range/synoptic guidance begins to diverge rather
substantially for the second half of the weekend into early next
week, courtesy of the development of a quasi split-flow pattern
during this time period. Will likely see one or more
disturbances/systems eject into the central plains by Sunday and
eventually a bit further east by Monday. The CMC and GFS tend
to favor a stronger solution characterized by a slightly further
south track of the system Sunday/Monday while the ECMWF shows a
solution dictated by stronger ridging along the spine of the
Appalachians, essentially shunting the better pcpn chances north
of the region and keeping the ILN FA mainly dry and warm
through the remainder of the long term period. Will delay the
chances for pcpn until at least the daytime period Sunday, but
will hold onto chance PoPs for Sunday night/Monday to account
for the inherent uncertainty in how this system will evolve
during this time period.

A trend toward normal and even above normal temperatures
appears likely by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin will build southeast into
the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus will
dissipate this evening with some mid/high clouds expected
through early morning. The mid and high clouds will shift south
overnight, leaving mainly clear skies by 12Z Wednesday. Some
diurnal cumulus clouds can then be expected (FEW-SCT) between
16Z and 18Z. Northerly winds between 5 and 10 knots will lighten
up toward 12Z, then become north/northeast 5 to 10 knots during
the day Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-082.
KY...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073-074.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hickman/Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hickman