Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will taper off this evening with decreasing clouds overnight. Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday along with more seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid level trof has pivoted southeast thru the region this afternoon leaving a northwesterly flow. Favorable low level flow off Lake Michigan and steep low level lapse rates led to widespread snow showers this afternoon. With the loss of daytime heating and low level flow backing - the snow shower activity has shown a decreasing trends. A few lingering snow showers or flurries will come to end by midnight. Latest satellite imagery shows holes developing in the extensive cloud cover. This trend will continue with clearing working in from the northwest as skies clear overnight. Gusty northwest winds will diminish to 10 mph or less and back west and then southwest overnight. It will be a cold night with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... Some mid level energy will move across the region through the day on Tuesday in progressive northwest flow aloft. This will help push a cold front southeast into our area through Tuesday night. Ahead of this, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southwest winds. With good mixing, some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible from late morning and into the afternoon Tuesday. This will lead to some decent drying through the day with RHs dropping down into the low to mid 20s through the afternoon. This could lead to some increased fire concerns during the day on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s with lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Longwave trough over eastern North America persists Wednesday into Thursday. This will help to maintain cooler air over the region. Breezy conditions are forecast on Wednesday behind a dry cold front that passes through the area Tuesday night. Even cooler air arrives Wednesday night into the Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out a few areas reaching the upper teens Wednesday night. Mid-level flow becomes more zonal Thursday night into Friday as the longwave trough ejects northeastward for a brief period. This will allow for a closed low moving through the southeast CONUS to move northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In combination with a shortwave moving through the northern Plains, precipitation will spread over the area Friday morning through the day. Given the cooler air in place, can`t rule out some mixed precipitation across far northern locations during the onset of precipitation. Otherwise, warm air advection in the lower levels will help melt any snow/ice pellets before reaching the ground. The longwave trough fails to become firmly established over the weekend so temperatures are currently forecast to be near normal. A more significant change in the longwave pattern is possible next week with general troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the eastern CONUS. This would support additional chances for rain and warmer conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Another quick-moving front will approach the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Southwesterly gradient will increase during the midday through late afternoon hours. Relatively dry low levels of the atmosphere will allow for efficient mixing and gusts reaching 30-35 knots at times. Loss of heating after sunset will allow gusts to drop off rapidly, leaving around 10 knots of wind slowly shifting from southwest to northwest to close out the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...

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