Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 120102 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 902 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight with decreasing clouds and cold temperatures. Mostly sunny skies and slowly warming temperatures will prevail through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing with it drier air and clearing skies. The mid and high level clouds moving across the southern third of the forecast area is expected to clear late. Thus, in collaboration with WFO LMK, have added a few more counties to the Frost Advisory in the Tri-State region. The remainder of the original Frost Advisory remains in tact. Temperatures in the Frost Advisory will fall into the lower to mid 30s. Elsewhere, upper 30s to around 40 degrees are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be in control for Wednesday and Wednesday night providing mostly clear skies and light winds. Will need to keep an eye on frost for the central Ohio cold spots before sunrise on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The start of the long term period will feature generally tranquil weather conditions for the Ohio Valley, even as as a mid/upper level trof migrates east through the region Thursday before ridging expands east into the area by the first part of this weekend. Surface high pressure with ample dry air through the column will inhibit much in the way pcpn chances for the end of the workweek into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm during this time period, especially Friday and Saturday as midlevel height rises begin to evolve locally. This will merely bring temperatures back to more seasonable ranges for this weekend, with quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast past Saturday night through the remainder of the long term period. Longer-range/synoptic guidance begins to diverge rather substantially for the second half of the weekend into early next week, courtesy of the development of a quasi split-flow pattern during this time period. Will likely see one or more disturbances/systems eject into the central plains by Sunday and eventually a bit further east by Monday. The CMC and GFS tend to favor a stronger solution characterized by a slightly further south track of the system Sunday/Monday while the ECMWF shows a solution dictated by stronger ridging along the spine of the Appalachians, essentially shunting the better pcpn chances north of the region and keeping the ILN FA mainly dry and warm through the remainder of the long term period. Will delay the chances for pcpn until at least the daytime period Sunday, but will hold onto chance PoPs for Sunday night/Monday to account for the inherent uncertainty in how this system will evolve during this time period. A trend toward normal and even above normal temperatures appears likely by early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High pressure centered over Wisconsin will build southeast into the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening with some mid/high clouds expected through early morning. The mid and high clouds will shift south overnight, leaving mainly clear skies by 12Z Wednesday. Some diurnal cumulus clouds can then be expected (FEW-SCT) between 16Z and 18Z. Northerly winds between 5 and 10 knots will lighten up toward 12Z, then become north/northeast 5 to 10 knots during the day Wednesday. .OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-082. KY...None. IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hogue NEAR TERM...Hickman/Hogue SHORT TERM...Hogue LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Hickman

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