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000
FXUS61 KILN 312005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
405 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure tracking from the Gulf states to the
Carolinas will precede a weakening upper level trough in the
Ohio Valley late today into the early evening. The combination
of the two will bring a low chance of light rain in the
southeast CWA, primarily residing between KY and WV. Likewise, a
sprinkle or light rain will remain possible over the northern
CWA given the proximity of the upper trough, increased lower
moisture, and cold air working in on northerly winds. Dry
conditions will result as high pressure builds into the Ohio
Valley Wednesday, with temperatures warming for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain in southeastern CWA is skirting just a few counties and will
pivot from northern Kentucky into far south central Ohio and
Adams/Scioto/Pike counties for the early part of the evening.

Significant cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too far,
but a nice northerly wind around 5-10 mph with cold advection will
permit readings to drop into the upper 30s tonight. A sprinkle will
remain possible in northern sections of the CWA but remains very few
and far in-between than the light rain hitting southeastern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy skies will keep temps within a few degrees of 50 tomorrow and
high pressure settling over the area will limit any threat of a
lingering shower or light rain to the far eastern CWA in the early
portion of the morning.

Some clearing is expected overnight but a continued cold push could
call this clearing into question. Lows will drop to the mid and
upper 30s, cooler if clear skies do end up prevailing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high will be over the area to start the period with mid
level ridging building in through the end of the week. This
will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures.

Short wave will lift from the upper Mississippi Valley into
northern Ontario. This suppresses the ridge and results in zonal
flow over the weekend before another mid level ridge starts to
build early next week. Seems doubtful that the initial short
wave moving away from the region will be able to have enough
forcing to bring a surface front across the area, although it is
possible that a weakening boundary could make it this far east
before dissipating. 00Z ECMWF does have an additional impulse in
the trailing zonal flow which would then be able to move a
front across the area, but that is an outlier solution even
compared to the European ensemble. So cannot rule out some
precipitation over the weekend, but slight chance PoPs seems
sufficient at this point.

There is a bit better agreement that another short wave will
ride up the building mid level ridge on Monday. So there is a
better chance of some showers, at least in western sections,
late Monday. Temperatures will generally be 7 to 10 degrees
above normal over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR clouds will continue to thicken and lay out over the Ohio
Valley this late day and early evening. Expect most TAF sites
to drop to MVFR cigs beginning above 2kft, then drop below 2kft
overnight or earlier in the evening. NNE winds under 10kt will
shift more northerly as overcast sky cover continues through the
forecast.

While the light rain in the southern sections of the CWA may
possibly affect CVG/LUK/ILN with a lower cig early on, any rain
should remain away from these sites. Further north, a sprinkle
may occur along the I-70 corridor between DAY and CMH/LCK
through early evening, but remain VFR if they do occur.

Ceilings will lower more appreciably tonight, with all TAF sites
dropping to MVFR levels, and eventually below 2kft. By early
tomorrow morning, some IFR ceilings can be expected within a few
hours on either side of daybreak.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue through
Wednesday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks