Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250602 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 102 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring precipitation to the area through the weekend. Periods of rain are expected this morning, before cooler air starts to work into the region later today which will allow some snow to mix in. A few snow showers will linger Sunday into Sunday night before high pressure moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Overall thinking regarding precipitation has not changed too much this evening, with additional bands of showers wrapping northeast into the ILN CWA, and a larger area of steady light rain developing a bit further upstream. In addition, the temperature forecast appears largely on track. This adds confidence to the expected mix with light snow later in the overnight (mainly in the northwestern sections of the CWA) but also the fact that accumulations appear unlikely. The area of partial clearing that has been gradually moving northeast through the region has provided a post-sunset window for some fog to develop in the eastern ILN counties, and this is showing up very nicely on GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery. In addition to the clearing, winds have briefly become light/calm within this area as well. However, these factors are not expected to last more than another couple hours, as stratocumulus clouds and a steadier gradient will be moving into the area soon. Previous discussion > Rain is moving through the CWA this evening as a shortwave trough and weak surface cyclone move across the region. As of 3:25 EST a heavier band of rain was being observed on radar across central Ohio into northern Kentucky. This band of rain will move east as the strongest gradient of differential cyclonic vorticity advection progresses eastward. A brief period of reduced rainfall coverage is forecast as PWATs decrease and the trough moves into the CWA prior to another round of precipitation moving back into the Ohio Valley from the southwest tonight. As the second round of precipitation moves in, temperature profiles are expected to be warm enough to support rain. Snow may start to mix with rain before daybreak as cooler air bleeds in from the west across central Ohio. Little to no snow accumulation is expected due to surface temperatures being above freezing. Lows in the middle 30s are forecast areawide. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Chances for precipitation remain across the CWA all day on Saturday as a shortwave trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley contributing to unsettled weather. Increased chances for rain and snow will move in during the afternoon as an area of precipitation wraps around a surface low from the northwest. Surface temperatures are forecast to be marginal for snowfall and snow accumulation as highs will be in the middle to upper 30s. Little to no snow accumulation is expected, although some accumulations less than an inch are possible Saturday afternoon/evening across central Ohio on grassy or elevated surfaces. Snow showers may linger across the area Saturday night as the shortwave trough continues eastward across the region. Lows Saturday night are expected to be near freezing. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level low to pivot northeast into New England Sunday but hang back shortwave to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley. This will keep clouds and a low pop chance of mixed rain and snow showers in the forecast Sunday into early Monday, mainly in the east and south. Temperatures look to be close to normal with Sundays highs fcst between 35 and 40. Northwest flow with surface high pressure building into the area offering dry weather early next week. Although dry weather is expected, clouds look to linger Monday and Tuesday with highs from the mid/upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Mid level flow backs westerly with weak shortwave passing through the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday. Model spread exists regarding timing and strength of this s/w. QPF looks rather light. Will limit pops to slight chance category. Expect highs Wednesday and Thursday from the upper 30s northwest to the lower/mid 40s southeast. Models solutions diverge and therefore do not offer high confidence heading into the end of the week and into next weekend. Northern plains energy drops southeast and srn low rotates northeast and eventually a mid level low develops over the Ohio Valley this weekend. The details in timing and strength have yet to be resolved. Therefore, will limit pops to low chance Friday with better threats for pcpn likely holding off until later in the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper low continues to spiral out over IL/IN. Ahead of the low, pockets of pva will work across the tafs overnight. This will create area of rain which will lift north across the region. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR though 12z, but there are pockets of VFR clouds which could affect the ern tafs, and IFR clouds are forecast to move into DAY around 10Z. After a lull in precipitation during the morning, another area is expected to move back into the TAF sites during the afternoon. This will bring ceilings down to IFR. The pcpn will start as rain and change to a rain snow mix in the northern tafs, before changing to all snow after 00Z. Winds may also gust into the 20-25 knot range tomorrow afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will continue into Sunday. MVFR ceilings may persist at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell/Sites NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites

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