Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312005 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 405 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure tracking from the Gulf states to the Carolinas will precede a weakening upper level trough in the Ohio Valley late today into the early evening. The combination of the two will bring a low chance of light rain in the southeast CWA, primarily residing between KY and WV. Likewise, a sprinkle or light rain will remain possible over the northern CWA given the proximity of the upper trough, increased lower moisture, and cold air working in on northerly winds. Dry conditions will result as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley Wednesday, with temperatures warming for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rain in southeastern CWA is skirting just a few counties and will pivot from northern Kentucky into far south central Ohio and Adams/Scioto/Pike counties for the early part of the evening. Significant cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too far, but a nice northerly wind around 5-10 mph with cold advection will permit readings to drop into the upper 30s tonight. A sprinkle will remain possible in northern sections of the CWA but remains very few and far in-between than the light rain hitting southeastern CWA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cloudy skies will keep temps within a few degrees of 50 tomorrow and high pressure settling over the area will limit any threat of a lingering shower or light rain to the far eastern CWA in the early portion of the morning. Some clearing is expected overnight but a continued cold push could call this clearing into question. Lows will drop to the mid and upper 30s, cooler if clear skies do end up prevailing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high will be over the area to start the period with mid level ridging building in through the end of the week. This will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures. Short wave will lift from the upper Mississippi Valley into northern Ontario. This suppresses the ridge and results in zonal flow over the weekend before another mid level ridge starts to build early next week. Seems doubtful that the initial short wave moving away from the region will be able to have enough forcing to bring a surface front across the area, although it is possible that a weakening boundary could make it this far east before dissipating. 00Z ECMWF does have an additional impulse in the trailing zonal flow which would then be able to move a front across the area, but that is an outlier solution even compared to the European ensemble. So cannot rule out some precipitation over the weekend, but slight chance PoPs seems sufficient at this point. There is a bit better agreement that another short wave will ride up the building mid level ridge on Monday. So there is a better chance of some showers, at least in western sections, late Monday. Temperatures will generally be 7 to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR clouds will continue to thicken and lay out over the Ohio Valley this late day and early evening. Expect most TAF sites to drop to MVFR cigs beginning above 2kft, then drop below 2kft overnight or earlier in the evening. NNE winds under 10kt will shift more northerly as overcast sky cover continues through the forecast. While the light rain in the southern sections of the CWA may possibly affect CVG/LUK/ILN with a lower cig early on, any rain should remain away from these sites. Further north, a sprinkle may occur along the I-70 corridor between DAY and CMH/LCK through early evening, but remain VFR if they do occur. Ceilings will lower more appreciably tonight, with all TAF sites dropping to MVFR levels, and eventually below 2kft. By early tomorrow morning, some IFR ceilings can be expected within a few hours on either side of daybreak. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue through Wednesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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