Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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879 FXUS61 KILN 291751 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the forecast at times into the daytime hours on Thursday. Dry conditions are then expected until the start of the day on Saturday. An unsettled pattern starts to develop later in the day on Saturday and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Water vapor and infrared satellite imagery show low pressure spinning across northeast Ohio this morning. This low will move into and through Pennsylvania through the day. A few showers rotating around the low have already begun to affect the far northern CWA (Mercer/Auglaize/Hardin counties) this morning, and these showers will continue to pivot southeast through lunchtime. Further south, pockets of sunshine will help contribute to some instability, albeit weak for this time of the year, promoting additional shower (and eventually thunderstorm) development by early afternoon, especially into central Ohio. Will continue the trend of highest PoPs situated from central Ohio into south-central Ohio through the balance of the afternoon and early evening. Given weak mid level flow/shear, do not expect severe weather today, however can`t rule out locally gusty winds in any storms. In cyclonic flow, temperatures will likely only rise into the mid to upper 60s today, generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal for late May. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Shower activity will decrease overnight. A few showers will be possible during the day on Thursday, however coverage will be a lot lower and any precipitation is expected to be light. Continued cool conditions will be in place with lows in the 40s expected in most locations tonight and then high temperatures on Thursday in the upper 60s to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The coolest morning will be Friday morning will light to calm winds (lows in the 40s, but some lower 40s possible in the usual cold spots), followed by highs in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east Friday night into Saturday. A mid level s/wv is forecast to move into our region during Saturday into Saturday night timeframe. This will bring an increase in clouds, deeper moisture, and thus a chance of showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday into Tuesday, in a quasi-zonal like pattern, a moist airmass will interact with episodic mid level s/wvs moving west to east through the flow, keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Under a southerly low level flow pattern, it will continue to warm to more June levels, highs mainly in the 80s , lows in the 60s. The humidity will be on the increase as well, making it feel like summer has arrived on cue for early June. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Initial band of showers has cleared Columbus/Dayton and was moving through KILN just before 18Z. Scattered showers were also found near Cincinnati, moving to the southeast. This activity has the potential to produce gusty winds (20 to 25 kt) and also possibly brief visibility restrictions. Meanwhile, expect some additional shower development behind this initial activity, so the chance of showers will return/persist for the Columbus/Dayton terminals into early evening. Relatively weak instability has not allowed thunderstorm development yet. While isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, confidence in occurrence is too low to mention in TAFs and convection will mainly be in the form of showers. Showers wane after dark, and clouds should also begin to break. If this happens, patchy fog may form. Confidence is highest at KLUK where have allowed for IFR conditions late tonight but didn`t have the confidence in fog formation at other terminals to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds turn more to the northeast around 5 kt by Thursday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday into Sunday.
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