Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280814 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 414 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large upper level low will pass south of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper low near the Mississippi-Alabama border will push into northern Georgia today. This system has spread moisture from the Atlantic coast northwest into the region. Much of this moisture is in the mid to upper levels. Showers occurring across southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky will move west, although with a relatively hostile low level environment, the chances of measurable rain will be low. Primary potential will be near and south of the Ohio River. Thicker clouds and the showers that are around today will limit diurnal rise in the southern counties with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Further north, readings will get into the mid and possibly upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Upper low will track to the Carolina coast during the period. The potential for showers along the northern periphery of this system will be in southeastern counties, mainly tonight into Monday morning. Elsewhere expect to see some breaks in the clouds. Lows will be normal in the 50s. Highs will once again be warmer in northern counties where it will get into the 80s while further south will be limited to the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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On Monday evening, a gradually-broadening closed upper high will extend across the Great Lakes and into New York. An upper low will still be in place to its south, slowly moving eastward across the Carolinas. This will be near the end of a persistent Rex Block pattern, which will break down by the middle of the week. At the surface, the pattern will be somewhat nebulous, with no well-defined features over the Ohio Valley. Speaking generally, there will be higher pressures in the northeastern states, and lower pressures in the deep south. Generally diurnally-driven activity on Monday will be largely (if not completely) dissipated after 00Z. Clearing skies and light winds, with dewpoints in the mid 50s, will allow for min temps Tuesday morning in the upper 50s across the forecast area. By Tuesday, and through the rest of the week, the upper level pattern will also become very nebulous over the Ohio Valley. Any strong upper flow will be well displaced from the region, which (describing it as best as is possible) will be underneath broad a broad longwave ridge. Despite a boundary layer pattern that will keep winds largely out of the east, a gradual increase in temperatures and dewpoints can be expected -- with marginal surface-based instability beginning to build. This summer-like setup will be lacking in forcing, so any precipitation chances will be primarily diurnal. Areal coverage will be sparse, so this forecast just features some 20-30 percent chances of showers and storms at various times (mainly in the afternoon hours) on each day from Tuesday through Saturday. In terms of temperatures, a gradual warming trend is expected from Tuesday through Friday, with mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, and upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday and Friday. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will continue to prevail through the period. Mid to high clouds will be prevalent. Cannot rule out some light showers at the Cincinnati terminals, but that chance seems to be decreasing and if it were to occur no reductions in flight category are expected. A weak surface low in the area could make winds variable, especially during the day, but speeds will be less than 10 kt. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...

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