National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 062335
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
635 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure west of the region will settle over the Ohio
Valley early Sunday morning. It will move slowly southeast and
by Monday, a return to southerly flow at the surface will mark
the start of a warming trend. This trend will continue through
at least Thursday as a frontal system develops over northern
Ohio.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies and generally light winds will bring one more night
of below normal temperatures. The setup for some locations to
get sneaky cold is there as the conditions for runaway radiational
cooling look to be good. While most of the CWA will drop to the
lower and middle 20s, a few typically colder or sheltered
locations could drop significantly lower into the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Bumped temperatures on Sunday a bit higher and think that with
abundant sunshine and a lighter and much more variable wind
field there is room to go even warmer. At least not having a
reinforcing cold advection should permit readings to be a few
degrees warmer than today. Nighttime lows will not nearly drop
as low given a weak southwesterly flow, even with clear skies.
Expect a w-e range from 30 or low 30s to the upper 20s or near
25 in the Hocking Hills.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tranquil weather will be the story through the first part of the
long term period as surface high pressure settles into the TN Vly.
With a system passing through the northern Great Lakes, the OH Vly
will be positioned in between high pressure to the south and low
pressure to the north on Monday, allowing for breezy conditions
during peak diurnal heating/mixing hours. Will see gusts to 20 to 25
MPH at times Monday afternoon and, to a slightly lesser extent,
again on Tuesday afternoon.

With the relatively dry BL air in place to start the week and the
anticipation for mostly clear skies, trended high temps a bit above
guidance for the start of the workweek, especially with the
expectation for decent afternoon mixing to bring down RH values,
especially Monday and Tuesday. Will see moisture advection increase
by Wednesday, but that`s when the pressure gradient will tighten
even more and WAA will be it`s most robust. This will occur with the
approach of a system into the mid-Mississippi River Vly through
midweek.

Will see WAA/isentropic lift increase during the day on Wednesday,
with a fairly stout thickening of mid/upper level clouds. Some
solutions are trying to show some spotty measurable pcpn during the
afternoon on Wednesday, but wouldn`t be surprised to see this
overdone/end up more like a virga environment with the relatively
dry air still in place in the low levels (reinforced by diurnal
mixing). Will see LL moisture advection increase from the WSW during
the daytime period, but do anticipate that most of the measurable
pcpn/best rain threat will actually hold off until Thursday. Winds
will gust to around 30-35 MPH during the daytime on Wednesday.

Despite fairly high confidence in a wetter-than-normal period for
the second half of the workweek, the details are far from ironed-out
yet. The details relate specifically to the progression of the cold
front through the OH Vly and whether additional S/W energy ejecting
east into the plains will be sufficient to hold up the southward
progression of the front Friday/Friday night and what implications
that may have locally on a potential heavy rain threat within the
region. With pretty much all solutions showing a large dome of
midlevel high pressure in the Gulf by Thursday, suggesting that
ridging in the southeast U.S. is going to be fairly tough to budge,
the progression of the front south/clearing the ILN FA will
ultimately be determined by how far south the northern stream system
digs into the Great Lakes/northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. At
some point, whether the frontal boundary gets held up in the local
area or is able to be pushed far enough south to clear the ILN FA
Friday/Friday night, the front will pivot back north by the weekend
as the main upper level low digs into the Four Corners region,
eliciting mid/upper level ridging downstream into the MS/OH Vlys
Saturday/Sunday.

High confidence exists in above normal temperatures Monday through
Thursday with a slight cooldown Friday before warmer air builds back
into the region for the weekend. The best rain chances in the long
term period will be Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue. Could see few to scattered clouds
in the 4-6kft level pass through the region overnight. Otherwise
skies will be clear. Generally northwest winds less than 10 kt
through the period.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible on Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...