Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 062335 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 635 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure west of the region will settle over the Ohio Valley early Sunday morning. It will move slowly southeast and by Monday, a return to southerly flow at the surface will mark the start of a warming trend. This trend will continue through at least Thursday as a frontal system develops over northern Ohio. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Clear skies and generally light winds will bring one more night of below normal temperatures. The setup for some locations to get sneaky cold is there as the conditions for runaway radiational cooling look to be good. While most of the CWA will drop to the lower and middle 20s, a few typically colder or sheltered locations could drop significantly lower into the teens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Bumped temperatures on Sunday a bit higher and think that with abundant sunshine and a lighter and much more variable wind field there is room to go even warmer. At least not having a reinforcing cold advection should permit readings to be a few degrees warmer than today. Nighttime lows will not nearly drop as low given a weak southwesterly flow, even with clear skies. Expect a w-e range from 30 or low 30s to the upper 20s or near 25 in the Hocking Hills. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tranquil weather will be the story through the first part of the long term period as surface high pressure settles into the TN Vly. With a system passing through the northern Great Lakes, the OH Vly will be positioned in between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north on Monday, allowing for breezy conditions during peak diurnal heating/mixing hours. Will see gusts to 20 to 25 MPH at times Monday afternoon and, to a slightly lesser extent, again on Tuesday afternoon. With the relatively dry BL air in place to start the week and the anticipation for mostly clear skies, trended high temps a bit above guidance for the start of the workweek, especially with the expectation for decent afternoon mixing to bring down RH values, especially Monday and Tuesday. Will see moisture advection increase by Wednesday, but that`s when the pressure gradient will tighten even more and WAA will be it`s most robust. This will occur with the approach of a system into the mid-Mississippi River Vly through midweek. Will see WAA/isentropic lift increase during the day on Wednesday, with a fairly stout thickening of mid/upper level clouds. Some solutions are trying to show some spotty measurable pcpn during the afternoon on Wednesday, but wouldn`t be surprised to see this overdone/end up more like a virga environment with the relatively dry air still in place in the low levels (reinforced by diurnal mixing). Will see LL moisture advection increase from the WSW during the daytime period, but do anticipate that most of the measurable pcpn/best rain threat will actually hold off until Thursday. Winds will gust to around 30-35 MPH during the daytime on Wednesday. Despite fairly high confidence in a wetter-than-normal period for the second half of the workweek, the details are far from ironed-out yet. The details relate specifically to the progression of the cold front through the OH Vly and whether additional S/W energy ejecting east into the plains will be sufficient to hold up the southward progression of the front Friday/Friday night and what implications that may have locally on a potential heavy rain threat within the region. With pretty much all solutions showing a large dome of midlevel high pressure in the Gulf by Thursday, suggesting that ridging in the southeast U.S. is going to be fairly tough to budge, the progression of the front south/clearing the ILN FA will ultimately be determined by how far south the northern stream system digs into the Great Lakes/northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. At some point, whether the frontal boundary gets held up in the local area or is able to be pushed far enough south to clear the ILN FA Friday/Friday night, the front will pivot back north by the weekend as the main upper level low digs into the Four Corners region, eliciting mid/upper level ridging downstream into the MS/OH Vlys Saturday/Sunday. High confidence exists in above normal temperatures Monday through Thursday with a slight cooldown Friday before warmer air builds back into the region for the weekend. The best rain chances in the long term period will be Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will continue. Could see few to scattered clouds in the 4-6kft level pass through the region overnight. Otherwise skies will be clear. Generally northwest winds less than 10 kt through the period. OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...

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