Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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347 FXUS61 KILN 211855 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 255 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the mid Ohio Valley this evening, bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists over Ontario. High pressure over the middle Tennessee Valley will build in on Wednesday, continuing the dry weather. Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weakening area of showers continue to lift northeastward out of the CWA toward Lake Erie at this time. Winds have gusted in the 25-30 knot range so far this afternoon, and it doesn`t appear likely to go much higher than that based on steady WAA and cloud cover through the afternoon. The latest HRRR shows some resurgence of shower activity later this evening, though thought it prudent to keep a few light showers in the forecast this afternoon based on radar trends. General agreement on frontal passage is the pre-dawn hours in the I-75 corridor, and toward sunrise in central Ohio, with a sharp decrease in showers behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As the front exits to the east Tuesday morning, low level moisture exits with it, so likely will see quick decrease in cloud cover. However, H8 moisture returns quickly, especially to the north and west, so cumulus will be present in the late morning through afternoon hours. Tight gradient will lead to a quite blustery day, with gusts reaching 25-30 knots in the CAA once mixing commences. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Period starts with surface high pressure forming under a confluent westerly flow aloft. While the high makes its way across the SE CONUS, the subsident circulation around this large anticyclone will provide dry weather conditions Wednesday through the daylight hours on Thursday. For Thursday night and Friday, a boundary setting up from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi Valley will bring a modest amount of lift and moisture convergence, leading to a low chance of showers. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to return Saturday. A low pressure system developing under a potent mid level short wave exhibiting divergence aloft should provide a better chance for showers Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will warm from the low 60s Wednesday to the mid and upper 60s Thursday in warm advection and insolation around the surface high. A retreat down to the 50s is expected Friday and Saturday under cloud cover and decreasing geopotential heights before readings rebound back to the 60s Sunday and Monday due to another round of warm advection ahead of the low. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gusty southeasterly to southerly winds ongoing at all terminals this afternoon will continue into the late evening hours ahead of a cold front. A weakening area of showers currently pushing through central Ohio will continue through the vicinity of the Columbus airports before exiting to the northeast. Expecting additional showers this evening, with focus of activity causing MVFR ceilings late this evening into the early morning hours just ahead of the front. Rapid clearing will occur behind the system around to just past sunrise, with the clouds lingering longest in the Columbus area. Westerly winds will gust to near 25 knots on Tuesday as the cold air filters into the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible again on Friday with the next cold front. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hogue NEAR TERM...Hogue SHORT TERM...Hogue LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hogue

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