Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210506
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

High pressure over Iowa will bring one more night of cold weather
under clear skies. A warming trend will begin on Friday with
sunny skies and southwest winds. The warm weather will continue
into Saturday, with a chance for rain late Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Crystal clear skies this evening as area of high pressure from
Iowa to Kansas influences our weather. Winds are decreasing as
this approaches, though still lingering above 10 knots over
eastern Illinois. With time, the northerly winds will trend more
to the west/southwest as the high sinks southward. Temperatures
expected to fall to around 10 degrees over most areas north of
I-72, with 10-15 to the south. Going forecast only needed some
minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

High pressure drifting slowly to the east, centered in IA by
afternoon today. With high pressure reaching IL overnight, will
still have one more night of cold conditions. Skies will be clear
and winds will become light, allowing temperatures to fall into
the lower teens.

Surface high continues to drift eastward Friday, which allows
winds to becoming southwesterly. This will bring warmer air in
under sunny skies. Highs expected to warm into 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Extended forecast period starts out with pleasant beginning to
weekend. Warmer air in southwest flow to continue Saturday and
into Sunday. First shortwave moves into southwestern Rockies
Sunday morning, developing warm advection pcpn into the plains
ahead of it. Chance of rain reaches central IL by Sunday
afternoon, as the upper trough reaches OK/KS. Long range
operational models somewhat similar on timing and track of the
shortwave. At this time, pcpn type looks to be all rain for
forecast area.

Tuesday appears to be less defined, as models have differing
solutions with the track of the second shortwave. Still have some
chance of pcpn Tuesday, but will be some breaks in the pcpn before
the next system approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday. Appears
to be more cold air in place with this system and so some
measurable snow possible, but the exact amounts still unclear.
Will need to watch this system, as it is currently out too far for
exact details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

VFR conditions the next 24 hours, with clear skies expected. Winds
expected to turn to the southwest toward daybreak, as high
pressure settles southward across Missouri. Winds should increase
to about 8-10 knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Geelhart


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