Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 060214
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
814 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

High pressure will slowly drift through the Midwest this weekend,
keeping our dry weather pattern going for a few more days. High
temperatures will continue to climb each day, with widespread 60s
across our area by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Area observations and satellite imagery reveal a mid level cloud
deck sliding slowly SE across the Illinois River Valley this
evening and will continue to gradually overspread central Illinois
overnight. Clouds should persist into the morning Saturday which
will prop up overnight lows on what would otherwise be favorable
radiational cooling setup with light/calm winds under the
influence of high pressure over the region. Only making minor
adjustments to hourly temp/dew point trends, but overall the
going forecast is on track with quiet weather continuing across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Much of the forecast area is clear early this afternoon, with some
high clouds south of I-72 associated with the upper low over
eastern Oklahoma. A mid level cloud deck continues to move south
from Minnesota and eastern Iowa, but has not made any significant
headway into Illinois yet. However, models continue to suggest
this will arrive during the evening, slowly fading out on
Saturday. This is the only real feature of interest in the short
term, as Canadian high pressure continues to nudge its way south
into the western Great Lakes. Temperatures on Saturday expected to
be a bit warmer than today, with 50-55 degree highs prevailing
over the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

A dry and mild weather pattern prevails for the first half of the
upcoming week, as upper level ridging amplifies over the Plains.
Highs will be well into the 60s Monday-Wednesday.

Longer range models starting to come into a little better
agreement with the latter week storm system. Cold front is
expected to slip across central Illinois Wednesday night,
eventually getting hung up as it orients itself along the upper
level flow. Exact placement has an impact on where any potential
heavier rain bands may set up, with the GFS focusing more on
central Illinois and the European model more across the Ohio
Valley into southern Missouri. Timing of the front appears to be
cutting back some on any significant convective potential, but
will continue to mention some isolated thunder Wednesday night
and Thursday. Both models have the front south of the forecast
area by Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

High pressure will provide light and variable winds and VFR
conditions overnight, then modest NW/N winds will set up during
the day Saturday. Mid level cloud deck will build across the
region overnight, then skies are expected to become sunny again
Saturday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss


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