Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 070202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
802 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Quiet and mild weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend into next week. High temperatures will range from the 50s to
60s the next few days, with some locations possibly nearing 70 by
Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation arrives on Wednesday
with chances lingering through the end of the week. Heavy
rainfall is possible across central Illinois.


Issued at 754 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this evening with
ridging extending across the mid Mississippi Valley. Skies have
cleared out this evening and expect that to remain the case
overnight with temps likely to radiate down towards the dew points
which currently are in the mid to upper 20s across most of the


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Surface high pressure remains situated over the region this
afternoon, with high temperatures sitting in the low to mid 50s as
of 3 PM. Mid-level clouds tied to a weak upper shortwave sliding
across western Illinois early this afternoon remain present across
parts of the area. These will continue to spread south with the wave
as subsidence works to clear these out in the next few hours.
Overnight lows tonight will be seasonable with values ranging from
the upper 20s to low 30s.

Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday, though cloud cover
will be a bit more common for most. Upper ridging deamplifies and
spills into the Great Lakes Region as a shortwave trough rolls
across the northern Plains. Surface high pressure pushes a little
further east, setting up southerly return flow. Aforementioned upper
wave will lift a warm front through the area tomorrow, increasing
moisture/WAA and prompting cloud development. Clouds should exit
by later in the day with high temperatures expected to be in upper
50s to middle 60s. Overnight lows on Monday will be milder.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Dry and warm weather persists into the new week as we remain under
the influence of southwest flow. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day with highs on Monday and Tuesday expected to be in the 60s,
and some areas likely nearing 70 on Wednesday. Attention then turns
to the middle to end of the new week as a system brings the
potential for heavy rainfall. A Pacific trough of low pressure will
approach the west coast of the US by the middle of the week,
ejecting a few shortwaves further inland through the end of next
week into next weekend. A surface low will develop east of the
Rockies and lift into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into
Wednesday, pulling in precipitable waters of around 1.00". A warm
front will lift through the area come Wednesday, spreading rain
showers in along it. The system will quickly lift into the Great
Lakes Region Wednesday night into Thursday, draping a cold front
across the area as it does so, resulting in periods of rain and
some storms. The potential for stronger storms looks limited at
this time due to little instability to work with.

The front is then expected to stall out somewhere across the Midwest
Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure centered over the
Atlantic Ocean blocks it from progressing further south and east,
resulting in lingering periods of rain and some storms Thursday
night into Friday. It is important to note that there are still are
some differences on exactly where this front will stall out. The
ECMWF has it stalling out further south of the area than the
operational GFS that has it stalling out over the CWA. This will
greatly influence where and how much precipitation falls across
central Illinois. Albeit, it will still be a wet period.

Models diverge going into next weekend. The large-scale upper trough
looks to spin up a dynamic system over the southern Plains sometime
next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF have big differences with the
timing, track, and strength of this system, though both do indicate
additional rain chances across the local area this weekend or early
next weekend. Let the blend handle this timeframe due to the stark


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

High pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes through the
period. Winds will gradually veer around the dial as this occurs.
NW winds in place this afternoon will become light NE or variable
overnight, then set up out of the SE or S on Sunday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the period with only mid and high
clouds expected.




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