Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 061022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

A front will pass through the area today, with strong surface
high pressure building into the Great Lakes behind it. This will
bring less humid air into the area and keep the forecast dry
through Monday night. The remnants of Cristobal will move up the
Mississippi Valley early in the week, and as the remnants come
under the influence of the prevailing westerlies and make the
extratropical transition, this will bring thunderstorm chances
back to the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with Tuesday night
looking to see the bulk of the precipitation. After this system
exits, high pressure will again return to the area, with a dry
forecast from late Wednesday night onward.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

A front is just to our north this morning, and this will slide
southward through the area early today. No convection is expected
along it, as convective temperatures appear unreachable and a
strengthening subsidence inversion centered around 825 mb will
keep the overall profile stable.

Ample sunshine is expected across the area, and highs should be in
the 80s across the area, with potential to hit the 90 degree mark
across the far southern portion of the area. Blend handled this
well and required no significant adjustment.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will be the dominant
force across the area throughout the short term, and the strong
subsidence inversion will remain in place, along with a
significantly less humid airmass, making for ample sunshine and
fairly pleasant conditions.

Blend temperatures appeared reasonable throughout. Temperatures
will still be in the 80s across the area Sunday, with the 90
degree mark potentially sneaking back into our west on Monday.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Much of the extended period will see a transition from hot weather
on Tuesday to a cooler and drier regime by late next week as the
remnants of Cristobal interact with an expanding upper trough to
aid in the shift in the overall pattern.

The ridge aloft in place over the Ohio Valley to begin the week
will be shifting to the east on Tuesday as the Cristobal remnants
lift north through the Ozarks. Model guidance remains consistent
in a predominantly due north track to the remnants that will keep
the widespread heavy rainfall west of the forecast area with the
remnant low in Wisconsin by Tuesday night and near the south end
of James Bay by Wednesday afternoon.

Scattered convection will become increasingly likely from west to
east over central Indiana on Tuesday with the greatest risk for
convection Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a strong low
level jet associated with the remnants lift through the region.
Locally heavy rainfall continues as the primary threat with PWATs
climbing above 2 inches. Remain concerned that potential for low
topped convection in an environment with deeper BL shear and storm
relative helicity may produce a conditional severe weather
risk...but the timing late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning is likely to rob available instability.

A large upper level trough over the northern Plains will help to
kick out the Cristobal remnants to the N/NE Wednesday while
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass for later next week.
Chances for rain will end by Wednesday evening as a cold front
sweeps east. An amplified upper level flow will develop across the
country with the ridge centered over Texas and the deep trough
over Ontario. This will place central Indiana within a dry
northwest flow regime as high temperatures slip back into the mid
and upper 70s by next Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 061200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 622 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

VFR conditions through the forecast period.

Brief restrictions from fog currently at both KHUF and KLAF should
be gone prior to 12Z. Cirrus drifting across the Ohio Valley will
continue with potential for a few mid level clouds through mid
afternoon as well. Overall...skies will be mostly sunny as high
pressure builds into the region from the north. Skies will be
clear tonight. Northerly winds to around 10kts expected later
today...veering to light northeast tonight.





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