000
FXUS63 KIND 260321
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1120 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

A surface front currently located across southern Indiana will
slowly lift to the northeast before exiting the region by
tomorrow. An upper level low pressure system will bring chances
for rain and a few thunderstorms this weekend with additional
threats for rain and thunderstorms mid-week next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Primary focus for the period will be tracking rain and a few
thunderstorms as they move through the state. A warm front is
currently positioned across the southern portions of the state and
is expected to slowly lift to the north before exiting the region
later tonight as the upper level low pressure system moves out.
The heavy rain that has been ongoing for much of the day will end
after midnight with lighter rain showers continuing through the
rest of the night. Rainfall amounts of one to locally two inches
is expected between the day today and tomorrow morning which may
lead to localized flooding in low lying areas and flooding along
smaller creeks and streams that have been falling. A flood watch
is not anticipated to be needed with the rain falling over a
fairly long enough period of time and long periods of heavy rain
not expected. A weak upper level wave will move through on the
backside of the stronger low pressure system late tonight and will
bring light rain to the area during the morning commute.

Low temperatures tonight will fall to the upper 40s and lower 50s
tonight.



&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Primary focus for the period will be the threat for gusty winds
Friday afternoon and for the next chances for rain and
thunderstorms this weekend. The low pressure system that is
expected to bring rain to central Indiana tonight will move out
during the morning hours with light rain expected through the
morning commute. Gusty winds are expected during the day Friday,
but the severity will be partially dependent on how quickly skies
clear and how efficient winds mix down. Current thoughts are the
best chance for winds in excess of 30-35 mph will be from late
morning through the afternoon when the strongest pressure
gradients and mixing is expected. Occasional wind gusts of 40 mph
are possible, but not frequent enough to warrant a Wind Advisory
at this time.

Quiet weather is expected otherwise from late Friday
through Saturday before an upper level low pressure system moves
through late Saturday night bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Currently, best chances for
heavier precipitation looks to be in the northern counties with
another chance for gusty winds possible as the system moves
through the state. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Sunday
with skies clearing during the course of the day.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with lows in the low to mid 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Split flow regime aloft early next week will transition to broad
upper ridging over the eastern part of the country by the end of
the period. At the surface...a frontal boundary will settle across
the Ohio Valley and oscillate over the region all week. This will
result in a generally unsettled pattern for much of next week with
periodic threats for showers and storms. The only potential period
with more widespread rain and storms likely late Tuesday into
Wednesday as a stronger surface wave traverses the boundary.

After a cool start Monday and Tuesday with highs in the
60s...temperatures should shift towards the mid and upper 70s for
Wednesday and Thursday as the boundary shifts to the north. While
confidence is high in the boundary being in the area and an
overall extended threat for scattered showers and storms...the
confidence is much lower in the details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1120 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Expect more showers overnight with up and down flying conditions.
Then, VFR conditions and dry weather will follow after 11z as an
upper trough moves through.

Winds will become northwest and increase to 15 knots with gusts to
around 25 knots after 07z as surface low pressure intensifies as it
moves over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...White
NEAR TERM...White
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...MK