Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231833

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected time
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Issued at 222 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Rain moves in around midday Monday and continues periodically
through Tuesday. Around a half inch of rain is anticipated for most
locations. Snow follows Wednesday into Thursday as high temperatures
return to the 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Srn stream disturbance over nrn NM will eject out through the srn
plains tonight and shear newd into the wrn OH valley ahead of
upstream kicker disturbance through swrn BC this aftn. Initial
dryness in place across the great lakes will be slow to saturate
with deeper/more vigorous moisture advection holding off this late
mon aftn/eve thus some dampening of prior pops (early) make sense.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Secondary incoming nrn stream disturbance wraps up through the oh
valley late Tue/Wed. Modest spread still indicated aloft esp as it
relates to significant influx of cold air and placement of large
precip inducing deformation zone. Bulk of ncep sourced guidance
takes more substantial snow risk west/north while non-ncep
clustering farther south/east which implicates nw half of the iwx
cwa given certain trending and particularly Wed through Wed night
with colder temp guidance.

Thereafter continued cold with decaying snow showers as deep
cyclonic lakes centered flow thu wanes into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

VFR conditions to prevail for a good portion of the period, with
low level moisture rapidly arriving after 9Z across the area.
Exactly how fast saturation occurs and lower cigs arrives is still
in question, but have tried to narrow down general windows for
deteriorating flight conditions. Looks to occur faster at KFWA
than KSBN so more aggressive stance taken on TAFs there with cigs
right on IFR/LIFR vs MVFR at KSBN. After 18Z rain will arrive and
IFR/LIFR conditions will settle into both sites.





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