Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
627 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Periods of showers will persist into this afternoon across the
area with the threat of heavy rain now diminishing. Dry weather
will then arrive tonight into Wednesday before rain returns for
the second half of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Widespread rain event is slowly winding down across the area this
morning with many locations, especially those in the watch, seeing
either side of 2 inches of rain with some pockets of locally
heavier amounts. Rivers are beginning to respond, but luckily
overall impacts should remain minimal with at most a handful of
rivers climbing into minor flood stage. Dry slot already working
into SW/W areas as we speak, which will allow for a brief window
for lower pops in these spots. After collaboration with LOT and
IND, given the diminishing trends and window for greatest concern
for heavy rain now past have opted to drop the flood watch early.

Well defined upper low over NW Illinois will work east through the
day passing over the area during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Strong dynamics and lift with this feature allowing precip
to re-develop across N Illinois with this trend expected to work
east. Have therefore kept likely to cat pops across northern half
of the area through at least late morning with filling in of dry
slot across the south also expected. Rainfall amounts will be much
lower than the past 12 to 18 hours, but still plenty to give a
dreary day for the area. Winds across the area have remained up
even during the typically less favorable time frame and expected
these to expand and increase further, especially across the west
and north parts of the area this morning into early afternoon.
Greatest threat for wind advisory criteria should remain to our
west over IL. Highs today will occur this morning with steady or
falling temps in the wake of the low. Areas in the SE could see a
small window with highs pushing 60 degrees but if this occurred
would only be for a few hours at most.

Any rain will be quickly winding down this afternoon into this
evening with only small chances that may remain being closer to
Lake Michigan as N to NE flow and delta T`s in the mid teens help
stir up decent instability and subsequent increased clouds and
rain showers. Bulk of this still appears to be over into NE IL but
have maintained some low pops into this evening. At least partial
clearing should take place inland with a lowering of overnight
lows warranted with some upper 30s sneaking into favored drainage
area from Cass/St Joe MI counties S into St Joe and Elkhart
counties in IN.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

High pressure will build in and bring dry conditions through at
least Wednesday evening. Cold night will be in store Tuesday night
with lows dropping into the mid 30s and some areas likely to drop
once again into the lower 30s, similar Sat night. Have expanded
frost mention, but deferring any headlines to later forecasts.

Focus will shift to strong, deep longwave trough rocking the west
coast that will be moving east and entering the region as we get
into the second half of the week. The trough will become
negatively tilted and cutoff a rather stout upper low that will
take shape over the Tennessee valley and then work slowly NE into
the upcoming weekend. Abundant moisture will accompany this
system with overall QPF generally an inch or less. Will let later
forecasts hone in on finer details of this system in the coming


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Dry slot is working its way northward and has made itself known
with an episode of VFR conditions at KFWA. But, showers are
quickly filling in again. I suspect that VFR observation will be
an anomaly, but I will offer a TEMPO MVFR within the critial TAF
period before resuming IFR stratus. Plenty of IFR stratus exists
west of the terminals, and is moving east. Look for showers to
come and go thorugh today, with perhaps a period of moderate rain.
There is medium confidence in the end time of the rain as the
surface low moves east. There is a strong concensus among forecast
members that VFR conditions will arrive to KSBN tonight, but
confidence is lower at KFWA where the stratus may linger a bit


LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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