Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182326
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
726 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries persist this
afternoon and evening before coming to an end overnight.

- Several hard freezes likely this week, especially on Wednesday
night. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s.

- Next chance for rain late Thursday night into Friday ahead of a
cold front. Dry and seasonable weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A post-frontal trough is moving through the area today, with
scattered off and on lake effect snow showers continuing throughout
the evening. Slick spots are possible on roads, especially
overpasses and bridges. Visibilities have pulsed up and down at many
ASOS sites today, with visibilities as low as a quarter of a mile
possible in any heavier bursts of snow. As lake effect snow
continues into the evening, I would expect Benton Harbor,
Cassopolis, Three Rivers [MI], South Bend, and Elkhart [IN] to have
the greatest chances at seeing these potential impacts.
Accumulations in the next few hours should be a tenth or two at most
as most locations have temperatures above freezing this afternoon.
All lake effect snow showers will diminish and come to an end around
00Z. Overnight, clouds will decrease and allow for temperatures to
drop into the mid to upper 20s for lows.

Tonight will be the first of several hard freezes across the Midwest
and Great Lakes region as high pressure settles in. On Wednesday, a
hard freeze is certain as lows drop down to the upper teens to low
20s. Thursday night through Saturday night, the counties with the
best chances for several hard freezes in a row will be southern
Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana (mainly along and north of I-
80/I-90). Flowers and fruit trees have started to bloom this week as
a result of recent early spring warmth. Be sure to cover up or bring
any sensitive vegetation indoors, if possible, as it may be
susceptible to the cold nights ahead.

Cold air advection continues midweek as winds remain out of the
north/northwest. A brief warmup is possible Tuesday as a warm front
lifts north, but temperatures only make it to the upper 40s to low
50s for highs. There will be intermittent sun and clouds around, as
dry conditions prevail through at least Thursday. Temperatures will
be near normal for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Low to moderate chances (20-50%) for rain chances Thursday night and
into Friday ahead of a cold front. Long range model guidance,
especially the GFS, has started to trend colder for the weekend. The
weekend looks to be dry. Will stick with the NBM blend for now
regarding temperatures over the weekend, which has with highs in the
low to mid 40s. Mild on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low
60s with chances for rain/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Radar and satellite indicate lake effect snow showers will taper
off in the next hour or so, followed by improving sky
conditions. Breaks are already noted on satellite and an
increasing number of observing stations are reporting VFR
ceilings. Wind will remain somewhat elevated overnight but
really increase toward 12z Tuesday. This, as a low drops out of
Canada and streaks through the Great Lakes. Precipitation from
this feature passes well north of the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown


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