Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 062235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

A trend toward warmer temperatures and some sunshine can be expected
into Thursday and Friday. A cold front moves through with chances
for rain showers and gusty winds this weekend, followed by mainly
dry and cooler weather into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Key Messages:

* Thursday into Friday will feature warmer temps and some sunshine.

An upper level ridge will build over the area tonight through the
end of the week, while at the surface high pressure settles into the
Southeast US and low pressure develops northeast into the Dakotas
and western Ontario. This will place the local area firmly in milder
southwest flow tonight through Friday (highs near 50 Thu and mid 50s
Fri). The low level height gradient tightens overhead into tonight
and Thursday morning, and again into Thursday night and Friday with
40 kts plus of wsw flow at 925 mb during these times. A shallow
subsidence inversion likely holds through the period however which
should temper gusts at the surface (~20 kts).

The main story outside of the warming trend will be a welcomed break
from low clouds with stratocu already thinning and releasing
eastward. Mid-high level clouds will still spill in over the
building ridge into tonight and Thursday with a trend toward a
partly cloudy sky. Models advect some low level moisture in during
the day on Friday with some potential for clouds to fill back in.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Key Messages:

* A cold front moves through with gusty winds and rain chances this

* Cooler and mainly dry into the first half of next week.

Attention for the weekend will turn to the passage of a deep upper
trough and associated frontal boundary on Saturday. A couple of
waves of low pressure will develop along the boundary, with the
latest consensus favoring a northeast track through the
western/northern Lakes Friday night into Saturday, and a rapidly
deepening secondary low developing well east of the area with little
to no impact. This evolution would result in nothing more than a
glorified cold frontal passage locally with chances for rain
transitioning to lake effect flurries/snow showers post-frontal

A return to cooler, seasonable temps will follow into the first half
of next week as broad upper troughing settles in behind the weekend
system. Air mass is dry in this regime resulting in a quiet/mainly
dry period otherwise.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Clouds are streaming in atop a ridge centered over Colorado.
Locally, upstream observations are generally VFR, save for
intermittent MVFR ceilings. Cross sections suggest BKN/OVC skies
stick around until the very tail end of the TAF period, this as a
warm front lifts through the upper Midwest. The parent low
deepens over the arrowhead of MN, resulting in an amplified low-
level jet tonight and a marginal LLWS concern. Otherwise, surface
wind generally remains elevated until late in the day Thursday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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