Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 310814
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
314 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Quiet weather will continue today as the region is between troughing
to the east and ridging across the Central Plains. This leaves the
ArkLaMiss under northwest flow aloft. A dry airmass remains in place
with less than an inch PW noted off the 00Z KJAN sounding. With
northerly winds, conditions should continue to feel decent for late
May as dewpoints waver in the upper 50s and lower 60s. High
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 80s in the north to
the upper 80s in the south, potentially touching 90 degrees in a few
spots. Another night of overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower to
mid 60s is expected. /28/

Monday through Saturday: The dry stretch will continue into the
beginning of the week, with rain chances trending upward through the
end of the week. On Monday, a broad mid/upper ridge will extend from
the central Gulf and into the Upper Plains, with a pleasantly dry
airmass over our area maintaining the current break from rain
chances.

As we head into the middle of the week, the ridge will begin to
flatten somewhat and deeper moisture previously relegated to the
coast and Gulf will begin to increase again from south to north.
This will allow mainly diurnal convective activity to return by
Tuesday afternoon over the southern portion of the area. By
Wednesday and Thursday, isolated to scattered convection will spread
across the entire area, though still mainly driven by daytime
instability. At this point the odds of severe storms appear low
given weak lapse rates and weak shear.

By the end of the week into next weekend, an influx of deeper
tropical moisture is anticipated, with continued daily rain chances.
With PW surpassing 2" at times, locally heavy rain could become more
of a concern by this weekend. We will also be monitoring the
southern Gulf with an increasing level of interest. NHC is
highlighting a 30 percent probability for the development of a
tropical system within the next 5 days. If such a system develops,
it could eventually have some influence on our weather, though
likely moreso beyond the current forecast period.

Above average high temperatures near 90 to the lower 90s will be
common through the week, though no heat stress issues are
anticipated. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      87  61  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     87  65  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  65  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       86  65  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    85  62  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     85  62  88  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DL/28



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.