Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 210634
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail with surface wind gradually veering
and increasing from a NE to SE direction. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect dry and cold conditions tonight across the region, with
low temperatures in the mid 20s for most locations. No major
changes were needed to the forecast. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Monday: After a breezy day, winds will calm considerably
as a surface ridge moves across the region tonight. With the high
centered well north of us, a light breeze may persist in some areas,
but particularly in sheltered areas winds will calm. Low clouds have
cleared across the entire area. High cloudiness spilling over an
upper ridge are prominent across much of the Plains, but guidance
layer RH suggest these will be quite thin if they do reach our area
tonight. Somewhat efficient radiational cooling is anticipated with
temps falling into the low to mid 20s over much of the area by
tomorrow morning. Dry and mostly clear weather will continue through
the day tomorrow as the surface ridge axis shifts past the area.
/DL/

Monday night through the week...

The weather pattern could be rather interesting this week as a few
storm systems move through the region. First, the region will
encounter shortwave ridging Monday night that will move east by
Tuesday morning. This southerly flow will allow moisture to return
to the ArkLaMiss. Highs Tuesday will return to the 60s in the west
and lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Residents should enjoy these
temperatures as colder air looks to prevail through the remainder
of the week. Cloud cover will increase on Tuesday as well as light
rain moving in from west to east late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This comes ahead of another upper level trough digging south
across Texas. The best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into
Wednesday ahead of this trough and associated cold front. While
rainfall rates may not be high, the area could see widespread 1-2
inches of rain from this system and will need to monitor for any
potential flooding issues. The bulk of the precipitation will move
east by Wednesday afternoon. It is not out of the realm of
possibility that yet again there could be a mixture of rain or
snow as this moisture moves out and the colder air moves in.
Confidence is not high in this scenario but will keep a mention of
some light snow or light rain on the backside of the exiting
precipitation.

The region will remain under general troughing on Thursday which
will result in rather chilly temperatures. Highs should be in the
40s areawide but we might be lucky enough to see some sun to
hopefully counteract the cold.

Heading into the end of the week and the weekend, model solutions
vary as to the expected weather pattern. The GFS shows a
reinforcing cold front on Friday with mostly dry conditions
through the weekend. The ECMWF also shows some colder conditions
but depicts a much wetter scenario come Saturday which would
likely spell some wintry precipitation across the region. For now,
no winter weather is in the official forecast given this low
confidence, lack of consensus in model output, longer range
forecast but will definitely be something to watch over subsequent
model runs. One thing does seem a little more certain is that we
should see temperatures a bit more indicative of winter heading
into the last weekend of January. Highs on Friday will be chilly
in the 30s and 40s and overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s
for Friday and Saturday mornings. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  38  58  49 /   0   3  38  75
Meridian      50  34  55  50 /   0   2  30  81
Vicksburg     53  41  62  46 /   0   4  45  76
Hattiesburg   54  38  60  54 /   0   5  31  79
Natchez       54  44  65  46 /   0   7  45  76
Greenville    49  37  57  41 /   0   4  50  86
Greenwood     50  38  55  44 /   0   3  33  83

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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