561
FXUS64 KJAN 170002 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
702 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today...

The remnant low centered over western TN from Francine continues to
be the meteorological driver for us over the short term: Today the
primary topic of discussion will be a band of rain showers
developing throughout the central portions of the CWA associated
with the remnant lift/flow around the remnants of Francine. This low
has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that
will precipitate out over the forecast region today. Chances for
thunder remain low for today, but an embedded thunderstorm or two in
the overall showery system can not be ruled out. Rain chances look
to taper off after sunset today. Leaving us with continued saturated
soil conditions which will feed our potential for overnight/early
morning fog for the rest of the work week.

Tonight through Friday...

Overall the main concern for the period will be the potential for
fog development in the early morning hours each morning for the rest
of the work week. This potential has been heightened due to recent
rains, coupled with stable overnight conditions. Fog potential
tonight is a bit challenging as we should see things shift more
southward and will have to deal with some mid clouds that will limit
radiational cooling. However, conditions Wednesday morning look to
be more ideal across more of the area to support radiational fog. We
will evaluate conditions over the next forecast cycle or two and
refine this potential and overall messaging of fog/dense fog.
Temperatures are forecast to be in a relatively narrow range with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Expect muggy and mild
afternoons, with muggy and cooler nights.

Saturday through Sunday

The overall synoptic pattern will begin to shift and allow a
moderate amount of drying within the low to mid levels, as dry air
comes in from the Appalachians. This dry air will suppress any
continued fog sufficiently to result in low risks for widespread
dense fog through the remainder of the period. Dew- point
depressions will be quite low though, so expect no relief from
muggy nights. However, with lows bottoming out in the low 60s,
early morning and overnight hours should be markedly more bearable
than the muggy summer nights we`ve had the preceding months.
/OAJ/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Scattered light to heavy rain showers extend along an area from
near Crossett, AR southeast to Laurel, MS to start the period. A
mix of VFR to IFR ceilings exist, though lowest visibility is
associated with any +SHRA. Expect increasing chances for MVFR to
LIFR ceilings by 06Z Tuesday as rain comes to an end. Patchy BR
or FG possible as well. Conditions should slowly lift and improve
after 14Z, and additional SHRA is possible near several sites by
18Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  85  67  88 /  40  40   0   0
Meridian      66  87  64  89 /  20  30   0   0
Vicksburg     69  85  67  88 /  30  30   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  86  69  90 /  40  50   0  10
Natchez       68  85  68  87 /  20  50   0  10
Greenville    67  85  64  87 /  20  10   0   0
Greenwood     67  88  64  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/LP/NF