000
FXUS64 KJAN 302341
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
541 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Tonight through Friday Night...A shortwave will continue to shift
east northeast across the southern plains, through the Ozarks, and
into the Great Lakes region through Friday night.  As this happens,
a surface low will continue to develop and lift northeast from
Oklahoma, through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, and into the
Great Lakes Region tonight through Friday night.  This surface low,
will eventually drag a slow moving cold front into the forecast area
overnight Friday and into early Saturday morning.

As both of these features eject northeast during this time, a couple
of disturbances will lift northeast through the region ahead of and
along this front.  This will bring an abundance of cloud cover,
along with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the
forecast area. The first wave of activity has been slowly been
taking shape this afternoon, and will continue to result in mainly
light showers lifting northeast through central and western portions
of the CWA.  As the system moves closer to the region tonight into
early Friday morning, increasing flow and moisture across the region
will result in more moderate rainfall becoming more widespread
across the entire area.  A few thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time.  While any storm is expected to remain below
severe limits, an isolated strong thunderstorm capable of producing
gusty winds can`t be ruled out across mainly Southeast Mississippi
early Friday morning.

In addition, a tightening pressure gradient over the area tonight
will result in a "Limited` risk of strong southeast winds through
early Friday morning. Sustained winds around 20 mph will exist
across a good portions of the area, with gusts between 30-40 mph are
possible at times.  These winds will ease up a good bit through late
Friday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Convection will exit the forecast area through late Friday morning.
This will result in a lull in shower activity through much of the
afternoon hours Friday.  The slow moving cold front will remain just
to the west of the CWA during this time.  This will allow for
continued moistening of the airmass across the region, resulting in
warmer conditions compared to the recent few day, as highs climb
into the low and middle 70s.

Chances for showers and storms will once again increase across the
CWA late in the afternoon and into Friday night.  As the cold front
moves into the forecast area, another disturbance will lift
northeast along it.  A "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms
will exist across far Southeast Mississippi during this time,
primarily between midnight and 5 AM Saturday.  This is where the
better combination of wind shear, instability, and forcing will
exist. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with the most
intense storms, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. /19/

Saturday through Sunday...Widespread rainfall, with an isolated
thunderstorm, is expected on Saturday as a cold front slowly
advances eastward. Greatest rain chances (PoPs ranging from 60-85%)
will be located along Natchez Trace, east of I-55, and across the
Pine Belt throughout the day. On Sunday, rain chances (PoPs up to
30%) will be possible before diminishing during the afternoon and
evening timeframe. Weekend rainfall totals are expected to range
from 0.25-0.75 inches, which will help a little in reducing the
ongoing drought conditions. Post frontal passage will bring seasonal
high and low temperatures through the weekend.

Monday through Wednesday night...The trough will proceed away from
the CWA and surface ridging from the Southern Plains will build in
over the area. This will result in northwest flow, keeping dry air
and near average temperatures in place through mid-week. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rather poor aviation weather conditions are expected through most
of the forecast period with IFR ceilings due to widespread low
stratus, and ocnl reduced vsby due to SHRA, developing overnight
and persisting through the morning hours. Some improvement in the
ceilings may take place later Friday. Gusty southeast surface
wind will also be impactful. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  76  61  71 /  80  40  90  70
Meridian      48  76  61  72 /  80  60  90  90
Vicksburg     54  74  58  70 /  90  30  80  50
Hattiesburg   53  79  64  75 /  70  80  90  90
Natchez       56  75  61  72 /  90  40  90  50
Greenville    52  72  52  66 /  90  10  70  30
Greenwood     51  72  56  69 /  90  30  70  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/SW/EC