407
FXUS64 KJAN 211943
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Tonight through next Thursday...Quiet weather will persist across
the forecast area from this evening, through Saturday, and during at
least the first half of Sunday. Zonal flow aloft and southerly
surface winds through the weekend will yield warming and moistening
conditions. Look for highs to climb into the mid and upper 70s
Saturday, and then into the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday
afternoon.  Lows will likewise rebound from this morning`s cold
readings, with low and middle 40s expected tonight, and in the 50s
to around 60 both Saturday and Sunday night.

Weather across the region will become more active later Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night.  A closed low and its attendant trough
moving from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes
region, will cause a cold front to develop and sag south into and
through the CWA late Sunday into Monday.  While a capping inversion
will be in place across the area ahead of this front, a wave ahead
of it should be enough to weaken the cap.  Thus, allowing storms to
develop along, to just ahead of the boundary.

Sufficient instability and just enough adequate deep-layer wind
shear over the area, in addition to steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-
8 C/km) with vertical totals in the 27-30 C range, looks to yield
some severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail. This is especially the case across the northwest half of
the CWA, where a "Slight Risk" of severe storms currently exists
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  In this area, hail to the size
of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary
concerns.  A "Marginal Risk" of isolated severe storms exists
southeast of this area, down to essentially a Meridian to Brookhaven
line. In this area, hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind
gusts will be possible.  This potential severe weather remains a
fews days out. Therefore, please continue to monitor the latest
forecast and outlook as both threat levels and timing will be fine-
tuned.

Rain currently looks to linger across mainly southeast and south
central Mississippi through the morning hours Monday morning, but
it`ll steadily exit the area through early afternoon.  Quiet weather
will then exist across the entire forecast area through mid-week.
Some drier air will advect into the region in the wake of Monday`s
front. However, conditions overall won`t change much with highs
forecast in the low and middle 70s Monday.  Then climbing into the
mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday afternoon.  A weak disturbance,
embedded in west northwest flow aloft, passing near the area on
Wednesday looks to bring some high clouds to the region, which will
result in highs from the lower 70s to around 80s, but they`ll return
to the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday.  Lows will follow the same
pattern, with mid 40s to lower 50s expected Monday night, rebounding
into the upper 40s and middle 50s Tuesday night, cooling into the
mid 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night, then lastly only falling into
the low and middle 50s Thursday night. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions and generally southerly winds should prevail at
the TAF sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  78  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
Meridian      43  77  50  81 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     47  78  56  80 /   0   0   0  30
Hattiesburg   44  79  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       48  78  56  80 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    46  73  57  78 /   0   0   0  50
Greenwood     46  75  56  79 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/NF