Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300140 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
840 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite strong low level subsidence in the cold air advection
regime, sufficient overall ascent remains with the advancing thermal
trough to support the persistent low cloud cover in the shallow
moist layer near 850 mb this evening. RAP and HRRR show the low
level thermal trough moving through most of the area after midnight
and taking the majority of the cloud cover with it as subsidence
becomes dominant. Residual cloud cover will remain in the east
around sunrise, but clearing will ensue shortly thereafter./GG/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight into Tomorrow: A much cooler day has prevailed across the
region with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday. This all comes as a front moved through the region
earlier today and an upper trough moved across the region. Cold
air advection has been in full swing today, and despite the
sunshine, temperatures have been in the upper 50s and lower 60s
today. A chilly night is expected, but some cloud cover moving
across the region may help keep conditions better than they
otherwise might be. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s.
Another cool day is expected tomorrow with highs ranging from the
upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south. Northerly
winds will continue tomorrow but overall wind gusts should not be
as strong as they were today. Dry weather will continue Friday./28/

Saturday through Thursday: Dry weather looks to persist this
weekend through the middle of next week, with generally high
agreement among model guidance for the overall pattern through
that time. Between departing high pressure and the next cold
front, max temps on Saturday should rebound to near 70 degrees
across the area. Then heading into Sunday, a digging upper-level
shortwave trough and attendant surface low over the Great Lakes
trough will usher a cold front through our forecast area. Timing
of the front`s arrival means cold air advection may not establish
fully until the afternoon - after temps have a chance to warm up
during the day. Stuck with a general consensus blend of guidance
for the day until the finer details come into focus.

In the wake of the front though, Sunday night through Monday
night especially will be cooler. As post- frontal surface high
pressure settles over the Deep South, nighttime cooling will have
a chance to overachieve with radiational cooling. While no
freezing temperatures are currently anticipated, frost development
across looks increasingly likely across much of the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Added patchy frost to the
forecast for Monday night as lows fall into the lower to mid-30s
with light winds and clear skies. Did not include in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook text or graphics at this time, but will
likely need at least "Limited" threat area going forward to
capture the frost potential. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: MVFR ceilings this evening, mainly north of
Interstate 20, will diminish from the west after midnight. VFR
conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period./GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       43  60  41  69 /   3   0   0   0
Meridian      45  60  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     43  61  41  69 /   1   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  63  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       43  62  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    40  57  39  65 /   3   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  59  40  68 /   7   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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