153
FXUS64 KJAN 091857
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
157 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Severe weather and heavy rainfall threats are being monitored
   for this weekend.

-  There is a slight severe storm risk now for portions of the
   area Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Tonight through Sunday Night...

A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out across the Pine Belt
later this evening with quiet wx conditions elsewhere. Southerly
moisture convection will prevail across our CWA heading into the
overnight period as near term guidance shows a cold front over the
Middle Tennessee Valley beginning to drift southward towards the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

HREF guidance is showing decent dense fog probabilities (around 30-
50%) across much of our forecast area heading into early Sunday
morning. An "Elevated" risk has been added for areas along and east
of the MS river, including several of our northeast Louisiana
parishes. Elsewhere, a "Limited" risk for dense fog will continued
to be advertised for areas mainly north of Hwy 82. If trends
continue to increase during the next forecast cycle, then a Dense
Fog Advisory may be needed. Overnight lows will dip into the low/mid
60s areawide.

Conditions will start off quiet looking ahead into early Sunday
morning as patchy fog development continues to persist across our
area. The fog should start to lift and dissipate by mid-morning. A
cold front will propagate south across our CWA late Sunday afternoon
allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms development locally.
Although low-level shear doesn`t look the best, there is enough deep
layer shear ahead of the front that any storms that interact with
this environment will have the chance to reach severe criteria. In
order to accommodate this development, the "Slight" risk (Level 2
out of 5) for severe storms has been expanded further eastward
towards the I-55 corridor for late Sunday afternoon/Monday morning
timeframe . Likewise, a "Marginal" risk (Level 1 out of 5) for
isolated strong to severe storms will continue to be advertised
across the remainder of the area. Primary hazards will be damaging
winds and hail up to quarter size.

In addition to the severe wx potential, some of these storms will
have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours at times. With
PWATS near 1.5 inches and some storms producing isolated high rain
rates over waterlogged areas, the "Limited" threat for flash
flooding will continue to be advertised for areas along and south of
I-20 heading into Sunday night. /CR/

Monday morning through Saturday...

Storm chances should start to diminish by late Monday morning/early
Monday afternoon as the cold front continues to push southward
towards the Pine Belt. Rain chances will come to an end Monday
evening as the cold front finally exits our area and continues its
southward track towards the Gulf. Monday night and Tuesday night`s
lows will be the coolest with nighttime lows int upper 40s/lower
50s. Quiet weather conditions will persist across the southeast
CONUS though the weekend with daytime highs peaking in the mid 80s.
/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Multiple sites are reporting MVFR ceilings as of 1848Z with GTR,
GWO, and GLH reporting VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings will prevail
across central and southern sites through 22Z Saturday. Ceilings
will begin to improve to VFR status by 23Z Saturday. VFR ceilings
will prevail across the area through 07Z Sunday. After 07Z,
ceilings will start to decrease to IFR/LIFR due to dense fog and
low stratus. IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail across multiple TAF
sites through 13Z Sunday with conditions slowly improving to VFR
after 14Z Sunday. /CR/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  83  64  78 /  10  30  50  40
Meridian      62  83  63  79 /  20  30  50  30
Vicksburg     64  84  64  77 /  10  30  50  30
Hattiesburg   64  84  65  81 /  30  50  50  60
Natchez       65  85  66  79 /  10  30  60  50
Greenville    63  84  63  76 /  10  50  50  20
Greenwood     63  85  63  77 /   0  50  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/CR/CR