855
FXUS64 KLCH 142049
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
349 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged
  period of hot and humid weather.

- Breezy winds are expected again Thursday.

- Most rivers and bayous have crested from previous runoff. Flood
  conditions and elevated hydro flows are expected to continue.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Broken high clouds streaming into the region all the way from the
Baja peninsula this afternoon on broad upper level ridging
responsible for record breaking heat across parts of central and
south Texas today. At the surface, breezy conditions will persist
for the next couple of hours before weakening around sunset.
Guidance is indicating the possibility of some patchy light fog
early Thursday morning, but this doesn`t mesh particularly well
with winds expected to remain near or above 10 MPH. A few areas of
fog will be possible where winds drop, but think the elevated
winds will instead result in a low level cloud deck that remains
off the surface before eroding through Thursday morning.

Ridging aloft and a moderate pressure gradient at the surface will
yield another very warm, dry and breezy day Thursday very similar
to today with the only difference being wind speeds a bit lower.
Friday continues a persistent forecast. The ridging aloft begins
to flatten out, but the warm, dry and breezy conditions continue.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Increasing moisture this weekend will likely result in additional
cloud cover, but the weak ridging aloft looks to prevent all but
the most tenacious of showers. Even so PoPs remain generally 15%
or less. Daily highs will continue to peak in the upper 80s to
lower 90s with southerly breezes. The moisture plume looks to
lift North of the area by Monday allowing clouds to give way to
more blue sky, but with no appreciable change to sensible weather
conditions.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Southerly flow is prevailing and will increase today as a weak
shortwave moves across Texas. Sustained winds 15 to 18 knots with
gusts 23 to 28 knots are expected during daytime hours today.
After sundown, winds will diminish but will remain somewhat
elevated, around 10 knots. Another weak perturbation passing in
early hours tomorrow may result in south winds increasing prior to
12Z.

An area of widely scattered MVFR clouds have developed in central
Louisiana. This primarily impacts AEX, and these clouds are
expected to dissipate after sunrise. Elsewhere, high cirrus clouds
will move overhead. VFR conditions expected to prevail today
within the warm and mixed environment, although a few fair-weather
cumulus clouds may develop during the day. Low clouds and patchy
ground fog may develop across the area after 06Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Breezy onshore flow around 20 knots gusting to 30 knots will
continue through Thursday morning before gradually weakening
Thursday afternoon. Long southerly fetch in the west Gulf will
keep elevated seas in the forecast through Thursday as well.
Otherwise, ridging remains in control and no rain is expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  87  74  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  73  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  73  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66