000
FXUS64 KLCH 242338
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
538 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Prevailing southwesterly winds become light and variable as a
slow moving cold front continues to sag into and eventually stall
over the region. Moist airmass and front may yield a shower or
two, but guidance suggests coverage below even VCSH mention.
Bigger concern in this TAF period is the expectation that both
CIGS/VIS progressively lower to IFR/LIFR overnight and into the
morning hours. Best confidence lies in the southern/I-10 corridor
terminals more likely to remain south of the frontal boundary. VIS
slowly improves through the morning tomorrow with low CIGS
remaining as the frontal boundary remains stalled, bisecting the
region from west to east.

50

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Slow moving CDFNT stretching from near Texarkana to Waco continues
to make gradual progress to the SE, and is expected to ooze into
the forecast area later tonight, pushing to near the I-10 corridor
THU morning before stalling out. Ahead of the front, a warm and
moist southerly flow will continue, with only minimal rain chances
mainly in the form of light showers and/or drizzle expected amid
minimal forcing for ascent. This regime will bring about the risk
of marine/advection fog formation tonight, with guidance fairly
bullish on reduced visibility across the nearshore coastal waters
and along/S of I-10. Having said that, visibilities at coastal
observations sites thus far are not too bad, and some of this
guidance may be initially overdone. Opted for now to add patchy
fog into the grids, which the next shift can adjust accordingly if
observational trends start pointing in the direction of a more
widespread and/or dense event. An influx of slightly cooler/drier
air will filter into northern zones by morning in the wake of the
front, but low temperatures tonight are expected to be well above
seasonal normals areawide.

Highs tomorrow will also be moderated a bit with the boundary
remaining nearly stationary, with highs across interior SE TX
into Central LA right around seasonal norms, and readings to the
south back into the lower/mid 70s. Low end rain chances will
continue with the front meandering around the area, but better
forcing in the form of a shortwave trof is not expected to arrive
until tomorrow night into FRI, by which time the front will be
retreating back to the north. Thus, highest rain chances (mid
range chance) will reside across the northern tier of
counties/parishes. To the south, any marine fog that has lingered
through the day THU will have the potential to lift inland THU
night into FRI morning, again mainly affecting the I-10 corridor
southward, where well above normal temperatures will also
continue. Afternoon highs FRI will climb to the lower/mid 70s
areawide.

Warming temperatures will continue through the weekend with the
front remaining stalled to the north, with decent agreement among
the global models that the front will get a shove to the south
early next week by an upper trof traversing the Central Plains.
How far south it gets and how long it remains there is uncertain
at this time, with models differing in their handling of a
trailing shortwave SW of the Four Corners. General consensus is
for increasing rain chances early next week with cooler
temperatures, followed by drier with warming temperatures mid
week.

13

MARINE...
A weak surface front will stall north of the coastal waters
tonight. Therefore, a mainly light onshore flow will continue
through the weekend. Marine fog formation is possible during this
time period with the moist southerly flow passing atop cool shelf
waters, and visibility appears to be declining on a Sabine Pass
webcam, though this could also be due to some drizzle per light
radar returns. For now have carried patchy/patchy dense fog in
the forecast, and will let the evening crew evaluate the need for
more enhanced verbiage or a possible advisory.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  55  65  53  70 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  60  71  59  73 /  20  20  20  20
LFT  61  73  60  75 /  20  20  20  20
BPT  60  72  59  72 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...50