Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1148 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity is dissipating
with the loss of daytime heating and is expected to be done by
midnight, with just some lingering mid/high level debris clouds
into the overnight.

With clearing skies and light winds, some patch fog will be
possible during the overnight into early morning, especially
places that received any significant rainfall.

Made some modifications to the first period grids based on radar
trends and short term guidance. Another round of scattered showers
or storms possible on Saturday afternoon.



(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

As expected, scattered convection has developed this afternoon in
response to a weak upper level disturbance traversing the region
within the northerly flow created by upper ridging centered over
northern Mexico and the low pressure area designated potential
tropical cyclone 16 just off the Carolina coast. This weakness,
along with it`s notably higher mid level moisture, will continue to
push through the region into the early evening with a few showers or
thunderstorms lingering beyond sunset before dissipating. At the
surface, weak ridging will maintain light, generally south or
southeasterly winds through the evening before becoming variable
overnight. As has been the case the last few days, patchy fog will
again be possible overnight especially where rain occurs. This isn`t
expected to cause hazardous reductions to visibility and should
dissipate by 14Z Saturday.

The northerly flow aloft continues through Saturday, but there
doesn`t look to be any waves or perturbations within it so
convection Saturday afternoon should be somewhat more limited with
diurnal heating being the only real source of lifting. Light
southerly flow continues at the surface which will keep afternoon
dewpoints in the mid 60`s to lower 70`s yielding minimum RH values
around 40%. While a general wildfire danger continues across the
entire region, neither winds nor RH values support the issuance of a
Fire Danger Statement at this time. By Sunday, the northerly flow
aloft will pull a weak frontal boundary towards the gulf coast. PoPs
look to increase Sunday evening into Sunday night across central
Louisiana and interior southeast Texas as the boundary begins to
encroach on the region.



(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

The long term kicks off with an upper level low over the Canada /
high northern plains border with attached front and an upper ridge
over Mexico. The ridge will be shunted further off to the west as
the low sinks south then off to the east. At the surface we will
generally have an area of high pressure floating over to the east
and gulf.

Thanks to the stream of gulf moisture that will be advecting into
the CWA, Mondays PWATs will be right around the 2 inch mark and
lower. That is near the 90th percentile. While a bit lower on
Tuesday, we will see elevated PWATs again. The aforementioned front
will be making its way down and through the area Monday morning,
with scattered to numerous showers and storms spread across us ahead
of it. We are in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday,
with no risk yet outlined for severe weather. Nevertheless, we could
see some borderline severe storms. This will have to be monitored as
we get closer to that day. With the front expected to stall over the
area, another round of isolated to scattered activity is expected
overland on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will be drier as northerly flow becomes
established over the region. Dewpoints will be in the 60s, with a
few upper 50s. From the perspective of someone working outside, this
will be nice, relatively speaking. From a fire perspective, this will
not be terrible but definitely not the best. RH minimums will be in
the 30s with 20ft winds mainly out of the north at 5-10 MPH.

Both drier and "cooler" air will come down behind this boundary. Max
temperatures will be dropping down into the mid to upper 80s early
in the week. Mid to end of week temps will be in the low 90s during
the day and 60s overnight. Around this time, climatological norms
are in the mid 80s for highs and mid 60s for lows. Temperatures will
be above average, however fall around 5-7 degrees short of breaking
any records.



(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Convection has dissipated with just some midlevel clouds
lingering over eastern portions of the area. With rainfall
occurring at AEX/LFT/ARA, confidence has improved enough to insert
BR mention overnight (TEMPO at AEX, prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR at
LFT/ARA). Still too uncertain to include fog at BPT/LCH as
forecast soundings/MOS guidance suggest limited potential, and at
best would expect just very brief intermittent vsby reductions at
these locations. Otherwise, clouds should continue to scatter
overnight, with CU redeveloping during the day Saturday. Drier
midlevel air will filter into the region on northerly winds aloft,
limiting convective potential, but a few showers or storms will
be possible mainly near the south LA terminals in the afternoon.
Light winds overnight will become southerly during the day.



Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Surface high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. will keep light
to occasionally moderate onshore flow through early next week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this weekend. Higher chances can be expected Sunday night into
Monday as a stronger upper level disturbance moves south across
the region.


AEX  68  97  69  96 /  10  20   0  30
LCH  72  92  74  91 /  10  40   0  20
LFT  73  94  74  94 /  50  30   0  20
BPT  73  94  74  95 /  10  30   0  20




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