409
FXUS64 KLCH 192316
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

All indicators (satellite, radar, area observations) point to the
same conclusion: it`s dry and hot with only fair-weather cumulus
to be seen! Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s, but
with dewpoints mixing down into the low 70s, apparent temps are
topping out from 97 to 101F.

Expecting a similar evening to last night: slow cooling trend, but
should feel comfortable outdoors, so long as you don`t get caught
by the seabreeze boundary.

High pressure regime continues into Friday and Saturday with
similar weather: hot as temperatures hit the low to mid 90s, but
dry with no precipitation anticipated.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The long range portion of the forecast remains largely unchanged
from the past few days with our mostly dry and mainly warm pattern
continuing.

A mid/upper-level ridge initially extending from Old Mexico through
ern TX into the Mid-South is progged to gradually shift ewd across
the forecast area in response to a trof digging ewd out of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the East
Coast will gradually shift ewd, maintaining an onshore low-level
flow. The result will be dry and warm conditions continuing into
early next week. By the time we get into Tuesday, the trof aloft is
progged to have shifted ewd, breaking down the ridge and allowing
for the capping to cease enough for the potential for a few
showers/storms on Tuesday/Wednesday. Finally, will continue to watch
what the models do with likely tropical development over the nwrn
Caribbean/sern Gulf for next Thursday...as of now, no concerns on
that front for our side of the Gulf Coast as a sfc boundary is
likely to slide into the region, which will also bring our small
rain chances to an end.

Highs for Sunday/Monday look to run in the lower 90s as ridging
aloft holds on before a slow drop back into the upper 80s by Tuesday
with the onset of better moisture/cloud cover. Post-frontal highs
for next Thursday are even "cooler" (mid-80s).

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light winds and VFR CIGs will prevail through the forecast period.
Only deviation from this will be early tomorrow morning prior to
sunrise when patchy fog is once again expected to develop area-
wide. Most sites should see VIS reductions to MVFR however,
periods of lower VIS are possible. Conditions will improve quickly
post sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of
hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the
weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the
central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about
elevated winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  93  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  76  92  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  93  75  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17