


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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855 FXUS64 KLCH 142049 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 349 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. - Breezy winds are expected again Thursday. - Most rivers and bayous have crested from previous runoff. Flood conditions and elevated hydro flows are expected to continue. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Broken high clouds streaming into the region all the way from the Baja peninsula this afternoon on broad upper level ridging responsible for record breaking heat across parts of central and south Texas today. At the surface, breezy conditions will persist for the next couple of hours before weakening around sunset. Guidance is indicating the possibility of some patchy light fog early Thursday morning, but this doesn`t mesh particularly well with winds expected to remain near or above 10 MPH. A few areas of fog will be possible where winds drop, but think the elevated winds will instead result in a low level cloud deck that remains off the surface before eroding through Thursday morning. Ridging aloft and a moderate pressure gradient at the surface will yield another very warm, dry and breezy day Thursday very similar to today with the only difference being wind speeds a bit lower. Friday continues a persistent forecast. The ridging aloft begins to flatten out, but the warm, dry and breezy conditions continue. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Increasing moisture this weekend will likely result in additional cloud cover, but the weak ridging aloft looks to prevent all but the most tenacious of showers. Even so PoPs remain generally 15% or less. Daily highs will continue to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s with southerly breezes. The moisture plume looks to lift North of the area by Monday allowing clouds to give way to more blue sky, but with no appreciable change to sensible weather conditions. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Southerly flow is prevailing and will increase today as a weak shortwave moves across Texas. Sustained winds 15 to 18 knots with gusts 23 to 28 knots are expected during daytime hours today. After sundown, winds will diminish but will remain somewhat elevated, around 10 knots. Another weak perturbation passing in early hours tomorrow may result in south winds increasing prior to 12Z. An area of widely scattered MVFR clouds have developed in central Louisiana. This primarily impacts AEX, and these clouds are expected to dissipate after sunrise. Elsewhere, high cirrus clouds will move overhead. VFR conditions expected to prevail today within the warm and mixed environment, although a few fair-weather cumulus clouds may develop during the day. Low clouds and patchy ground fog may develop across the area after 06Z tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Breezy onshore flow around 20 knots gusting to 30 knots will continue through Thursday morning before gradually weakening Thursday afternoon. Long southerly fetch in the west Gulf will keep elevated seas in the forecast through Thursday as well. Otherwise, ridging remains in control and no rain is expected through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 73 87 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 73 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 73 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66