000
FXUS64 KLCH 191151
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
551 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty
north to northeast winds are expected today, but decrease in speed
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT has pushed well SE of the forecast area early this morning,
though there are still some lingering patches of light rain across
coastal SC LA per latest radar imagery. This activity should ease
off to the ESE over the next couple of hours or so. With the
exception of this area where some low/mid clouds remain, the bulk
of the area is now clear or seeing only thin cirrus.

Temperature falls thus far have been a little slower than
expected, with readings still a good 10 degrees or so warmer than
forecast lows. Still, robust CAA will continue to drive readings
lower for another few hours even after sunrise, with the JAN sun
taking some time to serve as an offset. On the other end of the
spectrum, dewpoints are falling more quickly than most guidance,
with readings in the upper 20s already nosing into Central LA.

Overall, forecast in the short term remains on track, with an
expansive cold Canadian high progged to prevail across the ERN
CONUS keeping dry weather and below normal temperatures around for
the next few days. TUE morning continues to be coldest of the
forecast period, with some mid to upper 20s now expected over
parts of east central LA and at least a light freeze expected
across most areas away from the coast.

Increasing clouds can be expected starting TUE night ahead of an
upper trof approaching from the west, with warmer temperatures and
increasing SFC MSTR following suit on WED as return flow becomes
established. Still a fair amount of spread in global model
guidance on specifics like the evolution of the trough and
associated SFC features, though a shift toward an inland SFC low
is apparent in latest runs. At the minimum, there continues to be
enough consensus to maintain high rain chances from WED night
through THU, with chances decreasing from W to E THU night into
FRI leading to a dry weekend.

13

MARINE...
Strong offshore flow will continue across the coastal waters
today, with small craft advisory conditions possible over the
Gulf waters into Tuesday morning. Light to modest east winds on
Tuesday will be followed by a modest to strong onshore flow
developing Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system, with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  53  31  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  54  36  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  52  35  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  55  38  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through this afternoon for GMZ430-
     432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05