754
FXUS64 KLCH 122330
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
530 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm and moist air mass will be over cooler Gulf waters that
  allow for the potential of sea fog, especially near the coastal
  during the night and early morning hours through Friday night.

- A robust upper level system will bring an area of low pressure
  and Pacific front across the region late Saturday and Saturday
  night with breezy conditions and widespread shower activity.

- Upper level ridging in wake of the storm system will bring fair
  conditions with mild temperatures and no rain on Sunday through
  Mardi Gras.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A broad ridge of high pressure remains present across the forecast
area this afternoon with a stationary boundary lingering along the
TX / LA Gulf Coast. Given the slack pressure gradient, surface winds
are forecast to remain light and variable through tonight. However,
slight onshore advection is expected. This environment should allow
another round of patchy dense fog and low cloud ceiling toward or
just after midnight. Fog and low clouds will trend into the late
morning-particularly offshore. Much of the guidance favors dense fog
along the immediate coast and just offshore. With light winds marine
fog is also a tricky forecast tonight as radiational components
appear stronger than advection components. Forecast still remains
the same regarding above average temperatures through the range of
the short term forecast.

Onshore winds begin to pickup Friday while skies remain free of
rain. Meanwhile a shortwave trough will begin develop south of the
Colorado Rockies. As the shortwave begins to approach the forecast
area Saturday, south winds are expected to pickup further with gusts
expected to range 15-25mph through the afternoon parades and
festivals. One slight shift in the forecast trends with respect to
rainfall is a later timing toward the evening and overnight hours.
Chances are still favorable for locations west of Acadiana to see
scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder before
sunset, but it appears that the greatest moisture convergence will
occur during the early evening through overnight hours across the
greater forecast area.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Lingering precipitation will clear during the mid morning hours
Sunday to the northeast with winds shifting out of the northwest.
Given that the northern Jet stream is meandering across the upper
48, we do not expect any cold air advection from the north. Only a
slight moderation of temperature and RH are expected at best Sunday
afternoon with clearing skies. Hereafter, upper level ridging begins
to build back in while winds remain offshore through Monday night.
These winds will begin to shift onshore again once the surface high
migrates over the SECONUS by overnight. A warming trend to the upper
70s and low 80s is forecast through the midweek, Wednesday. No
precipitation is currently in the long range forecast. Despite this
weekends rainfall, not expecting a huge dent to be placed on the
overall drought conditions across the forecast area.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals to start the period.
However, light southerly flow and a warm moist air mass will
remain over the forecast area tonight with the potential for low
clouds and fog to form, especially the terminals closer to the
coast where some sea fog may mix in. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions
to develop at KBPT/KLCH by 13/06z and KARA/KLFT between 13/05z and
13/08z with KAEX favoring staying at MVFR. Low clouds and fog will
lift after 13/16z with VFR conditions after 13/18z.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal system will has stalled along the coast this
afternoon. This will keep light onshore winds, with some variable
components overnight along with a warm and moist air mass over
cooler shelf waters. These conditions will allow for the development
of sea fog especially at night and during the morning. A low
pressure system will develop on Saturday over the Southern Plains
that will bring breezy southerly winds over the coastal waters along
with building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
late Saturday into Saturday night as the low pushes a Pacific cold
front across the coastal waters. Breezy offshore winds will then
develop behind the front for Sunday before easing Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A relatively warm and moist air mass will remain over the region for
the remainder of the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are expected to range between 50 and 60 percent. No rain is
expected through Friday, although patches to area of fog will be
possible during the late night into the early morning hours. Rain
chances will be in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night as low pressure system moves a Pacific front through
the region. Hereafter, chances of rain are absent from the
forecast Sunday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  77  57  75 /   0   0  10  60
LCH  57  74  58  73 /   0   0   0  60
LFT  58  75  59  75 /  10   0   0  50
BPT  57  74  58  73 /   0   0   0  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07