Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 231719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021


For the 23/18Z TAF Issuance.



Diurnally driven showers and a few storms along the seabreeze will
continue to move inland during the afternoon. Terminals
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA will be affect by this activity until roughly
23/21Z, then KAEX may briefly see some of this activity until
sunset. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions will occur as a shower/storm
moves through.

Mainly VFR is expected after sunset through the night. Only
exception is for the KAEX terminal where some low clouds and
patchy fog could form before sunrise.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/


Water vapor imagery shows northerly flow bringing in an area of
subsidence and drier air aloft. However, the 23/12Z upper air
sounding still had a decent amount of moisture around with PWAT at
1.86 inches which is at the 75th percentile level of SPC climo,
with mid level RH over 60 percent, and low level RH near 80
percent. Already, radar showing some shower activity building
along the seabreeze convergence zone near the coast. CAMs show
this activity continuing to form and push inland into the
afternoon hours. Therefore, just made some minor adjustments to
the ongoing forecast. Storm movement today should be on the slow
side, so will have to watch for some quick torrential downpours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/

AVIATION...Patchy IFR and MVFR ceilings are occurring this
morning, however conditions will improve as the morning
progresses. Additional MVFR ceilings may occur this afternoon as
isolated to scattered storms develop. Patchy lower ceilings may
occur again late tonight into early Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/

A very quiet weather pattern across the US this morning with a
weak frontal boundary extending from north Texas down into south
central Texas and across the gulf states to the offshore waters of
the New England states. About the only thing of note is the dry
weather pattern persists out west with excessive heat watches
noted for Washington... Oregon and down into California.

The weak cool front that moved through yesterday is noted over the
gulf with showers in the central gulf this am. Temperatures are in
the lower 70s with dew points in the upper 60s and the expected
low in central Louisiana around 70 degrees and along the I-10
corridor in the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Temperatures will
rebound into the lower 90s before the showers and thunderstorms
begin to develop along the c-brz and push inland today. Storms
ending during the evening hours as the diurnal heating draws to a
close shutting down the precip support. One of the things of note
is weak ridging aloft from the west will hold back overall precip
potential through the rest of the week and into the weekend. But
looks to break by late Sunday into Monday. It is at this time an
upper level trof from the north will swing down into the southern
states pushing another weak cool boundary along with storms out
ahead of this system. The boundary will run into the gulf moisture
getting pushed inland during this time with the overall outcome
of more storm actvty acrs the region Monday into Tuesday.

Southerly winds across the coastal waters through the rest of the
week and into the weekend. Seas one to two feet nearshore and two
to four feet... offshore. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday and into Monday.


AEX  93  76  94  75 /  20  20  40   0
LCH  91  78  92  77 /  40  10  40   0
LFT  90  76  91  76 /  50  10  60   0
BPT  91  77  92  77 /  30  10  30   0



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