Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
285 FXUS64 KLCH 131138 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 638 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Nocturnal showers and a few storms will continue moving inland through early Sunday morning. -Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as an upper low remains in the vicinity -An upper ridge will build over the area for the first half of the week, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An upper low is centered over the northwest gulf this morning while an upper ridge is over the southeast states. Locally, a somewhat diffluent pattern exists overhead between these features. Toward the surface a ridge extends from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast, as typical this time of year. This is providing the continuous light onshore flow. With the upper low in the vicinity, a steady flow of nocturnal showers can be anticipated through the early morning hours. As diurnal heating gets underway Sunday, additional inland convection is anticipated. Temperatures will be about normal for the date. Early in the week the upper ridge centered near the Florida - Georgia line will build west. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are still anticipated Monday as the upper low will remain centered off the coast of SE TX, however it will be stretching and weakening through the day. The upper ridge will strengthen Tuesday with pops decreasing farther. Isolated to widely scattered storms are still expected in the afternoon, however with the lack of widespread afternoon convection, temperatures will increase a degree or two from Sunday and Monday. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast with the apparent temps at isolated locations reaching to around or near 108F. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Hot and mostly dry conditions will start the extended as the upper ridge remains in place and generally isolated afternoon convection is expected. Beyond Wednesday rain chances may increase again as a trough of low pressure develops over then northern gulf coast. This will serve to decrease temps back to normal levels while increasing rain chances, however confidence in the overall pattern and where the trough develops is low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed offshore and are moving inland at this hour. High pressure overtop the central and east central Gulf will compete with upper level trof sitting over north central Texas to control today`s convective activity. While this morning`s activity may remain rather benign, there could be a sharp increase in coverage into the afternoon and evening hours as low pressure slides into east Texas. There is uncertainty regarding where, when and how much activity can develop, thus TEMPO groups were included at north and western terminals. LFT and ARA will prevail -TSRA from late morning to early afternoon due to slightly higher confidence that cells will develop within this area of increased moisture. Otherwise, all sites will prevail with vicinity thunder through the evening. Outside of variable/gusty winds near thunderstorm cells and clusters, winds will remain from the south through the period. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will develop from late morning through early evening through Monday. An upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 73 94 73 / 50 10 40 0 LCH 91 76 92 76 / 60 10 60 10 LFT 90 75 91 75 / 80 10 70 0 BPT 92 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...11