627
FXUS66 KLOX 231134
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
434 AM PDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/224 AM.

Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are expected through next
week. A significant warmup is expected Today through Monday. High
temperatures on Monday will be well above normal, with highs in
the 90s across the warmest valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. A cooling trend will start Tuesday with temperatures
closer to normal by Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/312 AM.

Low clouds are started to form along the Orange County coast and
will, pushed along by a weak eddy, move into the LA county coast.
There are also some up slope clouds along the mtns along the Kern
county line, some of which will likely spill into the Cuyama Vly.
Low clouds will also likely develop in the Paso Robles area.
These low clouds will last til mid morning and then after that all
skies will be mostly sunny. Weak offshore flow will develop this
morning and there will be some gusty NE winds in the morning but
nothing at advisory levels. At the upper levels a small ridge will
build into the area and hgts will rise to about 580 dam. The
offshore flow and rising hgts will combine to bring 2 to 5 degrees
of warming across the csts/vlys and 4 to 8 degrees in the
interior.

High pressure will continue to build on Monday, making it the
warmest day of the year so far. 500 mb hgts will to 583 dam
(about 10 dam higher than normal). Just as important, there will
be 2 to 4 degrees of offshore flow from both the east and the
north. There is no upper support at all and this will keep any
canyon winds below advisory levels. In fact, the offshore push
will be so weak that some low clouds will likely push into the LGB
area in the morning. The heat will be the main story of the day.
Almost all areas will warm by 5 to 10 degrees from today`s values.
The coasts will end up in the 70s and lower 80s (a few beaches
will stay in the upper 60s) and the warmest valleys will mostly be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. These temperatures will be 10 to 20
degrees above normal. There is a 25 percent chc that the temps
will be 2 or 3 degrees higher than fcst. Heat advisories are
unlikely since the over night lows will still be on the cooler
side.

The ridge slowly pushes off to the east on Tuesday and more
importantly the offshore flow will switch to weak onshore flow.
This will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to most of the area with
the near shore areas seeing the greatest amount. Max temps will
remain 8 to 12 degrees above normal away from the coast under
mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/326 AM.

Three days of cooling on tap to start the xtnd fcst. Multiple
trofs will transverse the state. Hgts will fall steadily from 575
dam Wednesday morning to about 566 dam Friday afternoon. At the
sfc a 6mb push to the east will develop while a 2 to 3 mb onshore
push to the north also will occur. Night through morning low
clouds will develop and will xtnd into the vlys. For the first
time in a while there may be no clearing at the beaches. Depending
on the timing of the trofs there might be some morning drizzle as
well. Max temps will fall 5 to 10 degree Wednesday, 2 to 4 degrees
Thursday and 1 to 3 degrees on Friday. Most cst/vly locations will
see blo normal temps by Thu while all areas will be blo normal on
Friday.

Still not the best model agreement for the weekend. The troffing
pattern will continue and temps will remain blo normal. A night
through morning marine layer stratus pattern is also likely. Some
solutions show very cloudy conditions with a chance of rain
(greatest over SLO county with the least chc over LA county)
sometime on Sunday. Hopefully this pattern will become less fuzzy
over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1133Z.

At 1016Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1400 feet deep, with
an inversion up to 2100 feet with a temperature of 14 C.

Moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAFs from KSBA
southward with a 10-20 percent chance of MVFR/IFR cigs for
KBUR/KVNY/KSBA/KOXR/KCMA until 17Z. This evening, cig arrival may
be off by 3+ hours and patchy dense fog with VSBY as low as
1/4-1/2SM will be possible overnight.

Moderate confidence for KPRB with low clouds likely sometime
10-18Z, but timing may be off by 2 hours and one flight category.

High confidence elsewhere.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN008 cigs will likely clear
out between 16Z-20Z Sun. This evening, cigs arrival may be off by
3+ hours and VSBY as low as 1/2SM will be possible tonight.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent
chance of brief BKN008-BKN015 cigs through 18Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...23/324 AM.

For the Outer waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) through late tonight. Patchy dense fog is possible
overnight, especially for the SBA Channel and the waters well
offshore of the Central Coast (PZZ670).

Conditions will remain below SCA levels Mon and Tue, before
returning as early as late Wednesday afternoon. SCA level winds
look to be widespread Thursday and Friday, with a 20-30% chance
for GALES. Seas are also expected to reach SCA levels during this
timeframe, likely peaking in the 12-16 foot range.

For the Inner waters, there is a 40-50% chance of local SCA level
winds in PZZ645 tomorrow afternoon/eve. The strongest winds will
likely be across the waters around and to the south of Port San
Luis. Conds are generally expected to remain below SCA criteria
Mon and Tue, before returning as early as Wed lasting thru at
least Fri. There is a low chance (20-30%) of GALES Thu and Fri in
PZZ645/650.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...JMB/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox