Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 120311
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
811 PM PDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...11/645 PM.

Mainly dry and warm weather will continue through the upcoming
weekend. There will be patchy clouds and fog along portions of
the coast each morning, otherwise only minor day to day changes
are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...11/804 PM.

***UPDATE***

Still looking at a very stable weather pattern with only minor day
to day changes. The only forecast change from this afternoon was
to issue a Wind Advisory for SW Santa Barbara County, with
northerly gusts of 45 to 50 mph through passes and canyons of the
western Santa Ynez Range and the western South Coast. Onshore
winds over the interior of LA County are somewhat weaker than the
previous couple of nights with gusts to 35 mph at Lake Palmdale.
Otherwise, gusts to 25 mph are noted in the passes through the LA
County Mountains and the Antelope Valley.

As for overnight cloud cover, mostly clear conditions are expected
across much of the area. However, we are again looking for areas
of dense fog along the Central Coast, extending into the Santa
Ynez Valley later tonight.

***From Previous Discussion***

Strong high pressure over the central US will not move much
through the weekend and as a result not a lot of change in temps
or sky cover is expected. High and low temps will stay above
normal but not overly so and monsoon convection is now expected to
remain east of LA County through the weekend at least. Marine
layer stratus has been confined mostly to areas north of Pt
Conception for the last several days and this is expected to
continue for the next few days at least as onshore flow remains
fairly weak and sea surface temperatures are peaking this time of
year in the upper 60s to lower 70s. May get small patches of low
clouds and fog through the Santa Barbara Channel at times but
overall skies should remain clear. With strong high pressure in
place the marine layer depth will remain under 1000` and areas of
dense fog are likely during the night and morning hours along the
Central Coast and over the adjacent coastal waters.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...11/148 PM.

Next week doesn`t look that much different than this week as high
pressure remains anchored over the Rockies and central US. There
are some indications that monsoon moisture may make a return to LA
County, though the latest ensembles keep PW`s at or below 1.25"
through next week and the deterministic models show little if any
instability at least through Tuesday. The GFS does have better
instability Wednesday and especially Thursday, lining up with the
ensemble based CAPE forecast. So while the official forecast still
keeps some small chances for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday over
northeastern LA County, it really looks like it won`t be until at
least until Wednesday when there is a realistic chance of deeper
convection locally. Ensembles show a slight drop in temperatures
towards the latter portion of the forecast period, likely in
conjunction with the increase in moisture aloft as onshore
gradients remains fairly steady through the period as do heights
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0004Z.

At 2308Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2200 ft with a temperature of 28 deg C.

Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAFs. The moderate
confidence is for the coastal areas, especially KSBP and KSMX
where timing and height of cigs is lower certainty. Timing of cigs
arrival may be off by +/- 2 hours, and VSBY as low as 1/4 SM is
possible for several hours between 08Z-15Z. Further south, there
is a 10-20 percent chance that low CIGS/VSBY during the late
night to morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected at the
airfields through the period.

KLAX...Generally high confidence in the 00Z TAF, with VFR conds
expected. However, there a small chance (10-20%) of low clouds
and LIFR/IFR conds late tonight into early Friday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds for the 00Z TAF through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...11/645 PM.

In the outer waters, expect Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions
with to persist through at least Saturday night, and most likely
through Monday. There is also a 30% chance of Gale Force gusts at
times Friday night through Sunday night, especially during the
afternoon to evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are
likely during the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend,
but most likely Saturday and Sunday.

In the SBA Channel, there is 30% chance of SCA conds across
western portion each afternoon and evening through Sunday.
Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels through the
forecast period.

Across the southern inner waters, gusty west/onshore winds are
observed nearshore along much of the L.A. coastline, locally up to
25 knots. These winds should subside later this evening, and
otherwise, SCA conds are not expected through the period.

&&

.BEACHES...11/815 PM.

From this evening through late Friday night, high astronomical tides
in the evening hours may result in some tidal overflow along with
minor beach erosion. A long-period southerly swell around 2 feet
may add to the tidal overflow potential. The focus of the tidal
overflow will mainly be on south facing beaches of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties. As a result, a Beach Hazards Statement is in
effect for these areas from this evening through late Fri night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Friday night
      for zones 87-354-362-364. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Smith
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Smith
BEACHES...Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox


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