665
FXUS66 KLOX 121754
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
954 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/112 AM.

Breezy Santa Ana winds will continue through this upcoming week,
mainly across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Temperatures will
peak on Wednesay, then slowly cool into next weekend. Through the
week, temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/954 AM.

***UPDATE***

The northeast winds continue to be the dominant feature today,
which when partnered with a build ridge of high pressure aloft,
has kept the warm and dry conditions. The current suite of Wind
Advisories currently expire at 1pm today, but will likely be
extending at least a portion of that area beyond. The tricky part
is just how long to extend, as the winds look to persist with
minimal changes through Friday. Otherwise, the forecast is in
good shape.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will build over the West
Coast, peaking in strength on Wednesday. At the surface, moderate
offshore pressure gradients will continue. With this pattern, two
main concerns will continue to be winds and temperatures.

With respect to winds, gusty northeasterly winds will continue
across the area through Wednesday, mainly across the Santa Ana
wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Currently,
widespread advisory-level winds are observed across the Santa Ana
wind-prone areas and WIND ADVISORIES will remain in effect until
100 PM this afternoon. For tonight/Tuesday, the gradients and
upper support weaken a bit, so wind speeds will be lower. However,
still a decent chance of widespread advisory-level winds in some
zones. So, will let the Day Shift look at that potential with the
12Z models and make any extension decisions. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, winds will continue to weaken and any advisory-level
winds will likely be localized.

As for temperatures, the combination of a strengthening upper
level ridge and continued offshore flow will allow for a warming
trend for all areas through Wednesday. By Wednesday, many areas
west of the mountains will have temperatures in the lower to mid
80s as all areas will be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals.
However, at this time, the forecasted temperatures still look to
be 3-6 degrees below record levels.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/205 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to be in good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, ridge over the West Coast will weaken
from day-to-day. At the surface, weak to moderate offshore
gradients will continue.

Forecast-wise, no major concerns for the extended period. With
the continued offshore gradients, there will be some gusty
northeasterly winds. However with limited upper level support,
any offshore winds should remain below advisory levels. As for
temperatures, will anticipate a slow and gradual cooling trend for
all areas. Even with the cooling trend, temperatures will be still
be several degrees above seasonal normals through the period.

As for rain chances, the deterministic models and their respective
ensembles keep things dry for the area through the 21st. After
that, things could become more active with respect to rain
chances. Until then, enjoy the dry and warm weather.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1721Z.

At 1653Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was surface
based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs. High confidence in winds, except
moderate for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KBUR, and KPMD, where wind gusts
may be +/- 10 kt from fcst. Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light
to moderate turbulence is likely over and near mountainous
terrain, focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Good confidence in any east
wind component remaining below 8 kts through the forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. Wind speed may be +/- 10 kt
from fcst, and wind direction may shift rapidly if NE winds sfc
from the mountains. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...12/851 AM.

Gusty northeast winds (15-25 knots) will continue nearshore
across portions of the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange County
coasts through the week. Winds will peak this morning, then
decrease slightly over the next couple of days. Then winds will
likely increase slightly towards the latter half of the week.
There is a low chance for NE wind gusts of 20-25 knots to impact
Avalon and Two Harbors over the next few days, but chances become
increase to moderate early Thursday through Saturday morning.

Slightly weaker northeast winds will also surface near Cayucos
and Morro Bay along the Central Coast. Winds will create choppy
seas at their peak speeds in the morning and early afternoon
hours.

Elsewhere, conditions will be relatively calm this week, although
seas of 10-12 feet will be common today in the northern Outer
Waters.

&&

.BEACHES...12/124 AM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring advisory level surf
to west facing beaches along the Central Coast (8 to 12 feet) thru
9 AM Tuesday. Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet is expected for Ventura
county west-facing beaches. Isolated surf up to 7 feet is possible
at the Ventura Harbor during the afternoon & evening hours Today.
See CFWLOX & SRFLOX for more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-355-358-362-369>372-374-375-378-379-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Kittell
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox