000
FXUS66 KLOX 042110
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
210 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...04/222 AM.

A warming and drying trend will continue to take place through
Thursday as offshore flow combines with high pressure aloft. A
weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event will occur each morning
today through Friday with temperatures well above normal. Some
cooling is expected over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/151 PM.

Overall. 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will peak in strength over the
West Coast tonight/Thursday then will gradually weaken Friday and
Saturday. Near the surface, weak offshore flow will persist, but
will continue to weaken from day-to-day.

Forecast-wise, no significant issues are anticipated in the short
term. Northeasterly winds have diminished this afternoon. so will
let the current WIND ADVISORY expire. For tonight through
Saturday, the offshore gradients continue to gradually weaken. So,
with minimal upper level support, do not anticipate any advisory
level Santa Ana winds tonight through Saturday. Looking at the
gust probabilities from the NBM, the idea of sub-advisory winds
looks very solid.

As for temperatures, will expect very warm conditions Thursday and
Friday for the area, especially west of the mountains. This
warming will be due to the continued offshore surface gradients
and the upper level ridge. Most areas west of the mountains can
expect high temperatures 12-18 degrees above normal Thursday and
Friday. However, with dry conditions and the nighttime
temperatures not being too oppressive, do not expect need for any
non-routine heat products. For Saturday, there will be some
slight cooling west of the mountains, but persistent (if not a
degree or two warmer) temperatures across interior sections.

As for clouds, expect skies to remain mostly clear through
Saturday. There is a chance for some stratus/dense fog along the
immediate Central Coast during the overnight hours, but any inland
penetration will be very limited.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/151 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, ridge will gradually weaken through
early next week. Near the surface, onshore flow will gradually
increase.

Forecast-wise, nothing too exciting is anticipated in the extended
forecast. There will be a gradual increase in night/morning
stratus and fog as H5 heights lower and onshore gradients return.
Otherwise, skies will likely remain mostly clear through the
period. As for temperatures, will expect a gradual cooling trend
into early next week, finally dropping to near or below normal by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1759Z.

AT 17z, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the
inversion was at 1700 feet with a temperature around 24 deg C.

High confidence in the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds thru the fcst
period. There is a low-to-moderate chance of moderate wind shear
and turbulence through about 23Z today for KCMA, KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the
fcst period. There is a 20% chance of east winds between 7 and 10
knots from about 08Z-20Z Thu.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the
fcst period. There is a 30% chance of moderate wind shear and
turbulence through about 23Z today.

&&

.MARINE...04/155 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across
all coastal waters through Monday. There is a 20%-30% chance of
SCA level winds nearshore between Rincon Point and Pacific
Palisades tonight into Thursday morning.

A shallow marine layer depth is expected to result in patchy to
possibly areas of dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or
less over the northern and outer coastal waters later tonight into
Thursday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox