185
FXUS61 KLWX 080735
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
335 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure brings cooler and drier conditions
through Monday. A warming trend is expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A large surface ridge over the Midwest moves eastward across the OH
Valley today, eventually settling over the Alleghenies tonight. Dry,
sunny, and fall-like temperatures expected today as highs reach the
upper 60s to low 70s.

A chilly night as the ridge overhead brings light to calm winds and
clear skies that promote strong radiational cooling. Almost everyone
wakes up to temperatures in the 40s Monday morning, aside from
Washington DC and Baltimore City where temps drop to the low 50s.
Mid to upper 30s in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley and
Alleghenies will allow areas of frost to develop in some spots.
Additional Frost Advisories may be needed for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large high pressure remains atop the region, bringing continued
sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures slowly warm to start
the week, reaching the upper 70s to around 80F Monday, and low to
mid 80s Tuesday. Overnight lows moderate to the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will begin to progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Wednesday, before shifting further northeast off the New England
coastline for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. At mid-upper levels,
flow will start off rather weak, but riding will start to build to
our northwest over the Great Lakes by Thursday, with an upper low
closing off further to the south over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The upper low will very slowly drift northeastward toward the
Tennessee Valley and begin to weaken by Friday into Saturday.

Skies should start out sunny on Wednesday, but clouds may be on the
increase by Thursday as low-level flow turns easterly and a marine
influenced airmass start to move in. Despite the increasing clouds,
conditions should remain dry on Thursday and much of Friday. A few
showers can`t be ruled out later Friday into Saturday as the upper
low approaches from the southwest, but the majority of the time
should remain dry. Temperatures through the long term period should
run near to slightly above normal, with highs generally in the low-
mid 80s (70s mountains), and lows in the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds
across the region. Northwest to west winds could gust to around 20
knots this afternoon, then remain around 5-10 knots through Tuesday.

VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds are expected on both
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue this morning as northerly channeling
produces gusts of 20-25 knots across the Chesapeake Bay. Slightly
lower gusts around 15-20 knots along the Tidal Potomac River.

Winds quickly diminish this afternoon as large high pressure builds
across the region. West to northwest winds around 5-10 knots prevail
through Tuesday.

Sub-SCA level southeasterly winds are expected over the waters on
both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are currently on the decrease within northwesterly
flow. Winds will weaken as high pressure builds overhead later
tonight into Monday morning. The weaker winds will allow water to
snapback northward. Many sites should enter action stage with the
tide cycle tonight, and the most sensitive sites (like Annapolis)
may approach minor flood stage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and cool conditions this afternoon as high pressure settles
overhead. Northwest winds could gust to around 15-20 mph this
afternoon, especially on the eastern slopes of terrain, which will
produce generally good smoke dispersion. Minimum RH values will be
between 25-35 percent across the area today. Similar conditions
expected Monday afternoon, though west winds will be lighter around
5-10mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below is a list of daily record lows for September 8-9, and the
forecast low temperatures for each day.

Climate Site                Sep 8       Forecast Low
Washington-National (DCA)   52F (1988)      54F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)     43F (1984)      48F
Baltimore (BWI)             46F (1962)      51F
Martinsburg (MRB)           42F (1988)      44F
Annapolis (NAK)             47F (1962)      54F
Hagerstown (HGR)            43F (1988)      44F
Charlottesville (CHO)       43F (1988)      46F

Climate Site                Sep 9       Forecast Low
Washington-National (DCA)   48F (1901)      52F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)     40F (1986)      44F
Baltimore (BWI)             44F (1986)      47F
Martinsburg (MRB)           40F (1986)      40F
Annapolis (NAK)             43F (1986)      52F
Hagerstown (HGR)            38F (1986)      42F
Charlottesville (CHO)       43F (1918)      44F

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534-
     537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/KJP
MARINE...KRR/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP
FIRE WEATHER...KRR
CLIMATE...KRR